Are R&D collaborative agreements persistent at the firm level? Empirical evidence for the Spanish case

We provide evidence on the dynamics in firms’ R&D cooperation behaviour. Our main objective is to analyse if R&D collaborative agreements are persistent at the firm level, and in such a case, to study what are the main drivers of this phenomenon. R&D cooperation activities at the firm level can be persistent due to true state dependence, this implying that cooperating in a given period enhances the probability of doing it in the subsequent period and it can also be a consequence of firms’ individual heterogeneity, so that certain firms have certain characteristics that make them more likely to carry out technological alliances.

Arvonmääritysmallin kehittäminen sijoittajan näkökulmasta: Case F-secure

Työn tavoitteena on kehittää Microsoft Excel -taulukkolaskentaohjelmaan pohjautuva arvonmääritysmalli. Mallin avulla osaketutkimusta tekevät analyytikot ja sijoittajat voivat määrittää osakkeen fundamenttiarvon. Malli kehitetään erityisesti piensijoittajien työkaluksi. Työn toisena tavoitteena on soveltaa kehitettyä arvonmääritysmallia case-yrityksenä toimivan F-Securen arvonmäärityksessä ja selvittää mallin avulla onko F-Securen osake pörssissä fundamentteihin nähden oikein hinnoiteltu. Työn teoriaosassa esitellään arvonmäärityksen käyttökohteet ja historia, arvonmääritysprosessin vaiheet (strateginen analyysi, tilinpäätösanalyysi, tulevaisuuden ennakointi, yrityksen arvon laskeminen), pääoman kustannuksen määrittäminen ja sijoittajan eri arvonmääritysmenetelmät, joita ovat diskontattuun kassavirtaan perustuvassa arvonmäärityksessä käytettävät mallit sekä suhteellisen arvonmäärityksentunnusluvut. Empiirinen osa käsittää arvonmääritysmallin kehittämisen ja rakenteen kuvauksen sekä F-Securen arvonmääritysprosessin. Vaikka F-Securen tulevaisuus näyttää varsin valoisalta, osake on hinnoiteltu markkinoilla tällä hetkellä(23.02.2006) korkeammalle kuin näihin odotuksiin nähden olisi järkevää. Eri menetelmät antavat osakkeelle arvoja 2,25 euron ja 2,97 euron väliltä. Kehitetty Excel -malli määrittää F-Securen osakkeen tavoitehinnaksi eri menetelmien mediaanina 2,29 euroa. Tutkimuksen tuloksena F-Securen osaketta voidaan pitää yliarvostettuna, sillä sen hinta pörssissä on 3,05 euroa.

Rahoitusalan yrityksen arvonmäärittäminen

Tässä tutkimuksessa tutkittiin rahoitusalan yritysten arvonmäärittämistä. Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli perehtyä yrityksen arvonmäärityksen teoriaan ja testata erilaisten arvonmääritysmallien sopivuutta esimerkkiyrityksiin. Tätä kautta pyrittiin selvittämään perinteisten arvonmääritysmallien soveltuvuus rahoitusalan yritysten arvon määrittämiseksi.Tämän lisäksi oltiin kiinnostuneita menetelmien soveltuvuuseroista erityyppisten rahoitusalan yritysten arvonmäärityksessä. Teoriaosuudessa esiteltiin yrityksen arvonmääritysprosessi ja käytiin läpi perinteiset arvonmääritysmallit. Empiriaosuudessa näistä teoreettisista lähtökohdista pyrittiin havainnollistamaan erilaisten esimerkkiyritysten avulla rahoitusalan yritysten arvonmääritysprosessia. Tämän tutkimuksen mukaanperinteiset arvonmääritysmallit tuntuvat sopivan pankkeja ja vakuutusyhtiöitä lukuun ottamatta kohtuullisen hyvin rahoitusalan yritysten arvonmäärittämiseen. Pankkien arvon määrittäminen on erittäin vaikeata johtuen lukuisista niihin kohdistuvista erityissäädöksistä ja raportointimääräyksistä.

High-performance liquid chromatography of the renal blood flow marker p-aminohippuric acid (PAH) and its metabolite N-acetyl PAH improves PAH clearance measurements.

