A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

Interstitial pregnancies' diagnosis and management: an eleven cases series.

PRINCIPLES: Interstitial pregnancy represents 2% of ectopic pregnancies, but it is a highly morbid condition with a 2.5% of maternal mortality. Its diagnostic and therapeutic management remains controversial. The aim of this review is to describe the management of interstitial pregnancy in our institution between 2001 and 2011 and to define some general rules for the clinical practice. METHODS: Single institution retrospective study. RESULTS: Eleven women were treated for interstitial pregnancy. The median age was 33 years and the median gestity was 4. Seven patients had a history of gynaecological surgery and four interstitial pregnancies followed in vitro fertilisation. The diagnosis was made at a median gestational age of seven weeks with a median beta-HCG level of 5,838 U/l. Six of the eleven patients received an initial treatment with intracornual methotrexate, three with intramuscular methotrexate and two with surgery. The median time to beta-HCG resolution was 58 days. Three of the eleven patients needed a second line treatment: two after intramuscular methotrexate and one after intracornual methotrexate. Six patients had further pregnancies and delivered by caesarean section. CONCLUSIONS: A high prevalence of previous ectopic pregnancies, gynaecological surgery and of pregnancies resulting from in vitro fertilisation was observed. The earliness of the diagnosis was the factor that allowed a conservative treatment in most cases. Beta-HCG level follow up was fundamental in allowing a second line therapy but beta-HCG can persist over a long period of time and this must be taken into account due to its possible psychological impact. Intracornual methotrexate seems to be more efficacious than intramuscular methotrexate in our series.

Crisi de l'euro, identitat europea i la sostenibilitat de la UE com a projecte transnacional. Narratives mediàtiques de la crisi de deute europeu (anys 2010-2011) a la premsa de referència de diferents països de la UE.

El present treball, Crisi de l’euro, identitat europea i la sostenibilitat de laUE com a projecte transnacional. Narratives mediàtiques de la crisi dedeute europeu (anys 2010-2011) a la premsa de referència de diferentspaïsos de la UE, és una proposta de recerca doctoral. La recerca que esproposa pretèn reflexionar sobre fins a quin punt es dónen les condicionsper a l’existència d’una esfera pública europea en la premsa de referènciageneralista, a partir de l’estudi de les cobertures informatives sobre la criside deute sobirà a la zona Euro efectuades per diaris del Regne Unit,França, Espanya, Alemanya i Itàlia. Amb aquest objectiu, es dissenya una recerca empírica centrada en determinar el grau de convergència discursiva i la visibilitat i els valors atorgats a institucions europees i estatals, i a col·lectius identitaris mitjançant l’estudi d’agendes mediàtiques, frames, idees polítiques i fonts informatives.

Nets: Network estimation for time series

This work proposes novel network analysis techniques for multivariate time series.We define the network of a multivariate time series as a graph where verticesdenote the components of the process and edges denote non zero long run partialcorrelations. We then introduce a two step LASSO procedure, called NETS, toestimate high dimensional sparse Long Run Partial Correlation networks. This approachis based on a VAR approximation of the process and allows to decomposethe long run linkages into the contribution of the dynamic and contemporaneousdependence relations of the system. The large sample properties of the estimatorare analysed and we establish conditions for consistent selection and estimation ofthe non zero long run partial correlations. The methodology is illustrated with anapplication to a panel of U.S. bluechips.

Iowa Fisheries Research Technical Series No. 75-1 Variations in the abundance of channel catfish year classes in the upper Mississippi River and causative factors Don R. Helms, Fishery Research Biologist Fisheries Section Jerry M. Conley, Superintendent of Fisheries December, 1975

study of channel catfish in the Mississippi River to determine differences in year class abundance and causative factors

Strong time dependence of the 76-gene prognostic signature for node-negative breast cancer patients in the TRANSBIG multicenter independent validation series.

