Estimating cause-specfic mortality from community- and facility-based data sources in the United Republic of Tanzania: options and implications for mortality burden estimates

Objective To compare mortality burden estimates based on direct measurement of levels and causes in communities with indirect estimates based on combining health facility cause-specific mortality structures with community measurement of mortality levels. Methods. Data from sentinel vital registration (SVR) with verbal autopsy (VA) were used to determine the cause-specific mortality burden at the community level in two areas of the United Republic of Tanzania. Proportional cause-specific mortality structures from health facilities were applied to counts of deaths obtained by SVR to produce modelled estimates. The burden was expressed in years of life lost. Findings. A total of 2884 deaths were recorded from health facilities and 2167 recorded from SVR/VAs. In the perinatal and neonatal age group cause-specific mortality rates were dominated by perinatal conditions and stillbirths in both the community and the facility data. The modelled estimates for chronic causes were very similar to those from SVR/VA. Acute febrile illnesses were coded more specifically in the facility data than in the VA. Injuries were more prevalent in the SVR/VA data than in that from the facilities. Conclusion. In this setting, improved International classification of diseases and health related problems, tenth revision (ICD-10) coding practices and applying facility-based cause structures to counts of deaths from communities, derived from SVR, appears to produce reasonable estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden in those aged 5 years and older determined directly from VA. For the perinatal and neonatal age group, VA appears to be required. Use of this approach in a nationally representative sample of facilities may produce reliable national estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden for leading causes of death in adults.

Evolutionary theory of history

Several attempts have been made recently to apply Darwinian evolutionary theory to the study of culture change and social history. The essential elements in such a theory are that variations occur in population, and that a process of selective retention operates during their replication and transmission. Location of such variable units in the semantic structure of cognition provides the individual psychological basis for an evolutionary theory of history. Selection operates on both the level of cognition and on its phenotypic expression in action in relation to individual preferred sources of psychological satisfaction. Social power comprises the principal selective forces within the unintended consequences of action and through the struggle of individuals and groups in pursuit of opposing interests. The implication for historiography are methodological in that evolutionary theory of history sharpens the focus of explanatory situational analysis, and interpretive in that it provides a paradigmatic metanarrative for the understanding of historical change.

Using secondary knowledge to support decision tree classification of retrospective clinical data

Retrospective clinical data presents many challenges for data mining and machine learning. The transcription of patient records from paper charts and subsequent manipulation of data often results in high volumes of noise as well as a loss of other important information. In addition, such datasets often fail to represent expert medical knowledge and reasoning in any explicit manner. In this research we describe applying data mining methods to retrospective clinical data to build a prediction model for asthma exacerbation severity for pediatric patients in the emergency department. Difficulties in building such a model forced us to investigate alternative strategies for analyzing and processing retrospective data. This paper describes this process together with an approach to mining retrospective clinical data by incorporating formalized external expert knowledge (secondary knowledge sources) into the classification task. This knowledge is used to partition the data into a number of coherent sets, where each set is explicitly described in terms of the secondary knowledge source. Instances from each set are then classified in a manner appropriate for the characteristics of the particular set. We present our methodology and outline a set of experiential results that demonstrate some advantages and some limitations of our approach. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

The integration of multi-source data to improve the classification of remotely sensed images

The number of remote sensing platforms and sensors rises almost every year, yet much work on the interpretation of land cover is still carried out using either single images or images from the same source taken at different dates. Two questions could be asked of this proliferation of images: can the information contained in different scenes be used to improve the classification accuracy and, what is the best way to combine the different imagery? Two of these multiple image sources are MODIS on the Terra platform and ETM+ on board Landsat7, which are suitably complementary. Daily MODIS images with 36 spectral bands in 250-1000 m spatial resolution and seven spectral bands of ETM+ with 30m and 16 days spatial and temporal resolution respectively are available. In the UK, cloud cover may mean that only a few ETM+ scenes may be available for any particular year and these may not be at the time of year of most interest. The MODIS data may provide information on land cover over the growing season, such as harvest dates, that is not present in the ETM+ data. Therefore, the primary objective of this work is to develop a methodology for the integration of medium spatial resolution Landsat ETM+ image, with multi-temporal, multi-spectral, low-resolution MODIS \Terra images, with the aim of improving the classification of agricultural land. Additionally other data may also be incorporated such as field boundaries from existing maps. When classifying agricultural land cover of the type seen in the UK, where crops are largely sown in homogenous fields with clear and often mapped boundaries, the classification is greatly improved using the mapped polygons and utilising the classification of the polygon as a whole as an apriori probability in classifying each individual pixel using a Bayesian approach. When dealing with multiple images from different platforms and dates it is highly unlikely that the pixels will be exactly co-registered and these pixels will contain a mixture of different real world land covers. Similarly the different atmospheric conditions prevailing during the different days will mean that the same emission from the ground will give rise to different sensor reception. Therefore, a method is presented with a model of the instantaneous field of view and atmospheric effects to enable different remote sensed data sources to be integrated.

