Picking the Right Budget Constraint for Scotland

This position paper considers the devolution of further fiscal powers to the Scottish Parliament in the context of the objectives and remit of the Smith Commission. The argument builds on our discussion of fiscal decentralization made in our previous published work on this topic. We ask what sort of budget constraint the Scottish Parliament should operate with. A soft budget constraint (SBC) allows the Scottish Parliament to spend without having to consider all of the tax and, therefore, political consequences, of that spending, which is effectively the position at the moment. The incentives to promote economic growth through fiscal policy – on both the tax and spending sides are weak to non-existent. This is what the Scotland Act, 1998, and the continuing use of the Barnett block grant, gave Scotland. Now other budget constraints are being discussed – those of the Calman Commission (2009) and the Scotland Act (2012), as well as the ones offered in 2014 by the various political parties – Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Greens, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Government. There is also the budget constraint designed by the Holtham Commission (2010) for Wales that could just as well be used in Scotland. We examine to what extent these offer the hard budget constraint (HBC) that would bring tax policy firmly into the realm of Scottish politics, asking the Scottish electorate and Parliament to consider the costs to them of increasing spending in terms of higher taxes; or the benefits to them of using public spending to grow the tax base and own-sourced taxes? The hardest budget constraint of all is offered by independence but, as is now known, a clear majority of those who voted in the referendum did not vote for this form of budget constraint. Rather they voted for a significant further devolution of fiscal powers while remaining within a political and monetary union with the rest of the UK, with the risk pooling and revenue sharing that this implies. It is not surprising therefore that none of the budget constraints on offer, apart from the SNP’s, come close to the HBC of independence. However, the almost 25% fall in the price of oil since the referendum, a resource stream so central to the SNP’s economic policy making, underscores why there is a need for a trade off between a HBC and risk pooling and revenue sharing. Ranked according to the desirable characteristic of offering something approaching a HBC the least desirable are those of the Calman Commission, the Scotland Act, 2012, and Scottish Labour. In all of these the ‘elasticity’ of the block grant in the face of failure to grow the Scottish tax base is either not defined or is very elastic – meaning that the risk of failure is shuffled off to taxpayers outside of Scotland. The degree of HBC in the Scottish Conservative, Scottish Greens and Scottish Liberal Democrats proposals are much more desirable from an economic growth point of view, the latter even embracing the HBC proposed by the Holtham Commission that combines serious tax policy with welfare support in the long-run. We judge that the budget constraint in the SNP’s proposals is too hard as it does not allow for continuation of the ‘welfare union’ in the UK. We also consider that in the case of a generalized UK economic slow requiring a fiscal stimulus that the Scottish Parliament be allowed increased borrowing to be repaid in the next economic upturn.

Mass effects mediate coexistence in competing shrews.

Recent developments in metacommunity theory have raised awareness that processes occurring at regional scales might interfere with local dynamics and affect conditions for the local coexistence of competing species. Four main paradigms are recognized in this context (namely, neutral, patch-dynamics, species-sorting, and mass-effect), which differ according to the role assigned to ecological or life-history differences among competing species, as well as to the relative time scale of regional vs. local dynamics. We investigated the patterns of regional and local coexistence of two species of shrews (Crocidura russula and Sorex coronatus) sharing a similar diet (generalist insectivores) over four generations, in a spatially structured habitat at the altitudinal limit of their distributions. Local populations were small, and regional dynamics were strong, with high rates of extinction and recolonization. Niche analysis revealed significant habitat differentiation on a few important variables, including temperature and availability of winter resting sites. In sites suitable for both species, we found instances of local coexistence with no evidence of competitive exclusion. Patterns of temporal succession did not differ from random, with no suggestion of a colonization-competition trade-off. Altogether, our data provide support for the mass-effect paradigm, where regional coexistence is mediated by specialization on different habitat types, and local coexistence by rescue effects from source sites. The strong regional dynamics and demographic stochasticity, together with high dispersal rates, presumably contributed to mass effects by overriding local differences in specific competitive abilities.

Real-time PCR for type-specific identification of herpes simplex in clinical samples: evaluation of type-specific results in the context of CNS diseases.

