A review of project evaluation methodologies to address net impacts and risks of toll road projects to the community

Project evaluation is a process of measuring costs, benefits, risks and uncertainties for the purpose of decision-making by estimating and assessing impacts of the project to the community. The effects of impacts of toll roads are similar but different from the general non-tolled roads. Project evaluation methodologies are extensively studied and applied to various transport infrastructure projects. However, there is no definitive methodology to evaluate toll roads. This review discusses the impacts of toll roads then reviews the limitations of existing project evaluation methodologies when evaluating toll road impacts. The review identified gaps of knowledge of toll evaluations. First, the treatment of toll in project evaluation, particularly in Cost-Benefit Analysis requires further study to explore the appropriate methodology. Secondly, the project evaluation methodology needs to place strong emphasis on empirically based risk and uncertainty assessment. Addressing the limitations of the existing project evaluation methodologies leads to improvements of the methodology in practical level as well as fills the gap of knowledge of project evaluation for toll roads with respect to net impacts to the community.

Impact of 1-methylcyclopropene treatment on the sensory quality of 'Bartlett' pear fruit

The ethylene biosynthesis inhibitor, 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP), has been commercially used to extend the storage life of European pear fruit and to allow shipment to distant markets. However, the influence of 1-MCP on the ability of fruit to ripen to an acceptable sensory quality has not been investigated in 'Bartlett' pear, one of the most aromatic of pear fruit. In the current study, early-, mid- and late-season 'Bartlett' pear fruit were treated with 0.6μLL-1 1-MCP at 0°C for 24h, 100μLL-1 ethylene at 20°C for 24h, or untreated before immediate transfer to 20°C for ripening until eating soft (13N firmness). Fruit from each treatment were subjected to objective and sensory quality evaluation once ripe. Sensory quality showed differences related to harvest maturity; the importance of harvest maturity depended on the treatment. Treatment with 1-MCP effectively slowed fruit ripening and therefore extended postharvest life, but also resulted in fully ripened pears with more desirable sensory traits, as compared with ethylene-treated and untreated pears. The enhanced sensory quality was related to higher sweetness, juiciness and pear aroma and reduced fermented aroma, gritty texture and tart taste. In addition, the sensory profiles of 1-MCP-treated pears were more stable among fruit from the three harvest dates than the ethylene-treated pears, which exhibited very different sensory profiles between early- and late-season fruits. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.

Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

Evaluation of mud filtrate clarification to improve factory performance

Clarification performance and flocculant dosage is strongly linked to the mud solids loading in the feed entering the clarifier. The recycle of filtrate can represent an extra ~10-15% mud solids loading on the clarifier, thereby reducing its effective capacity. Filtrate recycling may cause significant increase in turbidity, complexed calcium ion formation, phosphate, proteins and polysaccharides in mixed juice that impact on evaporator scale formation and molasses exhaustion. The paper details the results obtained from laboratory, pilot scale and factory trials of filtrate clarification using both sedimentation and flotation methods. Clarified filtrate could be produced of similar quality to ESJ. Filtrate clarification was able to significantly remove insoluble solids, turbidity, phosphate, and polysaccharides content with slight reductions in minerals content of the filtrate. On the basis of improved filtrate quality, the clarified filtrate could be directed to ESJ, instead of the normal practice of directing the mud filtrate to mixed juice. The potential impacts of implementing filtrate clarification are discussed in respect to improved performance and throughput of the clarification station.

Study of sleep and evaluation of sumatriptan and rizatriptan in the acute treatment of migraine in children and adolescents

