Frequency of human platelet antigens in oncohematological patients with thrombocytopenia and the probability of incompatibility to platelet transfusions

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the frequencies of human platelet antigens in oncohematological patients with thrombocytopenia and to analyze the probability of their incompatibility with platelet transfusions. METHODS: Platelet antigen genotyping was performed by sequence-specific primer polymerase chain reaction (SSP-PCR) for the HPA-1a, HPA-1b, HPA-2a, HPA-2b, HPA-3a, HPA-3b, HPA-4a, HPA-4b, HPA-5a, HPA-5b; HPA-15a, HPA-15b alleles in 150 patients of the Hematology Service of the Hospital das Clínicas (FMUSP). RESULTS: The allele frequencies found were: HPA-1a: 0.837; HPA-1b: 0.163; HPA-2a: 0.830; HPA-2b: 0.170; HPA-3a: 0.700; HPA-3b: 0.300; HPA-4a: 1; HPA-4b: 0; HPA-5a: 0.887; HPA-5b: 0.113; HPA-15a: 0.457 and HPA-15b: 0.543. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the present study showed that the A allele is more common in the population than the B allele, except for HPA-15. This suggests that patients homozygous for the B allele are more predisposed to present alloimmunization and refractoriness to platelet transfusions by immune causes. Platelet genotyping could be of great value in the diagnosis of alloimmune thrombocytopenia and to provide compatible platelet concentrates for these patients.

3D probability tomography: theoretical developments and applications to high-resolution geophysical prospecting

The theory of the 3D multipole probability tomography method (3D GPT) to image source poles, dipoles, quadrupoles and octopoles, of a geophysical vector or scalar field dataset is developed. A geophysical dataset is assumed to be the response of an aggregation of poles, dipoles, quadrupoles and octopoles. These physical sources are used to reconstruct without a priori assumptions the most probable position and shape of the true geophysical buried sources, by determining the location of their centres and critical points of their boundaries, as corners, wedges and vertices. This theory, then, is adapted to the geoelectrical, gravity and self potential methods. A few synthetic examples using simple geometries and three field examples are discussed in order to demonstrate the notably enhanced resolution power of the new approach. At first, the application to a field example related to a dipole–dipole geoelectrical survey carried out in the archaeological park of Pompei is presented. The survey was finalised to recognize remains of the ancient Roman urban network including roads, squares and buildings, which were buried under the thick pyroclastic cover fallen during the 79 AD Vesuvius eruption. The revealed anomaly structures are ascribed to wellpreserved remnants of some aligned walls of Roman edifices, buried and partially destroyed by the 79 AD Vesuvius pyroclastic fall. Then, a field example related to a gravity survey carried out in the volcanic area of Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy) is presented, aimed at imaging as accurately as possible the differential mass density structure within the first few km of depth inside the volcanic apparatus. An assemblage of vertical prismatic blocks appears to be the most probable gravity model of the Etna apparatus within the first 5 km of depth below sea level. Finally, an experimental SP dataset collected in the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius volcanic district (Naples, Italy) is elaborated in order to define location and shape of the sources of two SP anomalies of opposite sign detected in the northwestern sector of the surveyed area. The modelled sources are interpreted as the polarization state induced by an intense hydrothermal convective flow mechanism within the volcanic apparatus, from the free surface down to about 3 km of depth b.s.l..

FRAX® assessment of osteoporotic fracture probability in Switzerland

A Swiss-specific FRAX model was developed. Patient profiles at increased probability of fracture beyond currently accepted reimbursement thresholds for bone mineral density (BMD) measurement by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and osteoporosis treatment were identified.

A Bootstrap Test for the Probability of Ruin in the Compound Poisson Risk Process

In this article we propose a bootstrap test for the probability of ruin in the compound Poisson risk process. We adopt the P-value approach, which leads to a more complete assessment of the underlying risk than the probability of ruin alone. We provide second-order accurate P-values for this testing problem and consider both parametric and nonparametric estimators of the individual claim amount distribution. Simulation studies show that the suggested bootstrap P-values are very accurate and outperform their analogues based on the asymptotic normal approximation.

A project-oriented course in probability and statistics for undergraduate electrical engineering students

An introductory course in probability and statistics for third-year and fourth-year electrical engineering students is described. The course is centered around several computer-based projects that are designed to achieve two objectives. First, the projects illustrate the course topics and provide hands-on experience for the students. The second and equally important objective of the projects is to convey the relevance and usefulness of probability and statistics to practical problems that undergraduate students can appreciate. The benefit of this course as to motivate electrical engineering students to excel in the study of probability concepts, instead of viewing the subject as one more course requirement toward graduation. The authors co-teach the course, and MATLAB is used for mast of the computer-based projects

New Results Concerning Probability Distributions with Increasing Generalized Failure Rates

The generalized failure rate of a continuous random variable has demonstrable importance in operations management. If the valuation distribution of a product has an increasing generalized failure rate (that is, the distribution is IGFR), then the associated revenue function is unimodal, and when the generalized failure rate is strictly increasing, the global maximum is uniquely specified. The assumption that the distribution is IGFR is thus useful and frequently held in recent pricing, revenue, and supply chain management literature. This note contributes to the IGFR literature in several ways. First, it investigates the prevalence of the IGFR property for the left and right truncations of valuation distributions. Second, we extend the IGFR notion to discrete distributions and contrast it with the continuous distribution case. The note also addresses two errors in the previous IGFR literature. Finally, for future reference, we analyze all common (continuous and discrete) distributions for the prevalence of the IGFR property, and derive and tabulate their generalized failure rates.

MULTIPLE DISEASES IN CARRIER PROBABILITY ESTIMATION: ACCOUNTING FOR SURVIVING ALL CANCERS OTHER THAN BREAST AND OVARY IN BRCAPRO

Mendelian models can predict who carries an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history. For example, the BRCAPRO model is commonly used to identify families who carry mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, based on familial breast and ovarian cancers. These models incorporate the age of diagnosis of diseases in relatives and current age or age of death. We develop a rigorous foundation for handling multiple diseases with censoring. We prove that any disease unrelated to mutations can be excluded from the model, unless it is sufficiently common and dependent on a mutation-related disease time. Furthermore, if a family member has a disease with higher probability density among mutation carriers, but the model does not account for it, then the carrier probability is deflated. However, even if a family only has diseases the model accounts for, if the model excludes a mutation-related disease, then the carrier probability will be inflated. In light of these results, we extend BRCAPRO to account for surviving all non-breast/ovary cancers as a single outcome. The extension also enables BRCAPRO to extract more useful information from male relatives. Using 1500 familes from the Cancer Genetics Network, accounting for surviving other cancers improves BRCAPRO’s concordance index from 0.758 to 0.762 (p = 0.046), improves its positive predictive value from 35% to 39% (p < 10−6) without impacting its negative predictive value, and improves its overall calibration, although calibration slightly worsens for those with carrier probability < 10%. Copyright c 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Concordance Probability and Discriminatory Power in Proportional Hazards Regression

The concordance probability is used to evaluate the discriminatory power and the predictive accuracy of nonlinear statistical models. We derive an analytic expression for the concordance probability in the Cox proportional hazards model. The proposed estimator is a function of the regression parameters and the covariate distribution only and does not use the observed event and censoring times. For this reason it is asymptotically unbiased, unlike Harrell's c-index based on informative pairs. The asymptotic distribution of the concordance probability estimate is derived using U-statistic theory and the methodology is applied to a predictive model in lung cancer.