PAH (N-(4-aminobenzoyl)glycin) clearance measurements have been used for 50 years in clinical research for the determination of renal plasma flow. The quantitation of PAH in plasma or urine is generally performed by colorimetric method after diazotation reaction but the measurements must be corrected for the unspecific residual response observed in blank plasma. We have developed a HPLC method to specifically determine PAH and its metabolite NAc-PAH using a gradient elution ion-pair reversed-phase chromatography with UV detection at 273 and 265 nm, respectively. The separations were performed at room temperature on a ChromCart (125 mmx4 mm I.D.) Nucleosil 100-5 microm C18AB cartridge column, using a gradient elution of MeOH-buffer pH 3.9 1:99-->15:85 over 15 min. The pH 3.9 buffered aqueous solution consisted in a mixture of 375 ml sodium citrate-citric acid solution (21.01 g citric acid and 8.0 g NaOH per liter), added up with 2.7 ml H3PO4 85%, 1.0 g of sodium heptanesulfonate and completed ad 1000 ml with ultrapure water. The N-acetyltransferase activity does not seem to notably affect PAH clearances, although NAc-PAH represents 10.2+/-2.7% of PAH excreted unchanged in 12 healthy subjects. The performance of the HPLC and the colorimetric method have been compared using urine and plasma samples collected from healthy volunteers. Good correlations (r=0.94 and 0.97, for plasma and urine, respectively) are found between the results obtained with both techniques. However, the colorimetric method gives higher concentrations of PAH in urine and lower concentrations in plasma than those determined by HPLC. Hence, both renal (ClR) and systemic (Cls) clearances are systematically higher (35.1 and 17.8%, respectively) with the colorimetric method. The fraction of PAH excreted by the kidney ClR/ClS calculated from HPLC data (n=143) is, as expected, always <1 (mean=0.73+/-0.11), whereas the colorimetric method gives a mean extraction ratio of 0.87+/-0.13 implying some unphysiological values (>1). In conclusion, HPLC not only enables the simultaneous quantitation of PAH and NAc-PAH, but may also provide more accurate and precise PAH clearance measurements.