Leadership through intellect:the meaning of leadership in the intellectual history of nineteenth and early twentieth century Germany

This study examines the understanding of leadership in Germany, as it developed throughout the nineteenth and early twentieth century. The investigation is based on the work of contemporary writers and thinkers, as well as on the leadership styles of key political figures. Given the ideological connotations of the term "Führung" in post-war Germany, the aim is to reconsider the meaning of leadership, with particular reference to the alternative notion of spiritual guidance. The rise to power of Napoleon I fundamentally influenced the understanding of leadership in Germany, as is demonstrated through an analysis of the Napoleonic reception in contemporary literature. Despite polarised responses, the formation of the heroic ideal may be identified, the quest for spiritual guidance having become subordinate to the charismatic legitimisation of political authority. As advocated by Thomas Carlyle, the mid to late nineteenth century witnessed the realisation of this ideal through Bismarck. The intellectual response to this development is characterised by the work of Wagner, Burckhardt and Nietzsche. In different ways each figure emphasised the need to redefine greatness and to seek spiritual guidance from alternative sources. The reflection on leadership in the early twentieth century is traced through the work of Harry Graf Kessler and the circles around Stefan George. Hitherto unpublished material is examined, revealing both the influences of nineteenth century thought and reactions to the "persönliches Regiment" of Wilhelm II. The intellectual debate culminates in Max Kommerell's 1928 study Der Dichter als Führer. Read in conjunction with unpublished notes and correspondence, this provides new insights into Kommerell's thought. The concept of poetic leadership constitutes a potential spiritual and intellectual alternative to the ideal of the political "Führer" which dominated the forthcoming era. It therefore remains of contemporary significance and may contribute to a broader discussion of the leadership dilemma in modern Germany.

Research strategies for organizational history:a dialogue between historical theory and organization theory

If history matters for organization theory, then we need greater reflexivity regarding the epistemological problem of representing the past; otherwise, history might be seen as merely a repository of ready-made data. To facilitate this reflexivity, we set out three epistemological dualisms derived from historical theory to explain the relationship between history and organization theory: (1) in the dualism of explanation, historians are preoccupied with narrative construction, whereas organization theorists subordinate narrative to analysis; (2) in the dualism of evidence, historians use verifiable documentary sources, whereas organization theorists prefer constructed data; and (3) in the dualism of temporality, historians construct their own periodization, whereas organization theorists treat time as constant for chronology. These three dualisms underpin our explication of four alternative research strategies for organizational history: corporate history, consisting of a holistic, objectivist narrative of a corporate entity; analytically structured history, narrating theoretically conceptualized structures and events; serial history, using replicable techniques to analyze repeatable facts; and ethnographic history, reading documentary sources "against the grain." Ultimately, we argue that our epistemological dualisms will enable organization theorists to justify their theoretical stance in relation to a range of strategies in organizational history, including narratives constructed from documentary sources found in organizational archives. Copyright of the Academy of Management, all rights reserved.

Branching Stochastic Processes: History, Theory, Applications

Косто В. Митов - Разклоняващите се стохастични процеси са модели на популационната динамика на обекти, които имат случайно време на живот и произвеждат потомци в съответствие с дадени вероятностни закони. Типични примери са ядрените реакции, клетъчната пролиферация, биологичното размножаване, някои химични реакции, икономически и финансови явления. В този обзор сме се опитали да представим съвсем накратко някои от най-важните моменти и факти от историята, теорията и приложенията на разклоняващите се процеси.

