A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

Analysis of the genetic diversity and structure across a wide range of germplasm reveals prominent gene flow in apple at the European level

Abstract Background: The amount and structure of genetic diversity in dessert apple germplasm conserved at a European level is mostly unknown, since all diversity studies conducted in Europe until now have been performed on regional or national collections. Here, we applied a common set of 16 SSR markers to genotype more than 2,400 accessions across 14 collections representing three broad European geographic regions (North+East, West and South) with the aim to analyze the extent, distribution and structure of variation in the apple genetic resources in Europe. Results: A Bayesian model-based clustering approach showed that diversity was organized in three groups, although these were only moderately differentiated (FST=0.031). A nested Bayesian clustering approach allowed identification of subgroups which revealed internal patterns of substructure within the groups, allowing a finer delineation of the variation into eight subgroups (FST=0.044). The first level of stratification revealed an asymmetric division of the germplasm among the three groups, and a clear association was found with the geographical regions of origin of the cultivars. The substructure revealed clear partitioning of genetic groups among countries, but also interesting associations between subgroups and breeding purposes of recent cultivars or particular usage such as cider production. Additional parentage analyses allowed us to identify both putative parents of more than 40 old and/or local cultivars giving interesting insights in the pedigree of some emblematic cultivars. Conclusions: The variation found at group and sub-group levels may reflect a combination of historical processes of migration/selection and adaptive factors to diverse agricultural environments that, together with genetic drift, have resulted in extensive genetic variation but limited population structure. The European dessert apple germplasm represents an important source of genetic diversity with a strong historical and patrimonial value. The present work thus constitutes a decisive step in the field of conservation genetics. Moreover, the obtained data can be used for defining a European apple core collection useful for further identification of genomic regions associated with commercially important horticultural traits in apple through genome-wide association studies.

Overweight and obesity related factors in schoolchildren in Santa Catarina State, Brazil

The purpose of this study is to determine the correlation of socioeconomic, dietary, and anthropometric-nutritional variables of parents and their children to overweight (including obesity) in schoolchildren in Santa Catarina State, Brazil. This is a transversal study conducted on 4,964, 6 to 10-year-old schoolchildren registered in 345 Santa Catarina elementary schools. The following data were acquired: the children`s current weight and height, birth weight and length, duration of breastfeeding, age at which water, herbal tea and other foods were introduced to their diet; parental income, education level, age, weight and height were also obtained. The prevalence of overweight and obese children were estimated by point and by interval with a 95% confidence; prevalence rates were obtained based on the Poisson model. An hierarchical approach was used, in which variables were adjusted within blocks and included in the model when they presented p<0.05 at the outcome (overweight including obesity). The results indicate that 47.8% of the subjects were male. The prevalence of overweight and obese students was 15.4% (C195%: 14.4%-16.5%) and 6.1% (CI95%: 5.4%-6.7%) respectively and were statistically similar among sexes and age ranges. BMI values were higher in males and among older children (p<0.05). After adjustment within and among blocks, the variables per capita household income and parents` BM I values remained associated with overweight (including obesity). Overweight (including obesity) in schoolchildren is associated with a higher per capita household income and parental overweight and obesity.

The impact of big-boxes on local retail : What happens when IKEA comes to town?

