Transdimensional sequential Monte Carlo using variational Bayes — SMCVB

A new transdimensional Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm called SM- CVB is proposed. In an SMC approach, a weighted sample of particles is generated from a sequence of probability distributions which ‘converge’ to the target distribution of interest, in this case a Bayesian posterior distri- bution. The approach is based on the use of variational Bayes to propose new particles at each iteration of the SMCVB algorithm in order to target the posterior more efficiently. The variational-Bayes-generated proposals are not limited to a fixed dimension. This means that the weighted particle sets that arise can have varying dimensions thereby allowing us the option to also estimate an appropriate dimension for the model. This novel algorithm is outlined within the context of finite mixture model estimation. This pro- vides a less computationally demanding alternative to using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels within an SMC approach. We illustrate these ideas in a simulated data analysis and in applications.

Using decision trees to understand structure in missing data

Objectives Demonstrate the application of decision trees – classification and regression trees (CARTs), and their cousins, boosted regression trees (BRTs) – to understand structure in missing data. Setting Data taken from employees at three different industry sites in Australia. Participants 7915 observations were included. Materials and Methods The approach was evaluated using an occupational health dataset comprising results of questionnaires, medical tests, and environmental monitoring. Statistical methods included standard statistical tests and the ‘rpart’ and ‘gbm’ packages for CART and BRT analyses, respectively, from the statistical software ‘R’. A simulation study was conducted to explore the capability of decision tree models in describing data with missingness artificially introduced. Results CART and BRT models were effective in highlighting a missingness structure in the data, related to the Type of data (medical or environmental), the site in which it was collected, the number of visits and the presence of extreme values. The simulation study revealed that CART models were able to identify variables and values responsible for inducing missingness. There was greater variation in variable importance for unstructured compared to structured missingness. Discussion Both CART and BRT models were effective in describing structural missingness in data. CART models may be preferred over BRT models for exploratory analysis of missing data, and selecting variables important for predicting missingness. BRT models can show how values of other variables influence missingness, which may prove useful for researchers. Conclusion Researchers are encouraged to use CART and BRT models to explore and understand missing data.

Mind what you say-general and specific mechanisms for monitoring in speech production

For most people, speech production is relatively effortless and error-free. Yet it has long been recognized that we need some type of control over what we are currently saying and what we plan to say. Precisely how we monitor our internal and external speech has been a topic of research interest for several decades. The predominant approach in psycholinguistics has assumed monitoring of both is accomplished via systems responsible for comprehending others' speech. This special topic aimed to broaden the field, firstly by examining proposals that speech production might also engage more general systems, such as those involved in action monitoring. A second aim was to examine proposals for a production-specific, internal monitor. Both aims require that we also specify the nature of the representations subject to monitoring.

Discovery and replication of gene influences on brain structure using LASSO regression

We implemented least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to evaluate gene effects in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of brain images, using an MRI-derived temporal lobe volume measure from 729 subjects scanned as part of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Sparse groups of SNPs in individual genes were selected by LASSO, which identifies efficient sets of variants influencing the data. These SNPs were considered jointly when assessing their association with neuroimaging measures. We discovered 22 genes that passed genome-wide significance for influencing temporal lobe volume. This was a substantially greater number of significant genes compared to those found with standard, univariate GWAS. These top genes are all expressed in the brain and include genes previously related to brain function or neuropsychiatric disorders such as MACROD2, SORCS2, GRIN2B, MAGI2, NPAS3, CLSTN2, GABRG3, NRXN3, PRKAG2, GAS7, RBFOX1, ADARB2, CHD4, and CDH13. The top genes we identified with this method also displayed significant and widespread post hoc effects on voxelwise, tensor-based morphometry (TBM) maps of the temporal lobes. The most significantly associated gene was an autism susceptibility gene known as MACROD2.We were able to successfully replicate the effect of the MACROD2 gene in an independent cohort of 564 young, Australian healthy adult twins and siblings scanned with MRI (mean age: 23.8±2.2 SD years). Our approach powerfully complements univariate techniques in detecting influences of genes on the living brain.

No specific role for the manual motor system in processing the meanings of words related to the hand

The present study explored whether semantic and motor systems are functionally interwoven via the use of a dual-task paradigm. According to embodied language accounts that propose an automatic and necessary involvement of the motor system in conceptual processing, concurrent processing of hand-related information should interfere more with hand movements than processing of unrelated body-part (i.e., foot, mouth) information. Across three experiments, 100 right-handed participants performed left- or right-hand tapping movements while repeatedly reading action words related to different body-parts, or different body-part names, in both aloud and silent conditions. Concurrent reading of single words related to specific body-parts, or the same words embedded in sentences differing in syntactic and phonological complexity (to manipulate context-relevant processing), and reading while viewing videos of the actions and body-parts described by the target words (to elicit visuomotor associations) all interfered with right-hand but not left-hand tapping rate. However, this motor interference was not affected differentially by hand-related stimuli. Thus, the results provide no support for proposals that body-part specific resources in cortical motor systems are shared between overt manual movements and meaning-related processing of words related to the hand.

