Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

Morphometric analysis and taxonomic revision of the Vriesea paraibica complex (Bromeliaceae)

The species related to Vriesea paraibica (Bromeliaceae, Tillandsioideae) have controversial taxonomic limits. For several decades, this group has been identified in herbarium collections as V. x morreniana, an artificial hybrid that does not grow in natural habitats. The aim of this study was to assess the morphological variation in the V. paraibica complex through morphometric analyses of natural populations. Two sets of analyses were performed: the first involved six natural populations (G1) and the second was carried out on taxa that emerged from the first analysis, but using material from herbarium collections (G2). Univariate ANOVA was used, as well as discriminant analysis of 16 morphometric variables in G1 and 18 in G2. The results of the analyses of the two groups were similar and led to the selection of diagnostic traits of four species. Lengths of the lower and median floral bracts were significant for the separation of red and yellow floral bracts. Vriesea paraibica and V. interrogatoria have red bracts; these two species are differentiated by the widths of the lower and median portions of the inflorescence and by scape length. These structures are larger in the former and smaller in the latter. Of the species with yellow floral bracts, V. eltoniana is distinguished by longer leaf blades and scapes and V. flava is characterized by its shorter sepal lengths. (C) 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 159, 163-181.

A Bayesian Analysis in the Presence of Covariates for Multivariate Survival Data: An example of Application

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian analysis for survival multivariate data in the presence of a covariate vector and censored observations. Different ""frailties"" or latent variables are considered to capture the correlation among the survival times for the same individual. We assume Weibull or generalized Gamma distributions considering right censored lifetime data. We develop the Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Bayesian analysis of skew-t multivariate null intercept measurement error model

The multivariate skew-t distribution (J Multivar Anal 79:93-113, 2001; J R Stat Soc, Ser B 65:367-389, 2003; Statistics 37:359-363, 2003) includes the Student t, skew-Cauchy and Cauchy distributions as special cases and the normal and skew-normal ones as limiting cases. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis of repeated measures, pretest/post-test data, under multivariate null intercept measurement error model (J Biopharm Stat 13(4):763-771, 2003) where the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a Student t and skew-t distribution, respectively. The results and methods are numerically illustrated with an example in the field of dentistry.

Bayesian analysis for a skew extension of the multivariate null intercept measurement error model

Skew-normal distribution is a class of distributions that includes the normal distributions as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in a multivariate, null intercept, measurement error model [R. Aoki, H. Bolfarine, J.A. Achcar, and D. Leao Pinto Jr, Bayesian analysis of a multivariate null intercept error-in -variables regression model, J. Biopharm. Stat. 13(4) (2003b), pp. 763-771] where the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a skew-normal distribution. The results and methods are applied to a real dental clinical trial presented in [A. Hadgu and G. Koch, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial, J. Biopharm. Stat. 9 (1999), pp. 161-178].

Multivariate Analysis for the Classification Differentiation of Brazilian Sugarcane Spirits by Analysis of Organic and Inorganic Compounds

Brazilian sugarcane spirits were analyzed to elucidate similarities and dissimilarities by principal component analysis. Nine aldehydes, six alcohols, and six metal cations were identified and quantified. Isobutanol (LD 202.9 mu gL-1), butiraldehyde (0.08-0.5 mu gL-1), ethanol (39-47% v/v), and copper (371-6068 mu gL-1) showed marked similarities, but the concentration levels of n-butanol (1.6-7.3 mu gL-1), sec-butanol (LD 89 mu gL-1), formaldehyde (0.1-0.74 mu gL-1), valeraldehyde (0.04-0.31 mu gL-1), iron (8.6-139.1 mu gL-1), and magnesium (LD 1149 mu gL-1) exhibited differences from samples.

Variation of System Performance with Design and Climate for Combisystems in Sweden

In Sweden, 90% of the solar heating systems are solar domestic hot water and heating systems (SDHW&H), so called combisystems. These generally supply most of the domestic hot water needs during the summer and have enough capacity to supply some energy to the heating system during spring and autumn. This paper describes a standard Swedish combisystem and how the output from it varies with heating load, climate within Sweden, and how it can be increased with improved system design. A base case is defined using the standard combi- system, a modern Swedish single family house and the climate of Stockholm. Using the simulation program Trnsys, parametric studies have been performed on the base case and improved system designs. The solar fraction could be increased from 17.1% for the base case to 22.6% for the best system design, given the same system size, collector type and load. A short analysis of the costs of changed system design is given, showing that payback times for additional investment are from 5-8 years. Measurements on system components in the laboratory have been used to verify the simulation models used. More work is being carried out in order to find even better system designs, and further improvements in system performance are expected.