Migraine is a common disease in children and adolescents, affecting roughly 10% of school-aged children. Recent studies have revealed an increasing incidence of childhood migraine, but migraine remains an underrecognized and undertreated condition in the pediatric population. Migraine attacks are painful and disabling and can affect a child´s life in many ways. Effective drug treatment is usually needed. The new migraine drugs, triptans, were introduced at the beginning of the 1990s and have since been shown to be very effective in the treatment of migraine attacks in adults. Although they are widely used in adults, the acute treatment of migraine in children and adolescents is still based on paracetamol and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Some children can control their attacks satisfactorily with simple analgesics, but at least one-third need more powerful treatments. When this thesis work commenced, hardly any information existed on the efficacy and safety of triptans in children. The study aim of the thesis was to identify more efficient treatments of migraine for children and adolescents by investigating the efficacy of sumatriptan nasal spray and oral rizatriptan compared with placebo in them. Sleep has an impact on migraine in many aspects. Despite the clinical relevance and common manifestation of sleep in the context of migraine in children, very little research data on the true frequency of sleep exist. As sleeping is so often related to childhood migraine, it can be a confounding factor in clinical drug trials of migraine treatments in children and adolescents. How the results of a sleeping child should be analyzed is under continual debate. The aim of the thesis was also to clarify this as well as to evaluate the frequency of sleeping during migraine attacks in children and factors affecting frequency. Both nasal sumatriptan and oral rizatriptan were effective (superior to placebo), and well tolerated in treatment of migraine attacks in children and adolescents aged 8-17 and 6-17 years, respectively. No serous adverse effects were observed. The results of this work suggest that nasal sumatriptan 20 mg and rizatriptan 10 mg can be effectively and safely used to treat migraine attacks in adolescents aged over 12 years if more effective drugs than NSAIDs are needed. No difference was observed in efficacy or safety of nasal sumatriptan and rizatriptan between children aged younger than 12 years and older children, but because the treated number of patients under 12 years is still small, more studies are needed before sumatriptan or rizatriptan can be recommended for use in this population. Sleeping during migraine attacks was very common, and most children at least occasionally slept during an attack. Falling asleep was especially common in children under eight years of age and during the first hour after the onset of attack. Children who were able to sleep soon after attack onset were more likely pain-free at two hours. Sleeping probably both improves recovery from a migraine attack and is a sign of headache relief. Falling asleep should be classified as a sign of headache relief in clinical drug trials when studying migraine treatments in children and adolescents.

A Critical Evaluation of the MARS Treatment in Finland

The Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System (MARS) is an extracorporeal albumin dialysis device which is used in the treatment of liver failure patients. This treatment was first utilized in Finland in 2001, and since then, over 200 patients have been treated. The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the impact of the MARS treatment on patient outcome, the clinical and biochemical variables, as well as on the psychological and economic aspects of the treatment in Finland. This thesis encompasses 195 MARS-treated patients (including patients with acute liver failure (ALF), acute-on-chronic liver failure (AOCLF) and graft failure), and a historical control group of 46 ALF patients who did not undergo MARS. All patients received a similar standard medical therapy at the same intensive care unit. The baseline data (demographics, laboratory and clinical variables) and MARS treatment-related and health-related quality-of-life data were recorded before and after treatment. The direct medical costs were determined for a period of 3.5 years.Additionally, the outcome of patients (survival, native liver recovery and need for liver transplantation) and survival predicting factors were investigated. In the outcome analysis, for the MARS-treated ALF patients, their 6-month survival (75% vs. 61%, P=0.07) and their native liver recovery rate (49% vs. 17%, P<0.001) were higher, and their need for transplantations was lower (29% vs. 57%, P= 0.001) than for the historical controls. However, the etiological distribution of the ALF patients referred to our unit has changed considerably over the past decade and the percentage of patients with a more favorable prognosis has increased. The etiology of liver failure was the most important predictor of the outcome. Other survival predicting factors in ALF included hepatic encephalopathy, the coagulation factors and the liver enzyme levels prior to MARS treatment. In terms of prognosis, the MARS treatment of the cirrhotic AOCLF patient seems meaningful only when the patient is eligible for transplantation. The MARS treatment appears to halt the progression of encephalopathy and reduce the blood concentration of neuroactive amino acids, albumin-bound and water-soluble toxins. In general, the effects of the MARS treatment seem to stabilize the patients, thus allowing additional time either for the native liver to recover, or for the patients to endure the prolonged waiting for transplantation. Furthermore, for the ALF patients, the MARS treatment appeared to be less costly and more cost-efficient than the standard medical therapy alone. In conclusion, the MARS treatment appears to have a beneficial effect on the patient outcome in ALF and in those AOCLF patients who can be bridged to transplantation.

