Undercoverage and Nonresponse in a List-sampled Telephone Election Survey

For landline telephone surveys in particular, undercoverage has been a growing problem. However, research regarding the relative contributions of socio-demographic bias and other composition effects is scarce. We propose to address this issue by analyzing an election survey which used a sample from a register-based sampling frame containing basic socio-demographic information and to which telephone numbers were subsequently matched. With respect to socio-demographic representation of the final sample, we find that difficult to match groups are also difficult to contact, while those who cooperate tend to have different characteristics. We find bias due to undercoverage to be of greater magnitude than noncontact bias, while noncooperation falls between the two. As for substantive variables, both additional efforts to match missing telephone numbers and the construction of better weights are successful in closing the gap between survey estimates of voting behavior and true values from the election results.

Incumbency (dis)advantage when citizens can propose

This paper analyses the problem that an incumbent faces during the legislature when deciding how to react to citizen proposals such as the outcome of referenda or popular initiatives. We argue that these proposals constitute a potential source of electoral disadvantage when citizens factor in their evaluation of the incumbent his reaction to these proposals. This is because an incumbent politician may jeopardize his re-election by implementing policies close to his preferred ones but unpopular among the electorate. We characterize conditions under which this potential disadvantage becomes in fact an electoral advantage for the incumbent. We find that the choices of the incumbent during the legislature will be closest to citizens policy proposals when the intensity of electoral competition is neither too soft nor too tough. Finally, we use our results to discuss some implications of the use of mechanisms such as referenda and popular assemblies on electoral competition and on the incumbency advantage phenomenon.

Omistus, kontrolli ja päämies-agentti- ongelmat osakeyhtiössä

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää osakeyhtiön määräysvaltasuhteet ja miten päämies-agentti- ongelmat vaikeuttavat määräysvallan käyttöä. Tutkimusmetodi on lainopillinen ja lähestyminen aiheeseen tapahtuu sekä yhtiöoikeudellisesta, että oikeustaloustieteellisestä näkökulmasta. Aineistona tutkielmassa käytetään lähinnä voimassa olevaa lainsäädäntöä ja oikeuskirjallisuutta. Päämies-agentti- ongelmalla tarkoitetaan osakeyhtiössä määräysvallan osittaista luisumista omistajalta (päämies) yritysjohdolle (agentti) tai vähemmistöomistajalta (päämies) kontrolloivalle omistajalle (agentti). Tärkeimpiä ongelman lähteitä ovat epäsymmetrinen informaatio ja intressiristiriidat yhtiön johdon ja omistajien välillä tai toisaalta yhtiötä lähellä olevien omistajien ja muiden omistajien välillä. Epäsymmetrinen informaatio luo osaltaan puitteet agenttitahojen opportunistiselle käyttäytymiselle. Ratkaisuja päämies-agentti- ongelmiin ovat ennen kaikkea päämiestahoja suojaava lainsäädäntö ja ulkoiset yritysjohtajien käyttäytymistä ohjaavat keinot, kuten erilaiset kannustinjärjestelmät ja hyvät hallintotavat. Kontrolloivien omistajien käyttäytymistä on puolestaan vaikea ohjata ja erilaisilla määräysvaltaa keskittävillä omistusrakenteilla onkin taipumus voimistaa päämies-agentti- ongelmien vaikutusta. Erityisiä tilanteita osaltaan luovat myös luonteiltaan erilaiset omistajatahot, kuten institutionaaliset omistajat.

