Szisztematikus optimizmus a válság idején = Overoptimism during the financial crises

Számos publikáció bizonyította, hogy az elemzők a tőzsdei vállalatokra készült egy részvényre jutó nyereség- (EPS-earnings per share) előrejelzéseikben szisztematikusabban kedvezőbb tervértéket adnak meg, mint a tényérték. A cikkben az EPS-előrejelzéseket vizsgálta meg a szerző a válság első másfél évében, melyek ezen időszakban is optimistának bizonyultak a vizsgált adatbázison. Az elmúlt húsz évben számos magyarázat látott napvilágot a pénzügyi előrejelzésekben tapasztalható „túltervezésre”. A viselkedéstani magyarázatok jelentős része az elemzők túlzott önbizalmát, jövőbe vetett túlzott optimizmusát jelölték meg okként. Jelen cikk – az empirikus kutatáson túl – nagy hangsúlyt fektet a két fogalom részletes bemutatására, mivel a válság éveit is optimista EPS-előrejelzések jellemezték. _____ There are numerous evidences from the 1980s that analysts give systematically more favorable forecasts for the earnings per share of listed companies than the fact, i.e. they are generally optimistic. In the current article the author investigated the EPS forecasting error in the first two and a half years of the crisis (2008-2010), which was also proved to be an era of the optimistic forecasting error. During the last 20 years reasons of so called “overplanning” have been explained in several ways. Many of these cognitive thinking patterns explanations relied on the phenomenon of overconfidence, and overoptimism without giving detailed description of these concepts. Beside the empirical part of the research current article puts more emphasis on the analysis of these theoretical concepts.

Lessons learned from the effect of tight monetary conditions and crises on corporate capital structure

The study reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of tight monetary conditions, crisis on corporate capital structure, further creates a framework for analyzing their relation, as well as sheds light on the lessons learned and open research areas. The results highlight that the supply side of capital has an effect on corporate capital structure, though the analysis of this relation is scarce. However, the impact of tight monetary conditions on capital structure is analyzed by several studies, there is limited evidence on the financial policy and the development of financing mix during a crisis period. The impact of the 2007/08 crisis on the corporate capital structure and especially in case of firms with impaired access to external financing is scarce. The study also highlights our lack in understanding of the relation of crisis and capital structure in case of the CEE region.

Essays on financial crises

This dissertation analyzes recent financial crises in developed and developing countries. The research emphasizes the effects of institutional factors on the international banking and currency crises and their output losses. ^ Chapter two examines the roles of regulation, supervision, and countries' institutional environment in determining the probability of banking crises for a panel of fifteen developed countries from 1975 to 1998. The results from a multivariate logit model indicated that countries with greater government involvement, less capital standard requirements, and lower lending limits on a single borrower are associated with a higher probability of banking crises. ^ Chapter three studies whether output loss in banking crisis differs in market-based or bank-based financial systems. Using existing banking crisis data for sixty-nine countries during 1970–1999, we investigate whether the underlying financial system affects the output loss. The results show that output losses are more serious in market-based economies than those in bank-based economies. Longer crisis duration tends to increase the output losses in banking crises. Finally, countries with deposit insurance and strict law enforcement have less output losses. ^ Chapter four uses macroeconomic and institutional measures to explain the extent of exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices for emerging countries affected by the Mexican currency crisis of 1994–95. The results show that countries with more government budget deficits, and worse reserve adequacies tend to experience large exchange rate depreciation. The institutional measures do not explain much the extent of both the exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices. ^

Crises do cotidiano em Machado de Assis e Luigi Pirandello: um estudo comparado

This thesis proposes to identify possible similarities and differences between the novels Memórias Póstumas de Brás Cubas (1981), by the Brazilian writer Machado de Assis, and Uno, Nessuno and Centomila (1926), by the Italian writer Luigi Pirandello. The two authors have prominent respective places in Brazilian and Italian literature, and both observed and experienced remarkable changes in their societies Brazil's imperial period, and Italy’s post-risorgimentale period. We will verify how each author composes a piece o literary art in which it is possible to achieve the authors’social and moral conscience. We will also attempt to achieve thefeelings of restlessness, anxiety, fear, doubt, interest, vanity, ambition: in summary, the desire of the characters to exist, which represents man at the end of the nineteenth century and commencement of thetwentieth century. The characters’ features point to fragmented identity, in search of a place in the world, even if he needs to renounce his essence and to adopt a corresponding appearance to all images that society assigns to him in order to achieve such a place. The protagonists, Brás Cubas and Vitangelo Moscarda, will lead us along the paths of consciousness of each, which demarcate the border between essence and appearance. Critics such as Roberto Schwarz, Alfredo Bosi, Leone Castris, among others, will give us the theoretical support necessary for a comparative study between the two authors, whom, like few others, knew how to express, through their characters, the difficult relationship of man with himself and with the universe at large.