Syttyminen ja palamisen eteneminen partikkelikerroksessa

Syttymistä ja palamisen etenemistä partikkelikerroksessa tutkitaan paloturvallisuuden parantamista sekä kiinteitä polttoaineita käyttävien polttolaitteiden toiminnan tuntemista ja kehittämistä varten. Tässä tutkimuksessa on tavoitteena kerätä yhteen syttymiseen ja liekkirintaman etenemiseen liittyviä kokeellisia ja teoreettisia tutkimustuloksia, jotka auttavat kiinteäkerrospoltto- ja -kaasutus-laitteiden kehittämisessä ja suunnittelussa. Työ on esitutkimus sitä seuraavalle kokeelliselle ja teoreettiselle osalle. Käsittelyssä keskitytään erityisesti puuperäisiin polttoaineisiin. Hiilidioksidipäästöjen vähentämistavoitteet sekä kiinteiden jätteiden energiakäytön lisääminen ja kaatopaikalle viennin vähentäminen aiheuttavat lähitulevaisuudessa kerrospolton lisääntymistä. Kuljetusmatkojen optimoinnin takia joudutaan rakentamaan melko pieniä polttolaitoksia, joissa kerrospolttotekniikka on edullisin vaihtoehto. Syttymispisteellä tarkoitetaan Semenovin määritelmän mukaan tilaa ja ajankohtaa, jolloin polttoaineen ja hapen reaktioissa muodostuva nettoenergia aikayksikössä on yhtäsuuri kuin ympäristöön siirtyvä nettoenergiavirta. Itsesyttyminen tarkoittaa syttymistä ympäristön lämpötilan tai paineen suurenemisen seurauksena. Pakotettu syttyminen tapahtuu, kun syttymispisteen läheisyydessä on esimerkiksi liekki tai hehkuva kiinteä kappale, joka aiheuttaa paikallisen syttymisen ja syttymisrintaman leviämisen muualle polttoaineeseen. Kokeellinen tutkimus on osoittanut tärkeimmiksi syttymiseen ja syttymisrintaman etenemiseen vaikuttaviksi tekijöiksi polttoaineen kosteuden, haihtuvien aineiden pitoisuuden ja lämpöarvon, partikkelikerroksen huokoisuuden, partikkelien koon ja muodon, polttoaineen pinnalle tulevan säteilylämpövirran tiheyden, kaasun virtausnopeuden kerroksessa, hapen osuuden ympäristössä sekä palamisilman esilämmityksen. Kosteuden lisääntyminen suurentaa syttymisenergiaa ja -lämpötilaa sekä pidentää syttymisaikaa. Mitä enemmän polttoaine sisältää haihtuvia aineita sitä pienemmässä lämpötilassa se syttyy. Syttyminen ja syttymisrintaman eteneminen ovat sitä nopeampia mitä suurempi on polttoaineen lämpöarvo. Kerroksen huokoisuuden kasvun on havaittu suurentavan palamisen etenemisnopeutta. Pienet partikkelit syttyvät yleensä nopeammin ja pienemmässä lämpötilassa kuin suuret. Syttymisrintaman eteneminen nopeutuu partikkelien pinta-ala - tilavuussuhteen kasvaessa. Säteilylämpövirran tiheys on useissa polttosovellutuksissa merkittävin lämmönsiirtotekijä, jonka kasvu luonnollisesti nopeuttaa syttymistä. Ilman ja palamiskaasujen virtausnopeus kerroksessa vaikuttaa konvektiiviseen lämmönsiirtoon ja hapen pitoisuuteen syttymisvyöhykkeellä. Ilmavirtaus voi jäähdyttää ja kuumankaasun virtaus lämmittää kerrosta. Hapen osuuden kasvaminen nopeuttaa syttymistä ja liekkirintaman etenemistä kunnes saavutetaan tila, jota suuremmilla virtauksilla ilma jäähdyttää ja laimentaa reaktiovyöhykettä. Palamisilman esilämmitys nopeuttaa syttymisrintaman etenemistä. Syttymistä ja liekkirintaman etenemistä kuvataan yleensä empiirisillä tai säilyvyysyhtälöihin perustuvilla malleilla. Empiiriset mallit perustuvat mittaustuloksista tehtyihin korrelaatioihin sekä joihinkin tunnettuihin fysikaalisiin lainalaisuuksiin. Säilyvyysyhtälöihin perustuvissa malleissa systeemille määritetään massan, energian, liikemäärän ja alkuaineiden säilymisyhtälöt, joiden nopeutta kuvaavien siirtoyhtälöiden muodostamiseen käytetään teoreettisella ja kokeellisella tutkimuksella saatuja yhtälöitä. Nämä mallinnusluokat ovat osittain päällekkäisiä. Pintojen syttymistä kuvataan usein säilyvyysyhtälöihin perustuvilla malleilla. Partikkelikerrosten mallinnuksessa tukeudutaan enimmäkseen empiirisiin yhtälöihin. Partikkelikerroksia kuvaavista malleista Xien ja Liangin hiilipartikkelikerroksen syttymiseen liittyvä tutkimus ja Gortin puun ja jätteen polttoon liittyvä reaktiorintaman etenemistutkimus ovat lähimpänä säilyvyysyhtälöihin perustuvaa mallintamista. Kaikissa malleissa joudutaan kuitenkin yksinkertaistamaan todellista tapausta esimerkiksi vähentämällä dimensioita, reaktioita ja yhdisteitä sekä eliminoimalla vähemmän merkittävät siirtomekanismit. Suoraan kerrospolttoa ja -kaasutusta palvelevia syttymisen ja palamisen etenemisen tutkimuksia on vähän. Muita tarkoituksia varten tehtyjen tutkimusten polttoaineet, kerrokset ja ympäristöolosuhteet poikkeavat yleensä selvästi polttolaitteiden vastaavista olosuhteista. Erikokoisten polttoainepartikkelien ja ominaisuuksiltaan erilaisten polttoaineiden seospolttoa ei ole tutkittu juuri ollenkaan. Polttoainepartikkelien muodon vaikutuksesta on vain vähän tutkimusta.Ilman kanavoitumisen vaikutuksista ei löytynyt tutkimuksia.