The development of large discount retailers, or big-boxes as they are sometimes referred to, are often subject to heated debate and their entry on a market is greeted with either great enthusiasm or dread. For instance, the world’s largest retailer Wal-Mart (Forbes 2014) has a number of anti- and pro-groups dedicated to its being and the event of a Wal-Mart entry tends to be met with protests and campaigns (Decamme 2013) but also welcomed by, for instance, consumers (Davis & DeBonis 2013). Also in Sweden, the entry of a big box is a hot topic and before IKEA’s opening i Borlänge 2013, the first in Sweden in more than five years, great expectations were mixed with worry (Västerbottens-Kuriren 2011).The presence of large scale discount retailers is not, however, a novel phenomenon but a part of a long-term change in retailing that has taken place globally over the past couple of decades (Taylor & Smalling, 2005). As noted by Dawson (2006), the trend in Europe has over the past few decades gone towards an increasing concentration of large firms along with a decrease of smaller firms.This trend is also detectable in the Swedish retail industry. Over the past decade, the retailing industry in Sweden has increased by around 190 Billion SEK, and its share of GDP has risen from 2,7% to 2,9%, while the number of employees have increased from 200 000 to 250 000 (HUI 2013). This growth, however, has not been distributed evenly but rather it has been oriented mainly towards out-of-town retail clusters. Parallel to this development, the number of large retailers has risen at the expense of market shares of smaller independent firms (Rämme et al 2010). Thereby, the presence of large scale retailers is simply part of a changing retail landscape.The effects of this development, where large scale retailing agents relocate shopping to out-of-town shopping areas, have been heavily debated. On the one hand, the big-boxes are accused of displacing independent small retail businesses in the city-centers and the residential areas, resulting in, to some extent, reduced employment opportunities and less availability for the consumers - especially the elderly (Ljungberg et al 2006). In addition, as access to shopping now tends to require some sort of a motorized vehicle, environmental aspects to the discussion have emerged. Ultimately these types of concerns have resulted in calls for regulations against this development (Olsson 2010). On the other hand, the proponents of the new shopping landscape argue that this evolution implies productivity gains, the benefits of lower prices and an increased variety of products (Maican & Orth 2012). Moreover it is argued that it leads to, for instance, better services (such as longer opening hours) and a creative destruction transformation pressure on retailers, which brings about a renewal of city-centerIIretail and services, increasing their attractivity (Bergström 2010). The belief in benefits of a big box entry can be exemplified by the attractivity of IKEA, and the fact that municipalities are prepared to commit to expenses amounting up to hundreds of millions in order to attract the entry of this big-box. Borlänge municipality, for instance, agreed to expenses of about 350 million SEK in order to secure the entry of IKEA, which opened in 2013 (Blomgren 2009).Against this backdrop, the overall effects of large discount retailers become important: Are the economic benefits enough to warrant subsidies or are there, on the contrary, some very compelling grounds for regulations against these types of establishments? In other words; how is overall retail in a region where a store like IKEA enters affected? And how are local retail firms affected?In order to answer these questions, the purpose of this thesis is to study how entry of a big-box retailer affects the entry region. The object of this study is IKEA - one of the world’s largest retailers, with 345 stores, active in over 40 countries and with profits of about 3.3 billion (IKEA 2013; IKEA 2014). By studying the effects of IKEA-entry, both on an aggregated level and on firm level, this thesis intends to find indications of how large discount retail establishments in general can be expected to affect the economic development both in a region overall, but also on the local firm level, something which is of interest to both policymakers as well as the retailing industry in general.The first paper examines the effects of IKEA on retail revenues and employment in the municipalities that IKEA chose to enter between 2000 and 2011; Gothenburg, Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad. By means of a matching method we first identify non-entry municipalities that have a similar probability of IKEA entry as the true entry municipalities. Then, using these non-entry municipalities as a control group, the causal effects of IKEA entry can be estimated using a treatment-control approach. We also extend the analysis to examine the spatial impact of IKEA by estimating the effects on retail in neighboring municipalities. It is found that a new IKEA store increases revenues in durable goods trade with 20% in the entry municipality and the number of employees with 17%. Only small, and in most cases statistically insignificant, negative effects were found in neighboring municipalities.It appears that there is a positive net effect on durables retail sales and employment in the entry municipality. However, the analysis is based on data on an aggregated municipality level and thereby it remains unclear if and how the effects vary within the entry municipalities. In addition, the data used in the first study includes the sales and employment of IKEA itself, which could account for the majority of the increases in employment and retail. Thereby the potential spillover effects on incumbent retailers in the entry municipalities cannot be discerned in the first study.IIITo examine effects of IKEA entry on incumbent retail firms, the second paper in this thesis analyses how IKEA entry affects the revenues and employment of local retail firms in three municipalities; Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad, which experienced entry by IKEA between 2000 and 2010. In this second study, we exclude Gothenburg due to the fact that big-box entry appears to have weaker effects in metropolitan areas (as indicated by Artz & Stone 2006). By excluding Gothenburg we aim to reduce the geographical heterogeneity in our study. We obtain control municipalities that are as similar as possible to the three entry municipalities using the same method as in the previous study, but including a slightly different set of variables in the selection equation. Using similar retail firms in the control municipalities as our comparison group, we estimate the impact of IKEA entry on revenues and employment for retail firms located at varying distances from the IKEA entry site.The results generated in this study imply that entry by IKEA increases revenues in incumbent retail firms by, on average, 11% in the entry municipalities. In addition, we do not find any significant impact on retail revenues in the city centers of the entry municipalities. However, we do find that retail firms within 1 km of the IKEA experience increases in revenues of about 26%, which indicates large spillover effects in the area nearby the entry site. As expected, this impact decreases as we expand the buffer zone: firms located between 0-2 km experiences a 14% increase and firms in 2-5 km experiences an increase of 10%. We do not find any significant impacts on retail employment.

