Time Varying Dimension Models

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications.

Introduced freshwater blenny influences the diet and body condition of the invasive dice snake in Lake Geneva

Non-indigenous species can have strong impacts on biodiversity by affecting trophic relationships in their new environments. The piscivorous dice snake (Natrix tessellata) has been introduced to Geneva Lake, western Switzerland, where the endangered viperine snake (Natrix maura) is native. Local, dramatic declines in the viperine snake population might be associated with the appearance of the dice snake through dietary overlap between these 2 species, which mainly feed on bullhead (Cottus gobio). In response to this decline, a control program for dice snake was implemented in 2007 to reduce numbers of this introduced snake. In 2010, a new species of fish, the freshwater blenny (Salaria fluviatilis), which shares the same habitat as the bullhead, was introduced into Lake Geneva and has since reached high densities. We determined the impact of freshwater blenny on diet composition and body condition of dice snakes. In addition, we tested for effects of the control program on the body condition of dice snakes and viperine snakes. We collected 294 dice snakes between 2007 and 2013. Based on morphology and a genetic marker (cytochrome b gene), we determined the ®sh species contained in these snakes' stomachs. We found a drastic switch in dice snake diet following the arrival of freshwater blenny, as consumption of bullhead declined by 68% and was replaced by the blenny. In addition, the body condition of dice snakes increased significantly after the arrival of freshwater blenny. The body condition of both snake species was positively correlated with the number of dice snakes removed from the study area. This finding has important implications concerning the conservation of the endangered viperine snake, and suggests that the control program of dice snakes should be continued.

Switching between apparently redundant iron-uptake mechanisms benefits bacteria in changeable environments.

Bacteria often possess multiple siderophore-based iron uptake systems for scavenging this vital resource from their environment. However, some siderophores seem redundant, because they have limited iron-binding efficiency and are seldom expressed under iron limitation. Here, we investigate the conundrum of why selection does not eliminate this apparent redundancy. We focus on Pseudomonas aeruginosa, a bacterium that can produce two siderophores-the highly efficient but metabolically expensive pyoverdine, and the inefficient but metabolically cheap pyochelin. We found that the bacteria possess molecular mechanisms to phenotypically switch from mainly producing pyoverdine under severe iron limitation to mainly producing pyochelin when iron is only moderately limited. We further show that strains exclusively producing pyochelin grew significantly better than strains exclusively producing pyoverdine under moderate iron limitation, whereas the inverse was seen under severe iron limitation. This suggests that pyochelin is not redundant, but that switching between siderophore strategies might be beneficial to trade off efficiencies versus costs of siderophores. Indeed, simulations parameterized from our data confirmed that strains retaining the capacity to switch between siderophores significantly outcompeted strains defective for one or the other siderophore under fluctuating iron availabilities. Finally, we discuss how siderophore switching can be viewed as a form of collective decision-making, whereby a coordinated shift in behaviour at the group level emerges as a result of positive and negative feedback loops operating among individuals at the local scale.

The Commons and anti-commons problems in the tourism economy

Countries specialised in tourism tend to face two problems with contradictory effects: the commons and the anti-commons, which lead to tourism over- and under-production, respectively. This paper develops a two-period model to analyse the joint effects of both problems on a small and remote tourism economy. Congestion and the complementariness between foreign transport and local tourism services are key features in this type of markets. As a result, direct selling and the presence of foreign tour-operators emerge as possible market arrangements with different implications in terms of welfare and public intervention. Four main results are obtained. First, in the direct selling situation the optimal policy depends on the relative importance of the problems. Second, the existence of tour-operators always leads to tourism over-production. Third, the presence of a single tour-operator does not solve the congestion problem. Lastly, the switch from several tour-operators to a single one is welfare reducing.

Sociogenomics of Cooperation and Conflict during Colony Founding in the Fire Ant Solenopsis invicta.

