Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Medidas de risco extraídas de opções sobre petróleo

Bali, Cakici e Chabi-Yo (2011) introduziram uma nova medida de risco, englobando as medidas de risco de Aumann e Serrano (2008) e Foster e Hart (2009). Trata-se de um modelo de medida de risco implícito de opções baseado na distribuição neutra ao risco dos retornos de ativos financeiros. Este trabalho se propõe a calcular a medida de risco de Bali, Cakici e Chabi-Yo (2011) com base nas opções de petróleo, a commodity mais importante da economia mundial. Como os preços das opções incorporam a expectativa do mercado, a medida de risco calculada é considerada forward-looking. Desta forma, esse trabalho também analisa a significância dessa medida em prever a atividade econômica futura. Os resultados indicaram poder preditivo em relação ao índice VIX, o qual representa a incerteza do mercado financeiro, e ao índice CFNAI, indicador da atividade econômica norte-americana.

Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social

Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

The first contribution of this paper is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). The second contribution, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), is to propose and test a myriad of inter-polation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. The third contribution is to illustrate, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Ensaios em economia política aplicada

Esta tese é constituída por três capítulos que se enquadram na área de Microeconomia Aplicada, sendo dois deles de Economia Política Aplicada e o outro de Economia da Educação. O primeiro capítulo investiga se a eleição de mulheres para a prefeitura impacta a inserção de outras mulheres no mercado político, reduzindo-se assim uma preferência pré-estabelecida pelos eleitores de não votar em mulheres. Para realizar o exercício, utiliza-se um experimento de Regressão em Descontinuidade onde explora-se eleições em que uma mulher perdeu ou ganhou por uma margem pequena de votos para um candidato homem, a ponto do gênero eleito ser aleatório. Os resultados mostram que a eleição de uma mulher tem impacto apenas em ambientes mais propícios a eleger mulheres (o que foi mensurado aqui pelo percentual de vereadoras eleitas) ou em locais onde os candidatos tinham maior qualidade (medido pela escolaridade). O segundo artigo estima o impacto da divulgação da qualidade escolar sobre a migração dos alunos entre escolas. A ideia é que ao tornar-se público o sinal de qualidade, escolas e alunos têm incentivos para se adaptarem conforme sua demanda por qualidade. Para isso, explora-se um desenho de Regressão em Descontinuidade Fuzzy devido a um dos critérios de divulgação do IDEB ser a escola ter no mínimo 20 alunos matriculados na série avaliada. Os resultados mostram que as escolas que tiveram IDEB divulgado tiveram maior migração de alunos e, em especial, de alunos em condições de vulnerabilidade. O terceiro artigo avalia a hipótese de exogeneidade da abertura comercial brasileira, promovida no final da década de 1980 e início da de 1990. Há uma vasta literatura que explora os efeitos da abertura comercial sobre o mercado de trabalho, desigualdade de renda, pobreza e crescimento econômico. Tais trabalhos consideram o processo de liberalização brasileiro como não correlacionado com as demandas de nenhum setor de atividade econômica específico, o que justificaria utilizar o período de abertura como um instrumento para lidar com endogeneidade nas estimações. Nós apresentamos evidência de que, embora não correlacionado com nenhum setor em especial, a abertura estava correlacionada com a distribuição de capital político dos governos nesse período, e pode ter funcionado como uma estratégica clara de fortalecimento político ou, pelo menos, teve o contexto político como um facilitador do processo.

A transição para a assimetria regulatória e os mecanismos de sustentabilidade deste modelo: uma análise dos aeroportos concedidos e dos aeroportos autorizados

O presente estudo destina-se à análise do modelo de assimetria regulatória, a partir de dois problemas pontuais, quais sejam: os mecanismos necessários para se obter um ambiente assimétrico, bem como a maneira pela qual se deve orquestrar tal modelo, de forma a compatibilizar uma convivência sustentável em uma estrutura híbrida de competição. Observar-se-á a maneira pela qual pode ser promovida a alteração de um ambiente de simetria regulatória para um ambiente de assimetria, resguardando os direitos e obrigações dos prestadores de determinada atividade, inseridos naquela seara. Ademais, buscar-se-á sugerir instrumentos legais para se permitir a composição de dois meios de exploração de determinada atividade econômica, um que se dê segundo o direito público (publicatio); e outro, que se relacione com o direito privado (ordenatio); compreendendo assim, a dita assimetria regulatória. A título ilustrativo, adentrar-se-á na verificação da medida provisória (MP) 656/14 - a qual previa um possível modelo em que se teria duas ofertas de infraestrutura aeroportuária - para melhor exemplificar como, juridicamente, pode-se viabilizar esta disposição de prestação dual, via poder público (ou delegatários), segundo a forma de concessão; e iniciativa privada, segundo a forma de autorização.

