Salon keskusta-alueen tulvasuojelu : Tulvasuojelutoimenpiteiden mitoitus ja arviointi

Uskelanjoki virtaa Salon kaupungin läpi ja varsinkin jääpato tulvatilanteissa tulvavedenkorkeudet uhkaavat nousta maa-alueille. Tässä työssä tutkittiin valittujen tulvasuojelutoimenpiteiden vaikutuksia tulvavedenkorkeuksiin Uskelanjoessa sekä Salon kaupungin keskusta-alueella. Tavoitteena oli löytää Uskelanjoen tulvimisen ehkäisyyn kustannustehokas ratkaisu. Työssä mallinnettiin Uskelanjoen vedenkorkeuksia yksidimensionaalisesti käyttäen HEC-RAS -mallia. Mallinnus suoritettiin mitoitustulvalla tulvasuojelutoimenpiteille, jotka olivat jäidenpidätysrakennelmien rakentaminen, ruoppaus, pengerrys sekä näiden vaihtoehtojen yhdistelmät. Mallinnuksesta saatujen tulvavedenkorkeuksien avulla laadittiin tarkastellulta uomaosuudelta tulvavaarakartat sekä tulvavahinkoarviot. Näiden tietojen pohjalta voitiin vaihtoehtojen hyötyjä vertailla käyttämällä kustannus-hyötyanalyysia. Kustannus-hyötyanalyysin tuloksista havaittiin, että jäidenpidätysrakennelmat osoittautuivat parhaaksi tulvasuojeluvaihtoehdoksi Uskelanjoessa. Muutkin työssä tutkitut vaihtoehdot osoittautuivat kannattaviksi. Epävarmuuden kumuloituminen vedenkorkeuksien mallinnuksesta hyötyjen ja haittojen arviointiin luo oman epävarmuutensa tässä työssä laskettuihin arvoihin. Tätä epävarmuutta on tutkittu työssä käyttämällä herkkyysanalyysia. Herkkyysanalyysin tuloksia tarkastelemalla jäidenpidätysrakennelmien rakentaminen osoittautui kaikkein riskivapaimmaksi vaihtoehdoksi Uskelanjoen tulvasuojelussa.

Methodology for wind turbine blade geometry optimization

Nowadays, the upwind three bladed horizontal axis wind turbine is the leading player on the market. It has been found to be the best industrial compromise in the range of different turbine constructions. The current wind industry innovation is conducted in the development of individual turbine components. The blade constitutes 20-25% of the overall turbine budget. Its optimal operation in particular local economic and wind conditions is worth investigating. The blade geometry, namely the chord, twist and airfoil type distributions along the span, responds to the output measures of the blade performance. Therefore, the optimal wind blade geometry can improve the overall turbine performance. The objectives of the dissertation are focused on the development of a methodology and specific tool for the investigation of possible existing wind blade geometry adjustments. The novelty of the methodology presented in the thesis is the multiobjective perspective on wind blade geometry optimization, particularly taking simultaneously into account the local wind conditions and the issue of aerodynamic noise emissions. The presented optimization objective approach has not been investigated previously for the implementation in wind blade design. The possibilities to use different theories for the analysis and search procedures are investigated and sufficient arguments derived for the usage of proposed theories. The tool is used for the test optimization of a particular wind turbine blade. The sensitivity analysis shows the dependence of the outputs on the provided inputs, as well as its relative and absolute divergences and instabilities. The pros and cons of the proposed technique are seen from the practical implementation, which is documented in the results, analysis and conclusion sections.

Profitability planning of the ski resort project

Objective of this master’s thesis is to create an investment calculation model, which makes it possible to determine if the ski resort business can be profitable. The ultimate goal is to create a description with the help of theoretical knowledge, interviews and investment calculation model, how the operation of ski resort is possible to be profitable and what are the critical success factors for achieving this goal. Thesis is carried out as qualitative research, which is supported by the necessary constructive information utilizing calculations. The client company has provided valuable insights and material for this thesis. Theoretical report examines the steps of developing a business plan, investment components and methods as well as sensitivity analysis. The theoretical part is based on the articles, textbooks, interviews and researches. The empirical part of the thesis is assembled by benchmarking other same size Finnish ski resorts, conducting interviews and using investment calculation model. The empirical part provides comprehensive information about ski resort industry, the future of the project, the business plan and the profitability calculations. As the result of this thesis the investment calculation model, which makes it possible to simulate different scenarios for ski resort project, was formed. The model was used to create a picture in which kind of scenario the ski resort business would be profitable and what are the critical success factors in achieving this aim.

