Análisis del ciclo económico en una economía con rigideces nominales y un amplio sector informal

En este trabajo se construye un modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico (DSGE) con sector informal y rigideces en precios, usando como marco de análisis la teoría de búsqueda y emparejamiento del mercado de trabajo. El objetivo principal es analizar el efecto de los diferentes tipos de choques económicos sobre las principales variables del mercado laboral, en una economía con presencia importante del sector informal. Igualmente se estudia el efecto de la política monetaria, ya que la presencia de este sector afecta la dinámica del ciclo económico, y por ende los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria. En particular, se analiza la dinámica del modelo bajo diferentes reglas de política monetaria y se compara el bienestar agente representativo generado por cada una de estas reglas.

Efectos de la globalización con medidas monetarias como la dolarización sobre los países latinoamericanos. Estudio de caso: Dolarización en el Ecuador

La globalización está generando la adopción de políticas de choque en los países en vía de desarrollo, lo cual podría traer un mayor estancamiento al interior. Analizar los efectos de la dolarización como medidas sobre los países latinoamericanos

Conflict and child labor: evidence from poor households in Colombia

Colombia suffers from one of the longest civil conflicts in the world, which is believed to have had several consequences on the country’s economic and development performance. This study uses measures of central government deterrence effort as instruments of conflict to estimate the impact of conflict on children’s time allocation to two different types of work: housework and work performed outside the household for poor families living in small municipalities in Colombia. I find that conflict significantly increases the amount of time children allocate to work. Both housework, for girls, and work outside the household, for boys, increase with Guerrilla attacks. However, the later effect is the opposite for Paramilitary attacks.

Inserción de Colombia en el mercado de China, hacia un tratado de libre comercio Colombia – China.

El presente trabajo busca evaluar las oportunidades y amenazas que se pueden generar a causa de la creación de un Tratado de Libre Comercio con China, identificando así el impacto que tendrían dichas alianzas sobre el desarrollo económico del país y sobre la competitividad en la región. A partir del análisis de las relaciones comerciales y particularidades de las dos economías, se tendrá en cuenta variables como la reducción del crecimiento económico de China que ha venido experimentando en los últimos años respecto al crecimiento que ha venido ganando poco a poco Colombia. Para ello, se realizó una investigación con base en información relevante de los últimos 5 años, obtenida de diferentes fuentes. Entre estas se destaca el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo (2014- 2018), estadísticas del DANE, portales de análisis económico, entrevistas, revistas indexadas, entre otras. Este compendio de fuentes permitirá evaluar el comportamiento actual de la economía en Colombia y China, así como de las perspectivas económicas de cada país para los próximos años en relación al comercio exterior. Con esto se logrará evaluar la factibilidad, así como las ventajas y desventajas que debería asumir Colombia al firmar un Tratado de Libre Comercio con su segundo socio comercial más importante.

Military empowerment and civilian targeting in civil war

Civilians constitute a large share of casualties in civil wars across the world. They are targeted to create fear and punish allegiance with the enemy. This maximizes collaboration with the perpetrator and strengthens the support network necessary to consolidate control over contested regions. I develop a model of the magnitude and structure of civilian killings in civil wars involving two armed groups who Öght over territorial control. Armies secure compliance through a combination of carrots and sticks. In turn, civilians di§er from each other in their intrinsic preference towards one group. I explore the e§ect of the empowerment of one of the groups in the civilian death toll. There are two e§ects that go in opposite directions. While a direct e§ect makes the powerful group more lethal, there is an indirect e§ect by which the number of civilians who align with that group increases, leaving less enemy supporters to kill. I study the conditions under which there is one dominant e§ect and illustrate the predictions using sub-national longitudinal data for Colombiaís civil war.

On the design of education conditional cash transfer programs and non education outcomes: the case of teenage pregnancy

We investigate the effect of education Conditional Cash Transfer programs (CCTs) on teenage pregnancy. Our main concern is with how the size and sign of the effect may depend on the design of the program. Using a simple model we show that an education CCT that conditions renewal on school performance reduces teenage pregnancy; the program can increase teenage pregnancy if it does not condition on school performance. Then, using an original data base, we estimate the causal impact on teenage pregnancy of two education CCTs implemented in Bogot´a (Subsidio Educativo, SE, and Familias en Acci´on, FA); both programs differ particularly on whether school success is a condition for renewal or not. We show that SE has negative average effect on teenage pregnancy while FA has a null average effect. We also find that SE has either null or no effect for adolescents in all age and grade groups while FA has positive, null or negative effects for adolescents in different age and grade groups. Since SE conditions renewal on school success and FA does not, we can argue that the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of our model and that conditioning renewal of the subsidy on school success crucially determines the effect of the subsidy on teenage pregnancy

School management and sexual behavior of teenagers

This paper asks whether school based management may help reducing risky sexual behavior of teenagers. For this purpose we use student level data from Bogot´a to identify students from Concession School (CS), who are enrolled in public education system with a more school management autonomy at school level, and to compare them with those students at the traditional public education system. We use propensity score matching methods to have a comparable sample between pupils at CS and traditional schools. Our results show that on average the behavior of students from CS do not have a sexual behavior that differs from those in traditional public schools except for boys in CS who have a lower probability of being sexual active. However, there are important differences when heterogeneity is considered. For example we find that CS where girls per boys ratio is higher have lower teenage pregnancy rates than public schools with also high girls per boys ratios. We also find that teachers’ human capital, teacher-pupil ratio or whether school offers sexual education are also related to statistically significant differences between CS and traditional public schools.

