Efficient fully nonlinear data assimilation for geophysical fluid dynamics

A potential problem with Ensemble Kalman Filter is the implicit Gaussian assumption at analysis times. Here we explore the performance of a recently proposed fully nonlinear particle filter on a high-dimensional but simplified ocean model, in which the Gaussian assumption is not made. The model simulates the evolution of the vorticity field in time, described by the barotropic vorticity equation, in a highly nonlinear flow regime. While common knowledge is that particle filters are inefficient and need large numbers of model runs to avoid degeneracy, the newly developed particle filter needs only of the order of 10-100 particles on large scale problems. The crucial new ingredient is that the proposal density cannot only be used to ensure all particles end up in high-probability regions of state space as defined by the observations, but also to ensure that most of the particles have similar weights. Using identical twin experiments we found that the ensemble mean follows the truth reliably, and the difference from the truth is captured by the ensemble spread. A rank histogram is used to show that the truth run is indistinguishable from any of the particles, showing statistical consistency of the method.

Estimating Lorenz's reference state in an ocean with a nonlinear equation of state for seawater

The study of the mechanical energy budget of the oceans using Lorenz available potential energy (APE) theory is based on knowledge of the adiabatically re-arranged Lorenz reference state of minimum potential energy. The compressible and nonlinear character of the equation of state for seawater has been thought to cause the reference state to be ill-defined, casting doubt on the usefulness of APE theory for investigating ocean energetics under realistic conditions. Using a method based on the volume frequency distribution of parcels as a function of temperature and salinity in the context of the seawater Boussinesq approximation, which we illustrate using climatological data, we show that compressibility effects are in fact minor. The reference state can be regarded as a well defined one-dimensional function of depth, which forms a surface in temperature, salinity and density space between the surface and the bottom of the ocean. For a very small proportion of water masses, this surface can be multivalued and water parcels can have up to two statically stable levels in the reference density profile, of which the shallowest is energetically more accessible. Classifying parcels from the surface to the bottom gives a different reference density profile than classifying in the opposite direction. However, this difference is negligible. We show that the reference state obtained by standard sorting methods is equivalent, though computationally more expensive, to the volume frequency distribution approach. The approach we present can be applied systematically and in a computationally efficient manner to investigate the APE budget of the ocean circulation using models or climatological data.

A simple method for integrating a complex model into an ensemble data assimilation system using MPI

This paper details a strategy for modifying the source code of a complex model so that the model may be used in a data assimilation context, {and gives the standards for implementing a data assimilation code to use such a model}. The strategy relies on keeping the model separate from any data assimilation code, and coupling the two through the use of Message Passing Interface (MPI) {functionality}. This strategy limits the changes necessary to the model and as such is rapid to program, at the expense of ultimate performance. The implementation technique is applied in different models with state dimension up to $2.7 \times 10^8$. The overheads added by using this implementation strategy in a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model are shown to be an order of magnitude smaller than the addition of correlated stochastic random errors necessary for some nonlinear data assimilation techniques.

An Ensemble Kalman Smoother for Nonlinear Dynamics

It is for mally proved that the general smoother for nonlinear dynamics can be for mulated as a sequential method, that is, obser vations can be assimilated sequentially during a for ward integration. The general filter can be derived from the smoother and it is shown that the general smoother and filter solutions at the final time become identical, as is expected from linear theor y. Then, a new smoother algorithm based on ensemble statistics is presented and examined in an example with the Lorenz equations. The new smoother can be computed as a sequential algorithm using only for ward-in-time model integrations. It bears a strong resemblance with the ensemble Kalman filter . The difference is that ever y time a new dataset is available during the for ward integration, an analysis is computed for all previous times up to this time. Thus, the first guess for the smoother is the ensemble Kalman filter solution, and the smoother estimate provides an improvement of this, as one would expect a smoother to do. The method is demonstrated in this paper in an intercomparison with the ensemble Kalman filter and the ensemble smoother introduced by van Leeuwen and Evensen, and it is shown to be superior in an application with the Lorenz equations. Finally , a discussion is given regarding the properties of the analysis schemes when strongly non-Gaussian distributions are used. It is shown that in these cases more sophisticated analysis schemes based on Bayesian statistics must be used.