Modeling light interception and distribution in mixed canopy of common cocklebur (Xanthium stramarium) in competition with corn

The aim of this study was to model light interception and distribution in the mixed canopy of Common cocklebur (Xanthium stramarium) with corn. An experiment was conducted in factorial arrangement on the basis of randomized complete blocks design with three replications in Gonabad in 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 seasons. The factors used in this experiment include corn density of 7.5, 8.5 and 9.5 plants per meter of row and density of Common cocklebur of zero, 2, 4, 6 and 8 plants per meter of row. INTERCOM model was used through replacing parabolic function with triangular function of leaf area density. Vertical distribution of the species' leaf area showed that corn has concentrated the most leaf area in layer of 80 to 100 cm while Common cocklebur has concentrated in 35-50 cm of canopy height. Model sensitivity analysis showed that leaf area index, species' height, height where maximum leaf area is seen (hm), and extinction coefficient have influence on light interception rate of any species. In both species, the distribution density of leaf area at the canopy length fit a triangular function, and the height in which maximum leaf area was observed was changed by change in density. There was a correlation between percentage of the radiation absorbed by the weed and percentage of corn seed yield loss (r² = 0.89). Ideal type of corn was determined until the stage of tasseling in competition with weed. This determination indicates that the corn needs more height and leaf area, as well as less extinction coefficient to successfully fight against the weed.

Power to Gas - sähköenergiasta luonnonkaasua, liiketoimintamahdollisuudet Suomessa

Uusiutuvan sähköntuotannon osuuden kasvaessa kasvaa tarve tasata sähköntuotannon ja kulutuksen vaihteluita varastoimalla sähköä. Power to Gas (PtG) - sähköenergiasta luonnonkaasua tarjoaa yhden mahdollisuuden varastoida sähköä. Sähköä käytetään veden elektrolyysiin, jossa syntynyt vety käytetään metanoinissa yhdessä hiilidioksidin kanssa muodostamaan korvaavaa luonnonkaasua. Näin syntynyttä korvaava luonnonkaasua sähköstä kutsutaan e-SNG-kaasuksi. Tässä työssä tutkitaan PtG-laitoksen investointi, käyttö- ja kunnossapitokuluja. Työssä luodaan laskentamalli, jolla lasketaan PtG-laitoksen neljälle käyttötapaukselle kannattavuuslaskelma. Käyttötapauksille lasketaan myös herkkyystarkasteluja. Kannattavuuslaskelmien perusteella päätellään PtG-laitoksen liiketoimintamahdollisuudet Suomessa. Työssä laskettujen kannattavuuslaskelmien perusteella PtG-laitoksen perustapausten liiketoimintamahdollisuudet ovat huonot. Laskettujen herkkyystarkastelujen perusteella havaittiin, että investointikulut, laitoksen ajoaika ja lisätulot hapesta ja lämmöstä ovat kannattavuuden kannalta kriittisimmät menestystekijät.

Yritysten väliset erot liikearvon arvonalentumistestauksen raportoinnissa

Tämän pro gradu -tutkielman tavoitteena oli tutkia, minkälaisia eroja suomalaisten listayhtiöiden välillä on liikearvon arvonalentumistestausta koskevassa raportoinnissa. Huomiota kiinnitettiin erityisesti arvonalentumistestissä käytettyjen menetelmien ja oletusten eroihin, sekä siihen, heijastuvatko taloudelliset tekijät arvonalentumistestauksen tilinpäätösraportointiin. Teoriaperusta muodostettiin aihepiirin kansainvälisten laskentasäännösten ja aiempien tieteellisten julkaisujen avulla. Tutkimusmenetelmä oli laadullinen ja empiirisenä aineistona käytettiin 20:n teknologia- ja kulutuspalveluiden toimialoilla toimivan yrityksen tilinpäätöksiä. Tutkimustulosten mukaan yritykset eivät raportoi liikearvoon liittyviä asioita yhdenmukaisesti, vaan vaihtelua liittyy niin käytettyihin taustaoletuksiin kuin ylipäätään raportoinnin avoimuuteen. Arvonalentumistestauksen raportointiin liittyvän herkkyysanalyysin katsottiin kuitenkin heijastavan yritysten aiempien tilikausien tai raportointikauden taloudellista menestystä.