Utilização do modelo de Black-Litterman para gestão de hedge funds do Brasil

O modelo Black-Litterman calcula os retornos esperados de mercado como uma combinação de um conjunto de expectativas específicas de cada investidor e um ponto de referência neutro. A combinação dessas duas fontes de informações são feitas pelo modelo utilizando a abordagem bayesiana. Os resultados obtidos a partir do modelo Black-Litterman, ao contrário da abordagem tradicional, são bastante intuitivos, estáveis e consistentes em relação as expectativas dos investidores. O objetivo dessa dissertação é fazer uma análise detalhada de cada um dos componentes do modelo Black-Litterman e verificar se a utilização o modelo de Black-Litterman, introduzindo as opiniões de mercado com base no relatório FOCUS do Banco Central, supera o retorno dos fundos multimercados brasileiros.

Organizações sociais em Pernambuco: o desenho institucional do controle externo sobre os contratos de gestão

O objetivo desta pesquisa foi analisar o desenho institucional do controle externo sobre os contratos de gestão no âmbito do Tribunal de Contas do estado de Pernambuco quanto a sua aderência aos conteúdos da lei estadual que disciplina as Organizações Sociais e quanto a sua observância por parte dos atores envolvidos: Administração Pública, técnicos do tribunal de contas e membros do seu corpo julgador. Foram assumidas as seguintes premissas: que os novos arranjos de prestação de serviços públicos, por meio de parcerias com as Organizações Sociais, demandam por parte dos Tribunais de Contas desenhos institucionais de fiscalização específicos, que a pesar de variáveis devem primar por sua capacidade de revelar informações; que o processo de formatação destes desenhos institucionais deve ser dinâmico, permitindo-se que as contigências experimentadas na sua implementação possam contribuir no seu aperfeiçoamento; e que esses desenhos institucionais geram impacto no comportamento dos atores envolvidos. O estudo foi realizado por meio de pesquisa documental. A metodologia qualitativa de análise de conteúdo foi escolhida para análise dos dados. Os resultados da pesquisa permitiram concluir que o desenho institucional de controle dos contratos de gestão no âmbito do TCE-PE caracteriza-se por sua fragilidade como mecanismo de revelação de informação e, consequentemente, não contribui para a redução da assimetria de informação que se estabelece com a implementação dos contratos de gestão. Adicionalmente, compromete e limita o desempenho do Tribunal de Contas no controle destes ajustes. Verificou-se, também, uma a baixa observância do desenho institucional identificado, em que pese sua fragilidade, por parte dos atores envolvidos no controle dos contratos de gestão, implicando em uma baixa institucionalização deste desenho. Os resultados devem proporcionar uma rediscussão acerca dos mecanismos de controle dos contratos de gestão por parte do TCE-PE, que poderá resultar em um novo desenho institucional com vistas a conferir maior transparência às parcerias com as Organizações Sociais.

Genes candidatos de suscetibilidade a pré-eclampsia: estudo de associação

Preeclampsia is a multifactorial disease of unknown etiology that features with wide clinical symptoms, ranging from mild preeclampsia to severe forms, as eclampsia and HELLP syndrome. As a complex disease, preeclampsia is also influenced by genetic and environmental factors. Aiming to identify preeclampsia susceptibility genes, we genotyped a total of 22 genetic markers (single nucleotides polymorphisms SNPs) distributed in six candidates genes (ACVR2A, FLT1, ERAP1, ERAP2, LNPEP e CRHBP). By a case-control approach, the genotypic frequencies were compared between normotensive (control group) and preeclamptic women. The case s group was classified according to the disease clinical form in: preeclampsia, eclampsia and HELLP syndrome. As results we found the following genetic association: 1) ACVR2A and preeclampsia; 2) FLT1 and severe preeclampsia; 3) ERAP1 and eclampsia; 4) FLT1 and HELLP syndrome. When stratifying preeclampsia group according to symptoms severity (mild and severe preeclampsia) or according to the time of onset (early and late preeclampsia), it was detected that early preeclampsia is strongly associated to risk preeclampsia, eclampsia and HELLP syndrome have different genetic bases, although FLT1 gene seems to be involved in preeclampsia and HELLP syndrome pathophisiology