One of the fundamental questions in biology is how cooperative and altruistic behaviors evolved. The majority of studies seeking to identify the genes regulating these behaviors have been performed in systems where behavioral and physiological differences are relatively fixed, such as in the honey bee. During colony founding in the monogyne (one queen per colony) social form of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta, newly-mated queens may start new colonies either individually (haplometrosis) or in groups (pleometrosis). However, only one queen (the "winner") in pleometrotic associations survives and takes the lead of the young colony while the others (the "losers") are executed. Thus, colony founding in fire ants provides an excellent system in which to examine the genes underpinning cooperative behavior and how the social environment shapes the expression of these genes. We developed a new whole genome microarray platform for S. invicta to characterize the gene expression patterns associated with colony founding behavior. First, we compared haplometrotic queens, pleometrotic winners and pleometrotic losers. Second, we manipulated pleometrotic couples in order to switch or maintain the social ranks of the two cofoundresses. Haplometrotic and pleometrotic queens differed in the expression of genes involved in stress response, aging, immunity, reproduction and lipid biosynthesis. Smaller sets of genes were differentially expressed between winners and losers. In the second experiment, switching social rank had a much greater impact on gene expression patterns than the initial/final rank. Expression differences for several candidate genes involved in key biological processes were confirmed using qRT-PCR. Our findings indicate that, in S. invicta, social environment plays a major role in the determination of the patterns of gene expression, while the queen's physiological state is secondary. These results highlight the powerful influence of social environment on regulation of the genomic state, physiology and ultimately, social behavior of animals.

High magnification cystoscopy in the primary diagnosis of bladder tumors.

Purpose of reviewIn bladder cancer, discrimination between benign and malignant tissue may remain tricky with current endoscopic tools. On the basis of our recent experience with high-magnification cystoscopy, compared with other tools such as optical coherence tomography or confocal laser endomicroscopy, it is suggested here that this discrimination may well be feasible endoscopically. The clinical potential of these systems that are being developed as complementary tools to the current endoscopic equipment is reviewed.Recent findingsAt present, white-light cystoscopy, either assisted by fluorescence cystoscopy or narrow-band imaging, is proposed for the global cystoscopic examination of bladder cancer patients. Both techniques compete to help to reduce the recurrence rate by improving exophytic tumor detection, and the extent of carcinoma in situ and high-grade dysplasia. All of which are important prognosis factors for disease progression. In addition, recent findings on neoangiogenesis that accompanies early stage bladder cancer show that this may also be an important observable switch in bladder cancerogenesis, as it is found very early in tumor development. The high magnification cystoscopy as a complementary tool to fluorescence cystoscopy allows classification of the vessel patterns on fluorescence positive sites, and thus facilitates the discrimination between cancerous and noncancerous lesions. This information may be useful to reduce the false positive rate of fluorescence cystoscopy.SummaryEmerging technologies aiming at a real-time in-situ discrimination between benign and malignant tissue during endoscopic bladder exploration is a promising development for the monitoring of bladder cancer patients.

Decision analysis for the genotype designation in low-template-DNA profiles

What genotype should the scientist specify for conducting a database search to try to find the source of a low-template-DNA (lt-DNA) trace? When the scientist answers this question, he or she makes a decision. Here, we approach this decision problem from a normative point of view by defining a decision-theoretic framework for answering this question for one locus. This framework combines the probability distribution describing the uncertainty over the trace's donor's possible genotypes with a loss function describing the scientist's preferences concerning false exclusions and false inclusions that may result from the database search. According to this approach, the scientist should choose the genotype designation that minimizes the expected loss. To illustrate the results produced by this approach, we apply it to two hypothetical cases: (1) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on a single electropherogram, and (2) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on one replicate, and a pair of peaks for alleles xi and xj, i ≠ j, on a second replicate. Given that the probabilities of allele drop-out are defined as functions of the observed peak heights, the threshold values marking the turning points when the scientist should switch from one designation to another are derived in terms of the observed peak heights. For each case, sensitivity analyses show the impact of the model's parameters on these threshold values. The results support the conclusion that the procedure should not focus on a single threshold value for making this decision for all alleles, all loci and in all laboratories.

Evaluation of oral versus intravenous dose of vinorelbine to achieve equivalent blood exposures in patients with solid tumours.

Patient's preference is for oral chemotherapy when both oral and i.v. are available, provided that efficacy is equivalent. Reliable switch from oral to i.v. is possible if correspondence between respective doses has been established. Vinorelbine oral was developed as a line extension of VRL i.v. on the basis that similar AUCs result in similar activities. From a first crossover study on 24 patients receiving VRL 25 mg/m2 i.v. and 80 mg/m2 oral data extrapolation concluded on AUCs bioequivalence between Vinorelbine 30 mg/m2 i.v. and 80 mg/m2 oral. A new trial was performed to support this calculation. In a crossover design study on patients (PS 0-1) with advanced solid tumours (44% breast carcinoma), VRL was administered (30 mg/m2 i.v., 80 mg/m2 oral) with a standard meal and 5-HT3 antagonists, at 2 weeks interval. Pharmacokinetics was performed over 168 h and VRL was measured by LC-MS/MS. Statistics included bioequivalence tests. Forty-eight patients were evaluable for PK: median age 58 years (25-71), PS0/PS1: 20/28, M/F: 11/37. Mean AUCs were 1,230 +/- 290 and 1,216 +/- 521 ng/ml for i.v. and oral, respectively. The confidence interval of the AUC ratio (0.83-1.03) was within the required regulatory range (0.8-1.25) and proved the bioequivalence between the two doses. The absolute bioavailability was 37.8 +/- 16.0%, and close to the value from the first study (40%). Patient tolerability was globally comparable between both forms with no significant difference on either haematological or non-haematological toxicities (grade 3-4). This new study, conducted on a larger population, confirmed the reliable dose correspondence previously established between vinorelbine 80 mg/m2 oral and 30 mg/m2 i.v.