System to predict bipolar disorder crises analysing massive data

Durante el desarrollo del proyecto he aprendido sobre Big Data, Android y MongoDB mientras que ayudaba a desarrollar un sistema para la predicción de las crisis del trastorno bipolar mediante el análisis masivo de información de diversas fuentes. En concreto hice una parte teórica sobre bases de datos NoSQL, Streaming Spark y Redes Neuronales y después diseñé y configuré una base de datos MongoDB para el proyecto del trastorno bipolar. También aprendí sobre Android y diseñé y desarrollé una aplicación de móvil en Android para recoger datos para usarlos como entrada en el sistema de predicción de crisis. Una vez terminado el desarrollo de la aplicación también llevé a cabo una evaluación con usuarios.

False Economy : Financialization, Crises and Socio-Economic Polarisation

Peer reviewed

False Economy : Financialization, Crises and Socio-Economic Polarisation

Peer reviewed

Do Social Crises Cause Religious Revivals? What British Church Adherence Rates Show

Funding Some of author A’s research alluded to here was conducted while on a Leverhulme Senior Research Fellowship. Author B’s research is supported by the ESRC Research Centre XXX.

Crises of In/Humanity: Posthumanism, Afrofuturism, and Science and/as Fiction

This thesis engages black critical thought on the human and its contemporary iterations in posthumanism and transhumanism. It articulates five categories of analysis: displace, interrupt, disrupt, expand, and wither. Each is meant to allude to the generative potential in different iterations of black thought that engages the human. Working through Sylvia Wynter’s theories of the rise of Man-as-human in particular, the project highlights how black thought on the human displaces the uncritical whiteness of posthumanist thought. It argues that Afrofuturism has the potential to interrupt the linear progression from human to posthuman and that Octavia Butler’s Fledgling proffers a narrative of race as a technology that disrupts the presumed post-raciality of posthumanism and transhumanism. It then contends that Katherine McKittrick’s rearticulation of the Promise of Science can be extended to incorporate the promise of science fiction. In so doing, it avers that a more curated conversation between McKittrick and Wynter, one already ongoing, and Octavia Butler, through Mind of My Mind from her Patternist series, expands our notions of the human as a category even at the risk of seeing it wither as a politic or praxis. It ends on a speculative note meant to imagine the possibilities within the promise of science fiction.

Introducing Corporate Reputation Continuity to Support Organizational Resilience Against Crises

As Corporate Reputation (CR) evolves into an important asset for organizations, crises and disasters stand as threats to the preservation of the reputation capital since they usually result to negative projections to their audiences and to problematic evaluations by their stakeholders. Viewing CR as the accumulated trust and positive evaluations of the stakeholders, this paper proposes a conceptual and normative framework for Reputation Continuity, which enhances the ability of organizations to preserve their reputation, instead of working for its recovery in the post-crisis period. In our approach, we propose a process of maintaining trusted links, instead of restoring them and establishing a reputation resilient organization, instead of one struggling to recover from reputation losses, after the crisis has emerged. Working closely with stakeholders during the crisis, injecting a sense of normality continuity through effective leadership and mitigating image problems are seen as critical concerns, alongside a set of managerial practices to be followed. Ultimately, it is argued that, the value-based and strategically integrated view of Business Continuity must be enhanced and supported by Reputation Continuity activities.

Near-real-time service provision during effusive crises at Etna and Stromboli: basis and implementation of satellite-based IR operations

Using the NEODAAS-Dundee AVHRR receiving station (Scotland), NEODAAS-Plymouth can provide calibrated brightness temperature data to end users or interim users in near-real time. Between 2000 and 2009 these data were used to undertake volcano hot spot detection, reporting and time-average discharge rate dissemination during effusive crises at Mount Etna and Stromboli (Italy). Data were passed via FTP, within an hour of image generation, to the hot spot detection system maintained at Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, USA). Final product generation and quality control were completed manually at HIGP once a day, so as to provide information to onsite monitoring agencies for their incorporation into daily reporting duties to Italian Civil Protection. We here describe the processing and dissemination chain, which was designed so as to provide timely, useable, quality-controlled and relevant information for ‘one voice’ reporting by the responsible monitoring agencies.

