Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.

Design of a sea-level tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz

The devastating impact of the Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004, raised the question for scientists of how to forecast a tsunami threat. In 2005, the IOC-UNESCO XXIII assembly decided to implement a global tsunami warning system to cover the regions that were not yet protected, namely the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean and the North East Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (the NEAM region). Within NEAM, the Gulf of Cadiz is the more sensitive area, with an important record of devastating historical events. The objective of this paper is to present a preliminary design for a reliable tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz, based on a network of sea-level observatories. The tsunamigenic potential of this region has been revised in order to define the active tectonic structures. Tsunami hydrodynamic modeling and GIS technology have been used to identify the appropriate locations for the minimum number of sea-level stations. Results show that 3 tsunameters are required as the minimum number of stations necessary to assure an acceptable protection to the large coastal population in the Gulf of Cadiz. In addition, 29 tide gauge stations could be necessary to fully assess the effects of a tsunami along the affected coasts of Portugal, Spain and Morocco.

Survival of adult AIDS patients in a reference hospital of a metropolitan area in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of sociodemographic, clinical, and epidemiological factors in AIDS patients survival in a reference hospital. METHODS: A sample of 502 adult AIDS patients out of 1,494 AIDS cases registered in a hospital in Fortaleza, Brazil, was investigated between 1986 and 1998. Sixteen cases were excluded due to death at the moment of the AIDS diagnosis and 486 were analyzed in the study. Socioeconomic and clinical epidemiological were the variables studied. Statistical analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Three hundred and sixty two out of the 486 patients studied took at least one antiretroviral drug and their survival was ten times longer than those who did not take any drug (746 and 79 days, respectively, p <0.001). Patients who took two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus protease inhibitor were found to have higher survival rates (p <0.001). The risk of dying in the first year was significantly lower for patients who took NRTI and a protease inhibitor compared to those who took only NRTI. In addition, this risk was much lower from the second year on (0.10; 95%CI: 0.42-0.23). The risk of dying in the first year was significantly higher for less educated patients (15.58; 95%CI: 6.64-36.58) and those who had two or more systemic diseases (3.03; 95%CI: 1.74-5.25). After the first year post-diagnosis, there was no risk difference for these factors. CONCLUSIONS: Higher education revealed to exert a significant influence in the first-year survival. Antiretroviral drugs had a greater impact in the survival from the second year on. A more aggressive antiretroviral therapy started earlier could benefit those patients.

Performance of coastal sea-defense infrastructure at El Jadida (Morocco) against tsunami threat: lessons learned from the Japanese 11 March 2011 tsunami

This paper seeks to investigate the effectiveness of sea-defense structures in preventing/reducing the tsunami overtopping as well as evaluating the resulting tsunami impact at El Jadida, Morocco. Different tsunami wave conditions are generated by considering various earthquake scenarios of magnitudes ranging from M-w = 8.0 to M-w = 8.6. These scenarios represent the main active earthquake faults in the SW Iberia margin and are consistent with two past events that generated tsunamis along the Atlantic coast of Morocco. The behavior of incident tsunami waves when interacting with coastal infrastructures is analyzed on the basis of numerical simulations of near-shore tsunami waves' propagation. Tsunami impact at the affected site is assessed through computing inundation and current velocity using a high-resolution digital terrain model that incorporates bathymetric, topographic and coastal structures data. Results, in terms of near-shore tsunami propagation snapshots, waves' interaction with coastal barriers, and spatial distributions of flow depths and speeds, are presented and discussed in light of what was observed during the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. Predicted results show different levels of impact that different tsunami wave conditions could generate in the region. Existing coastal barriers around the El Jadida harbour succeeded in reflecting relatively small waves generated by some scenarios, but failed in preventing the overtopping caused by waves from others. Considering the scenario highly impacting the El Jadida coast, significant inundations are computed at the sandy beach and unprotected areas. The modeled dramatic tsunami impact in the region shows the need for additional tsunami standards not only for sea-defense structures but also for the coastal dwellings and houses to provide potential in-place evacuation.

Temporal and spatial variability of fin whale's (Balaenoptera physalus) distribution in the Pelagos Sanctuary: Northwestern Mediterranean Sea

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 20 de Março de 2014, Universidade dos Açores.

