The transformed-stationary approach: a generic and simplified methodology for non-stationary extreme value analysis

Statistical approaches to study extreme events require, by definition, long time series of data. In many scientific disciplines, these series are often subject to variations at different temporal scales that affect the frequency and intensity of their extremes. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity is violated and alternative methods to conventional stationary extreme value analysis (EVA) must be adopted. Using the example of environmental variables subject to climate change, in this study we introduce the transformed-stationary (TS) methodology for non-stationary EVA. This approach consists of (i) transforming a non-stationary time series into a stationary one, to which the stationary EVA theory can be applied, and (ii) reverse transforming the result into a non-stationary extreme value distribution. As a transformation, we propose and discuss a simple time-varying normalization of the signal and show that it enables a comprehensive formulation of non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with a constant shape parameter. A validation of the methodology is carried out on time series of significant wave height, residual water level, and river discharge, which show varying degrees of long-term and seasonal variability. The results from the proposed approach are comparable with the results from (a) a stationary EVA on quasi-stationary slices of non-stationary series and (b) the established method for non-stationary EVA. However, the proposed technique comes with advantages in both cases. For example, in contrast to (a), the proposed technique uses the whole time horizon of the series for the estimation of the extremes, allowing for a more accurate estimation of large return levels. Furthermore, with respect to (b), it decouples the detection of non-stationary patterns from the fitting of the extreme value distribution. As a result, the steps of the analysis are simplified and intermediate diagnostics are possible. In particular, the transformation can be carried out by means of simple statistical techniques such as low-pass filters based on the running mean and the standard deviation, and the fitting procedure is a stationary one with a few degrees of freedom and is easy to implement and control. An open-source MAT-LAB toolbox has been developed to cover this methodology, which is available at https://github.com/menta78/tsEva/(Mentaschi et al., 2016).

Patterns of sedentary behavior : insights from observational and experimental studies on body composition and energy expenditure

It is recognized that sedentary behavior (SB) has deleterious effects on numerous health outcomes and it appears that physiological mechanisms underlying these harms are distinct from the ones explaining moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) benefits. Sedentary behavior represents a large portion of human’s life and is increasing with technological development. A new current of opinion supports the idea that the manner SB is accumulated plays an important role. This dissertation presents six research studies conducted under the scope of SB. In the methodological area, the first study highlighted the magnitude of potential errors in estimating SB and its patterns from common alternative methods (accelerometer and heart rate monitor) compared to ActivPAL. This study presented the accelerometer as a valid method at a group level. Two studies (2 and 5) were performed in older adults (the most sedentary group in the population) to test the associations for SB patterns with abdominal obesity using accelerometry. The findings showed positive graded associations for prolonged sedentary bouts with abdominal obesity and showed that those who interrupted SB more frequently were less likely to present abdominal obesity. Therefore, public health recommendations regarding breaking up SB more often are expected to be relevant. The associations between sedentary patterns and abdominal obesity were independent of MVPA in older adults. However, the low MVPA in this group makes it unclear whether this independent relationship still exists if highly active persons are analysed. Study 3 inovates by examining the association of SB with body fatness in highly trained athletes and found SB to predict total fat mass and trunk fat mass, independently of age and weekly training time. Study 4 also brings novelty to this research field by quantifying the metabolic and energetic cost of the transition from sitting to standing and then sitting back down (a break), informing about the modest energetic costs (0.32 kcal·min−1). Finally, from a successful multicomponent pilot intervention to reduce and break up SB (study 6), an important behavioral resistance to make more sit/stand transitions despite successfully reducing sitting time (~ 1.85 hours·day-1) was found, which may be relevant to inform future behavioral modification programs. The present work provides observational and experimental evidence on the relation for SB patterns with body composition outcomes and energy regulation that may be relevant for public health interventions.

Análise da descarga sólida em suspensão na Bacia do Riacho Fundo, Brasília - DF

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Geociências, 2015.