Aurinkosähkön kannattavuustarkastelu jäähallilla

Tässä kandidaatintyössä selvitetään aurinkosähkön kannattavuutta jäähallissa. Tutkimuksessa huomioidaan paikallisten olosuhteiden kuten auringon säteilynmäärän, lämpötilan ja paneelien asennussuunnan vaikutus tuotetun aurinkosähkön määrään. Tuotannon soveltuvuutta arvioidaan vertaamalla simuloituja aurinkosähkön tuotantolukemia jäähallin sähkönkulutusprofiiliin. Sähkönkulutustiedot perustuvat etäluettavan sähkömittarin tunnittaisiin mittaustuloksiin. Investoinnin kannattavuutta arvioidaan yleisesti käytettyjen tunnuslukujen valossa, jotka lasketaan yksityiskohtaisen tarkastelun avulla. Lisäksi tunnuslukuja analysoidaan herkkyysanalyysiin avulla.

Susteinable steelmaking by process integration

Environmental issues, including global warming, have been serious challenges realized worldwide, and they have become particularly important for the iron and steel manufacturers during the last decades. Many sites has been shut down in developed countries due to environmental regulation and pollution prevention while a large number of production plants have been established in developing countries which has changed the economy of this business. Sustainable development is a concept, which today affects economic growth, environmental protection, and social progress in setting up the basis for future ecosystem. A sustainable headway may attempt to preserve natural resources, recycle and reuse materials, prevent pollution, enhance yield and increase profitability. To achieve these objectives numerous alternatives should be examined in the sustainable process design. Conventional engineering work cannot address all of these substitutes effectively and efficiently to find an optimal route of processing. A systematic framework is needed as a tool to guide designers to make decisions based on overall concepts of the system, identifying the key bottlenecks and opportunities, which lead to an optimal design and operation of the systems. Since the 1980s, researchers have made big efforts to develop tools for what today is referred to as Process Integration. Advanced mathematics has been used in simulation models to evaluate various available alternatives considering physical, economic and environmental constraints. Improvements on feed material and operation, competitive energy market, environmental restrictions and the role of Nordic steelworks as energy supplier (electricity and district heat) make a great motivation behind integration among industries toward more sustainable operation, which could increase the overall energy efficiency and decrease environmental impacts. In this study, through different steps a model is developed for primary steelmaking, with the Finnish steel sector as a reference, to evaluate future operation concepts of a steelmaking site regarding sustainability. The research started by potential study on increasing energy efficiency and carbon dioxide reduction due to integration of steelworks with chemical plants for possible utilization of available off-gases in the system as chemical products. These off-gases from blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace and coke oven furnace are mainly contained of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, nitrogen and partially methane (in coke oven gas) and have proportionally low heating value but are currently used as fuel within these industries. Nonlinear optimization technique is used to assess integration with methanol plant under novel blast furnace technologies and (partially) substitution of coal with other reducing agents and fuels such as heavy oil, natural gas and biomass in the system. Technical aspect of integration and its effect on blast furnace operation regardless of capital expenditure of new operational units are studied to evaluate feasibility of the idea behind the research. Later on the concept of polygeneration system added and a superstructure generated with alternative routes for off-gases pretreatment and further utilization on a polygeneration system producing electricity, district heat and methanol. (Vacuum) pressure swing adsorption, membrane technology and chemical absorption for gas separation; partial oxidation, carbon dioxide and steam methane reforming for methane gasification; gas and liquid phase methanol synthesis are the main alternative process units considered in the superstructure. Due to high degree of integration in process synthesis, and optimization techniques, equation oriented modeling is chosen as an alternative and effective strategy to previous sequential modelling for process analysis to investigate suggested superstructure. A mixed integer nonlinear programming is developed to study behavior of the integrated system under different economic and environmental scenarios. Net present value and specific carbon dioxide emission is taken to compare economic and environmental aspects of integrated system respectively for different fuel systems, alternative blast furnace reductants, implementation of new blast furnace technologies, and carbon dioxide emission penalties. Sensitivity analysis, carbon distribution and the effect of external seasonal energy demand is investigated with different optimization techniques. This tool can provide useful information concerning techno-environmental and economic aspects for decision-making and estimate optimal operational condition of current and future primary steelmaking under alternative scenarios. The results of the work have demonstrated that it is possible in the future to develop steelmaking towards more sustainable operation.