Deep-Sea ecosystem model of the Condor seamount

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 25 de Julho 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

Role of the wider Azores region as a nursery ground for North Atlantic blue shark (Prionace glauca)

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Ecologia Marinha)

Lipid extractions from marine deep-sea invertebrates : modifications to the Bligh & Dyer method to increase lipid yields

The deep-sea environment is difficult to sample, and often only small quantities of samples can be obtained when using less destructive methods than dredging. When working with marine animals that are difficult to sample and with limited quantities of tissue to extract lipids, it is essential to ensure that the used method extracts the maximum possible quantity of lipids. This study evaluates the efficiency of introducing modifications to the method originally described by Bligh & Dyer (1959). This lipid extraction method is broadly used with modifications, although these usually lack proper description and evaluation of increment in lipids. In this study we consider the improvement in terms of amount of lipids extracted by changing the method. Lipid content was determined by gravimetric measurements in eight invertebrates from the deep-sea, including deep-sea hydrothermal vents animals, using three different approaches. Results show increases of 14% to 30% in lipid contents obtained from hydrothermal vent invertebrate tissues and whole animals by placing the samples in methanol for 24 hours before applying the Bligh & Dyer mixture. Efficiency of the extractions using frozen and freeze-dried samples was also compared. For large sponges, the use of lyophilized materials resulted in increases of 3 to 7 times more lipids extracted when compared with extractions using frozen samples.

A sea urchin (Diadema africanum Rodriguez et al., 2013) and a pipe fish (Syngnathus phlegon Risso, 1827) : two new records for the Azores

Maciel & Costa (2010) reported the presence of 17 species of costal sea urchins (Echinoidea) in the Azores, while Porteiro et al. (2010) reported six species of pipefishes (Syngnathidae) for the area. During SCUBA diving at Santa Maria Island, the first author detected a sea urchin and a pipe fish which are new to the marine fauna of the Azores.

Anthropogenic impacts in the deep sea of the Azores : fishing and litter

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências do Mar, especialidade em Ecologia Marinha.

Hook removal from a loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) : Report of a tricky surgery under difficult conditions.

A sub adult Caretta caretta was found on the 23rd August, 2014 ca. 16 nautical miles south off S. Miguel Island, Azores (Northeast Atlantic), with a large pelagic trawl hook inside its mouth. The individual was kept in a basin of sea water and sent by boat to Terceira Island following instructions by the Azores Regional Government via the Environmental Authority in order to be examined by the author and, if possible, undergo the necessary hook removal procedures. In this note, we describe the surgical procedures and how the turtle was evaluated both pre- and post-surgery.

Records of predatory, con-specific and human induced mauls on fish from the Northeast Atlantic and Black Sea

Present study aims to describe records of mauled and con-specific injures in various fish inhabiting different environment and to discuss possible impacts on fish behavior and ontogenesis. The fish specimens were collected from the Black Sea and Azores Islands (NE Atlantic). Individuals of European flounder, Pleuronectes flesus, common stingray, Dasyatis pastinaca and turbot, Scophthalmus maximus with missing dorsal and caudal fins and flesh, were found in the Black Sea. Specimens with severe mauls of the ocean sunfish, Mola mola, almaco jack, Seriola rivoliana and sargo, Diplodus sargus were recorded from the Azores Islands. All of them were caught alive and survived severe mauls caused by predators or by accidents with propellers, fishing nets. The NE Atlantic records, although possibly caused by natural predation, are more probably than not the result of negative interactions with human activity. Numerous records of mauled fish species from both regions show that the problem with adverse effects of fisheries is quite important. Predatory and con-specific injuries obviously are compatible with basic fish vital functions of described cases. The problem with negative anthropogenic interactions seems to be insufficiently investigated and need more attention by responsible managers and decision makers.

Survival of a cohort of women with cervical cancer diagnosed in a Brazilian cancer center

OBJECTIVE: To assess overall survival of women with cervical cancer and describe prognostic factors associated. METHODS: A total of 3,341 cases of invasive cervical cancer diagnosed at the Brazilian Cancer Institute, Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil, between 1999 and 2004 were selected. Clinical and pathological characteristics and follow-up data were collected. There were performed a survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and a multivariate analysis through Cox model. RESULTS: Of all cases analyzed, 68.3% had locally advanced disease at the time of diagnosis. The 5-year overall survival was 48%. After multivariate analysis, tumor staging at diagnosis was the single variable significantly associated with prognosis (p<0.001). There was seen a dose-response relationship between mortality and clinical staging, ranging from 27.8 to 749.6 per 1,000 cases-year in women stage I and IV, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that early detection through prevention programs is crucial to increase cervical cancer survival.