Chemical Reaction Dynamics of the Liquid/Vapor Interface Studied by Mass Spectrometry

This thesis presents investigations of chemical reactions occurring at the liquid/vapor interface studied using novel sampling methodologies coupled with detection by mass spectrometry. Chapters 2 and 3 utilize the recently developed technique of field-induced droplet ionization mass spectrometry (FIDI-MS), in which the application of a strong electric field to a pendant microliter droplet results in the ejection of highly charged progeny droplets from the liquid surface. In Chapter 2, this method is employed to study the base-catalyzed dissociation of a surfactant molecule at the liquid/vapor interface upon uptake of ammonia from the gas phase. This process is observed to occur without significant modulation of the bulk solution pH, suggesting a transient increase in surface pH following the uptake of gaseous ammonia. Chapter 3 presents real-time studies of the oxidation of the model tropospheric organic compound glycolaldehyde by photodissociation of iron (III) oxalate complexes. The oxidation products of glycolaldehyde formed in this process are identified, and experiments in a deoxygenated environment identify the role of oxygen in the oxidation pathway and in the regeneration of iron (III) following photo-initiated reduction. Chapter 4 explores alternative methods for the study of heterogeneous reaction processes by mass spectrometric sampling from liquid surfaces. Bursting bubble ionization (BBI) and interfacial sampling with an acoustic transducer (ISAT) generate nanoliter droplets from a liquid surface that can be sampled via the atmospheric pressure interface of a mass spectrometer. Experiments on the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone using ISAT are also presented. Chapters 5 and 6 detail mechanistic studies and applications of free-radical-initiated peptide sequencing (FRIPS), a technique employing gas-phase free radical chemistry to the sequencing of peptides and proteins by mass spectrometry. Chapter 5 presents experimental and theoretical studies on the anomalous mechanism of dissociation observed in the presence of serine and threonine residues in peptides. Chapter 6 demonstrates the combination of FRIPS with ion mobility-mass spectrometry (IM-MS) for the separation of isomeric peptides.

Desenvolvimento de metodologias analíticas alternativas por cromatografia gasosa para análise de biodiesel

Since the beginning of the National Program for Production and Use of Biodiesel in Brazil, in 2004, different raw materials were evaluated for biodiesel production, trying to combine the agricultural diversity of the country to the desire to reduce production coasts. To determine the chemical composition of biodiesel produced from common vegetables oils, international methods have been used widely in Brazil. However, for analyzing biodiesel samples produced from some alternative raw materials analytical problems have been detected. That was the case of biodiesel from castor oil. Due the need to overcome these problems, new methodologies were developed using different chromatographic columns, standards and quantitative methods. The priority was simplifying the equipment configuration, realizing faster analyses, reducing the costs and facilitating the routine of biodiesel research and production laboratories. For quantifying free glycerin, the ethylene glycol was used in instead of 1,2,4-butanetriol, without loss of quality results. The ethylene glycol is a cheaper and easier standard. For methanol analyses the headspace was not used and the cost of the equipment used was lower. A detailed determination of the esters helped the deeper knowledge of the biodiesel composition. The report of the experiments and conclusions of the research that resulted in the development of alternative methods for quality control of the composition of the biodiesel produced in Brazil, a country with considerable variability of species in agriculture, are the goals of this thesis and are reported in the following pages

‘‘Model age-based” and ‘‘copy when uncertain” biases in children’s social learning of a novel task

Theoretical models of social learning predict that individuals can benefit from using strategies that specify when and whom to copy. Here the interaction of two social learning strategies, model age-based biased copying and copy when uncertain, was investigated. Uncertainty was created via a systematic manipulation of demonstration efficacy (completeness) and efficiency (causal relevance of some actions). The participants, 4- to 6-year-old children (N = 140), viewed both an adult model and a child model, each of whom used a different tool on a novel task. They did so in a complete condition, a near-complete condition, a partial demonstration condition, or a no-demonstration condition. Half of the demonstrations in each condition incorporated causally irrelevant actions by the models. Social transmission was assessed by first responses but also through children’s continued fidelity, the hallmark of social traditions. Results revealed a bias to copy the child model both on first response and in continued interactions. Demonstration efficacy and efficiency did not affect choice of model at first response but did influence solution exploration across trials, with demonstrations containing causally irrelevant actions decreasing exploration of alternative methods. These results imply that uncertain environments can result in canalized social learning from specific classes of mode

Modelo de gestión para la atención integral de pacientes con enfermedades huérfanas o raras en Colombia