Evaluation of the Queensland Minimum Passing Distance Road Rule

The two-year trial of the Queensland minimum passing distance (MPD) road rule began on 7 April 2014. The rule requires motor vehicles to provide cyclists a minimum lateral passing distance of one metre when overtaking cyclists in a speed zone of 60 km/h or less, and 1.5 metres when the speed limit is greater than 60 km/h. This document summarises the evaluation of the effectiveness of the new rule in terms of its: 1. practical implementation; 2. impact on road users’ attitudes and perceptions; and 3. road safety benefits. The Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS-Q) developed the evaluation framework (Haworth, Schramm, Kiata-Holland, Vallmuur, Watson & Debnath; 2014) for the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR) and was later commissioned to undertake the evaluation. The evaluation included the following components: • Review of correspondence received by TMR; • Interviews and focus groups with Queensland Police Service (QPS) officers; • Road user survey; • Observational study; and • Crash, injury and infringement data analysis.

The development and preliminary evaluation of an education intervention to prevent driveway run-over incidents

Objective While driveway run-over incidents continue to be a cause of serious injury and deaths among young children in Australia, few empirically evaluated educational interventions have been developed which address these incidents. Addressing this gap, this study describes the development and evaluation of a paper-based driveway safety intervention targeting caregivers of children aged 5 years or younger. Design Cross-sectional survey. Method and setting Informed by previous research, the intervention targeted key caregiver safety behaviours that address driveway risks. To assess the impact of the intervention, 137 Queensland (Australia) caregivers (95.0% women; mean age = 34.97 years) were recruited. After receiving the intervention, changes to a number of outcomes such as caregiver risk perception, safety knowledge and behavioural intentions were measured. Results Findings indicated that the intervention had increased general and specific situational risk awareness and safety knowledge among a substantial proportion of participants. Close to one-quarter of the sample strongly agreed that the intervention had increased these outcomes. In addition, 71.6% of the sample reported that they intended to make changes to their routine in and around the driveway, as a result of reading the intervention material and a further, quarter of the participants strongly agreed that the information provided would be a help both to themselves (26.5%) and other caregivers (33.8%) to keep their children safe in the driveway. Conclusion: While the educational intervention requires further validation, findings from this study suggest that intervention content and format increases driveway safety.

Guided respiration mindfulness therapy: Development and evaluation of a brief therapist training program

The present paper describes the development and evaluation of a standardized multi-component therapist training program in guided respiration mindfulness therapy (GRMT). GMRT is a manual-based, experimental clinical intervention involving concentrated focus on sustained self-regulation of breathing, application of mindfulness to emergent somatic experience and relaxation. Therapists (n = 61) new to the approach attended a 2-day experiential workshop and were evaluated pre-post workshop for change in intervention knowledge, as well as change in mindfulness. These trainees also participated in post-workshop focus group sessions to explore perception of the intervention. A subset of 40 therapists participated in a second training component, and 14 of these were rated for competent delivery of the intervention during participation in a clinical trial. During training, therapists personally received the treatment giving the opportunity to assess treatment session (n = 283) impact on sense of wellbeing. Results indicated a brief focused training program can equip therapists with basic knowledge and skills required to deliver the standardized manual-based treatment. Qualitative analysis of focus group sessions showed that therapists endorsed the intervention for clinical use and found it personally beneficial. This research provides a foundation for further evaluation of clinical effectiveness of the intervention.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Consumer Evaluation of Hybrid Innovations (summary section only)