Anti-TNF Therapy in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease G8 Cohort

Background: A nti-TNF d rugs (Infliximab (IFX), Adalimumab (ADA), Certolizumab pegol (CZP)) are effective in inducing and maintaining response a nd remission in i nflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Insufficient response or side effects may lead to a switch o f the anti-TNF d rug. W e aimed to e valuate the frequency and reasons for anti-TNF switches. Methods: Analysis of data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort (SIBDCS). Eighty percent of included patients were recruited in hospitals and 20% from private practice. Results: From 2,058 patients ( 1,172 with Crohn's disease (CD), 842 with ulcerative colitis (UC) and 44 with indeterminate colitis (IC)), 772 received at least one anti-TNF. Forty-eight % of patients w ith CD, 23% with U C, a nd 30% with IC w ere ever treated with an anti-TNF drug. There was no gender difference with respect to the frequency of a nti-TNF treatment. A total of 584 patients (76%) were treated with one, 142 (18%) with two, and 46 (6%) with three anti-TNF (of which 32 were female). A total of 89% patients were treated with IFX, 28% ADA and 13% with CZP. Overall response rate (defined as drop in CDAI >100 points) to anti-TNF was 50%, with best response rates for the first used anti-TNF. Reasons t o switch t he anti-TNF w ere in 11% a primary non-response, in 38% a loss of response and in 36% anti-TNF s ide effects o r intolerance ( reasons for 15% of treatment failures not documented). Conclusion: A nti-TNF d rugs were used in h alf of the CD patients a nd in o ne quarter of U C patients. Anti-TNF d rug switch d ue to insufficient response a nd/or side effects w as necessary in one quarter of IBD patients. IFX was mainly used as first-line therapy. Best response rates were observed for the first used anti-TNF. Following analyses will identify risk median treatment duration as well as risk factors for anti-TNF switch.

Anàlisi de l'obra cinematogràfica de quatre documentalistes russos o de repúbliques ex-soviètiques : la relació amb les noves tendències del documental i el llegat soviètic

El treball de recerca té com a principal objectiu l'estudi del cinema documental rus contemporani a través de l'obra cinematogràfica d'Alexander Sokurov, Sergei Dvortsevoi, Sergei Loznitsa i Victor Kossakovski. En un primer moment la investigació s'havia encaminat en un estudi comparatiu sobre les noves tendències del documental i els models de realisme proposats des de la Rússia post-comunista. El treball s'ha realitzat a partir de tres vies d'investigació. La primera ha consistit en una exhaustiva recerca bibliogràfica sobre cinema documental i cinema soviètic. La segona s'ha plantejat a partir d'un anàlisi acurat de les diverses pel•lícules. Finalment, la tercera via s'ha desenvolupat a partir d'un treball de camp realitzat durant una estada a Rússia, un període en el qual va ser possible entrevistar dos dels cineastes protagonistes de l'estudi, Sergei Dvortsevoi i Victor Kossakovski, així com el crític de cinema Andrei Xemijakin. També va ser fonamental l'assistència a la taula rodona i la master class impartida per Sergei Loznitsa en el marc del desè aniversari del Màster en Teoria i Pràctica de Documental Creatiu de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Tot i que es poden traçar vincles entre el treball dels quatre cineastes escollits i algunes de les pràctiques contemporànies en l'àmbit de la no-ficció, com pot ser l'experiència de Sergei Loznitsa en el terreny del found-footage, o els documentals experimentals de caràcter assagístic d'Alexander Sokurov, així com la tendència observacional i el pas al cinema de ficció de Segei Dvortsevoi, o l'ús de la tecnologia digital en les últimes pel•lícules de Victor Kossakovski. Tot i aquestes aproximacions, es pot afirmar que el model de realisme proposat per aquests cineastes troba el seu autèntic llegat en el cinema soviètic. Una herència que comença amb el cinema de Dziga Vertov –pioner del documental artístic i revolucionari- i acaba en el d'Artavadz Pelechian.