Kaukolämpöakun kannattavuus yhdistetyssä sähkön- ja lämmöntuotannossa

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli tutkia Etelä-Savon Energialle soveltuvan kaukolämpöakun käyttömahdollisuuksia, optimaalista kokoa, sopivinta prosessikytkentää ja investoinnin kannattavuutta. Teoriaosassa käsitellään kirjallisuuden perusteella lämmönvarastoinnin teoriaa sekä investoinninkannattavuuslaskentaa. Soveltavassa osassa määritetään testivuoden sekä lyhytaikaissimuloinnin avulla yritykselle parhaiten sopiva akun tilavuus, kytkentä sekä investoinnin kannattavuus. Teorian ja kannattavuuslaskennan perusteella parhaaksi vaihtoehdoksi valittiin paineistamaton kaukolämpöakku, jonka vesitilavuus on 7 000 m3 ja lataus- ja purkuteho 30 MW. Investoinnin sisäiseksi korkokannaksi saatiin 19,6 %. Investointilaskennan ja herkkyystarkastelun perusteella kaukolämpöakku on kannattava.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

How frequently should a patient taking amiodarone be screened for thyroid dysfunction?

Amiodarone-induced thyroid dysfunction (AITD) is a common complication of amiodarone therapy and its prevalence varies according to iodine intake, subclinical thyroid disorders and the definition of AITD. There is no consensus about the frequency of screening for this condition. We evaluated 121 patients on chronic regular intake of amiodarone (mean intake = 248.5 ± 89 mg; duration of treatment = 5.3 ± 3.9 years, range = 0.57-17 years) and with stable baseline cardiac condition. Those with no AITD were followed up for a median period of 3.2 years (range: 0.6-6.7) and the incidence rate of AITD, defined by clinical and laboratorial findings as proposed by international guidelines, was obtained (62.8 per 1000 patients/year). We applied the Cox proportional hazard model to adjust for potential confounding factors and used sensitivity analysis to identify the best screening time for follow-up. We detected thyroid dysfunction in 59 (48.7%) of the 121 patients, amiodarone-induced hypothyroidism in 50 (41.3%) and hyperthyroidism in 9 (7.5%). Compared with patients without AITD, there was no difference regarding dosage or duration of therapy, heart rhythm disorder or baseline cardiac condition. During the follow-up of the 62 patients without AITD at baseline evaluation, 11 developed AITD (interquartile range, IR: 62.8 (95%CI: 31.3-112.3) cases per 1000 patients/year), 9 of them with hypothyroidism - IR: 11.4 (95%CI: 1.38-41.2), and 2 hyperthyroidism - IR: 51.3 (95%CI: 23.4-97.5). Age, gender, dose, and duration of treatment were not significant after adjustment. During the first 6 months of follow-up the incidence rate for AITD was 39.3 (9.2-61.9) cases per 1000 patients/year. These data show that AITD is quite common, and support the need for screening at 6-month intervals, unless clinical follow-up dictates otherwise or further information regarding the prognosis of untreated subclinical AITD is available.

