Influence of local geology on earthquake ground motion

As a simplified approach for estimating theoretically the influence of local subsoils upon the ground motion during an earthquake, the problem of an idealized layered system subjected to vertically incident plane body waves was studied. Both the technique of steady-state analysis and the technique of transient analysis have been used to analyze the problem.

In the steady-state analysis, a recursion formula has been derived for obtaining the response of a layered system to sinusoidally steady-state input. Several conclusions are drawn concerning the nature of the amplification spectrum of a nonviscous layered system having its layer stiffnesses increasing with depth. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effect of layer parameters on the amplification spectrum of a layered system.

In the transient analysis, two modified shear beam models have been established for obtaining approximately the response of a layered system to earthquake-like excitation. The method of continuous modal analysis was adopted for approximate analysis of the models, with energy dissipation in the layers, if any, taken into account. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy of the models and the effect of a layered system in modifying the input motion.

Conditions are established, under which the theory is applicable to predict the influence of local subsoils on the ground motion during an earthquake. To demonstrate the applicability of the models to actual cases, three examples of actually recorded earthquake events are examined. It is concluded that significant modification of the incoming seismic waves, as predicted by the theory, is likely to occur in well defined soft subsoils during an earthquake, provided that certain conditions concerning the nature of the incoming seismic waves are satisfied.

Anatomical and developmental patterns of interleukin-2 gene expression in the mouse: analysis of IL-2 expressing cells and partial characterization of interactions involved in mediating IL-2 gene expression in vivo

Interleukin-2 (IL-2) is an important mediator in the vertebrate immune system. IL-2 is a potent growth factor that mature T lymphocytes use as a proliferation signal and the production of IL-2 is crucial for the clonal expansion of antigen-specific T cells in the primary immune response. IL-2 driven proliferation is dependent on the interaction of the lymphokine with its cognate multichain receptor. IL-2 expression is induced only upon stimulation and transcriptional activation of the IL-2 gene relies extensively on the coordinate interaction of numerous inducible and constitutive trans-acting factors. Over the past several years, thousands of papers have been published regarding molecular and cellular aspects of IL-2 gene expression and IL-2 function. The vast majority of these reports describe work that has been carried out in vitro. However, considerably less is known about control of IL-2 gene expression and IL-2 function in vivo.

To gain new insight into the regulation of IL-2 gene expression in vivo, anatomical and developmental patterns of IL-2 gene expression in the mouse were established by employing in situ hybridization and immunohistochemical staining methodologies to tissue sections generated from normal mice and mutant animals in which T -cell development was perturbed. Results from these studies revealed several interesting aspects of IL-2 gene expression, such as (1) induction of IL-2 gene expression and protein synthesis in the thymus, the primary site of T-cell development in the body, (2) cell-type specificity of IL-2 gene expression in vivo, (3) participation of IL-2 in the extrathymic expansion of mature T cells in particular tissues, independent of an acute immune response to foreign antigen, (4) involvement of IL-2 in maintaining immunologic balance in the mucosal immune system, and (5) potential function of IL-2 in early events associated with hematopoiesis.