The roles of shared vs. Distinctive conceptual features in lexical access

Contemporary models of spoken word production assume conceptual feature sharing determines the speed with which objects are named in categorically-related contexts. However, statistical models of concept representation have also identified a role for feature distinctiveness, i.e., features that identify a single concept and serve to distinguish it quickly from other similar concepts. In three experiments we investigated whether distinctive features might explain reports of counter-intuitive semantic facilitation effects in the picture word interference (PWI) paradigm. In Experiment 1, categorically-related distractors matched in terms of semantic similarity ratings (e.g., zebra and pony) and manipulated with respect to feature distinctiveness (e.g., a zebra has stripes unlike other equine species) elicited interference effects of comparable magnitude. Experiments 2 and 3 investigated the role of feature distinctiveness with respect to reports of facilitated naming with part-whole distractor-target relations (e.g., a hump is a distinguishing part of a CAMEL, whereas knee is not, vs. an unrelated part such as plug). Related part distractors did not influence target picture naming latencies significantly when the part denoted by the related distractor was not visible in the target picture (whether distinctive or not; Experiment 2). When the part denoted by the related distractor was visible in the target picture, non-distinctive part distractors slowed target naming significantly at SOA of -150 ms (Experiment 3). Thus, our results show that semantic interference does occur for part-whole distractor-target relations in PWI, but only when distractors denote features shared with the target and other category exemplars. We discuss the implications of these results for some recently developed, novel accounts of lexical access in spoken word production.

Predicting the need for adaptive radiotherapy in head and neck cancer

Background and purpose Adaptive radiotherapy (ART) can account for the dosimetric impact of anatomical change in head and neck cancer patients; however it can be resource intensive. Consequently, it is imperative that patients likely to require ART are identified. The purpose of this study was to find predictive factors that identify oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPC) and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients more likely to need ART. Materials and methods One hundred and ten patients with OPC or NPC were analysed. Patient demographics and tumour characteristics were compared between patients who were replanned and those that were not. Factors found to be significant were included in logistic regression models. Risk profiles were developed from these models. A dosimetric analysis was performed. Results Nodal disease stage, pre-treatment largest involved node size, diagnosis and initial weight (categorised in 2 groups) were identified as significant for inclusion in the model. Two models were found to be significant (p = 0.001), correctly classifying 98.2% and 96.1% of patients respectively. Three ART risk profiles were developed. Conclusion Predictive factors identifying OPC or NPC patients more likely to require ART were reported. A risk profile approach could facilitate the effective implementation of ART into radiotherapy departments through forward planning and appropriate resource allocation.

Oldest pathology in a tetrapod bone illuminates the origin of terrestrial vertebrates

The origin of terrestrial tetrapods was a key event in vertebrate evolution, yet how and when it occurred remains obscure, due to scarce fossil evidence. Here, we show that the study of palaeopathologies, such as broken and healed bones, can help elucidate poorly understood behavioural transitions such as this. Using high-resolution finite element analysis, we demonstrate that the oldest known broken tetrapod bone, a radius of the primitive stem tetrapod Ossinodus pueri from the mid-Viséan (333 million years ago) of Australia, fractured under a high-force, impact-type loading scenario. The nature of the fracture suggests that it most plausibly occurred during a fall on land. Augmenting this are new osteological observations, including a preferred directionality to the trabecular architecture of cancellous bone. Together, these results suggest that Ossinodus, one of the first large (>2m length) tetrapods, spent a significant proportion of its life on land. Our findings have important implications for understanding the temporal, biogeographical and physiological contexts under which terrestriality in vertebrates evolved. They push the date for the origin of terrestrial tetrapods further back into the Carboniferous by at least two million years. Moreover, they raise the possibility that terrestriality in vertebrates first evolved in large tetrapods in Gondwana rather than in small European forms, warranting a re-evaluation of this important evolutionary event.