Impactos sociais da atividade turística: um estudo de caso em Tibau do Sul/RN

This study has been presented for the Master in business of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, the objectives are evaluate the social impacts of the tourism in the community of Tibau do Sul in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. The research is a study of case and the analysis is qualitative and quantitative. The tourism is considerate for many people as an important source of richness, job and an important economic activity. However, for being an activity that involves as main element people, It can cause impacts, could these are beneficial or malign. To evaluate the community's perception about these impacts, it was applied a questionnaire returned to the perceptions of them about the next social indicators: health, job, security, education and life quality. Considering the advent of the tourist activity in a period fifteen year. Through the research could conclude that, of general form the population realizes the changes occurred in the municipal district of positive way. Except for some indicators that receive negative evaluation

O city marketing em Natal/RN e a construção da imagem da cidade

The growing importance of tourism in overall economic activity worldwide has favored the intensification of competition among cities that seek to create environments attractive to tourists and potential investors. It has been common practice to import characteristics of the business environment in the public management of cities. The city marketing is a key tool used by public leaders to promote a linkage between the tourism image and urban image and involves, in addition to promoting the image of the city, the planning of interventions in urban space, trying to formulate a positive image of the city able to facilitate the deployment of capital. This research seeks to understand the nature of city marketing as part of contemporary urban management and analyzes how is its application in decisions concerning the promotion of tourism in Natal/RN. The approach of this research is qualitative, exploratory and descriptive, in which respondents were the main leaders of two of the official tourism site, the Empresa Potiguar de Promoção Turística and the Secretaria Municipal de Turismo e Desenvolvimento Econômico. It was found that there is a strong articulation of public power with private enterprise in the design and conduct of the actions of urban marketing, that from the survey data show that the behavior of target markets provide guidelines for taking strategic decisions relating to tourism. Sun and sea are some key elements explored to form the image of Natal and to authorize the sale of the city as a tropical paradise. However, there is an increase in the diversification of tourism products, seeking to increase flow to the segments of ecotourism, adventure, business and culture. It s also growing the use of local culture as a tourism product, however, the cultural representation focuses on superficial values and does not bring to light the social and historical richness that the city has. Public authorities use the city marketing strategies as a means able to maximize the attractiveness of Natal urban space to investors, business groups and tourists. It can be observed that urban managers seek solutions that can continuously increase the tours, which often manifests in interventions that focus the tourist areas of the city, in oposition of those who do not contribute to a positive reading of the city, which ultimately generate the worsening of spacial and social inequalities

O terciário (re) desenhando a periferia: a região administrativa norte de Natal/RN, na última década do século XX, servicializada na Av. Dr. João Medeiros Filho

The tertiary sector has been (re)defining and (re)qualifying, in an impacting way, the urban spaces in the cities, introducing new elements for the discussion of the relationship center/periphery. In Natal, as an inducing economic activity of its development, it conforms to the new needs of the capital, expanding, being materialized through several processes and spatial forms. We aim at analyzing one of those processes, which has taken its Northern Administrative Area to (re)define the design of its urban space, through the actions developed by the agents involved with the spatialization of the tertiary activities, at the same time as it redimensions its role as a periphery of Natal, contributing to the study of the recent and growing transformations of the Brazilian capitals. The studied district corresponds to 39.4% of the municipal area and, until recently, was composed by precarious reproduction spaces, unprovided of relevant economical activities. After the boom of the development of extensive housing complexes by SFH/BNH, the area, gradually stopped being a dependent area, and it imposed itself as an economically participant region, with the increase of the trade and services sectors, as well as a favorable place for the appearance of new activities. Its reflexes are noticeable in the achieved spatial configuration. As the main road to induct changes, Dr. João Medeiros Filho Avenue presents these new tendencies in the production of the intraurban space, concentrating the largest goods and services equipments of the area, through investments of the private and public sectors, which guarantee the capital allocation for the construction of a new centrality

Diagnóstico da possível influência da atividade petrolífera em sedimentos de fundo da Bacia Piranhas-Açu, região Baixo Açu/RN