Controle preditivo neural aplicado à processos petroquímicos

A pesquisa tem como objetivo desenvolver uma estrutura de controle preditivo neural, com o intuito de controlar um processo de pH, caracterizado por ser um sistema SISO (Single Input - Single Output). O controle de pH é um processo de grande importância na indústria petroquímica, onde se deseja manter constante o nível de acidez de um produto ou neutralizar o afluente de uma planta de tratamento de fluidos. O processo de controle de pH exige robustez do sistema de controle, pois este processo pode ter ganho estático e dinâmica nãolineares. O controlador preditivo neural envolve duas outras teorias para o seu desenvolvimento, a primeira referente ao controle preditivo e a outra a redes neurais artificiais (RNA s). Este controlador pode ser dividido em dois blocos, um responsável pela identificação e outro pelo o cálculo do sinal de controle. Para realizar a identificação neural é utilizada uma RNA com arquitetura feedforward multicamadas com aprendizagem baseada na metodologia da Propagação Retroativa do Erro (Error Back Propagation). A partir de dados de entrada e saída da planta é iniciado o treinamento offline da rede. Dessa forma, os pesos sinápticos são ajustados e a rede está apta para representar o sistema com a máxima precisão possível. O modelo neural gerado é usado para predizer as saídas futuras do sistema, com isso o otimizador calcula uma série de ações de controle, através da minimização de uma função objetivo quadrática, fazendo com que a saída do processo siga um sinal de referência desejado. Foram desenvolvidos dois aplicativos, ambos na plataforma Builder C++, o primeiro realiza a identificação, via redes neurais e o segundo é responsável pelo controle do processo. As ferramentas aqui implementadas e aplicadas são genéricas, ambas permitem a aplicação da estrutura de controle a qualquer novo processo

Controle de atitude e altitude para um veículo aéreo não tripulado do tipo quadrirrotor

A Quadrotor is an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) equipped with four rotors distributed on a simple mechanical "X"form structure. The aim of this work is to build and stabilize a Quadrotor aircraft in the roll, pitch and yaw angles at a certain altitude. The stabilization control approach is based on a transformation in the input variables in order to perform a decoupled control. The proposed strategy is based on breaking the control problem into two hierarchical levels: A lower level, object of this work, maintains the desired altitude an angles of the vehicle while the higher level establishes appropriate references to the lower level, performing the desired movements. A hardware and software architecture was specially developed and implemented for an experimental prototype used to test and validate the proposed control approach

Estudo e implementação em plantas físicas de um controlador preditivo generalizado com restrições

This work shows a study about the Generalized Predictive Controllers with Restrictions and their implementation in physical plants. Three types of restrictions will be discussed: restrictions in the variation rate of the signal control, restrictions in the amplitude of the signal control and restrictions in the amplitude of the Out signal (plant response). At the predictive control, the control law is obtained by the minimization of an objective function. To consider the restrictions, this minimization of the objective function is done by the use of a method to solve optimizing problems with restrictions. The chosen method was the Rosen Algorithm (based on the Gradient-projection). The physical plants in this study are two didactical systems of water level control. The first order one (a simple tank) and another of second order, which is formed by two tanks connected in cascade. The codes are implemented in C++ language and the communication with the system to be done through using a data acquisition panel offered by the system producer

Modelagem e controle adaptativo de uma planta didática de nível com instrumentação industrial

The control, automation and optimization areas help to improve the processes used by industry. They contribute to a fast production line, improving the products quality and reducing the manufacturing costs. Didatic plants are good tools for research in these areas, providing a direct contact with some industrial equipaments. Given these capabilities, the main goal of this work is to model and control a didactic plant, which is a level and flow process control system with an industrial instrumentation. With a model it is possible to build a simulator for the plant that allows studies about its behaviour, without any of the real processes operational costs, like experiments with controllers. They can be tested several times before its application in a real process. Among the several types of controllers, it was used adaptive controllers, mainly the Direct Self-Tuning Regulators (DSTR) with Integral Action and the Gain Scheduling (GS). The DSTR was based on Pole-Placement design and use the Recursive Least Square to calculate the controller parameters. The characteristics of an adaptive system was very worth to guarantee a good performance when the controller was applied to the plant