Value added logistics in supply and demand chain. Smile. Part 2. eBusiness in a service business. Case: A maintenance and operations network in forest industry

VVALOSADE is a research project of professor Anita Lukka's VALORE research team in the Lappeenranta University of Technology. The VALOSADE includes the ELO technology program of Tekes. SMILE is one of four subprojects of the VALOSADE. The SMILE study focuses on the case of the company network that is composed of small and micro-sized mechanical maintenance service providers and forest industry as large-scale customers. The basic principle of the SMILE study is the communication and ebusiness in supply and demand networks. The aim of the study is to develop ebusiness strategy, ebusiness model and e-processes among the SME local service providers, and onthe other hand, between the local service provider network and the forest industry customers in a maintenance and operations service business. A literature review, interviews and benchmarking are used as research methods in this qualitative case study. The first SMILE report, 'Ebusiness between Global Company and Its Local SME Supplier Network', concentrated on creating background for the SMILE study by studying general trends of ebusiness in supply chains and networks of different industries. This second phase of the study concentrates on case network background, such as business relationships, information systems and business objectives; core processes in maintenance and operations service network; development needs in communication among the network participants; and ICT solutions to respond needs in changing environment. In the theory part of the report, different ebusiness models and frameworks are introduced. Those models and frameworks are compared to empirical case data. From that analysis of the empirical data, therecommendations for the development of the network information system are derived. In process industry such as the forest industry, it is crucial to achieve a high level of operational efficiency and reliability, which sets up great requirements for maintenance and operations. Therefore, partnerships or strategic alliances are needed between the network participants. In partnerships and alliances, deep communication is important, and therefore the information systems in the network also are critical. Communication, coordination and collaboration will increase in the case network in the future, because network resources must be optimised to improve competitive capability of the forest industry customers and theefficiency of their service providers. At present, ebusiness systems are not usual in this maintenance network. A network information system among the forest industry customers and their local service providers actually is the only genuinenetwork information system in this total network. However, the utilisation of that system has been quite insignificant. The current system does not add value enough either to the customers or to the local service providers. At present, thenetwork information system is the infomediary that share static information forthe network partners. The network information system should be the transaction intermediary, which integrates internal processes of the network companies; the network information system, which provides common standardised processes for thelocal service providers; and the infomediary, which share static and dynamic information on right time, on right partner, on right costs, on right format and on right quality. This study provides recommendations how to develop this system in the future to add value to the network companies. Ebusiness scenarios, vision, objectives, strategies, application architecture, ebusiness model, core processes and development strategy must be considered when the network information system will be developed in the next development step. The core processes in the case network are demand/capacity management, customer/supplier relationship management, service delivery management, knowledge management and cash flow management. Most benefits from ebusiness solutions come from the electrifying of operational level processes, such as service delivery management and cash flow management.

Modeling of non-isothermalvapor membrane separation with thermodynamic models and generalized mass transfer equations

A rigorous unit operation model is developed for vapor membrane separation. The new model is able to describe temperature, pressure, and concentration dependent permeation as wellreal fluid effects in vapor and gas separation with hydrocarbon selective rubbery polymeric membranes. The permeation through the membrane is described by a separate treatment of sorption and diffusion within the membrane. The chemical engineering thermodynamics is used to describe the equilibrium sorption of vapors and gases in rubbery membranes with equation of state models for polymeric systems. Also a new modification of the UNIFAC model is proposed for this purpose. Various thermodynamic models are extensively compared in order to verify the models' ability to predict and correlate experimental vapor-liquid equilibrium data. The penetrant transport through the selective layer of the membrane is described with the generalized Maxwell-Stefan equations, which are able to account for thebulk flux contribution as well as the diffusive coupling effect. A method is described to compute and correlate binary penetrant¿membrane diffusion coefficients from the experimental permeability coefficients at different temperatures and pressures. A fluid flow model for spiral-wound modules is derived from the conservation equation of mass, momentum, and energy. The conservation equations are presented in a discretized form by using the control volume approach. A combination of the permeation model and the fluid flow model yields the desired rigorous model for vapor membrane separation. The model is implemented into an inhouse process simulator and so vapor membrane separation may be evaluated as an integralpart of a process flowsheet.