It is located in an area of increasing oil exploration, the region of the Lower Açu is at the mercy of a possible pollution generated by this economic activity, which includes various chemical substances harmful to health, such as metals. This thesis aims to, diagnose the areas of River Piranhas-Açu, a region of the Lower Açu, which are polluted by traces factors and more. In this study, it was determined the concentration of the chemica elements Al, CD, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, P, Pb, V and Zn, through the technique of ICP-OES analysis and the size of sediments and their contents organic matter. Were mapped by GPS, 12 points from collections. The interpretations of the results, together associating that allowed pollution to a possible contamination by oil activity. The results showed tha some regions have low concentrations of cadmium, lead, copper, manganese and zinc unable to promote damage to human health. However, there are places where the concentrations of certain metals chromium, iron and zinc are moderately polluted compared to the results with the reference values of literature and others that are highly polluted by iron. However, due to a greater number of wells in production in those locations, those higher concentrations, it can be suggested a possible influence of oi production in some areas with concentrations of chromium and lead are higher than the rest of the points of monitoring. Moreover, it is observed that the highest levels of metals found in sediment of finer texture and more organic matter content

Atributos de qualidade de solos sob dois diferentes tipos de manejo no município de Ibiúna/SP, Brazil

Agricultural activity has direct consequences on the soil and water quality. Thus, assessing environmental impacts of this vital economic activity, through soil attribute analysis, is essential to the proposal of alternatives. The aim of this study was to analyze soil quality under different land management practices, conventional and organic. The study was carried out in a watershed of the Ibiuna municipality, SP, Brazil, an important supplier of agricultural products for the São Paulo metropolitan area. A hundred samples were collected, 20 in each type of land use: reforested areas, native vegetation, pasture, conventional cultivation and organic cultivation. The soil resistance to penetration, its pH (in water and KO), electrical conductivity, bulk density, particle density, porosity, soil color, soil texture and the percentages of carbon and nitrogen were analyzed. The data were statistically analyzed, searching for significant differences. The results of soil analysis showed great similarity between the organic and conventional culture, with no statistical differences. However, organic cultivation showed greater similarity to the soil of native vegetation in the percentage of carbon and nitrogen in soils compared to conventional culture. Thus, the discussion begins on a topic very little explored so far, and the results obtained should be further studied.

A corretagem de imóveis no Rio Grande do Norte: das práticas históricas à emergência como segmento integrante da fração imobiliária do capital

This research proposed to question the development of what was defined as historical practices (commercial, social and political institutions), of the economic activity of the real estate brokerage in the Rio Grande do Norte from the progressive institutionalization of economic agents - individuals (realtors) and legal (real estate) - based on two main approaches: a) the development of economic activity as an integral segment of a fraction of capital (POULANTZAs, 1985; LESSA, 1981). This work set out from a socio-historical approach of the historical practices development the of real estate brokerage in Brazil started in the Southeast, especially in the cities of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo as a result of the "expansion of capitalist relations by the housing sector" (RIBEIRO , 1996). especially the real estate capital ; b) the historical development of relations between labor and capital within the activity, in other words, the development of the relationship between realtors and Real Estate in relation to "group of interests" and their "collective actions" (OFFE, 1984). These historical practices are defined in this research as: 1) mercantile practices, times when there was no distinction between the activity of real estate brokerage and other forms of mercantile capital; 2) social practices, which began in the 1930s, when agents of real estate are to be distinguished from each other within the activity through Taylorist division of labor between workers realtors and developers of real estate; 3) political and institutional practices, initiated in 1962, characterized by State action, in the individualization and distinction of the agents of real estate brokerage as socioprofessional category regulated throughout Brazil by Law 4.116/62 and 6.530/78. The results achieved by the present study showed that in Rio Grande do Norte, due to the specifics as to the peripheral processes of urbanization of the constitution of the land market, as well as the process of conservative modernization of the oligarchic State from the 1960s (CLEMENTINE, 1995; FERREIRA, 1996, 2010, TRINDADE, 2004), the State was led to the development of a late manifestation of the historical practices of real estate brokerage. In other words, it was a process in which historical practices, in particular social practices, not fully developed, mitigating, thus the perception of realtors from his position in the process of exploitation of labor by the Real Estate. And, as a result, of their collective interests front of them.

