994 resultados para Técnicas de análise estatística


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Pós-graduação em Educação - FFC

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Considering the relevance of researches concerning credit risk, model diversity and the existent indicators, this thesis aimed at verifying if the Fleuriet Model contributes in discriminating Brazilian open capital companies in the analysis of credit concession. We specifically intended to i) identify the economic-financial indicators used in credit risk models; ii) identify which economic-financial indicators best discriminate companies in the analysis of credit concession; iii) assess which techniques used (discriminant analysis, logistic regression and neural networks) present the best accuracy to predict company bankruptcy. To do this, the theoretical background approached the concepts of financial analysis, which introduced themes relative to the company evaluation process; considerations on credit, risk and analysis; Fleuriet Model and its indicators, and, finally, presented the techniques for credit analysis based on discriminant analysis, logistic regression and artificial neural networks. Methodologically, the research was defined as quantitative, regarding its nature, and explanatory, regarding its type. It was developed using data derived from bibliographic and document analysis. The financial demonstrations were collected by means of the Economática ® and the BM$FBOVESPA website. The sample was comprised of 121 companies, being those 70 solvents and 51 insolvents from various sectors. In the analyses, we used 22 indicators of the Traditional Model and 13 of the Fleuriet Model, totalizing 35 indicators. The economic-financial indicators which were a part of, at least, one of the three final models were: X1 (Working Capital over Assets), X3 (NCG over Assets), X4 (NCG over Net Revenue), X8 (Type of Financial Structure), X9 (Net Thermometer), X16 (Net Equity divided by the total demandable), X17 (Asset Turnover), X20 (Net Equity Profitability), X25 (Net Margin), X28 (Debt Composition) and X31 (Net Equity over Asset). The final models presented setting values of: 90.9% (discriminant analysis); 90.9% (logistic regression) and 97.8% (neural networks). The modeling in neural networks presented higher accuracy, which was confirmed by the ROC curve. In conclusion, the indicators of the Fleuriet Model presented relevant results for the research of credit risk, especially if modeled by neural networks.

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Experiments using factorial arrangement of treatments are rather common and useful in agricultural research. The main advantage is the possibility of testing many hypotheses, allowing broader conclusions over different factors, studied simultaneously. Factorial arrangements are used to compare levels of each factor (main effects), and also to verify if the differences among levels of a given factor are dependent on the levels of the other factors (interacions). In the analysis of data from factorial experiments, difficulty is increased when additional treatments are included. Inclusion of one or more additional treatments is a quite common practice, since such treatments are usually taken as reference or standard for evaluation and comparasion of the remaimng treatments, or aiming complementary information. This increase of difficulty is however low, compared to the advantages. As in literature there are few references about the statistical analysis of factorial experiments with additonal treatments, and given straightforward use in experimentation, the objective of this work was the presentation of approach for the use of factorial experiments with additonal treatments trough the analysis of some examples using the SAS® software, with the corresponding theoretical development, obtaining the system of normal equations, estimators of the parameters and variance of contrasts among two treatment means. It is suggested that additional treatments should be used with caution. The analysis of variance of such kind of experiment was presented using matrix notation.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)