Extensive analysis of IL-2 mRNA accumulation and protein production in the murine thymus at various stages of development established the existence of two classes of intrathymic IL-2 producing cells. One class of intrathymic IL-2 producers was found exclusively in the fetal thymus. Cells belonging to this subset were restricted to the outermost region of the thymus. IL-2 expression in the fetal thymus was highly transient; a dramatic peak ofiL-2 mRNA accumulation was identified at day 14.5 of gestation and maximal IL-2 protein production was observed 12 hours later, after which both IL-2 mRNA and protein levels rapidly decreased. Significantly, the presence of IL-2 expressing cells in the day 14-15 fetal thymus was not contingent on the generation of T-cell receptor (TcR) positive cells. The second class of IL-2 producing cells was also detectable in the fetal thymus (cells found in this class represented a minority subset of IL-2 producers in the fetal thymus) but persist in the thymus during later stages of development and after birth. Intrathymic IL-2 producers in postnatal animals were located in the subcapsular region and cortex, indicating that these cells reside in the same areas where immature T cells are consigned. The frequency of IL-2 expressing cells in the postnatal thymus was extremely low, indicating that induction of IL-2 expression and protein synthesis are indicative of a rare activation event. Unlike the fetal class of intrathymic IL-2 producers, the presence of IL-2 producing cells in the postnatal thymus was dependent on to the generation of TcR+ cells. Subsequent examination of intrathymic IL-2 production in mutant postnatal mice unable to produce either αβ or γδ T cells showed that postnatal IL-2 producers in the thymus belong to both αβ and γδ lineages. Additionally, further studies indicated that IL-2 synthesis by immature αβ -T cells depends on the expression of bonafide TcR αβ-heterodimers. Taken altogether, IL-2 production in the postnatal thymus relies on the generation of αβ or γδ-TcR^+ cells and induction of IL-2 protein synthesis can be linked to an activation event mediated via the TcR.

With regard to tissue specificity of IL-2 gene expression in vivo, analysis of whole body sections obtained from normal neonatal mouse pups by in situ hybridization demonstrated that IL-2 mRNA^+ cells were found in both lymphoid and nonlymphoid tissues with which T cells are associated, such as the thymus (as described above), dermis and gut. Tissues devoid of IL-2 mRNA^+ cells included brain, heart, lung, liver, stomach, spine, spinal cord, kidney, and bladder. Additional analysis of isolated tissues taken from older animals revealed that IL-2 expression was undetectable in bone marrow and in nonactivated spleen and lymph nodes. Thus, it appears that extrathymic IL-2 expressing cells in nonimmunologically challenged animals are relegated to particular epidermal and epithelial tissues in which characterized subsets of T cells reside and thatinduction of IL-2 gene expression associated with these tissues may be a result of T-cell activation therein.

Based on the neonatal in situ hybridization results, a detailed investigation into possible induction of IL-2 expression resulting in IL-2 protein synthesis in the skin and gut revealed that IL-2 expression is induced in the epidermis and intestine and IL-2 protein is available to drive cell proliferation of resident cells and/or participate in immune function in these tissues. Pertaining to IL-2 expression in the skin, maximal IL-2 mRNA accumulation and protein production were observed when resident Vγ_3^+ T-cell populations were expanding. At this age, both IL-2 mRNA^+ cells and IL-2 protein production were intimately associated with hair follicles. Likewise, at this age a significant number of CD3ε^+ cells were also found in association with follicles. The colocalization of IL-2 expression and CD3ε^+ cells suggests that IL-2 expression is induced when T cells are in contact with hair follicles. In contrast, neither IL-2 mRNA nor IL-2 protein were readily detected once T-cell density in the skin reached steady-state proportions. At this point, T cells were no longer found associated with hair follicles but were evenly distributed throughout the epidermis. In addition, IL-2 expression in the skin was contingent upon the presence of mature T cells therein and induction of IL-2 protein synthesis in the skin did not depend on the expression of a specific TcR on resident T cells. These newly disclosed properties of IL-2 expression in the skin indicate that IL-2 may play an additional role in controlling mature T-cell proliferation by participating in the extrathymic expansion of T cells, particularly those associated with the epidermis.