Las enfermedades raras o huérfanas corresponden a aquellas con baja prevalencia en la población, y en varios países tienen una definición distinta de acuerdo con el número de pacientes que afectan en la población. La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), las define como un trastorno que afecta de 650 a 1.000 personas por millón de habitantes, de las que se han identificado alrededor de 7.000. En Colombia su prevalencia es menor de 1 por cada 5.000 personas y comprenden: las enfermedades raras, las ultra-huérfanas y las olvidadas. Los pacientes con este tipo de enfermedades imponen retos a los sistemas sanitarios, pues si bien afectan a un bajo porcentaje de la población, su atención implica una alta carga económica por los costos que involucra su atención, la complejidad en su diagnóstico, tratamiento, seguimiento y rehabilitación. El abordaje de las enfermedades raras requiere un manejo interdisciplinar e intersectorial, lo que implica la organización de cada actor del sistema sanitario para su manejo a través de un modelo que abraque las dinámicas posibles entre ellos y las competencias de cada uno. Por lo anterior, y teniendo en cuenta la necesidad de formular políticas sanitarias específicas para la gestión de estas enfermedades, el presente trabajo presenta una aproximación a la formulación de un modelo de gestión para la atención integral de pacientes con enfermedades raras en Colombia. Esta investigación describe los distintos elementos y características de los modelos de gestión clínica y de las enfermedades raras a través de una revisión de literatura, en la que se incluye la descripción de los distintos actores del Sistema de Salud Colombiano, relacionados con la atención integral de estos pacientes para la documentación de un modelo de gestión integral.

Dynamics of undeactuated cable-driven parallel robots

This thesis focuses on the dynamics of underactuated cable-driven parallel robots (UACDPRs), including various aspects of robotic theory and practice, such as workspace computation, parameter identification, and trajectory planning. After a brief introduction to CDPRs, UACDPR kinematic and dynamic models are analyzed, under the relevant assumption of inextensible cables. The free oscillatory motion of the end-effector (EE), which is a unique feature of underactuated mechanisms, is studied in detail, from both a kinematic and a dynamic perspective. The free (small) oscillations of the EE around equilibria are proved to be harmonic and the corresponding natural oscillation frequencies are analytically computed. UACDPR workspace computation and analysis are then performed. A new performance index is proposed for the analysis of the influence of actuator errors on cable tensions around equilibrium configurations, and a new type of workspace, called tension-error-insensitive, is defined as the set of poses that a UACDPR EE can statically attain even in presence of actuation errors, while preserving tensions between assigned (positive) bounds. EE free oscillations are then employed to conceive a novel procedure aimed at identifying the EE inertial parameters. This approach does not require the use of force or torque measurements. Moreover, a self-calibration procedure for the experimental determination of UACDPR initial cable lengths is developed, which consequently enables the robot to automatically infer the EE initial pose at machine start-up. Lastly, trajectory planning of UACDPRs is investigated. Two alternative methods are proposed, which aim at (i) reducing EE oscillations even when model parameters are uncertain or (ii) eliminate EE oscillations in case model parameters are perfectly known. EE oscillations are reduced in real-time by dynamically scaling a nominal trajectory and filtering it with an input shaper, whereas they can be eliminated if an off-line trajectory is computed that accounts for the system internal dynamics.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part II: Simulation of alternative farming methods

A version of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) capable of simulating the key agronomic aspects of intercropping maize between legume shrub hedgerows was described and parameterised in the first paper of this series (Nelson et al., this issue). In this paper, APSIM is used to simulate maize yields and soil erosion from traditional open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. Two variants of open-field farming were simulated using APSIM, continuous and fallow, for comparison with intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows. Continuous open-field maize farming was predicted to be unsustainable in the long term, while fallow open-field farming was predicted to slow productivity decline by spreading the effect of erosion over a larger cropping area. Hedgerow intercropping was predicted to reduce erosion by maintaining soil surface cover during periods of intense rainfall, contributing to sustainable production of maize in the long term. In the third paper in this series, Nelson et al. (this issue) use cost-benefit analysis to compare the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to traditional open-field farming of maize in relatively inaccessible upland areas. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part III: Economic analysis of alternative farming methods

Two previous papers in this series (Nelson et al., this issue) described the use of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) to simulate the effect of erosion on maize yields from open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. In this paper, maize yields simulated with APSIM are used to compare the economic viability of intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows with that of continuous and fallow open-field farming of maize. The analysis focuses on the economic incentives of upland farmers to adopt hedgerow intercropping, discussing farmers' planning horizons, access to credit and security of land tenure, as well as maize pricing in the Philippines. Insecure land tenure has limited the planning horizons of upland farmers, and high establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to continuous and fallow open-field farming in the short term, In the long term, high discount rates and share-tenancy arrangements in which landlords do not contribute to establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to fallow open-field farming, (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Iterative reconstruction methods in two different MDCT scanners: Physical metrics and 4-alternative forced-choice detectability experiments - A phantom approach.

