Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: A preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

At the most recent session of the Conference of the Parties (COP19) in Warsaw (November 2013) the Warsaw international mechanism for loss and damage associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The mechanism aims at promoting the implementation of approaches to address loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change. Specifically, it aims to enhance understanding of risk management approaches to address loss and damage. Understanding risks associated with impacts due to highly predictable (slow onset) events like sea-level rise is relatively straightforward whereas assessing the effects of climate change on extreme weather events and their impacts is much more difficult. However, extreme weather events are a significant cause of loss of life and livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable countries and communities in Africa. The emerging science of probabilistic event attribution is relevant as it provides scientific evidence on the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to changes in risk of extreme events. It thus provides the opportunity to explore scientifically-backed assessments of the human influence on such events. However, different ways of framing attribution questions can lead to very different assessments of change in risk. Here we explain the methods of, and implications of different approaches to attributing extreme weather events with a focus on Africa. Crucially, it demonstrates that defining the most appropriate attribution question to ask is not a science decision but needs to be made in dialogue with those stakeholders who will use the answers.

The impact of over 80 years of land cover changes on bee and wasp pollinator communities in England

Change in land cover is thought to be one of the key drivers of pollinator declines, and yet there is a dearth of studies exploring the relationships between historical changes in land cover and shifts in pollinator communities. Here, we explore, for the first time, land cover changes in England over more than 80 years, and relate them to concurrent shifts in bee and wasp species richness and community composition. Using historical data from 14 sites across four counties, we quantify the key land cover changes within and around these sites and estimate the changes in richness and composition of pollinators. Land cover changes within sites, as well as changes within a 1 km radius outside the sites, have significant effects on richness and composition of bee and wasp species, with changes in edge habitats between major land classes also having a key influence. Our results highlight not just the land cover changes that may be detrimental to pollinator communities, but also provide an insight into how increases in habitat diversity may benefit species diversity, and could thus help inform policy and practice for future land management.

Shared parenting, law and policy: considering power within the framework of autopoietic theory

This paper uses the last few decades’ developments in the area of shared parenting to explore power within the framework of autopoietic theory. It traces how, prompted by turbulence from the political subsystem, family law has made several unsuccessful attempts to solve the perceived problem of post-separation dual-household parenting. It agrees with Luhmann and Teubner that closed autopoietic systems’ developments are limited by their normative and cognitive frameworks, and also argues that changes, which have occurred in family law, show that closed social systems do not function in total isolation. It considers power as ego’s ability to limit alter’s choices. In our functionally differentiated society, with its recent proliferation of communication, power appears more diffuse and impossible to plot into causal one-way relationships.

The housing market channel of monetary policy transmission in the Euro area

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of the housing market in the monetary policy transmission to consumption among euro area member states. It has been argued that the housing market in one country is then important when its mortgage market is well developed. The countries in the euro area follow unitary monetary policy, however, their housing and mortgage markets show some heterogeneity, which may lead to different policy effects on aggregate consumption through the housing market. Design/methodology/approach – The housing market can act as a channel of monetary policy shocks to household consumption through changes in house prices and residential investment – the housing market channel. We estimate vector autoregressive models for each country and conduct a counterfactual analysis in order to disentangle the housing market channel and assess its importance across the euro area member states. Findings – We find little evidence for heterogeneity of the monetary policy transmission through house prices across the euro area countries. Housing market variations in the euro area seem to be better captured by changes in residential investment rather than by changes in house prices. As a result we do not find significantly large house price channels. For some of the countries however, we observe a monetary policy channel through residential investment. The existence of a housing channel may depend on institutional features of both the labour market or with institutional factors capturing the degree of household debt as is the LTV ratio. Originality/value – The study contributes to the existing literature by assessing whether a unitary monetary policy has a different impact on consumption across the euro area countries through their housing and mortgage markets. We disentangle monetary-policy-induced effects on consumption associated with variations on the housing markets due to either house price variations or residential investment changes. We show that the housing market can play a role in the monetary transmission mechanism even in countries with less developed mortgage markets through variations in residential investment.

