A pesquisa governamental de opini??o p??blica: raz??es, limites e a experi??ncia recente no Brasil

Este trabalho discute raz??es pelas quais se deve esperar que governos representativos mantenham um programa institucionalizado de pesquisa de opini??o p??blica. O argumento divide-se em quatro se????es. Na primeira, discutem-se raz??es te??ricas e operacionais para que os governos acompanhem ao longo do tempo o comportamento de opini??es e prefer??ncias dos cidad??os. Na segunda, descrevem-se as consequ??ncias da (im)popularidade governamental, medida sint??tica e crucial da rela????o entre representantes e representados. Em seguida, uma terceira se????o aponta poss??veis fronteiras ou limites que permitiriam distinguir o escopo das pesquisas de opini??o p??blica realizadas pelos governos daquele das conduzidas com prop??sito cient??fico, mercadol??gico e, sobretudo, eleitoral. Finalmente, a quarta se????o descreve a recente experi??ncia do governo brasileiro nessa ??rea

Efetividade da participação no legislativo capixaba : um estudo sobre as audiências públicas do orçamento (2007-2014)

Esta pesquisa é um estudo sobre as audiências públicas da Lei Orçamentária Anual (LOA) realizadas pela Assembleia Legislativa do Espírito Santo (ALES) no período de 2007 até 2014. O tema central deste trabalho é a efetividade da participação das audiências, ancorada em duas dimensões: o momento deliberativo e os resultados das audiências. Partimos do pressuposto que, apesar da dificuldade de mensurar efeitos práticos, as Instituições Participativas, tais como as audiências da LOA, atuam em um propósito de aprofundamento da democracia, especialmente na destinação de recursos de acordo com demandas da sociedade. Dentro desse cenário, o presente trabalho analisa elementos constituintes das audiências (perfil dos legisladores, desenho institucional, perfil dos participantes, influência do poder Executivo e as emendas parlamentares) para avaliar a efetividade da participação. Para esta análise, utilizamos uma abordagem multimétodo com a combinação de três ferramentas de pesquisa: análise documental (relatórios da LOA, legislações e vídeos das audiências públicas), survey (aplicado a participantes das audiências de 2014) e entrevista semiestruturada (com os parlamentares que fazem parte da Comissão de Finanças). A análise aponta para a baixa efetividade das audiências a partir da combinação de vários fatores, entre eles a baixa institucionalização, a influência do poder Executivo no processo a partir de sua relação com os parlamentares e o uso das emendas parlamentares como estratégia eleitoral.

Partidos políticos e direito de oposição a Pirro

Art. 114º da Constituição da República Portuguesa: “1. Os partidos políticos participam nos órgãos baseados no sufrágio universal e directo, de acordo com a sua representatividade eleitoral. 2. É reconhecido às minorias o direito de oposição democrática, nos termos da Constituição e da lei. 3. Os partidos políticos representados na Assembleia da República e que não façam parte do Governo gozam, designadamente, do direito de serem informados regular e directamente pelo Governo sobre o andamento dos principais assuntos de interesse público, de igual direito gozando os partidos políticos representados nas Assembleias Legislativas das regiões autónomas e em quaisquer outras assembleias designadas por eleição directa relativamente aos correspondentes executivos de que não façam parte.”. § Article 114 of the Constitution of the Portuguese Republic. "1. Political parties shall participate in organs based on direct and universal suffrage, according to their electoral representation. 2. It is recognized minorities the right to democratic opposition, under the Constitution and the law. 3. Political parties represented in Parliament and not forming part of the Government shall, in particular, the right to be informed regularly and directly by the Government on the progress of the main matters of public interest, equal rights enjoying the political parties represented in Legislative Assemblies of the autonomous regions and any other assemblies formed through direct elections with respect to the corresponding executives who are not part. ".

Observations on the Brazilian presidency, democracy, and governance

This article presents the first results of research on the organization and administration of the Brazilian presidency and problems of democratic governance in Brazil. Biases of Euro-centrism in current views of presidentialism, democracy, governance, and representation are criticized and new comparative analysis of political experiences in the Americas called for. Initial analysis of the Brazilian presidency reveals a unique combination of executive-led electoral representation and muddling through governance since the transition from military rule.