A joint state and parameter estimation scheme for nonlinear dynamical systems

We present a novel algorithm for concurrent model state and parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical systems. The new scheme uses ideas from three dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF) together with the technique of state augmentation to estimate uncertain model parameters alongside the model state variables in a sequential filtering system. The method is relatively simple to implement and computationally inexpensive to run for large systems with relatively few parameters. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method via a series of identical twin experiments with three simple dynamical system models. The scheme is able to recover the parameter values to a good level of accuracy, even when observational data are noisy. We expect this new technique to be easily transferable to much larger models.

A genome-wide test of the differential susceptibility hypothesis reveals a genetic predictor of differential response to psychological treatments for child anxiety disorders

Background: The differential susceptibly hypothesis suggests that certain genetic variants moderate the effects of both negative and positive environments on mental health and may therefore be important predictors of response to psychological treatments. Nevertheless, the identification of such variants has so far been limited to preselected candidate genes. In this study we extended the differential susceptibility hypothesis from a candidate gene to a genome-wide approach to test whether a polygenic score of environmental sensitivity predicted response to Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) in children with anxiety disorders. Methods: We identified variants associated with environmental sensitivity using a novel method in which within-pair variability in emotional problems in 1026 monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs was examined as a function of the pairs’ genotype. We created a polygenic score of environmental sensitivity based on the whole-genome findings and tested the score as a moderator of parenting on emotional problems in 1,406 children and response to individual, group and brief parent-led CBT in 973 children with anxiety disorders. Results: The polygenic score significantly moderated the effects of parenting on emotional problems and the effects of treatment. Individuals with a high score responded significantly better to individual CBT than group CBT or brief parent-led CBT (remission rates: 70.9%, 55.5% and 41.6% respectively). Conclusions: Pending successful replication, our results should be considered exploratory. Nevertheless, if replicated, they suggest that individuals with the greatest environmental sensitivity may be more likely to develop emotional problems in adverse environments, but also benefit more from the most intensive types of treatment.

Paleointensity data from Early Cretaceous Ponta Grossa dikes (Brazil) using a multisample method

Definition of the long-term variation of the geomagnetic virtual dipole moment requires more reliable paleointensity results. Here, we applied a multisample protocol to the study of the 130.5 Ma Ponta Grossa basaltic dikes (southern Brazil) that carry a very stable dual-polarity magnetic component. The magnetic stability of the samples wits checked using thermomagnetic curves and by monitoring the magnetic Susceptibility evolution through the paleointensity experiments. Twelve sites containing the least alterable samples were chosen for the paleointensity measurements. Although these rocks failed stepwise double-heating experiments, they yielded coherent results in the multisample method for all sites but one. The coherent sites show low to moderate field intensities between 5.7 +/- 0.2 and 26.4 +/- 0.7 mu T (average 13.4 +/- 1.9 mu T). Virtual dipole moments for these sites range from 1.3 +/- 0.04 to 6.0 +/- 0.2 x 10(22) A m(2) (average 2.9 +/- 0.5 x 10(22) A m(2)). Our results agree with the tendency for low dipole moments during the Early Cretaceous, immediately prior to the Cretaceous Normal Superchron (CNS). The available paleointensity database shows a strong variability of the field between 80 and 160 Ma. There seems to be no firm evidence for a Mesozoic Dipole Low, but a long-term tendency does emerge from the data with the highest dipole moments Occurring at the middle of the CNS.

The Diffusion Kernel Filter

A particle filter method is presented for the discrete-time filtering problem with nonlinear ItA ` stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODE) with additive noise supposed to be analytically integrable as a function of the underlying vector-Wiener process and time. The Diffusion Kernel Filter is arrived at by a parametrization of small noise-driven state fluctuations within branches of prediction and a local use of this parametrization in the Bootstrap Filter. The method applies for small noise and short prediction steps. With explicit numerical integrators, the operations count in the Diffusion Kernel Filter is shown to be smaller than in the Bootstrap Filter whenever the initial state for the prediction step has sufficiently few moments. The established parametrization is a dual-formula for the analysis of sensitivity to gaussian-initial perturbations and the analysis of sensitivity to noise-perturbations, in deterministic models, showing in particular how the stability of a deterministic dynamics is modeled by noise on short times and how the diffusion matrix of an SODE should be modeled (i.e. defined) for a gaussian-initial deterministic problem to be cast into an SODE problem. From it, a novel definition of prediction may be proposed that coincides with the deterministic path within the branch of prediction whose information entropy at the end of the prediction step is closest to the average information entropy over all branches. Tests are made with the Lorenz-63 equations, showing good results both for the filter and the definition of prediction.