Gas-liquid mass transfer in bubbly flow: Estimation of mass transfer, bubble size and reactor performance in various applications

Gas-liquid mass transfer is an important issue in the design and operation of many chemical unit operations. Despite its importance, the evaluation of gas-liquid mass transfer is not straightforward due to the complex nature of the phenomena involved. In this thesis gas-liquid mass transfer was evaluated in three different gas-liquid reactors in a traditional way by measuring the volumetric mass transfer coefficient (kLa). The studied reactors were a bubble column with a T-junction two-phase nozzle for gas dispersion, an industrial scale bubble column reactor for the oxidation of tetrahydroanthrahydroquinone and a concurrent downflow structured bed.The main drawback of this approach is that the obtained correlations give only the average volumetric mass transfer coefficient, which is dependent on average conditions. Moreover, the obtained correlations are valid only for the studied geometry and for the chemical system used in the measurements. In principle, a more fundamental approach is to estimate the interfacial area available for mass transfer from bubble size distributions obtained by solution of population balance equations. This approach has been used in this thesis by developing a population balance model for a bubble column together with phenomenological models for bubble breakage and coalescence. The parameters of the bubble breakage rate and coalescence rate models were estimated by comparing the measured and calculated bubble sizes. The coalescence models always have at least one experimental parameter. This is because the bubble coalescence depends on liquid composition in a way which is difficult to evaluate using known physical properties. The coalescence properties of some model solutions were evaluated by measuring the time that a bubble rests at the free liquid-gas interface before coalescing (the so-calledpersistence time or rest time). The measured persistence times range from 10 msup to 15 s depending on the solution. The coalescence was never found to be instantaneous. The bubble oscillates up and down at the interface at least a coupleof times before coalescence takes place. The measured persistence times were compared to coalescence times obtained by parameter fitting using measured bubble size distributions in a bubble column and a bubble column population balance model. For short persistence times, the persistence and coalescence times are in good agreement. For longer persistence times, however, the persistence times are at least an order of magnitude longer than the corresponding coalescence times from parameter fitting. This discrepancy may be attributed to the uncertainties concerning the estimation of energy dissipation rates, collision rates and mechanisms and contact times of the bubbles.

Acting, predicting and intervening in a socio-hydrological world

This paper asks a simple question: if humans and their actions co-evolve with hydrological systems (Sivapalan et al., 2012), what is the role of hydrological scientists, who are also humans, within this system? To put it more directly, as traditionally there is a supposed separation of scientists and society, can we maintain this separation as socio-hydrologists studying a socio-hydrological world? This paper argues that we cannot, using four linked sections. The first section draws directly upon the concern of science-technology studies to make a case to the (socio-hydrological) community that we need to be sensitive to constructivist accounts of science in general and socio-hydrology in particular. I review three positions taken by such accounts and apply them to hydrological science, supported with specific examples: (a) the ways in which scientific activities frame socio-hydrological research, such that at least some of the knowledge that we obtain is constructed by precisely what we do; (b) the need to attend to how socio-hydrological knowledge is used in decision-making, as evidence suggests that hydrological knowledge does not flow simply from science into policy; and (c) the observation that those who do not normally label themselves as socio-hydrologists may actually have a profound knowledge of socio-hydrology. The second section provides an empirical basis for considering these three issues by detailing the history of the practice of roughness parameterisation, using parameters like Manning's n, in hydrological and hydraulic models for flood inundation mapping. This history sustains the third section that is a more general consideration of one type of socio-hydrological practice: predictive modelling. I show that as part of a socio-hydrological analysis, hydrological prediction needs to be thought through much more carefully: not only because hydrological prediction exists to help inform decisions that are made about water management; but also because those predictions contain assumptions, the predictions are only correct in so far as those assumptions hold, and for those assumptions to hold, the socio-hydrological system (i.e. the world) has to be shaped so as to include them. Here, I add to the ``normal'' view that ideally our models should represent the world around us, to argue that for our models (and hence our predictions) to be valid, we have to make the world look like our models. Decisions over how the world is modelled may transform the world as much as they represent the world. Thus, socio-hydrological modelling has to become a socially accountable process such that the world is transformed, through the implications of modelling, in a fair and just manner. This leads into the final section of the paper where I consider how socio-hydrological research may be made more socially accountable, in a way that is both sensitive to the constructivist critique (Sect. 1), but which retains the contribution that hydrologists might make to socio-hydrological studies. This includes (1) working with conflict and controversy in hydrological science, rather than trying to eliminate them; (2) using hydrological events to avoid becoming locked into our own frames of explanation and prediction; (3) being empirical and experimental but in a socio-hydrological sense; and (4) co-producing socio-hydrological predictions. I will show how this might be done through a project that specifically developed predictive models for making interventions in river catchments to increase high river flow attenuation. Therein, I found myself becoming detached from my normal disciplinary networks and attached to the co-production of a predictive hydrological model with communities normally excluded from the practice of hydrological science.