PURPOSE: Recently, a 76-gene prognostic signature able to predict distant metastases in lymph node-negative (N(-)) breast cancer patients was reported. The aims of this study conducted by TRANSBIG were to independently validate these results and to compare the outcome with clinical risk assessment. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Gene expression profiling of frozen samples from 198 N(-) systemically untreated patients was done at the Bordet Institute, blinded to clinical data and independent of Veridex. Genomic risk was defined by Veridex, blinded to clinical data. Survival analyses, done by an independent statistician, were done with the genomic risk and adjusted for the clinical risk, defined by Adjuvant! Online. RESULTS: The actual 5- and 10-year time to distant metastasis were 98% (88-100%) and 94% (83-98%), respectively, for the good profile group and 76% (68-82%) and 73% (65-79%), respectively, for the poor profile group. The actual 5- and 10-year overall survival were 98% (88-100%) and 87% (73-94%), respectively, for the good profile group and 84% (77-89%) and 72% (63-78%), respectively, for the poor profile group. We observed a strong time dependence of this signature, leading to an adjusted hazard ratio of 13.58 (1.85-99.63) and 8.20 (1.10-60.90) at 5 years and 5.11 (1.57-16.67) and 2.55 (1.07-6.10) at 10 years for time to distant metastasis and overall survival, respectively. CONCLUSION: This independent validation confirmed the performance of the 76-gene signature and adds to the growing evidence that gene expression signatures are of clinical relevance, especially for identifying patients at high risk of early distant metastases.

Stationarity analysis of historical flood series in France and Spain (14th-20th centuries)

Interdisciplinary frameworks for studying natural hazards and their temporal trends have an important potential in data generation for risk assessment, land use planning, and therefore the sustainable management of resources. This paper focuses on the adjustments required because of the wide variety of scientific fields involved in the reconstruction and characterisation of flood events for the past 1000 years. The aim of this paper is to describe various methodological aspects of the study of flood events in their historical dimension, including the critical evaluation of old documentary and instrumental sources, flood-event classification and hydraulic modelling, and homogeneity and quality control tests. Standardized criteria for flood classification have been defined and applied to the Isère and Drac floods in France, from 1600 to 1950, and to the Ter, the Llobregat and the Segre floods, in Spain, from 1300 to 1980. The analysis on the Drac and Isère data series from 1600 to the present day showed that extraordinary and catastrophic floods were not distributed uniformly in time. However, the largest floods (general catastrophic floods) were homogeneously distributed in time within the period 1600¿1900. No major flood occurred during the 20th century in these rivers. From 1300 to the present day, no homogeneous behaviour was observed for extraordinary floods in the Spanish rivers. The largest floods were uniformly distributed in time within the period 1300-1900, for the Segre and Ter rivers.

Infection of the central nervous system caused by varicella zoster virus reactivation: a retrospective case series study.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest that varicella zoster virus (VZV)-associated complications of the central nervous system (CNS) are more common and diverse than previously thought. The main purpose of this article is to describe the clinical characteristics and the outcome of patients suffering from meningitis and encephalitis caused by VZV reactivation. METHODS: A retrospective case study of adult patients (≥16 years old) diagnosed with a VZV reactivation in the CNS was performed. The cases were identified by a qualitative PCR DNA assay of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) at the Regional Hospital of Lugano between January 1, 2003 and July 31, 2010. RESULTS: Eleven out of 519 CSF samples (2.1%), submitted from patients with a clinical diagnosis of viral meningitis or encephalitis, were positive for VZV. A vesiculo-pustular skin eruption was observed in only five patients (45%). In six cases (55%), a systemic inflammatory syndrome was absent. The clinical outcome was favorable in eight patients (73%). Only one out of 11 patients (9%) died. The four patients with encephalitis had a less favorable prognosis: one patient recovered without residual neurological sequelae; two had a chronic neuropsychological handicap, speech difficulties, facial nerve palsy, and focal seizures; one patient died. We estimated an annual incidence rate of VZV infection of the CNS of 1.02/100 000 inhabitants for southern Switzerland. CONCLUSIONS: Screening of CSF for VZV by PCR is recommended for all patients with encephalitis and for those with viral meningitis of unclear origin in order to better target antiviral treatment.

Implementing an interfaculty series of courses on interprofessional collaboration in prelicensure health science curriculums.

Introduction: Interprofessional collaborative practices are increasingly recognized as an effective way to deal with complex health problems. However, health sciences students continue to be trained in specialized programs and have little occasion for learning in interdisciplinary contexts. Program Development: The project's purpose was to develop content and an educational design for new prelicensure interfaculty courses on interprofessional collaboration in patient and family-centered care which embedded interprofessional education principles where participants learn with, from and about each other. Implementation: Intensive training was part of a 45-hour program, offered each semester, which was divided into three 15-hour courses given on weekends, to enhance accessibility. Evaluation: A total of 215 students completed questionnaires following the courses, to assess their satisfaction with the educational content. Pre/post measures assessed perception of skills acquisition and perceived benefits of interprofessional collaboration training. Results showed a significant increase from the students' point of view in the knowledge and benefits to be gained from interprofessional collaboration training.