Hybrid innovations, or new products that combine two existing product categories into one, are increasingly popular in today’s marketplace. Despite this proliferation, few studies address them. The purpose of this thesis is to examine consumer evaluation of hybrid innovations by focusing on consumer categorization of such innovations and on factors contributing positively and negatively to their evaluation. This issue is examined by means of three studies. The first study addresses the proportion of consumers categorizing hybrid products as single- versus dual-purpose, what contributes to such a categorization, what differences can be found between the two groups, and if categorization can and should be included in models of innovation adoption. The second study expands on the scope by including motivation as a predictor of consumer evaluation and examines two cognitive and affective factors and their differential impact on innovation evaluation. Finally, the third study examines the product comparisons single- versus dual-purpose categorization induce. These three essays together build up a broader understanding of hybrid innovation evaluation. The thesis uses theories from both psychology and marketing to examine the issues at hand. Conceptual combination and analogical learning theories from psychology are used to comprehend categorization and knowledge transfer. From marketing, consumer behavior and innovation adoption studies are addressed to better understand the link between categorization and product evaluation and the factors contributing to product evaluation. The main results of the current thesis are that (1) most consumers categorize hybrid products as single- and not as dual-purpose products, (2) consumers that categorize them as dual-purpose find them more attractive (3) motivation has a significant effect on consumer evaluation of innovations; cognitive factors promote an emphasis on product net benefits, whereas affective factors induce consumers to consider product meaning in the form of categorization and perceived product complexity, (4) categorization constrains subsequent product evaluation, and (5) categorization can and should be included to models of innovation adoption. Maria Sääksjärvi is associated with CERS, the Center for Relationship Marketing and Service Management at the Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration

A Continuation of the Happiness Success Story: Does Happiness Impact Service Quality?

A Continuation of the Happiness Success Story: Does Happiness Impact Service Quality? The effects of long-term happiness on various outcomes for the individual and society have been studied extensively in psychology but the concept has so far received limited research attention in marketing. Happiness is defined as a summary judgment of one’s life. Previous research has shown that happiness is a relatively stable perception of happiness in one’s life. Thus, happiness in this thesis is long-term and more global as a phenomenon than in the marketing literature, where happiness is commonly conceptualized as an emotion, feeling or momentary state of happiness. Although there is plenty of research on consumer affect and its impact on service responses, there are no studies on the effect of long-term happiness on service evaluation. As empirical evidence suggests that happy people perceive smaller and bigger events in life more positively than less happy people and that happy people are more prone to experience positive feelings and less of negative feelings it was hypothesized that happiness affects service quality directly but also indirectly through mood. Therefore, in this thesis, it was set out to explore if happiness affects customer-perceived service quality. A survey method was adopted to study the relationship between happiness, mood and service quality. Two studies were conducted with a total of 17 investigated services. Out of the 17 different investigated cases, happiness was found to positively affect service quality in only four cases. The results from the two studies also provide weak support for a positive relationship between mood and service quality. Out of the 17 cases, mood was found to positively affect service quality in only three cases and the results provide additional evidence for the stream of literature arguing that affect plays no or only a minimal role in service quality. Based on the collective results in this study, it can be concluded that the evidence for a positive relationship between happiness, mood and service quality is weak. However, in this thesis, it was recognized that the happiness concept is relevant for marketers and serve potential to explain marketing related phenomena. Marketing researchers who are interested in studying happiness are advised to focus research attention on consumer well-being.

Robust prediction of residual velocities and ballistic limits of projectiles for impact on thin aluminium plates

This paper deals with the simulation-driven study of the impact of hardened steel projectiles on thin aluminium target plates using explicit finite element analysis as implemented in LS-DYNA. The evaluation of finite element modelling includes a comprehensive mesh convergence study using shell elements for representing target plates and the solid element-based representation of ogivalnosed projectiles. A user-friendly automatic contact detection algorithm is used for capturing interaction between the projectile and the target plate. It is shown that the proper choice of mesh density and strain rate-dependent material properties is crucial as these parameters significantly affect the computed residual velocity. The efficacy of correlation with experimental data is adjudged in terms of a 'correlation index' defined in the present study for which values close to unity are desirable.By simulating laboratory impact tests on thin aluminium plates carried out by earlier investigators, extremely good prediction of experimental ballistic limits has been observed with correlation indices approaching unity. Additional simulation-based parametric studies have been carried out and results consistent with test data have been obtained. The simulation procedures followed in the present study can be applied with confidence in designing thin aluminium armour plates for protection against low calibre projectiles.