BACKGROUND: HSV-1 and HSV-2 cause CNS infections of dissimilar clinico-pathological characteristics with prognostic and therapeutic implications. OBJECTIVES: To validate a type-specific real-time PCR that uses MGB/LNA Taqman probes and to review the virologico-clinical data of 25 eligible patients with non-neonatal CNS infections. RESULTS: This real-time PCR was evaluated against conventional PCR (26 CSF and 20 quality controls), and LightCycler assay (51 mucocutaneous, 8 CSF and 32 quality controls) and culture/immunofluorescence (75 mucocutaneous) to assess typing with independent methods. Taqman real-time PCR detected 240 HSV genomes per ml CSF, a level appropriate for the management of patients, and provided unambiguous typing for the 104 positive (62 HSV-1 and 42 HSV-2) out the 160 independent clinical samples tested. HSV type diagnosed by Taqman real-time PCR predicted final diagnosis (meningitis versus encephalitis/meningoencephalitis, p<0.001) in 24/25 patients at time of presentation, in contrast to clinical evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Our real-time PCR, as a sensitive and specific means for type-specific HSV diagnosis, provided rapid prognostic information for patient management.

Context-dependent interpretation of the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The mutation status of the BRAF and KRAS genes has been proposed as prognostic biomarker in colorectal cancer. Of them, only the BRAF V600E mutation has been validated independently as prognostic for overall survival and survival after relapse, while the prognostic value of KRAS mutation is still unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in various contexts defined by stratifications of the patient population. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer from the PETACC-3 clinical trial (N = 1,423), by assessing the prognostic value of the BRAF and KRAS mutations in subpopulations defined by all possible combinations of the following clinico-pathological variables: T stage, N stage, tumor site, tumor grade and microsatellite instability status. In each such subpopulation, the prognostic value was assessed by log rank test for three endpoints: overall survival, relapse-free survival, and survival after relapse. The significance level was set to 0.01 for Bonferroni-adjusted p-values, and a second threshold for a trend towards statistical significance was set at 0.05 for unadjusted p-values. The significance of the interactions was tested by Wald test, with significance level of 0.05. RESULTS: In stage II-III colorectal cancer, BRAF mutation was confirmed a marker of poor survival only in subpopulations involving microsatellite stable and left-sided tumors, with higher effects than in the whole population. There was no evidence for prognostic value in microsatellite instable or right-sided tumor groups. We found that BRAF was also prognostic for relapse-free survival in some subpopulations. We found no evidence that KRAS mutations had prognostic value, although a trend was observed in some stratifications. We also show evidence of heterogeneity in survival of patients with BRAF V600E mutation. CONCLUSIONS: The BRAF mutation represents an additional risk factor only in some subpopulations of colorectal cancers, in others having limited prognostic value. However, in the subpopulations where it is prognostic, it represents a marker of much higher risk than previously considered. KRAS mutation status does not seem to represent a strong prognostic variable.

Nash equilibrium strategies in discrete-time finite-horizon dynamic games with risk-and effort-averse players

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the risk-and effort attitude in the context of strategic dynamic interactions stated as a discrete-time finite-horizon Nash game. The analysis is based on the assumption that players are endogenously risk-and effort-averse. Each player is characterized by distinct risk-and effort-aversion types that are unknown to his opponent. The goal of the game is the optimal risk-and effort-sharing between the players. It generally depends on the individual strategies adopted and, implicitly, on the the players' types or characteristics.

Investor protection and income inequality: risk sharing vs risk taking

This paper studies the relationship between investor protection, entrepreneurial risk taking and income inequality. In the presence of market frictions, better protection makes investors more willing to take on entrepreneurial risk when lending to firms, thereby improving the degree of risk sharing between financiers and entrepreneurs. On the other hand, by increasing risk sharing, investor protection also induces more firms to undertake risky projects. By increasing entrepreneurial risk taking, it raises income dispersion. By reducing the risk faced by entrepreneurs, it reduces income volatility. As a result, investor protection raises income inequality to the extent that it fosters risk taking, while it reduces it for a given level of risk taking. Empirical evidence from a panel of forty-five countries spanning the period 1976-2000 supports the predictions of the model.