Flow resistance equations for mountain rivers

Three models of flow resistance (a Keulegan-type logarithmic law and two models developed for large-scale roughness conditions: the full logarithmic law and a model based on an inflectional velocity profile) were calibrated, validated and compared using an extensive database (N = 1,533) from rivers and flumes, representative of a wide hydraulic and geomorphologic range in the field of gravel-bed and mountain channels. It is preferable to apply the model based on an inflectional velocity profile in the relative submergence (y/d90) interval between 0.5 and 15, while the full logarithmic law is preferable for values below 0.5. For high relative submergence, above 15, either the logarithmic law or the full logarithmic law can be applied. The models fitted to the coarser percentiles are preferable to those fitted to the median diameter, owing to the higher explanatory power achieved by setting a model, the smaller difference in the goodness-of-fit between the different models and the lower influence of the origin of the data (river or flume).

Mobile E-commerce business model – A value web based approach to business models in mobile gaming industry

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tutkia langattomien internet palveluiden arvoverkkoa ja liiketoimintamalleja. Tutkimus oli luonteeltaan kvalitatiivinen ja siinä käytettiin strategiana konstruktiivista case-tutkimusta. Esimerkkipalveluna oli Treasure Hunters matkapuhelinpeli. Tutkimus muodostui teoreettisesta ja empiirisestä osasta. Teoriaosassa liitettiin innovaatio, liiketoimintamallit ja arvoverkko käsitteellisesti toisiinsa, sekä luotiin perusta liiketoimintamallien kehittämiselle. Empiirisessä osassa keskityttiin ensin liiketoimintamallien luomiseen kehitettyjen innovaatioiden pohjalta. Lopuksi pyrittiin määrittämään arvoverkko palvelun toteuttamiseksi. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytettiin innovaatiosessiota, haastatteluja ja lomakekyselyä. Tulosten pohjalta muodostettiin useita liiketoimintakonsepteja sekä kuvaus arvoverkon perusmallista langattomille peleille. Loppupäätelmänä todettiin että langattomat palvelut vaativat toteutuakseen useista toimijoista koostuvan arvoverkon.

A territorial approach to R&D subsidies: Empirical evidence for Catalonian firms

Using a database of 2,263 responses to R&D public calls in Catalonia, during the period 2007–2010, this paper proceeds to analyse the potential interaction of the territorial and policy dimensions with the propensity to apply for, and be awarded, a public R&D subsidy. Controlling for characteristics at the firm and project level, we estimate models using a twostep procedure. In the first step, our results suggest that large firms which export and which belong to high-tech manufactures are more likely to participate in a public R&D call. Furthermore, both urban location and past experience of such calls have a positive effect. Our territorial proxy of information spillovers shows a positive sign, but this is only significant at intra-industry level. Membership of one of the sectors prioritized by the Catalan government, perhaps surprisingly, does not have a significant impact. In the second step, our results show that cooperative projects, SMEs or old firms shows a positive effect on the probability of obtaining a public subsidy. Finally, the cluster policy does not show a clear relationship with the public R&D call, suggesting that cluster policies and R&D subsidies follow different goals. Our results are in line with previous results in the literature, but they highlight the unequal territorial distribution of the firms which apply and the fact that policymakers should interlink the decision criteria for their public call with other policies.