Susceptibility of the ant-cultivated fungus Leucoagaricus gongylophorus (Agaricales : Basidiomycota) towards microfungi

The aim of this study was to select virulent strains of microfungi against Leucoagaricus gongylophorus, a symbiotic fungus cultivated by leaf-cutting ants. The results from in vitro assays showed that microfungal strains had a variable and significant impact on the colony development of L. gongylophorus. Specifically, Trichoderma harzianum, Escovopsis weberi CBS 810.71 and E. weberi A088 were more effective, inhibiting the L. gongylophorus colonies by 75, 68 and 67%, respectively (P < 0.05) after 15 days. Strain E. weberi A086 and Acremonium kiliense were less effective: 43 and 26%, respectively (P < 0.05). In spite of the current negative perspective of a microbiological control approach for these ants, the present work discusses the possibility of using mycopathogenic fungi for the control of these insects, and points out the importance of encouraging more studies in this area.

Extração semi-automática de rodovia baseada em um par estéreo de imagens aéreas e em otimização por programação dinâmica no espaço-objeto

This article proposes a method for 3D road extraction from a stereopair of aerial images. The dynamic programming (DP) algorithm is used to carry out the optimization process in the object-space, instead of usually doing it in the image-space such as the DP traditional methodologies. This means that road centerlines are directly traced in the object-space, implying that a mathematical relationship is necessary to connect road points in object and image-space. This allows the integration of radiometric information from images into the associate mathematical road model. As the approach depends on an initial approximation of each road, it is necessary a few seed points to coarsely describe the road. Usually, the proposed method allows good results to be obtained, but large anomalies along the road can disturb its performance. Therefore, the method can be used for practical application, although it is expected some kind of local manual edition of the extracted road centerline.

On the dynamic behaviour of the "click" mechanism in dipteran flight

In this paper, the dynamic behaviour of the "click" mechanism is analysed. A more accurate model is used than in the past, in which the limits of movement due to the geometry of the flight mechanism are imposed. Moreover, the effects of different damping models are investigated. In previous work, the damping model was assumed to be of the linear viscous type for simplicity, but it is likely that the damping due to drag forces is nonlinear. Accordingly, a model of damping in which the damping force is proportional to the square of the velocity is used, and the results are compared with the simpler model of linear viscous damping. Because of the complexity of the model an analytical approach is not possible so the problem has been cast in terms of non-dimensional variables and solved numerically. The peak kinetic energy of the wing root per energy input in one cycle is chosen to study the effectiveness of the "click" mechanism compared with a linear resonant mechanism. It is shown that, the "click" mechanism has distinct advantages when it is driven below its resonant frequency. When the damping is quadratic, there are some further advantages compared to when the damping is linear and viscous, provided that the amplitude of the excitation force is large enough to avoid the erratic behaviour of the mechanism that occurs for small forces. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uma linguagem de modelagem da interação para auxiliar a comunicação designer-usuário

The development of interactive systems involves several professionals and the integration between them normally uses common artifacts, such as models, that drive the development process. In the model-driven development approach, the interaction model is an artifact that includes the most of the aspects related to what and how the user can do while he/she interacting with the system. Furthermore, the interactive model may be used to identify usability problems at design time. Therefore, the central problematic addressed by this thesis is twofold. In the first place, the interaction modeling, in a perspective that helps the designer to explicit to developer, who will implement the interface, the aspcts related to the interaction process. In the second place, the anticipated identification of usability problems, that aims to reduce the application final costs. To achieve these goals, this work presents (i) the ALaDIM language, that aims to help the designer on the conception, representation and validation of his interactive message models; (ii) the ALaDIM editor, which was built using the EMF (Eclipse Modeling Framework) and its standardized technologies by OMG (Object Management Group); and (iii) the ALaDIM inspection method, which allows the anticipated identification of usability problems using ALaDIM models. ALaDIM language and editor were respectively specified and implemented using the OMG standards and they can be used in MDA (Model Driven Architecture) activities. Beyond that, we evaluated both ALaDIM language and editor using a CDN (Cognitive Dimensions of Notations) analysis. Finally, this work reports an experiment that validated the ALaDIM inspection method