A history of a policy-level curriculum change in California

With the publication of A Nation at Risk (1983) educational reform has had a prominent place on the agenda of virtually every one of the sovereign states. As in many other states California focused much of its reform effort on the teaching of reading. In a political battle over the reading curriculum, California went from the English/Language Arts Framework of 1987, widely viewed as giving the state's imprimatur to whole language (an approach rooted in the learner's experience), to the English/Language Arts Frameworks (a more traditional or basic approach) of 1998 that called for the inclusion of phonemic awareness as the building block of reading instruction in all elementary schools. This study examined the historical record to determine the major forces behind this curriculum change. The results of this study are helpful to those who wish to better understand the relationship between political forces and curriculum change in the current age of educational reform. ^ This study utilized qualitative research methods and is presented as humanistic historical research (Landes & Tilly, 1971). The organizational framework for the study is taken from the work of M. Frances Klein (1991) which identifies seven different levels of curriculum decision-making. In this analysis particular attention was paid to the interaction of academic, formal, and societal levels, as the problem under consideration casts curriculum decision-making in the political realm. Three sources of information were used to provide the historical record. They include articles from popular newspapers and magazines, government documents, and interviews with individuals directly involved in the political process. ^ The results of this study demonstrate the power of societal forces over formal authority in making curriculum policy decisions. ^

U.S. Army front line artillery observation during the 1945 Okinawa campaign: An oral history case study

This dissertation explores the role of artillery forward observation teams during the battle of Okinawa (April–June 1945). It addresses a variety of questions associated with this front line artillery support. First, it examines the role of artillery itself in the American victory over the Japanese on Okinawa. Second, it traces the history of the forward observer in the three decades before the end of World War II. Third, it defines the specific role of the forward observation teams during the battle: what they did and how they did it during this three-month duel. Fourth, it deals with the particular problems of the forward observer. These included coordination with the local infantry commander, adjusting to the periodic rotation between the front lines and the artillery battery behind the line of battle, responding to occasional problems with "friendly fire" (American artillery falling on American ground forces), dealing with personnel turnover in the teams (due to death, wounds, and illness), and finally, developing a more informal relationship between officers and enlisted men to accommodate the reality of this recently created combat assignment. Fifth, it explores the experiences of a select group of men who served on (or in proximity to) forward observation teams on Okinawa. Previous scholars and popular historians of the battle have emphasized the role of Marines, infantrymen, and flame-throwing armor. This work offers a different perspective on the battle and it uses new sources as well. A pre-existing archive of interviews with Okinawan campaign forward observer team members conducted in the 1990s forms the core of the oral history component of this research project. The verbal accounts were checked against and supplemented by a review of unit reports obtained from the U.S. National Archives and various secondary sources. The dissertation concludes that an understanding of American artillery observation is critical to a more complete comprehension of the battle of Okinawa. These mid-ranking (and largely middle class) soldiers proved capable of adjusting to the demands of combat conditions. They provide a unique and understudied perspective of the entire battle.

Consulting Services to Determine the Effectiveness of Vegetation Classification Using WorldView 2 Satellite Data for the Greater Everglades

The purpose of this project was to evaluate the use of remote sensing 1) to detect and map Everglades wetland plant communities at different scales; and 2) to compare map products delineated and resampled at various scales with the intent to quantify and describe the quantitative and qualitative differences between such products. We evaluated data provided by Digital Globe’s WorldView 2 (WV2) sensor with a spatial resolution of 2m and data from Landsat’s Thematic and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (TM and ETM+) sensors with a spatial resolution of 30m. We were also interested in the comparability and scalability of products derived from these data sources. The adequacy of each data set to map wetland plant communities was evaluated utilizing two metrics: 1) model-based accuracy estimates of the classification procedures; and 2) design-based post-classification accuracy estimates of derived maps.