This paper characterizes and evaluates the potential of three commercial CT iterative reconstruction methods (ASIR?, VEO? and iDose(4 ()?())) for dose reduction and image quality improvement. We measured CT number accuracy, standard deviation (SD), noise power spectrum (NPS) and modulation transfer function (MTF) metrics on Catphan phantom images while five human observers performed four-alternative forced-choice (4AFC) experiments to assess the detectability of low- and high-contrast objects embedded in two pediatric phantoms. Results show that 40% and 100% ASIR as well as iDose(4) levels 3 and 6 do not affect CT number and strongly decrease image noise with relative SD constant in a large range of dose. However, while ASIR produces a shift of the NPS curve apex, less change is observed with iDose(4) with respect to FBP methods. With second-generation iterative reconstruction VEO, physical metrics are even further improved: SD decreased to 70.4% at 0.5 mGy and spatial resolution improved to 37% (MTF(50%)). 4AFC experiments show that few improvements in detection task performance are obtained with ASIR and iDose(4), whereas VEO makes excellent detections possible even at an ultra-low-dose (0.3 mGy), leading to a potential dose reduction of a factor 3 to 7 (67%-86%). In spite of its longer reconstruction time and the fact that clinical studies are still required to complete these results, VEO clearly confirms the tremendous potential of iterative reconstructions for dose reduction in CT and appears to be an important tool for patient follow-up, especially for pediatric patients where cumulative lifetime dose still remains high.

The M-Coffee web server: a meta-method for computing multiple sequence alignments by combining alternative alignment methods.

The M-Coffee server is a web server that makes it possible to compute multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) by running several MSA methods and combining their output into one single model. This allows the user to simultaneously run all his methods of choice without having to arbitrarily choose one of them. The MSA is delivered along with a local estimation of its consistency with the individual MSAs it was derived from. The computation of the consensus multiple alignment is carried out using a special mode of the T-Coffee package [Notredame, Higgins and Heringa (T-Coffee: a novel method for fast and accurate multiple sequence alignment. J. Mol. Biol. 2000; 302: 205-217); Wallace, O'Sullivan, Higgins and Notredame (M-Coffee: combining multiple sequence alignment methods with T-Coffee. Nucleic Acids Res. 2006; 34: 1692-1699)] Given a set of sequences (DNA or proteins) in FASTA format, M-Coffee delivers a multiple alignment in the most common formats. M-Coffee is a freeware open source package distributed under a GPL license and it is available either as a standalone package or as a web service from www.tcoffee.org.

Kinetic modeling of the biosorption of Cd2+ ions from aqueous solutions onto Eichhornia crassipes roots using potentiometry: low-cost alternative to conventional methods

This work presents the use of potentiometric measurements for kinetic studies of biosorption of Cd2+ ions from aqueous solutions on Eichhornia crassipes roots. The open circuit potential of the Cd/Cd2+ electrode of the first kind was measured during the bioadsorption process. The amount of Cd2+ ions accumulated was determined in real time. The data were fit to different models, with the pseudo-second-order model proving to be the best in describing the data. The advantages and limitations of the methodology proposed relative to the traditional method are discussed.

Use of nicarbazin, salinomycin and zinc oxide as alternative molting methods for commercial laying hens

An experiment was carried out to evaluate the performance, egg quality and morphometry of the reproductive tract, liver, pancreas and tongue of laying hens submitted to different molting methods. Two hundred and eighty eight 72-week-old Isa brown layers were distributed according to a completely randomized design with six treatments (molting methods) and six replicates of eight birds each. Layers were fed diets containing 3000 ppm zinc oxide, 60 ppm or 120 ppm nicarbazin, 30 ppm or 60 ppm salinomycin, or were submitted to feed fasting. Data were submitted to analysis of variance and means were compared by the test of Tukey at 5% probability level. Molting methods alternative to feed fasting were effective to induce molting in layer and provided good performance results in the second laying cycle.