Monotone positive solutions for a fourth order equation with nonlinear boundary conditions

This work is concerned with the existence of monotone positive solutions for a class of beam equations with nonlinear boundary conditions. The results are obtained by using the monotone iteration method and they extend early works on beams with null boundary conditions. Numerical simulations are also presented. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduced gradient method combined with augmented Lagrangian and barrier for the optimal power flow problem

A new approach for solving the optimal power flow (OPF) problem is established by combining the reduced gradient method and the augmented Lagrangian method with barriers and exploring specific characteristics of the relations between the variables of the OPF problem. Computer simulations on IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 30-bus test systems illustrate the method. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A discontinuous-Galerkin-based immersed boundary method with non-homogeneous boundary conditions and its application to elasticity

We propose a discontinuous-Galerkin-based immersed boundary method for elasticity problems. The resulting numerical scheme does not require boundary fitting meshes and avoids boundary locking by switching the elements intersected by the boundary to a discontinuous Galerkin approximation. Special emphasis is placed on the construction of a method that retains an optimal convergence rate in the presence of non-homogeneous essential and natural boundary conditions. The role of each one of the approximations introduced is illustrated by analyzing an analog problem in one spatial dimension. Finally, extensive two- and three-dimensional numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear elasticity problems verify that the proposed method leads to optimal convergence rates under combinations of essential and natural boundary conditions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exact penalties for variational inequalities with applications to nonlinear complementarity problems

In this paper, we present a new reformulation of the KKT system associated to a variational inequality as a semismooth equation. The reformulation is derived from the concept of differentiable exact penalties for nonlinear programming. The best theoretical results are presented for nonlinear complementarity problems, where simple, verifiable, conditions ensure that the penalty is exact. We close the paper with some preliminary computational tests on the use of a semismooth Newton method to solve the equation derived from the new reformulation. We also compare its performance with the Newton method applied to classical reformulations based on the Fischer-Burmeister function and on the minimum. The new reformulation combines the best features of the classical ones, being as easy to solve as the reformulation that uses the Fischer-Burmeister function while requiring as few Newton steps as the one that is based on the minimum.

Global minimization using an Augmented Lagrangian method with variable lower-level constraints

A novel global optimization method based on an Augmented Lagrangian framework is introduced for continuous constrained nonlinear optimization problems. At each outer iteration k the method requires the epsilon(k)-global minimization of the Augmented Lagrangian with simple constraints, where epsilon(k) -> epsilon. Global convergence to an epsilon-global minimizer of the original problem is proved. The subproblems are solved using the alpha BB method. Numerical experiments are presented.

Outer Trust-Region Method for Constrained Optimization

Given an algorithm A for solving some mathematical problem based on the iterative solution of simpler subproblems, an outer trust-region (OTR) modification of A is the result of adding a trust-region constraint to each subproblem. The trust-region size is adaptively updated according to the behavior of crucial variables. The new subproblems should not be more complex than the original ones, and the convergence properties of the OTR algorithm should be the same as those of Algorithm A. In the present work, the OTR approach is exploited in connection with the ""greediness phenomenon"" of nonlinear programming. Convergence results for an OTR version of an augmented Lagrangian method for nonconvex constrained optimization are proved, and numerical experiments are presented.

Structured minimal-memory inexact quasi-Newton method and secant preconditioners for augmented Lagrangian optimization

Augmented Lagrangian methods for large-scale optimization usually require efficient algorithms for minimization with box constraints. On the other hand, active-set box-constraint methods employ unconstrained optimization algorithms for minimization inside the faces of the box. Several approaches may be employed for computing internal search directions in the large-scale case. In this paper a minimal-memory quasi-Newton approach with secant preconditioners is proposed, taking into account the structure of Augmented Lagrangians that come from the popular Powell-Hestenes-Rockafellar scheme. A combined algorithm, that uses the quasi-Newton formula or a truncated-Newton procedure, depending on the presence of active constraints in the penalty-Lagrangian function, is also suggested. Numerical experiments using the Cute collection are presented.