Synaptobrevin N-terminally bound to syntaxin-SNAP-25 defines the primed vesicle state in regulated exocytosis.

Rapid neurotransmitter release depends on the ability to arrest the SNAP receptor (SNARE)-dependent exocytosis pathway at an intermediate "cocked" state, from which fusion can be triggered by Ca(2+). It is not clear whether this state includes assembly of synaptobrevin (the vesicle membrane SNARE) to the syntaxin-SNAP-25 (target membrane SNAREs) acceptor complex or whether the reaction is arrested upstream of that step. In this study, by a combination of in vitro biophysical measurements and time-resolved exocytosis measurements in adrenal chromaffin cells, we find that mutations of the N-terminal interaction layers of the SNARE bundle inhibit assembly in vitro and vesicle priming in vivo without detectable changes in triggering speed or fusion pore properties. In contrast, mutations in the last C-terminal layer decrease triggering speed and fusion pore duration. Between the two domains, we identify a region exquisitely sensitive to mutation, possibly constituting a switch. Our data are consistent with a model in which the N terminus of the SNARE complex assembles during vesicle priming, followed by Ca(2+)-triggered C-terminal assembly and membrane fusion.

Voriconazole-Induced Inhibition of the Fungicidal Activity of Amphotericin B in Candida Strains with Reduced Susceptibility to Voriconazole: an Effect Not Predicted by the MIC Value Alone.

An antagonistic effect of voriconazole on the fungicidal activity of sequential doses of amphotericin B has previously been demonstrated in Candida albicans strains susceptible to voriconazole. Because treatment failure and the need to switch to other antifungals are expected to occur more often in infections that are caused by resistant strains, it was of interest to study whether the antagonistic effect was still seen in Candida strains with reduced susceptibility to voriconazole. With the hypothesis that antagonism will not occur in voriconazole-resistant strains, C. albicans strains with characterized mechanisms of resistance against voriconazole, as well as Candida glabrata and Candida krusei strains with differences in their degrees of susceptibility to voriconazole were exposed to voriconazole or amphotericin B alone, to both drugs simultaneously, or to voriconazole followed by amphotericin B in an in vitro kinetic model. Amphotericin B administered alone or simultaneously with voriconazole resulted in fungicidal activity. When amphotericin B was administered after voriconazole, its activity was reduced (median reduction, 61%; range, 9 to 94%). Levels of voriconazole-dependent inhibition of amphotericin B activity differed significantly among the strains but were not correlated with the MIC values (correlation coefficient, -0.19; P = 0.65). Inhibition was found in C. albicans strains with increases in CDR1 and CDR2 expression but not in the strain with an increase in MDR1 expression. In summary, decreased susceptibility to voriconazole does not abolish voriconazole-dependent inhibition of the fungicidal activity of amphotericin B in voriconazole-resistant Candida strains. The degree of interaction could not be predicted by the MIC value alone.