Do crude oil price changes affect economic growth of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh? : A multivariate time series analysis

This paper analyzes empirically the effect of crude oil price change on the economic growth of Indian-Subcontinent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh). We use a multivariate Vector Autoregressive analysis followed by Wald Granger causality test and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Wald Granger causality test results show that only India���s economic growth is significantly affected when crude oil price decreases. Impact of crude oil price increase is insignificantly negative for all three countries during first year. In second year, impact is negative but smaller than first year for India, negative but larger for Bangladesh and positive for Pakistan.

Solar PV Powered Air Conditioner Analysis for an Office/Classroom in a Tropical Climate

This thesis focuses on using photovoltaic produced electricity to power air conditioners in a tropical climate. The study takes place in Surabaya, Indonesia at two different locations the classroom, located at the UBAYA campus and the home office, 10 km away. Indonesia has an average solar irradiation of about 4.8 kWh/m��/day (PWC Indonesia, 2013) which is for ideal conditions for these tests. At the home office, tests were conducted on different photovoltaic systems. A series of measuring devices recorded the performance of the 800 W PV system and the consumption of the 1.35 kW air conditioner (cooling capacity). To have an off grid system many of the components need to be oversized. The inverter has to be oversized to meet the startup load of the air conditioner, which can be 3 to 8 times the operating power (Rozenblat, 2013). High energy consumption of the air conditioner would require a large battery storage to provide one day of autonomy. The PV systems output must at least match the consumption of the air conditioner. A grid connect system provides a much better solution with the 800 W PV system providing 80 % of the 3.5 kWh load of the air conditioner, the other 20 % coming from the grid during periods of low irradiation. In this system the startup load is provided by the grid so the inverter does not need to be oversized. With the grid-connected system, the PV panel���s production does not need to match the consumption of the air conditioner, although a smaller PV array will mean a smaller percentage of the load will be covered by PV. Using the results from the home office tests and results from measurements made in the classroom. Two different PV systems (8 kW and 12 kW) were simulated to power both the current air conditioners (COP 2.78) and new air conditioners (COP 4.0). The payback period of the systems can vary greatly depending on if a feed in tariff is awarded or not. If the feed in tariff is awarded the best system is the 12 kW system, with a payback period of 4.3 years and a levelized cost of energy at -3,334 IDR/kWh. If the feed in tariff is not granted then the 8 kW system is the best choice with a lower payback period and lower levelized cost of energy than the 12 kW system under the same conditions.

Applying negotiation skills in the design of public policies: analysis of the city of S��o Paulo���s invoice program

The author argues that by applying problem-solving negotiation skills in the design of public policies, public administrators benefit from more effective and wide-ranging outcomes in the realization of their goals. In order to demonstrate this idea, the author analyzes how negotiation skills ��� such as identifying key actors and their interests, recognizing hardbargaining tactics and changing the players, knowing your best alternative, creating value and building trust ��� permeated and contributed to the success of the City of S��o Paulo���s Invoice Program (���Programa Nota Fiscal Paulistana���), a public policy aimed at combating tax evasion of service tax in the City of S��o Paulo.

Analysis of the ABC Program resources

This is the executive summary of the second of four reports that compose, among others, the activities of the second working year of the ABC Plan Observatory1 . It aims to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the ABC Program's performance ��� the main line of credit for the financing of low-carbon agriculture in Brazil. In addition to presenting high points of the results of the 2013/14 crop year, it also reveals a regional and state overview of the distribution of resources and a focus on the Legal Amazon situation regarding the adoption of low carbon agriculture methods in the region. The main theme for the analysis is the spatial distribution of the ABC Program's credit in the country and the reasons, bottlenecks and opportunities for the expansion of more sustainable production methods, especially regarding the conditions of Brazilian technical support and its activities among rural producers.