Histórias e relatos sobre Pipa: a praia internacional do Rio Grande do Norte

The overwhelming gear that boosted tourism as the main economic activity of Pipa a district formerly agricultural and fishery, that belongs to the municipality of Tibau do Sul/RN produced significant changes in the social, economic and cultural rights of the native population of the place where social relations were narrow and justified in some cases, the line of kinship in an environment where all residents knew each other. However, we can not observe the emergence of this activity just as voracious disarticulator of old local forms of sociability that in a linear process, destroys the old, replacing it with the new. New compositions are generated by merging elements of past and present. Overcoming opposition to simplistic positive or negative impacts of tourism sought especially in this dissertation, review the history of Pipa (told in narrative form), showing how slowly this district has become a major international tourist destination and how its residents were being swallowed by the "whirlwind" that led to this reality. The research used qualitative methodology and was based on photographic, literature and survey, observation, experience, oral and written reports acquired in the field. We conducted in-depth interviews (oral history) with subjects that are the living memory of the place local residents (mostly natives). We found that before the process of "modernization" resulting from the pressure of globalization itself and the capital investment in tourism resulting from the native population is not passive. On the contrary, natives resist, creating mechanisms of material and symbolic reformulations. The present moment is always dynamic. Because of that, the identity of a place is not the crystallization of its past. Many landscapes still reveal materialities of yesteryear, such as registration of social practices in the construction of the place

O dumping ambiental no setor sucroalcooleiro à luz do princípio da livre concorrência

The goal of this study is to investigate about the existence or absence of environmental dumping in the production of fuel ethanol in Brazil, as well as identifying the reasons why the figure of ecological dumping is pernicious to the principles enumerated in constitutional economic order, in particular the principle of free competition. In the twenty-first century environmental issues gained momentum and importance in these terms, which was seen as a mere fallacy given the concern of governments of various countries, after all, environmental protection shows up as the only means of bringing about the maintenance of life at planet. Indeed, it is essential to halt the drastic effects of climate change, and think fast and efficient solutions. Undoubtedly, the contemporary requirements that resulted in the transition to a new economy brings with it the duty of enterprise search for sustainability, and this behavior can not be passive, otherwise it is imperative to work hard and incessant economic agents, even if initially costs are high, this step will ensure a production accountable, transparent and free from accusations of environmental degradation. It is also intended to study the importance of the sector not only as a source of economic growth, but mainly, its contribution to national development, without forgetting that this is devoted in the Constitution of 1988 as one of the objectives of the Federative Republic of Brazil. In fact, the criticism most common perceptions about the production of biofuels, said the interests of the countries producing them in large scale, will eventually generate a exhaustion of soil and a significant increase in food prices. However, the ethanol produced in Brazil is unique in that it is produced from cane sugar, a product is not intended for human or animal, not to mention that the recovery of land just to the rotation with the planting other cultures. It is expected that environmental certifications are useful to demonstrate the quality of ethanol for export and to refute unfounded criticism. Finally, this study will be analyzed further solutions for the plants to develop an economic activity without damaging the environment and in compliance with Brazilian law

A tutela constitucional da exploração de petróleo em águas internacionais em face do princípio do desenvolvimento sustentável: a possibilidade de responsabilização civil do dano futuro

The demands brought by a society doomed to the constant production of global risks, which whose effects are not immediately noticed effects are not perceived immediately, claim from the Law a new Theory about the Risk, that would offer a broad environmental protection, at the same time it would still be compatible with the idea of economic efficiency, required by the Modern Industry. The expansion of the methods and technologies regarding the exploitation and production of oil causes the constant expansion of the exploitable boundaries, especially in ultra-deep waters with the Pre-salt layer, in Brazil, or the still incipient research about the polymetallic nodules and other mineral sources in international waters, like the Atlântico Sudoeste, by the Programme on Ocean Science in Relation do Non Living Resources (OSNLR), a global study performed in partnership with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, from UNESCO (IOC UNESCO) and also with the Division of Ocean Affairs and Law of the Sea (UNDOALOS). Thus, we aim to analyze the correlation, and possible collisions between the right to a balanced environment and the free exercise of economic activity and the occurrence of environmental damages from the perspective of the exploitation activities of oil and other natural resources in international waters, specifically in the Area, from the constitutional principle of sustainable development and its legitimacy by the environmental international protection. Therefore, this study also aims to evaluate the legal framework for exploration and production of oil in international waters, particularly in the Area, and appraise how the constitutional instruments and mechanisms for environmental protection can impact on the international environmental protection system in order to ensure the present and future generations an ecologically balanced environment, laid down in Article 225 of the Brazilian Constitution, even with so many risks posed by the activities of exploitation and production of oil in international waters. In the meantime, we intend to also intend to investigate the possibility of future liability for environmental damage in order to ensure that constitutional principle and, consequently, and try to define the concept of environmental damage and its implications on the constitutional principle of environmental protection. Given all that was in summary, this work aims to contribute to the evolution of the new Theory of Environmental Risk, turning the law into something more than a punitive or corrective element in this society, but into a legal risk management, that may be triggered even before the consolidation of the damage