Near-real-time service provision during effusive crises at Etna and Stromboli: basis and implementation of satellite-based IR operations

Using the NEODAAS-Dundee AVHRR receiving station (Scotland), NEODAAS-Plymouth can provide calibrated brightness temperature data to end users or interim users in near-real time. Between 2000 and 2009 these data were used to undertake volcano hot spot detection, reporting and time-average discharge rate dissemination during effusive crises at Mount Etna and Stromboli (Italy). Data were passed via FTP, within an hour of image generation, to the hot spot detection system maintained at Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, USA). Final product generation and quality control were completed manually at HIGP once a day, so as to provide information to onsite monitoring agencies for their incorporation into daily reporting duties to Italian Civil Protection. We here describe the processing and dissemination chain, which was designed so as to provide timely, useable, quality-controlled and relevant information for ‘one voice’ reporting by the responsible monitoring agencies.

Weathering crises on social media – Theory and practices from social media active organizations operating in Finland

Thesis compiles findings from previous research to produce guidelines on addressing crises on social media. These guidelines extracted from previous research are compared qualitatively with empirical evidence from 12 organizations by examining whether organizations apply practices recommended in previous research. Much of guidelines gain support from practitioners with few exceptions. Findings stemming from theory and practice combine to shed light on how controversies are born on social media, how crises can be prevented on social media and how organizations may manage crisis situations on social media. The majority of the resulting guidelines focus on how to address negative information and communicate during a crisis but other means of crisis management are also presented. Previous research had voiced that the field of public relations was very fractured, crisis management was lacking qualitative research and provided very little information on what organizations should do before a crisis. Thesis collects a comprehensive amount of previous research from various fields of PR in an effort to unite findings and guidelines, gathers and analyzes empirical data in a qualitative manner and includes a pre-crisis paradigm. One of the challenges in the field of crisis management still remains the absence of universally agreed definition of a crisis and the lack of means to quantify and compare the magnitude of crises.

Gérer les crises : comment les gouvernements locaux ont-ils réagi à la crise financière de 2008 et comment expliquer les différences ? Le cas des communes suisses

Les communes suisses sont largement souveraines pour financer leurs activités. Leurs ressources proviennent avant tout de l'impôt sur le revenu et de l'impôt foncier prélevés auprès des ménages et des entreprises. Une crise, comme celle de 2008, qui touche la sphère financière et l'économie en général risque d'avoir des répercussions directes sur les budgets locaux. Dans le présent article, nous examinons la manière dont les communes perçoivent ce risque et y réagissent. Dans une enquête menée à l'échelle nationale fin 2009 dans les 2596 communes suisses, nous avons demandé aux secrétaires municipaux quelles mesures avaient été prises face aux pertes fiscales attendues et à la hausse possible des dépenses sociales suite à la crise de 2008. Des mesures keynésiennes ont-elles été prises, en augmentant les dépenses et en acceptant des déficits plus importants, ou y a-t-il eu tentative de limiter les déficits par des mesures d'austérité, notamment en restreignant les investissements prévus ? Nos résultats indiquent que quelques communes seulement (essentiellement les plus grandes) s'attendaient à être durement touchées par la crise. On n'observe cependant pas de tendance systématique et conforme à la théorie. Certes des mesures d'austérité ont été mises en place ou un déficit budgétaire a été provoqué, mais bon nombre de communes ont appliqué simultanément des mesures relevant des deux théories. L'impact perçu de la crise au niveau local et l'appartenance de la commune à la partie francophone du pays sont les principaux facteurs expliquant la réaction des communes et les raisons de cette réaction. La taille de la commune joue aussi un rôle. Mais l'influence du parti social-démocrate est négligeable. Le type de mesures que les communes sont susceptibles de prendre est plus difficile à expliquer. Cependant, plus une commune se sent touchée, plus elle s'orientera vers des mesures d'austérité.

David R. Cole (Hrsg.): Surviving Economic Crises through Education. Global Studies in Education, Vol. 11. New York u.a.: Peter Lang 2011 (267 S.) [Rezension]

Rezension von: David R. Cole (Hrsg.): Surviving Economic Crises through Education. Global Studies in Education, Vol. 11. New York u.a.: Peter Lang 2011 (267 S.; ISBN 978-1433114786)