Las reglas de la mayoría y Borda: un ejercicio de simulación

En el presente documento se describe un ejercicio de simulación orientado a facilitar la comprensión y asimilación del funcionamiento de la votación por mayoría y la regla de Borda. El ejercicio consiste en proponer a los alumnos que escojan entre dos proyectos (un programa de becas y una ampliación de las aulas de estudio) que presuntamente se van a realizar en la facultad en la que estudian. Para determinar qué proyecto se debería llevar a cabo se utiliza las reglas de la mayoría y Borda. Los alumnos deben responder a diversas rondas de votaciones donde el orden de la votación o agenda ha sido determinada por el instructor. El ejercicio es útil para exponer y debatir las cuestiones que se explican en un curso estándar de Hacienda Pública sobre el uso de la regla de la mayoría y la regla de Borda, como por ejemplo, la existencia de ciclos en los resultados de una votación, la posibilidad de condicionar el resultado de las votaciones mediante la manipulación de la agenda, el comportamiento estratégico, la formación de coaliciones, las propiedades del teorema de Arrow y la eficiencia de la(s) diferentes alternativas escogidas. El ejercicio se enmarca como parte de las actividades realizadas por el Grupo de Innovación Docente (GID-HAL) de la Universidad de Barcelona.

Oportunidades estratégicas para la implementación del voto electrónico remoto

A partir d"una anàlisi comparada de diferents experiències d"implementació del vot electrònic remot a Espanya i de dades sociopolítiques de valoració d"aquestes votacions, es discuteixen els diferents arguments justificadors de la seva implementació. S"analitzen així els arguments estructurals que incentiven l"adopció del vot electrònic en el context del funcionament dels sistemes polítics democràtics, sense oblidar, però, la percepció i l"avaluació dels ciutadans davant l"ús de les NTIC per a l"emissió del vot. L"anàlisi se centra en la presa en consideració de les debilitats i les amenaces potencials associades a la introducció del vot electrònic, per a concloure que la seva implementació haurà d"ésser progressiva i complementària als sistemes tradicionals de votació.

Eduskuntaryhmien äänestyskoheesio vuosien 1991-2006 valtiopäivillä

Abstract: Voting cohesion in the Finnish Parliament during 1991-2006

Abstenció diferencial, vot dual i vot diferencial a L'Hospitalet de Llobregat : Estudi sobre el comportament electoral a L'Hospitalet de Llobregat entre 1979 i 2014

Aquest treball presenta un anàlisi sobre el comportament electoral a L'Hospitalet de Llobregat entre 1979 i 2014, en relació als diferents nivells de participació electoral i les diferències en el vot a partits que es produeixen segons l'àmbit de la convocatòria electoral.

Classifier combination for in vivo magnetic resonance spectra of brain tumours

In this paper we present a multi-stage classifier for magnetic resonance spectra of human brain tumours which is being developed as part of a decision support system for radiologists. The basic idea is to decompose a complex classification scheme into a sequence of classifiers, each specialising in different classes of tumours and trying to reproducepart of the WHO classification hierarchy. Each stage uses a particular set of classification features, which are selected using a combination of classical statistical analysis, splitting performance and previous knowledge.Classifiers with different behaviour are combined using a simple voting scheme in order to extract different error patterns: LDA, decision trees and the k-NN classifier. A special label named "unknown¿ is used when the outcomes of the different classifiers disagree. Cascading is alsoused to incorporate class distances computed using LDA into decision trees. Both cascading and voting are effective tools to improve classification accuracy. Experiments also show that it is possible to extract useful information from the classification process itself in order to helpusers (clinicians and radiologists) to make more accurate predictions and reduce the number of possible classification mistakes.

Institutional Determinants of Military Spending

Drawing on a database for 1988-2006 containing information on 157 countries, we investigate the effects on military spending of government form, electoral rules, concentration of parliamentary parties, and ideology. From an OLS regression on pooled data, our results show that presidential democracies spend more than parliamentary systems on defense, whereas the presence of a plurality voting system will reduce the defense burden. Our findings suggest that, in contrast to theoretical predictions in the literature, institutions do not have the same impact on the provision of all public goods. We present as well evidence regarding the effect of ideology on defense spending.