Carbon footprint of recycled paper

Industrial production of pulp and paper is an intensive consumer of energy, natural resources, and chemicals that result in a big carbon footprint of the final product. At present companies and industries aspire to calculate their gas emissions into the atmosphere in order to afterwards reduce atmospheric contamination. One of the approaches allowing to increase carbon burden from the pulp and paper manufacture is paper recycling. The general purpose of the current paper is to establish methods of quantifying and minimizing the carbon footprint of paper. The first target of this research is to derive a mathematical relationship between virgin fibre requirements with respect to the amount of recycled paper used in the pulp. One more purpose is to establish a model to be used to clarify the contribution of recycling and transportation to decreasing carbon dioxide emissions. For this study sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the robustness of obtained results. The results of the present study show that an increasing of recycling rate does not always lead to minimizing the carbon footprint. Additionally, we derived that transportation of waste paper throughout distances longer than 5800 km has no sense because the use of that paper will only increase carbon dioxide emissions and it is better to reject recycling at all. Finally, we designed the model for organization of a new supply chain of paper product to a customer. The models were implemented as reusable MATLAB frameworks.

Carbon pricing and its effect on company profitability

In order to reach the 2°C climate target, the carbon price should rise significantly in order for it to be financially rewarding for companies to reduce their emissions. This research aims to find how a significant increase in the carbon price would affect the profitability of companies. Prior research has not found consensus on how regulatory policies affect companies. This research looks at profitability factors of carbon pricing through a mix of related issues such as the carbon risk, carbon pricing mechanisms and cost pass-through of additional costs. The research is quantitative and examines financial data and emissions data regarding scope 1 and scope 2 emissions on 328 European companies. The data analysis method utilised is a sensitivity analysis conducted as a scenario analysis. Different price increases and cost pass-through rates are tested to see how company profitability is affected. As the companies are distributed between 9 sectors and 53 industries, the results vary. The industries that are found to be affected by an increase in carbon pricing show drastic negative changes in profitability. The results complement prior research identifying the most carbon-intensive industries, but also provide some new insights on industries that may be affected by carbon pricing. Industries related to manufacturing, electricity and energy are partly significantly impacted, but also industries related to tourism and food show potential signs of impact when an increased carbon price is introduced.

Analytical modelling of bacterial migration and accumulation with rate-limited sorption in discrete fractures

An analytical model for bacterial accumulation in a discrete fractllre has been developed. The transport and accumlllation processes incorporate into the model include advection, dispersion, rate-limited adsorption, rate-limited desorption, irreversible adsorption, attachment, detachment, growth and first order decay botl1 in sorbed and aqueous phases. An analytical solution in Laplace space is derived and nlln1erically inverted. The model is implemented in the code BIOFRAC vvhich is written in Fortran 99. The model is derived for two phases, Phase I, where adsorption-desorption are dominant, and Phase II, where attachment-detachment are dominant. Phase I ends yvhen enollgh bacteria to fully cover the substratllm have accllillulated. The model for Phase I vvas verified by comparing to the Ogata-Banks solution and the model for Phase II was verified by comparing to a nonHomogenous version of the Ogata-Banks solution. After verification, a sensitiv"ity analysis on the inpllt parameters was performed. The sensitivity analysis was condllcted by varying one inpllt parameter vvhile all others were fixed and observing the impact on the shape of the clirve describing bacterial concentration verSllS time. Increasing fracture apertllre allovvs more transport and thus more accllffilliation, "Vvhich diminishes the dllration of Phase I. The larger the bacteria size, the faster the sllbstratum will be covered. Increasing adsorption rate, was observed to increase the dllration of Phase I. Contrary to the aSSllmption ofllniform biofilm thickness, the accllffilliation starts frOll1 the inlet, and the bacterial concentration in aqlleous phase moving towards the olitiet declines, sloyving the accumulation at the outlet. Increasing the desorption rate, redllces the dliration of Phase I, speeding IIp the accllmlilation. It was also observed that Phase II is of longer duration than Phase I. Increasing the attachment rate lengthens the accliffililation period. High rates of detachment speeds up the transport. The grovvth and decay rates have no significant effect on transport, althollgh increases the concentrations in both aqueous and sorbed phases are observed. Irreversible adsorption can stop accllillulation completely if the vallIes are high.

Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.