The value of selected in vitro and in silico methods to predict acute oral toxicity in a regulatory context: results from the European Project ACuteTox.

ACuteTox is a project within the 6th European Framework Programme which had as one of its goals to develop, optimise and prevalidate a non-animal testing strategy for predicting human acute oral toxicity. In its last 6 months, a challenging exercise was conducted to assess the predictive capacity of the developed testing strategies and final identification of the most promising ones. Thirty-two chemicals were tested blind in the battery of in vitro and in silico methods selected during the first phase of the project. This paper describes the classification approaches studied: single step procedures and two step tiered testing strategies. In summary, four in vitro testing strategies were proposed as best performing in terms of predictive capacity with respect to the European acute oral toxicity classification. In addition, a heuristic testing strategy is suggested that combines the prediction results gained from the neutral red uptake assay performed in 3T3 cells, with information on neurotoxicity alerts identified by the primary rat brain aggregates test method. Octanol-water partition coefficients and in silico prediction of intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier passage are also considered. This approach allows to reduce the number of chemicals wrongly predicted as not classified (LD50>2000 mg/kg b.w.).

Influència del context geològic i hidrogeològic en l'eficiència energètica dels sistemes geotèrmics de molt baixa entalpia

L’elevat consum energètic de les societats actuals, així com la impossibilitat de sostenir-lo a llarg termini implica la cerca de noves fonts d’energia. D’aquesta manera, en el camp de la climatització residencial, l’energia geotèrmica de molt baixa entalpia es posiciona com una alternativa als recursos energètics actuals. Així, els primers metres de subsòl presenten una temperatura adequada per al seu aprofitament calorífic, mitjançant els sistemes geotèrmics de bomba de calor. Si bé a nivell energètic, són sistemes, intrínsecament, molt eficients, el seu rendiment pot patir importants variacions davant dels canvis en les condicions del medi geològic i hidrogeològic. Especialment, els col·lectors de calor verticals, treballen, amb freqüència, en el si de les formacions hidrogeològiques. En aquest sentit, els canvis del nivell hidràulic i de la temperatura de l’aigua de l’aqüífer es manifesten amb variacions de la conductivitat tèrmica equivalent i del flux subterrani d’aigua, que alhora, aquestes, es tradueixen en alteracions del flux subterrani de calor. Davant d’aquest fet, l’avaluació quantitativa de l’efecte d’aquestes fluctuacions que es presenta en aquest treball mostra petites variacions del nivell hidràulic i de la temperatura de l’aigua comporten canvis molt notables en l’eficiència dels sistemes verticals de bomba de calor geotèrmica.

A UV signal of offspring condition mediates context-dependent parental favouritism.

As fitness returns during a breeding attempt are context-dependent, parents are predicted to bias their food allocation within a brood from poor towards good condition nestlings when environmental conditions deteriorate. We tested this prediction in the Alpine swift and the European starling, two migratory bird species, by modifying an ultraviolet (UV) visual signal of condition in nestlings and exploring how parents allocate food to their young as the season progresses. We show in both species that: (i) UV light reflected by the body skin of offspring positively correlates with their stature (i.e. body mass and skeletal size) and (ii) parental favouritism towards young with more UV reflective skin gradually increases as the season progresses. Early-breeding parents supplied food preferentially to UV pale (i.e. small stature) nestlings, whereas late-breeding parents favoured UV bright offspring (i.e. large stature). These results emphasize that parents use UV signals of offspring condition to adjust their feeding strategies depending on the ecological context.

Analyzing complexity in foreign language monologic oral production in a CLIL context

The study tested three analytic tools applied in SLA research (T-unit, AS-unit and Idea-unit) against FL learner monologic oral data. The objective was to analyse their effectiveness for the assessment of complexity of learners' academic production in English. The data were learners' individual productions gathered during the implementation of a CLIL teaching sequence on Natural Sciences in a Catalan state secondary school. The analysis showed that only AS-unit was easily applicable and highly effective in segmenting the data and taking complexity measures