Gathering support from rivals: the two rivals case

Two voters must choose between two alternatives. Voters vote in a fixed linear order. If there is not unanimity for any alternative, the procedure is repeated. At every stage, each voter prefers the same alternative to the other, has utilities decreasing with stages, and has an impatience degree representing when it is worth voting for the non-preferred alternative now rather than waiting for the next stage and voting for the preferred alternative. Intuition suggests that the more patient voter will get his preferred alternative. I found that in the unique solution of the sequential voting procedure obtained by backward induction, the first voter get his preferred alternative at the first stage independently from his impatience rate. Keywords: sequential voting, impatience rate, multi-stage voting, unanimity

Com vota el cervell

La política ocupa una part important de les nostres vides, tenint en compte el volum de notícies en tots els mitjans, i ens permet implicar-nos en els temes públics i intervenir en l'interès i el bé comú. En democràcia, per arribar a consensos la política és imprescindible, encara que no únicament mitjançant el vot. Ara bé, com decidim el sentit del vot, i com aconseguim el tan necessari acord pel bon funcionament de la societat?

[Kirja-arvostelu]

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Characterization of fiber and vessel elements in pulp suspension images

The thesis is related to the topic of image-based characterization of fibers in pulp suspension during the papermaking process. Papermaking industry is focusing on process control optimization and automatization, which makes it possible to manufacture highquality products in a resource-efficient way. Being a part of the process control, pulp suspension analysis allows to predict and modify properties of the end product. This work is a part of the tree species identification task and focuses on analysis of fiber parameters in the pulp suspension at the wet stage of paper production. The existing machine vision methods for pulp characterization were investigated, and a method exploiting direction sensitive filtering, non-maximum suppression, hysteresis thresholding, tensor voting, and curve extraction from tensor maps was developed. Application of the method to the microscopic grayscale pulp images made it possible to detect curves corresponding to fibers in the pulp image and to compute their morphological characteristics. Performance of the method was evaluated based on the manually produced ground truth data. An accuracy of fiber characteristics estimation, including length, width, and curvature, for the acacia pulp images was found to be 84, 85, and 60% correspondingly.

Competitive Effects of Non-Controlling Minority Acquisitions – Sufficient to merit further EU merger regulation?

Partial ownership interests are a widespread phenomenon in modern corporate environment. Unless minority shareholding affords the target to exercise control over the target, they do currently not have to be notified to the European Commission under EU merger regime. However, economic research has long suggested that when linking competing or non-horizontally positioned undertakings particularly in industries with few competitors, minority shareholdings even far below the majority of shares or voting rights could lead to higher prices or lower output volumes to the detriment of consumers. The Commission has recognized this issue and proceeded to suggest an extension of the merger regime to catch also certain non-controlling minority acquisitions. Horizontal non-controlling minority shareholdings create a positive correlation between the sales revenues of the partial acquirer and target. Through the equity interest the acquirer will internalise a fraction, proportional to the financial rights attached to the shareholding, of the profit of the target. This will incentivise the acquirer to contribute to increasing the target’s business profits by increasing its own sales price (horizontal unilateral effects). When a minority stake is held in a vertically related or a conglomerate company, the minority acquirer could be allowed to hamper or eliminate the target’s rivals’ access either to inputs (input foreclosure) or customers (customer foreclosure), depending on which level of the supply chain the parties are (vertical unilateral effects). Under certain circumstances minority share acquisitions could also lessen competition because they facilitate collusion between companies active in the market (coordinated effects). Economic theory confirms that non-controlling minority shareholdings may under certain circumstances create anti-competitive effects that are unlikely to be remedies by pro-competitive effects. However, they are likely to be of less significant nature than anticompetitive effects created by full mergers. This derives fore mostly from the fact that a minority share acquirer carries all the costs associated with its unilateral action but will internalise only a fraction of the lost profits. This is likely to limit the acquirer’s incentive to raise price and the profitability of such behavior. Having in mind that the number of potentially problematic cases is expected to be next to negligible, the limited potential competitive effects of non-controlling minority share acquisitions cannot be seen to clearly merit extension of the scope of the EUMR. The system suggested by the Commission is particularly ill-fitted for such purpose given the clear lack of legal certainty and considerable administrative burden associated with it.