Decreased Probability of Initial Pain Cessation in Classic Trigeminal Neuralgia Treated With Gamma Knife Surgery in Case of Previous Microvascular Decompression: A Prospective Series of 45 Patients With >1 Year of Follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Microvascular decompression (MVD) is the reference technique for pharmacoresistant trigeminal neuralgia (TN). OBJECTIVE: To establish whether the safety and efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery for recurrent TN are influenced by prior MVD. METHODS: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 54 of 737 patients (45 of 497 with >1 year of follow-up) had a history of MVD (approximately half also with previous ablative procedure) and were operated on with Gamma Knife surgery for TN in the Timone University Hospital. A single 4-mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.6 mm (range, 3.9-11.9 mm) anterior to the emergence of the nerve. A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range, 70-90 Gy) was delivered. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 39.5 months (range, 14.1-144.6 months). Thirty-five patients (77.8%) were initially pain free in a median time of 14 days (range, 0-180 days), much lower compared with our global population of classic TN (P = .01). Their actuarial probabilities of remaining pain-free without medication at 3, 5, 7, and 10 years were 66.5%, 59.1%, 59.1%, and 44.3%. The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 1 year was 9.1% and remained stable until 12 years (median, 8 months). CONCLUSION: Patients with previous MVD showed a significantly lower probability of initial pain cessation compared with our global population with classic TN (P = .01). The toxicity was low (only 9.1% hypoesthesia); furthermore, no patient reported bothersome hypoesthesia. However, the probability of maintaining pain relief without medication was 44.3% at 10 years, similar to our global series of classic TN (P = .85). ABBREVIATIONS: BNI, Barrow Neurological InstituteCI, confidence intervalCTN, classic trigeminal neuralgiaGKS, Gamma Knife surgeryHR, hazard ratioMVD, microvascular decompressionTN, trigeminal neuralgia.

Bilateral extraperitoneal uterosacral vaginal vault suspension: a 2-year follow-up longitudinal case series of 123 patients.

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: The objective of this study is to assess anatomical and functional results of the extraperitoneal uterosacral ligament suspension (USL) in women with post-hysterectomy vaginal vault prolapse. METHODS: One hundred and twenty-three consecutive women were included. Concurrent procedures were anterior colporraphy with fascial repair (20%) and mesh reinforcement (49%), posterior colporraphy with fascial repair (38%) and mesh reinforcement (56%) and a sling procedure (29%). Women were assessed using Baden and Walker and pelvic organ prolapse quantification classification pre- and post-operatively. RESULTS: One hundred and ten patients (89%) were available for follow-up. Mean follow-up was 2 years. Objective success rate regarding the vaginal cuff is 95.4%. Global anatomical success rate was 85.5%. Urinary, coital and bowel symptoms were improved following surgery. Mesh exposure rate was 19.3%, with all cases managed conservatively or with minor interventions. CONCLUSION: Bilateral extraperitoneal USL is an effective operation to restore apical support with low morbidity, which avoids potential risks associated with opening the peritoneal cavity.

Rocas volcánicas de las series Inferior y Media del Grupo El Cobre en la Sierra Maestra (Cuba Oriental): volcanismo generado en un arco de islas tholeiítico

Las características geoquímicas (elementos mayores y trazas) de las rocas analizadas son similares a las del arco volcánico de Ke rmadec en Pa c í fico SW. Por último, los bajos contenidos en REE, el patrón de REE con morfología plana, así como los bajos contenidos en elementos incompatibles (K, Rb, Zr, Th) son similares a los de las series tipo IAT presentes en el arco volcánico del Caribe. Estos nuevos datos sobre el volcanismo del Paleógeno de la Sierra Maestra sugieren que los modelos de placas tectónicas que han sido propuestos para explicar el origen del arco volcánico de Sierra Maestra deben ser revisados.

¿Son excesivamente suaves las series de contabilidad nacional trimestral?

Este trabajo analiza si las series de Contabilidad Nacional Trimestral de España son excesivamente suaves y, por lo tanto, si son realmente informativas de la evolución de la economía española a corto plazo. Mediante la utilización de las técnicas de análisis espectral se observa que las series trimestrales españolas presentan una variabilidad mayor que las de otros países de la OCDE en el intervalo de frecuencias más bajas (asociadas al comportamiento de la serie a largo plazo ) y una variabilidad menor en el intervalo de frecuencias más altas (asociadas al ruido que contiene la serie). El motivo de este comportamiento diferencial de las series trimestrales españolas se encuentra en el método utilizado por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística por estimar la señal ciclo-tendencia de los indicadores utilizados como referencia, concretamente, el conocido como filtro de líneas aéreas modificado (LAM)