Finally, regarding IL-2 expression and protein synthesis in the gut, IL-2 producing cells were found associated with the lamina propria of neonatal animals and gut-associated IL-2 production persisted throughout life. In older animals, the frequency of IL-2 producing cells in the small intestine was not identical to that in the large intestine and this difference may reflect regional specialization of the mucosal immune system in response to enteric antigen. Similar to other instances of IL-2 gene expression in vivo, a failure to generate mature T cells also led to an abrogation of IL-2 protein production in the gut. The presence of IL-2 producing cells in the neonatal gut suggested that these cells may be generated during fetal development. Examination of the fetal gut to determine the distribution of IL-2 producing cells therein indicated that there was a tenfold increase in the number of gut-associated IL-2 producers at day 20 of gestation compared to that observed four days earlier and there was little difference between the frequency of IL-2 producing cells in prenatal versus neonatal gut. The origin of these fetally-derived IL-2 producing cells is unclear. Prior to the immigration of IL-2 inducible cells to the fetal gut and/or induction of IL-2 expression therein, IL-2 protein was observed in the fetal liver and fetal omentum, as well as the fetal thymus. Considering that induction of IL-2 protein synthesis may be an indication of future functional capability, detection of IL-2 producing cells in the fetal liver and fetal omentum raises the possibility that IL-2 producing cells in the fetal gut may be extrathymic in origin and IL-2 producing cells in these fetal tissues may not belong solely to the T lineage. Overall, these results provide increased understanding of the nature of IL-2 producing cells in the gut and how the absence of IL-2 production therein and in fetal hematopoietic tissues can result in the acute pathology observed in IL-2 deficient animals.

Finding needles in the haystack : a search for AM CVn systems using the Palomar Transient Factory

The AM CVn systems are a rare class of ultra-compact astrophysical binaries. With orbital periods of under an hour and as short as five minutes, they are among the closest known binary star systems and their evolution has direct relevance to the type Ia supernova rate and the white dwarf binary population. However, their faint and rare nature has made population studies of these systems difficult and several studies have found conflicting results.

I undertook a survey for AM CVn systems using the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) astrophysical synoptic survey by exploiting the "outbursts" these systems undergo. Such events result in an increase in luminosity by a factor of up to two-hundred and are detectable in time-domain photometric data of AM CVn systems. My search resulted in the discovery of eight new systems, over 20% of the current known population. More importantly, this search was done in a systematic fashion, which allows for a population study properly accounting for biases.

Apart from the discovery of new systems, I used the time-domain data from the PTF and other synoptic surveys to better understand the long-term behavior of these systems. This analysis of the photometric behavior of the majority of known AM CVn systems has shown changes in their behavior at longer time scales than have previously been observed. This has allowed me to find relationships between the outburst properties of an individual system and its orbital period.

Even more importantly, the systematically selected sample together with these properties have allowed me to conduct a population study of the AM CVn systems. I have shown that the latest published estimates of the AM CVn system population, a factor of fifty below theoretical estimates, are consistent with the sample of systems presented here. This is particularly noteworthy since my population study is most sensitive to a different orbital period regime than earlier surveys. This confirmation of the population density will allow the AM CVn systems population to be used in the study of other areas of astrophysics.

Modeling and analysis of hysteretic structural behavior

For damaging response, the force-displacement relationship of a structure is highly nonlinear and history-dependent. For satisfactory analysis of such behavior, it is important to be able to characterize and to model the phenomenon of hysteresis accurately. A number of models have been proposed for response studies of hysteretic structures, some of which are examined in detail in this thesis. There are two popular classes of models used in the analysis of curvilinear hysteretic systems. The first is of the distributed element or assemblage type, which models the physical behavior of the system by using well-known building blocks. The second class of models is of the differential equation type, which is based on the introduction of an extra variable to describe the history dependence of the system.

Owing to their mathematical simplicity, the latter models have been used extensively for various applications in structural dynamics, most notably in the estimation of the response statistics of hysteretic systems subjected to stochastic excitation. But the fundamental characteristics of these models are still not clearly understood. A response analysis of systems using both the Distributed Element model and the differential equation model when subjected to a variety of quasi-static and dynamic loading conditions leads to the following conclusion: Caution must be exercised when employing the models belonging to the second class in structural response studies as they can produce misleading results.

The Massing's hypothesis, originally proposed for steady-state loading, can be extended to general transient loading as well, leading to considerable simplification in the analysis of the Distributed Element models. A simple, nonparametric identification technique is also outlined, by means of which an optimal model representation involving one additional state variable is determined for hysteretic systems.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.