Determinants of the Portuguese government bond yield spread

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

This paper seeks to find out the determinants of the 10 year Portuguese government bond yield spread for the period between the January of 2010 and December of 2012. Fundamental factors (debt ratio and government balance in % of GDP) and contagion effects are the main drivers behind the surge of the yield spread during the first two years of the sample. Liquidity risk (measured by the bid-ask spread) and the size of the banking system are also significant determinants. These same factors however, have no significance in explaining the drop in the yield spread during the final seven months of the sample.