Impact of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries : a comparative study of Kenya and Zambia

This research investigates the impacts of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries and it evaluates the supply perspective of food security. This research theme is applied on the agricultural sector in Kenya and in Zambia by studying the role policies played in the maize sub-sector. An evaluation of selected policies introduced at the beginning of the 1980s is made, as well as an assessment of whether those policies influenced maize output. A theoretical model of agricultural production is then formulated to reflect cereal production in a developing country setting. This study begins with a review of the general framework and the aims of the structural adjustment programs and proceeds to their application in the maize sector in Kenya and Zambia. A literature review of the supply and demand synthesis of food security is presented with examples from various developing countries. Contrary to previous studies on food security, this study assesses two countries with divergent economic orientations. Agricultural sector response to economic and institutional policies in different settings is also evaluated. Finally, a dynamic time series econometric model is applied to assess the effects of policy on maize output. The empirical findings suggest a weak policy influence on maize output, but the precipitation and acreage variables stand out as core determinants of maize output. The policy dimension of acreage and how markets influence it is not discussed at length in this study. Due to weak land rights and tenure structures in these countries, the direct impact of policy change on land markets cannot be precisely measured. Recurring government intervention during the structural policy implementation period impeded efficient functioning of input and output markets, particularly in Zambia. Input and output prices of maize and fertilizer responded more strongly in Kenya than in Zambia, where the state often ceded to public pressure by revoking pertinent policy measures. These policy interpretations are based on the response of policy variables which are more responsive in Kenya than in Zambia. According the obtained regression results, agricultural markets in general, and the maize sub-sector in particular, responded more positively to implemented policies in Kenya, than in Zambia, which supported a more socialist economic system. It is observed in these results that in order for policies to be effective, sector and regional dimensions need to be considered. The regional and sector dimensions were not taken into account in the formulation and implementation of structural adjustment policies in the 1980s. It can be noted that countries with vibrant economic structures and institutions fared better than those which had a firm, socially founded system.

Microbiological characterisation of soils : Evaluation of some critical steps in data collection and experimental design

The study of soil microbiota and their activities is central to the understanding of many ecosystem processes such as decomposition and nutrient cycling. The collection of microbiological data from soils generally involves several sequential steps of sampling, pretreatment and laboratory measurements. The reliability of results is dependent on reliable methods in every step. The aim of this thesis was to critically evaluate some central methods and procedures used in soil microbiological studies in order to increase our understanding of the factors that affect the measurement results and to provide guidance and new approaches for the design of experiments. The thesis focuses on four major themes: 1) soil microbiological heterogeneity and sampling, 2) storage of soil samples, 3) DNA extraction from soil, and 4) quantification of specific microbial groups by the most-probable-number (MPN) procedure. Soil heterogeneity and sampling are discussed as a single theme because knowledge on spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal variation is crucial when designing sampling procedures. Comparison of adjacent forest, meadow and cropped field plots showed that land use has a strong impact on the degree of horizontal variation of soil enzyme activities and bacterial community structure. However, regardless of the land use, the variation of microbiological characteristics appeared not to have predictable spatial structure at 0.5-10 m. Temporal and soil depth-related patterns were studied in relation to plant growth in cropped soil. The results showed that most enzyme activities and microbial biomass have a clear decreasing trend in the top 40 cm soil profile and a temporal pattern during the growing season. A new procedure for sampling of soil microbiological characteristics based on stratified sampling and pre-characterisation of samples was developed. A practical example demonstrated the potential of the new procedure to reduce the analysis efforts involved in laborious microbiological measurements without loss of precision. The investigation of storage of soil samples revealed that freezing (-20 °C) of small sample aliquots retains the activity of hydrolytic enzymes and the structure of the bacterial community in different soil matrices relatively well whereas air-drying cannot be recommended as a storage method for soil microbiological properties due to large reductions in activity. Freezing below -70 °C was the preferred method of storage for samples with high organic matter content. Comparison of different direct DNA extraction methods showed that the cell lysis treatment has a strong impact on the molecular size of DNA obtained and on the bacterial community structure detected. An improved MPN method for the enumeration of soil naphthalene degraders was introduced as an alternative to more complex MPN protocols or the DNA-based quantification approach. The main advantage of the new method is the simple protocol and the possibility to analyse a large number of samples and replicates simultaneously.