Cape Verde’s foreign policy: an economic perspective

The virtuous cycle between development success and foreign policy in Cape Verde reflects a positive interaction between globalization and governance. Development success under globalization entails positive market perceptions regarding the orientation and predictability of policies as well as the accompanying institutional arrangements, thereby making foreign policy salient beyond the comparator group, or “aspirational”. Even if there is no universally applicable development model, an aspirational foreign policy can be built on positive rankings with respect to comparator groups. In Macedo and Pereira (2010), macrolevel policy and institutional combinations underpinning trade diversification and income convergence in West and Southern Africa are used to establish development success for Cape Verde and Mozambique respectively. Here, the narrative of long-term development helps identify the following drivers: moving towards a market economy; opening up to regional and global trade; increasing economic and political freedom; pursuing macroeconomic stability and financial reputation; ensuring policy continuity (especially in trade and industrial sectors) and focusing on human development (especially poverty reduction and education). Looking at GDP per capita and indicators of financial reputation and good governance of sub-regional peers is not sufficient to conclude that Cape Verde’s convergence will be sustained. Nevertheless, the positive interaction between trade and financial globalization, on the one hand, and democracy and good governance, on the other, have positive implications for the effectiveness of foreign policy across the region as well as in the Portuguese-speaking community.

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Individual and aggregate money demands

I construct a model in which money and bond holdings are consistent with individual decisions and aggregate variables such as production and interest rates. The agents are infinitely-lived, have constant-elasticity preferences, and receive a fraction of their income in money. Each agent solves a Baumol-Tobin money management problem. Markets are segmented because financial frictions make agents trade bonds for money at different times. Trading frequency, consumption, government decisions and prices are mutually consistent. An increase in inflation, for example, implies higher trading frequency, more bonds sold to account for seigniorage, and lower real balances.

Aumento das taxas moderadoras nas urgências hospitalares : que impacto sobre a procura?

RESUMO - Objetivo: Quantificar a variação da procura ocorrida no Serviço de Urgência Hospitalar (SUH) de um hospital na zona de Lisboa face ao aumento de preço da taxa moderadora da urgência em janeiro de 2012. Metodologia: O presente trabalho recorre à análise de micro dados sobre a utilização do Serviço de Urgência do Hospital Garcia de Orta (HGO) em dois períodos: 1 de janeiro de 2011 a 30 de junho de 2011 e 1 de janeiro de 2012 a 30 de junho de 2012. A amostra é constituída por 156.654 idas ao SUH do HGO. Aferiu-se ainda a elasticidade da procura face ao preço por sexo, escalão etário, proveniência, local e causa da admissão e destino dos utentes. Resultados: Existiram 80.344 episódios de urgência em 2011 e 76.310 em 2012 (-5%).Em relação aos utentes não isentos, houve uma redução de 12% no total de episódios de urgência (26.168 em 2011 e 23.037 em 2012). O preço da urgência aumentou 108% para os indivíduos não isentos (€9,6 para €20). Os valores obtidos para a elasticidade da procura face ao preço são próximos de zero para o total da procura bem como para as restantes variáveis. Conclusões: Conclui-se que a procura de cuidados de urgência é inelástica face ao aumento do preço no hospital analisado. Embora se tenha verificado uma redução dos cuidados procurados (12%), esta foi muito inferior ao aumento ocorrido no preço (108%).

Growth and unemployment: understanding Okun's law for Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Auto industry bailout: too big to fail. To big for whom?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Determinants of the Portuguese government bond yield spread

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Credit cycle identification: A Markov-switching application

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Opening Pousada da Serra da Estrela in Covilhã: A two-way impact analysis - interacting with private agents

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Management of Costa Vicentina as tourism destination for foreign surf practitioner and beginners

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Macroeconomic impacts of politics and policy: Applications to financial and real markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Health expenditures in the OECD: A political economy analysis using structural breaks

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Evaluation and optimization of a session-based middleware for data management

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Clearing the cloudy crystal balls: Hybrid modelling for energy and climate change mitigation scenarios – A case study for Portugal

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente

Characterization tests for insulation boards made from corn cob and natural glues

In recent years there has been a growing interest in developing news solutions for more ecologic and efficient construction, including natural, renewable and local materials, thus contributing in the search for more efficient, economic and environmentally friendly construction. Several authors have assessed the possibility of using various agricultural sub products or wastes, as part of the effort of the scientific community to find alternative and more ecologic construction materials. Corn cob is an agricultural waste from a very important worldwide crop. Natural glues are made from natural materials, non-mineral, that can be used as such or after some modifications to achieve the behaviour and performance required. Two examples of these natural glues are casein and wheat flour-based glues that were used in the present study. Boards with different compositions were manufactured, having as variables the type of glue, the dimension of the corn cob particles and the features of the pressing process. The tests boards were characterized with physical and mechanical tests, such as thermal conductivity (λ) with a ISOMET 2104 and 60 mm diameter contact probe, density (ρ) based on EN 1602:2013, surface hardness (SH) with a PCE Shore A durometer, surface resistance (SR) with a PROCEQ PT pendular sclerometer, bending behaviour (σ) based on EN 12089:2013, compression behaviour (σ10) based on EN 826:2013 and resilience (R) based on EN 1094-1:2008, with a Zwick Rowell bending equipment with 2 kN and 50 kN load cells (Fig. 1), dynamic modulus of elasticity (Ed) with a Zeus Resonance Meter equipment (Fig. 5) based on NP EN 14146:2006 and water vapour permeability (δ) based on EN 12086:2013. The various boards produced were characterized according to the tests and the ones with the best results were C8_c8 (casein glue, grain size 2,38-4,76 mm, cold pressing for 8 hours), C8_c4 (casein glue, grain size 2,38-4,76 mm, cold pressing for 4 hours), F8_h0.5 (wheat flour glue, grain size 2,38-4,76 mm, hot pressing for 0,5 hours), FEV8_h0.5 (wheat flour, egg white and vinegar glue, grain size 2,38-4,76 mm, hot pressing for 0,5 hours) and FEVH68_c4 (wheat flour, egg white, vinegar and 6 g of sodium hydroxide glue, grain size 2,38-4,76 mm, cold pressing for 4 hours). Taking into account the various boards produced and respective test results the type of glue and the pressure and pressing time are very important factors which strongly influence the final product. The results obtained confirmed the initial hypotheses that these boards have potential as a thermal and, eventually, acoustic insulation material, to use as coating or intermediate layer on walls, floors or false ceilings. This type of board has a high mechanical resistance when compared with traditional insulating materials.The integrity of these boards seems to be maintained even in higher humidity environments. However, due to biological susceptibility and sensitivity to water, they would be more adequate for application in dry interior conditions.