Sedimentology of the northwestern Weddel Sea continental shelf and slope

Geologie cores on two profiles oriented normaly to the continental shelf and slope, have been investigated to reconstruct the Quaternary sedimentary history of the southeast continental border of South Orkney (NW Weddell Sea). The sediments were described macroscopically and their fabric investigated by use of X-radiographs. Laboratory work comprised detailed grain-size analysis, determination of the watercontent, carbonate, organic carbon and sand fraction.composition. Stable oxygen and carbon isotopes have been measured On planktonic foraminifera. Palaeomagnetism, analysis of 230Th-content and detailed comparison of the lithlogic Parameters with the oxygen isotope stages (Martinson curve) were used for stratigraphic classification of the sediments. The sediment cores from the continental slope comprise a maximum age of 300,000 years B. P.. Bottom currents, ice rafting and biogenic input are the main sources of sediment. Based on lithologic parameters a distinction between glacial and interglacial facies is possible. Silty clays without microfossils and few bioturbation characterise the sediments of the glacial facies. Only small amounts of icerafted debris can be recognized. This type of sediment was accumulated during times of lower sea-level and drastically reduced rate of bottom water production. Based on grain-size distribution, bottom current velocities of 0.01 cmls were calculated. Thick sea-ice coverage reduced biogenic production in the surface water, and as consequence benthic communities were depleted. Because of the reduced benthic life, sediments are only slithly bioturbated. At the beginning of the interglacial Stage, the sea-level rised rapidly, and calving rate of icebergs, combined with input of ice-rafted material, increased considerably. Sediments of this transition facies are silty cliiys with a high proportion of coarse ice-rafted debris, but without microfossils. With the onset of bottom water production in connection with shelf ice water, sediments of interglacial facies were formed. They consist of silty clays to clayey silts with considerable content of sand and gravel. Sediments are strongly bioturbated. Based On the sediment caracteristics, current velocities of the bottom water were calculated to be of 0.96 cmls for interglacials. At the southern slope of a NW/SE-striking ridge, bottom water current is channelized, resulting in a drastic increase of current velocities. Current velocities up to 7.5 cm/s lead to formation of residual sediments. While the continental slope has predominantly fine sediments, the South Orkney shelf are mainly sandy silts and silty sands with a high proportion of gravel. These sediments were formed dominantly by ice-rafting during Brunhes- and Matuyama-Epoch. Currents removed the fine fraction of the sediments. Based on microfossil contents it was not possible to differentiate sediments from glacial to interglacial. In the upper Parts of the cores graded sequences truncated by erosion were observed. These sequences were formed during Brunhes-Epoch by strong currents with velocities decreasing periodically from about 7.5 cm/s to about 1 cm/s. Sediments with a high proportion of siliceous microfossils but barren of foraminifera compose the lower part of the shelf cores. These sediments have formed during the warmer Matuyama-Epoch.

Análisis y reformulación de la organización del conocimiento en las Ciencias de la Comunicación: aplicación para la codificación UNESCO

Se estudia la codificación y organización del campo de las Ciencias de la Comunicación, fundamentalmente los códigos Unesco. El objetivo es plantear un cambio en estos códigos, puesto que la forma de clasificar y organizar un dominio científico tiene consecuencias de naturaleza operativa y epistemológica en el propio trabajo científico. En este trabajo se estudia la clasificación actual, que muestra una presencia escasa y dispersa de los términos vinculados a Comunicación. Se describen las dificultades prácticas y teóricas que conlleva su reorganización, las posibles fuentes (planes de estudio, congresos, revistas científicas, propuestas documentales y palabras clave) y los métodos de trabajo que se pueden emplear, tomando como bases teóricas el dominio de la Organización del Conocimiento y el de la Comunicación. Por último, se analizan dos ámbitos disciplinares diferentes (Historia de la Comunicación y Tecnologías de la Comunicación), mediante la información recogida, en una base de datos, de asignaturas en grado y en másteres oficiales de 12 universidades españolas. También se observa que este tipo de propuesta requiere el conocimiento derivado de instrumentos documentales como las clasificaciones y los tesauros.

The magical transformation contest in the ancient storytelling tradition

El concurso de transformación mágica, esquema narrativo difundido en la tradición popular, se presenta en dos variantes principales: los hechiceros que compiten pueden metamorfosearse en varios seres o crear esos seres por medios mágicos. En cualquier caso el concursante ganador da a luz criaturas más fuertes que superan las de su oponente. La segunda variante fue preferida en el antiguo Cercano Oriente (Sumeria, Egipto, Israel). La primera se puede encontrar en algunos mitos griegos sobre cambiadores de forma (por ejemplo, Zeus y Némesis). El mismo esquema narrativo puede haber influido en un episodio de la Novela de Alejandro (1.36-38), en el que Darío envía regalos simbólicos a Alejandro y los dos monarcas enemigos ofrecen contrastantes explicaciones de ellos. Esta historia griega racionaliza el concurso de cuento de hadas, transfiriendo las fantásticas hazañas de creaciones milagrosas a un plano secundario pero realista de metáfora lingüística.

¿Fue la crisis política del Occidente musulmán del siglo XIII debida a un cambio climático? Una aproximación histórica al fin del Periodo Cálido Medieval

Durante el siglo XIII se produjo una sucesión de revueltas que supuso la desaparición del Imperio almohade y su sustitución por poderes regionales en al-Andalus, el Magreb y el Magreb al-Aqsà. La historiografía ha presentado el surgimiento y pugna entre estos poderes como un fenómeno social, político e, incluso, cultural y religioso, con el que se ha podido explicar su aniquilación o marginalización. Este trabajo pretende contextualizar los hechos desde una perspectiva medioambiental, de forma que la desintegración del califato almohade, el surgimiento de aquellos poderes y la progresión de los reinos cristianos en la península ibérica puedan entenderse desde una visión global de cambio climático y una posible crisis agrícola.