Fluid flow processes at basin scale

S u b s u r face fluid flow plays a significant role in many geologic processes and is increasingly being studied in the scale of sedimentary basins and geologic time perspective. Many economic resources such as petroleum and mineral deposits are products of basin scale fluid flow operating over large periods of time. Such ancient flow systems can be studied through analysis of diagenetic alterations and fluid inclusions to constrain physical and chemical conditions of fluids and rocks during their paleohy d r og e o l ogic evolution. Basin simulation models are useful to complement the paleohy d r og e o l ogic record preserved in the rocks and to derive conceptual models on hydraulic basin evolution and generation of economic resources. Different types of fluid flow regimes may evo l ve during basin evolution. The most important with respect to flow rates and capacity for transport of solutes and thermal energy is gr avitational fluid flow driven by the topographic configuration of a basin. Such flow systems require the basin to be elevated above sea level. Consolidational fluid flow is the principal fluid migration process in basins below sea level, caused by loading of compressible rocks. Flow rates of such systems are several orders of magnitude below topogr a p hy driven flow. Howeve r, consolidation may create significant fluid ove rpressure. Episodic dewatering of ove rpressured compart m e n t s m ay cause sudden fluid release with elevated flow velocities and may cause a transient local thermal and chemical disequilibrium betwe e n fluid and rock. This paper gives an ove rv i ew on subsurface fluid flow processes at basin scale and presents examples related to the Pe n e d è s basin in the central Catalan continental margin including the offshore Barcelona half-graben and the compressive South-Pyrenean basin.

Completion and Publication Rates of Randomized Controlled Trials in Surgery: An Empirical Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical versus medical randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and to explore risk factors for discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical RCTs. BACKGROUND: Trial discontinuation has significant scientific, ethical, and economic implications. To date, the prevalence of discontinuation of surgical RCTs is unknown. METHODS: All RCT protocols approved between 2000 and 2003 by 6 ethics committees in Canada, Germany, and Switzerland were screened. Baseline characteristics were collected and, if published, full reports retrieved. Risk factors for early discontinuation for slow recruitment and nonpublication were explored using multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: In total, 863 RCT protocols involving adult patients were identified, 127 in surgery (15%) and 736 in medicine (85%). Surgical trials were discontinued for any reason more often than medical trials [43% vs 27%, risk difference 16% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5%-26%); P = 0.001] and more often discontinued for slow recruitment [18% vs 11%, risk difference 8% (95% CI: 0.1%-16%); P = 0.020]. The percentage of trials not published as full journal article was similar in surgical and medical trials (44% vs 40%, risk difference 4% (95% CI: -5% to 14%); P = 0.373). Discontinuation of surgical trials was a strong risk factor for nonpublication (odds ratio = 4.18, 95% CI: 1.45-12.06; P = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuation and nonpublication rates were substantial in surgical RCTs and trial discontinuation was strongly associated with nonpublication. These findings need to be taken into account when interpreting surgical literature. Surgical trialists should consider feasibility studies before embarking on full-scale trials.

Factors Affecting the Forecasting Accuracy of Diffusion Models

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tarkastella innovaatioiden leviämismallien ennustetarkkuuteen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tutkielmassa ennustettiin logistisella mallilla matkapuhelinliittymien leviämistä kolmessa Euroopan maassa: Suomessa, Ranskassa ja Kreikassa. Teoriaosa keskittyi innovaatioiden leviämisen ennustamiseen leviämismallien avulla. Erityisesti painotettiin mallien ennustuskykyä ja niiden käytettävyyttä eri tilanteissa. Empiirisessä osassa keskityttiin ennustamiseen logistisella leviämismallilla, joka kalibroitiin eri tavoin koostetuilla aikasarjoilla. Näin tehtyjä ennusteita tarkasteltiin tiedon kokoamistasojen vaikutusten selvittämiseksi. Tutkimusasetelma oli empiirinen, mikä sisälsi logistisen leviämismallin ennustetarkkuuden tutkimista otosdatan kokoamistasoa muunnellen. Leviämismalliin syötettävä data voidaan kerätä kuukausittain ja operaattorikohtaisesti vaikuttamatta ennustetarkkuuteen. Dataan on sisällytettävä leviämiskäyrän käännöskohta, eli pitkän aikavälin huippukysyntäpiste.