Reelection incentives and political budget cycle: evidence from Brazil

This article tests the presence of political budget cycle (PBC) in municipal elections in Brazil and checks whether mayors who adopt such policy have greater probability of reelection. Based on fiscal and electoral data of 5,406 Brazilian municipalities and applying the difference-in-differences econometric method as well as logistic regressions, the results provide some evidence of PBC in Brazil, although its magnitude and consistency varies depending on the years used as electoral and non-electoral years. On average, reelectable mayors spend close to 3% more in election years than nonreelectables. Moreover, reelectables who do run for reelection present a variation in spending which is close to 5% superior to that of non-reelectables and non-runners. Additionally, the results suggest that mayors who increase public spending during electoral periods have greater chances of being reelected, as long as such spending is done within deficit limits acceptable by voters.

Accuracy of polls in Portugal

This study has a vast analysis, studying almost all the pre-electoral polls published or issued in Portugal in the month previous to each of the elections, since 1991 until the last one that took place in February 2005. The accuracy measures I used were adapted from the study carried out by Frederick Mosteller in the report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls, regarding the USA elections of 1948.

EVIV: An end-to-end verifiable Internet voting system

Traditionally, a country's electoral system requires the voter to vote at a specific day and place, which conflicts with the mobility usually seen in modern live styles. Thus, the widespread of Internet (mobile) broadband access can be seen as an opportunity to deal with this mobility problem, i.e. the adoption of an Internet voting system can make the live of voter's much more convenient; however, a widespread Internet voting systems adoption relies on the ability to develop trustworthy systems, i.e. systems that are verifiable and preserve the voter's privacy. Building such a system is still an open research problem. Our contribution is a new Internet voting system: EVIV, a highly sound End-to-end Verifiable Internet Voting system, which offers full voter's mobility and preserves the voter's privacy from the vote casting PC even if the voter votes from a public PC, such as a PC at a cybercafe or at a public library. Additionally, EVIV has private vote verification mechanisms, in which the voter just has to perform a simple match of two small strings (4-5 alphanumeric characters), that detect and protect against vote manipulations both at the insecure vote client platform and at the election server side. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sustentabilidade das finanças locais

Dissertação de Mestrado em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais

Nominations across gender: An empirical investigation of Brazilian municipal elections

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Is Information Power? Using Mobile Phones and Free Newspapers during an Election in Mozambique*

African elections often reveal low levels of political accountability. We assess different forms of voter education during an election in Mozambique. Three interventions providing information to voters and calling for their electoral participation were randomized; an SMS-based information campaign, an SMS hotline for electoral misconduct, and the distribution of a free newspaper. To measure impact, we look at official electoral results, reports by electoral observers, behavioral and survey data. We find positive effects of all treatments on voter turnout. We observe that the distribution of the newspaper led to more accountability-based participation and to a decrease in electoral problems.

The impact of national and international observers in democratic elections: A randomized control trial from the Mozambican elections of 2009

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Campanha negativa nas eleições legislativas de 2011: uma análise do discurso político

Esta dissertação pretende observar o fenómeno das campanhas negativas nas eleições portuguesas, usando como caso de estudo a campanha eleitoral das eleições legislativas de 2011. Procurou-se analisar o discurso político dos partidos nesta campanha eleitoral, recorrendo à análise de conteúdo. Para apoiar a interpretação dos resultados foram realizadas entrevistas aos directores de campanha ou outros actores políticos com um papel relevante na definição e implementação da estratégia eleitoral do BE, CDU, CDS, PS e PSD. Os resultados indicam que a campanha eleitoral de 2011 foi essencialmente positiva: a maior parte do discurso dos partidos focou-se na apresentação e defesa das suas ideias, programas e qualidades e não na crítica aos adversários. As campanhas negativas incidiram sobretudo sobre conteúdos políticos e os ataques não foram personalizados. Os resultados indicam ainda que as teorias que explicam a utilização de campanhas negativas noutros países não se aplicam em Portugal. Segundo os entrevistados, apesar do confronto de ideias ser essencial, as campanhas negativas não resultam em Portugal, ao contrário do que acontece noutros países.

Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Direito Eleitoral e inelegibilidades por desvio de conduta: reflexões a partir da experiência brasileira

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito Administrativo