Evolution of decision-making and learning under fluctuating social environments

The capacity to learn to associate sensory perceptions with appropriate motor actions underlies the success of many animal species, from insects to humans. The evolutionary significance of learning has long been a subject of interest for evolutionary biologists who emphasize the bene¬fit yielded by learning under changing environmental conditions, where it is required to flexibly switch from one behavior to another. However, two unsolved questions are particularly impor¬tant for improving our knowledge of the evolutionary advantages provided by learning, and are addressed in the present work. First, because it is possible to learn the wrong behavior when a task is too complex, the learning rules and their underlying psychological characteristics that generate truly adaptive behavior must be identified with greater precision, and must be linked to the specific ecological problems faced by each species. A framework for predicting behavior from the definition of a learning rule is developed here. Learning rules capture cognitive features such as the tendency to explore, or the ability to infer rewards associated to unchosen actions. It is shown that these features interact in a non-intuitive way to generate adaptive behavior in social interactions where individuals affect each other's fitness. Such behavioral predictions are used in an evolutionary model to demonstrate that, surprisingly, simple trial-and-error learn¬ing is not always outcompeted by more computationally demanding inference-based learning, when population members interact in pairwise social interactions. A second question in the evolution of learning is its link with and relative advantage compared to other simpler forms of phenotypic plasticity. After providing a conceptual clarification on the distinction between genetically determined vs. learned responses to environmental stimuli, a new factor in the evo¬lution of learning is proposed: environmental complexity. A simple mathematical model shows that a measure of environmental complexity, the number of possible stimuli in one's environ¬ment, is critical for the evolution of learning. In conclusion, this work opens roads for modeling interactions between evolving species and their environment in order to predict how natural se¬lection shapes animals' cognitive abilities. - La capacité d'apprendre à associer des sensations perceptives à des actions motrices appropriées est sous-jacente au succès évolutif de nombreuses espèces, depuis les insectes jusqu'aux êtres hu¬mains. L'importance évolutive de l'apprentissage est depuis longtemps un sujet d'intérêt pour les biologistes de l'évolution, et ces derniers mettent l'accent sur le bénéfice de l'apprentissage lorsque les conditions environnementales sont changeantes, car dans ce cas il est nécessaire de passer de manière flexible d'un comportement à l'autre. Cependant, deux questions non résolues sont importantes afin d'améliorer notre savoir quant aux avantages évolutifs procurés par l'apprentissage. Premièrement, puisqu'il est possible d'apprendre un comportement incorrect quand une tâche est trop complexe, les règles d'apprentissage qui permettent d'atteindre un com¬portement réellement adaptatif doivent être identifiées avec une plus grande précision, et doivent être mises en relation avec les problèmes écologiques spécifiques rencontrés par chaque espèce. Un cadre théorique ayant pour but de prédire le comportement à partir de la définition d'une règle d'apprentissage est développé ici. Il est démontré que les caractéristiques cognitives, telles que la tendance à explorer ou la capacité d'inférer les récompenses liées à des actions non ex¬périmentées, interagissent de manière non-intuitive dans les interactions sociales pour produire des comportements adaptatifs. Ces prédictions comportementales sont utilisées dans un modèle évolutif afin de démontrer que, de manière surprenante, l'apprentissage simple par essai-et-erreur n'est pas toujours battu par l'apprentissage basé sur l'inférence qui est pourtant plus exigeant en puissance de calcul, lorsque les membres d'une population interagissent socialement par pair. Une deuxième question quant à l'évolution de l'apprentissage concerne son lien et son avantage relatif vis-à-vis d'autres formes plus simples de plasticité phénotypique. Après avoir clarifié la distinction entre réponses aux stimuli génétiquement déterminées ou apprises, un nouveau fac¬teur favorisant l'évolution de l'apprentissage est proposé : la complexité environnementale. Un modèle mathématique permet de montrer qu'une mesure de la complexité environnementale - le nombre de stimuli rencontrés dans l'environnement - a un rôle fondamental pour l'évolution de l'apprentissage. En conclusion, ce travail ouvre de nombreuses perspectives quant à la mo¬délisation des interactions entre les espèces en évolution et leur environnement, dans le but de comprendre comment la sélection naturelle façonne les capacités cognitives des animaux.

Unconditioned responses and functional fear networks in human classical conditioning.

Human imaging studies examining fear conditioning have mainly focused on the neural responses to conditioned cues. In contrast, the neural basis of the unconditioned response and the mechanisms by which fear modulates inter-regional functional coupling have received limited attention. We examined the neural responses to an unconditioned stimulus using a partial-reinforcement fear conditioning paradigm and functional MRI. The analysis focused on: (1) the effects of an unconditioned stimulus (an electric shock) that was either expected and actually delivered, or expected but not delivered, and (2) on how related brain activity changed across conditioning trials, and (3) how shock expectation influenced inter-regional coupling within the fear network. We found that: (1) the delivery of the shock engaged the red nucleus, amygdale, dorsal striatum, insula, somatosensory and cingulate cortices, (2) when the shock was expected but not delivered, only the red nucleus, the anterior insular and dorsal anterior cingulate cortices showed activity increases that were sustained across trials, and (3) psycho-physiological interaction analysis demonstrated that fear led to increased red nucleus coupling to insula but decreased hippocampus coupling to the red nucleus, thalamus and cerebellum. The hippocampus and the anterior insula may serve as hubs facilitating the switch between engagement of a defensive immediate fear network and a resting network.

Target-guided synthesis of metal-based phosphatase inhibitors

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Imperial College of London, United Kingdom, from 2007 to 2009. PTEN is a tumour suppressor enzyme that plays important roles in the PI3K pathway which regulates growth, proliferation and survival and is thus related to many human disorders such as diabetes, neurodegenerative diseases, cardiovascular complications and cancer. It is hence of great interest to understand in detail its molecular behaviour and to find small molecules that can switch on/off its activity. For this purpose, metal complexes have been synthesized and preliminary studies in vivo show that all are capable of inhibiting PTEN.