Subsidios cruzados en servicios públicos domiciliarios basados en el avalúo catastral

Este artículo presenta una primera propuesta de determinación de subsidios y contribuciones de tarifas de servicios públicos domiciliarios – SPD para la Capital colombiana, que no parta de una clasificación de grupos (estratos socioeconómicos). A partir de un ejercicio exploratorio, se diseña un esquema de pagos del servicio de acueducto a partir del avalúo catastral del inmueble en que habita cada hogar. El ejercicio establece el pago por unidad de consumo de agua, de manera que cada hogar en Bogotá destine una misma proporción de su gasto total al gasto en el servicio de acueducto y garantiza que el total de pagos cubran los costos de provisión del servicio.

Caracterización de las principales cadenas agroalimentarias en Argentina y Brasil

Cada día es mayor la demanda de alimentos a nivel mundial y menor su oferta debido a múltiples razones, por eso que es de gran importancia encontrar las mejores prácticas para que la cadena de suministro de productos alimenticios sea más eficiente y productiva, no sólo con el fin de llegar a la mayor población posible, sino también de mejorar los rendimientos de cada uno de los participantes de la misma. Este proyecto busca analizar las tres principales cadenas agroalimentarias de Argentina y Brasil, con el fin de determinar su desempeño actual, su grado de madurez y su productividad; para lograr esto, primero se va a levantar la información pertinente al tema, luego se identificarán las mejores prácticas en la cadena de suministro para los tres productos más importantes de la canasta básica de ambos países, posteriormente se analizará el desempeño de las agrocadenas y por último se determinará la madurez y productividad de las mismas. La metodología utilizada en este documento se basa principalmente en la búsqueda de información en fuentes gubernamentales y oficiales de cada país para obtener información verídica, confiable y actualizada. Estas fuentes nos aportarán la información que junto con un análisis propio permitirá cumplir los objetivos del proyecto. El resultado de estos datos es de gran importancia, ya que con la investigación realizada se podrán identificar las buenas prácticas para enriquecer el análisis o identificar las malas prácticas y así, proponer modelos que permitan el manejo eficiente de las agrocadenas buscando su desarrollo y perdurabilidad.

Essays on International trade and economic growth

At present, we are witnessing globalization as a truly worldwide phenomenon. Trade agreements among differing countries, a reduction in trade costs, the mobility of production factors, the free flow of information and so on are all proof of the present day era of globalization. Countries are trading with one another more and more every day and the effects of international trade on economies represent a central discussion in all economic spheres. In spite of increasing trade around the world and the promotion of globalization by multilateral organisms such as WTO and IMF, the effects of international trade are not yet clear. Economics literature concerning the effects of international trade on economic growth and welfare remains ambiguous in terms of both theoretical models and empirical research. The present thesis tries to contribute to the theoretical debate surrounding the effects of dynamic international trade, focusing in particular on the implications for economic growth, welfare and changes in the preferences of individuals.

Leadership and performance in multicultural business environments a qualitative study in German-Colombian teams

Multicultural leadership is a topic a great interest in nowadays globalized work environment. Colombia emerges as an attractive marketplace with appealing business opportunities, especially for German enterprises. After presenting Colombia’s current political, social and economic situation, the thesis elaborates the complex subject of cultural differences while focusing on the peculiarities of German and Colombian national cultures. The resulting implications for a team’s collaboration and leader effectiveness are theoretically supported with reference to the landmark studies of Hofstede and GLOBE. By utilizing semi-structured interview techniques, a qualitative research enriches the previous findings and gives an all-encompassing insight in German-Colombian teamwork. The investigation identifies distinctive behavioral patterns and relations, which imply challenges and factors of success for multicultural team leaders. Finally, a categorical analysis examines the influence of cultural traits on team performance and evaluates the effectiveness of the applied leadership style.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

Natural resources, redistribution and Human capital formation

How do resource booms affect human capital accumulation? We exploit time and spatial variation generated by the commodity boom across local governments in Peru to measure the effect of natural resources on human capital formation. We explore the effect of both mining production and tax revenues on test scores, finding a substantial and statistically significant effect for the latter. Transfers to local governments from mining tax revenues are linked to an increase in math test scores of around 0.23 standard deviations. We find that the hiring of permanent teachers as well as the increases in parental employment and improvements in health outcomes of adults and children are plausible mechanisms for such large effect on learning. These findings suggest that redistributive policies could facilitate the accumulation of human capital in resource abundant developing countries as a way to avoid the natural resources curse.