Second language social networks and communication-related acculturative stress: The role of interconnectedness

Although a substantial amount of cross-cultural psychology research has investigated acculturative stress in general, little attention has been devoted specifically to communication-related acculturative stress (CRAS). In line with the view that cross-cultural adaptation and second language (L2) learning are social and interpersonal phenomena, the present study examines the hypothesis that migrants’ L2 social network size and interconnectedness predict CRAS. The main idea underlying this hypothesis is that L2 social networks play an important role in fostering social and cultural aspects of communicative competence. Specifically, higher interconnectedness may reflect greater access to unmodified natural cultural representations and L2 communication practices, thus fostering communicative competence through observational learning. As such, structural aspects of migrants’ L2 social networks may be protective against acculturative stress arising from chronic communication difficulties. Results from a study of first generation migrant students (N = 100) support this idea by showing that both inclusiveness and density of the participants’ L2 network account for unique variance in CRAS but not in general acculturative stress. These results support the idea that research on cross-cultural adaptation would benefit from disentangling the various facets of acculturative stress and that the structure of migrants’ L2 network matters for language related outcomes. Finally, this study contributes to an emerging body of work that attempts to integrate cultural/cross-cultural research on acculturation and research on intercultural communication and second language learning.

Long-lasting semantic interference effects in object naming are not necessarily conceptually mediated

Long-lasting interference effects in picture naming are induced when objects are presented in categorically related contexts in both continuous and blocked cyclic paradigms. Less consistent context effects have been reported when the task is changed to semantic classification. Experiment 1 confirmed the recent finding of cumulative facilitation in the continuous paradigm with living/non-living superordinate categorization. To avoid a potential confound involving participants responding with the identical superordinate category in related contexts in the blocked cyclic paradigm, we devised a novel set of categorically related objects that also varied in terms of relative age – a core semantic type associated with the adjective word class across languages. Experiment 2 demonstrated the typical interference effect with these stimuli in basic level naming. In Experiment 3, using the identical blocked cyclic paradigm, we failed to observe semantic context effects when the same pictures were classified as younger–older. Overall, the results indicate the semantic context effects in the two paradigms do not share a common origin, with the effect in the continuous paradigm arising at the level of conceptual representations or in conceptual-to-lexical connections while the effect in the blocked cyclic paradigm most likely originates at a lexical level of representation. The implications of these findings for current accounts of long-lasting interference effects in spoken word production are discussed.

Bayesian parametric bootstrap for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper it is demonstrated how the Bayesian parametric bootstrap can be adapted to models with intractable likelihoods. The approach is most appealing when the semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) summary statistics are selected. After a pilot run of ABC, the likelihood-free parametric bootstrap approach requires very few model simulations to produce an approximate posterior, which can be a useful approximation in its own right. An alternative is to use this approximation as a proposal distribution in ABC algorithms to make them more efficient. In this paper, the parametric bootstrap approximation is used to form the initial importance distribution for the sequential Monte Carlo and the ABC importance and rejection sampling algorithms. The new approach is illustrated through a simulation study of the univariate g-and- k quantile distribution, and is used to infer parameter values of a stochastic model describing expanding melanoma cell colonies.

Lateralization of temporal lobe epilepsy based on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and machine learning

Lateralization of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) is critical for successful outcome of surgery to relieve seizures. TLE affects brain regions beyond the temporal lobes and has been associated with aberrant brain networks, based on evidence from functional magnetic resonance imaging. We present here a machine learning-based method for determining the laterality of TLE, using features extracted from resting-state functional connectivity of the brain. A comprehensive feature space was constructed to include network properties within local brain regions, between brain regions, and across the whole network. Feature selection was performed based on random forest and a support vector machine was employed to train a linear model to predict the laterality of TLE on unseen patients. A leave-one-patient-out cross validation was carried out on 12 patients and a prediction accuracy of 83% was achieved. The importance of selected features was analyzed to demonstrate the contribution of resting-state connectivity attributes at voxel, region, and network levels to TLE lateralization.

Populations of models, experimental designs and coverage of parameter space by Latin Hypercube and Orthogonal Sampling

In this paper we have used simulations to make a conjecture about the coverage of a t-dimensional subspace of a d-dimensional parameter space of size n when performing k trials of Latin Hypercube sampling. This takes the form P(k,n,d,t) = 1 - e^(-k/n^(t-1)). We suggest that this coverage formula is independent of d and this allows us to make connections between building Populations of Models and Experimental Designs. We also show that Orthogonal sampling is superior to Latin Hypercube sampling in terms of allowing a more uniform coverage of the t-dimensional subspace at the sub-block size level. These ideas have particular relevance when attempting to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses.

Stochastic linear multistep methods for the simulation of chemical kinetics

In this paper, we introduce the Stochastic Adams-Bashforth (SAB) and Stochastic Adams-Moulton (SAM) methods as an extension of the tau-leaping framework to past information. Using the theta-trapezoidal tau-leap method of weak order two as a starting procedure, we show that the k-step SAB method with k >= 3 is order three in the mean and correlation, while a predictor-corrector implementation of the SAM method is weak order three in the mean but only order one in the correlation. These convergence results have been derived analytically for linear problems and successfully tested numerically for both linear and non-linear systems. A series of additional examples have been implemented in order to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.