Immigration, security and the public debate on US language policy : a critical discourse analysis of language attitudes in the United States of America

The narrative of the United States is of a "nation of immigrants" in which the language shift patterns of earlier ethnolinguistic groups have tended towards linguistic assimilation through English. In recent years, however, changes in the demographic landscape and language maintenance by non-English speaking immigrants, particularly Hispanics, have been perceived as threats and have led to calls for an official English language policy.This thesis aims to contribute to the study of language policy making from a societal security perspective as expressed in attitudes regarding language and identity originating in the daily interaction between language groups. The focus is on the role of language and American identity in relation to immigration. The study takes an interdisciplinary approach combining language policy studies, security theory, and critical discourse analysis. The material consists of articles collected from four newspapers, namely USA Today, The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and San Francisco Chronicle between April 2006 and December 2007.Two discourse types are evident from the analysis namely Loyalty and Efficiency. The former is mainly marked by concerns of national identity and contains speech acts of security related to language shift, choice and English for unity. Immigrants are represented as dehumanised, and harmful. Immigration is given as sovereignty-related, racial, and as war. The discourse type of Efficiency is mainly instrumental and contains speech acts of security related to cost, provision of services, health and safety, and social mobility. Immigrants are further represented as a labour resource. These discourse types reflect how the construction of the linguistic 'we' is expected to be maintained. Loyalty is triggered by arguments that the collective identity is threatened and is itself used in reproducing the collective 'we' through hegemonic expressions of monolingualism in the public space and semi-public space. The denigration of immigrants is used as a tool for enhancing societal security through solidarity and as a possible justification for the denial of minority rights. Also, although language acquisition patterns still follow the historical trend of language shift, factors indicating cultural separateness such as the appearance of speech communities or the use of minority languages in the public space and semi-public space have led to manifestations of intolerance. Examples of discrimination and prejudice towards minority groups indicate that the perception of worth of a shared language differs from the actual worth of dominant language acquisition for integration purposes. The study further indicates that the efficient working of the free market by using minority languages to sell services or buy labour is perceived as conflicting with nation-building notions since it may create separately functioning sub-communities with a new cultural capital recognised as legitimate competence. The discourse types mainly represent securitising moves constructing existential threats. The perception of threat and ideas of national belonging are primarily based on a zero-sum notion favouring monolingualism. Further, the identity of the immigrant individual is seen as dynamic and adaptable to assimilationist measures whereas the identity of the state and its members are perceived as static. Also, the study shows that debates concerning language status are linked to extra-linguistic matters. To conclude, policy makers in the US need to consider the relationship between four factors, namely societal security based on collective identity, individual/human security, human rights, and a changing linguistic demography, for proposed language intervention measures to be successful.

The Development of Swedish Tourism Public Policy 1930-2010

In this article, the development and changes in Swedish public policy relating to tourism from the 1930s to 2010 is described and interpreted from a political economy perspective. A case study, compiled from mainly secondary sources, is analyzed from a theoretical framework based on regulation theory. The purpose with this study is to increase the understanding of how the macro political economy context has influenced the policy-making in tourism in Sweden, but also to make a contribution to an area which seems to be quite neglected when it comes to research. The changes are analyzed according to the three periods denoted as pre-Fordism (mid-19th century-1930s), Fordism (1930s-1970s) and post-Fordism (1970s to present). It is observed how the general changes between these periods regarding aspects such as regulation and deregulation, and the degree of state involvement, have affected tourism policy making. The tourism policy making has changed from being insignificant, to a high degree of state involvement including planning, control and supervision, to a situation where the market rather than government regulation is considered as state of the art. 

Commitment of the Mentally Ill in Maine: a History of Public Policy

This paper traces the historical development in the State of Maine of the procedures by which persons found to be mentally unsound can be committed to institutional care against their will. Beginning in 1820 and continuing to the present, specific changes in the statutes governing this area are noted. Both the criminal and civil commitment procedures are dealt with. Following the historical trace, pending legislation relating to the criminal commitment process is examined in detail. Finally, consideration is given to the need for a complete reexamination of the practice of involuntary commitment involving ethical and constitutional issues.

Brazilian regional development distribution, evidences for socio-economic policy

As to many Latin american countries, the impacts of the recent economic globalization on the Brazilian economy have revealed a diversified tendency in spatial development when regional economic indicators are observed. This is due to the specificities or each region, as regard their sector structure, the availability of human resources and the degree of technological innovation undertaken by local enterprises. From a situation of regional inequalities observed in lhe socio-economic levels of development at the beginning of the eighties the dynamics of the Brazilian regional evolution has presented different speeds and intensities in the several spaees. This paper aims to evaluate the dynamics of Brazilian regional development during the 1985-95 period and the impacts over the working population and regional disparities in order to offer some elements to assist social and economic policy. For this purpose Dispersion Quotients and Dispersion lntensity Coefficients were calculated based on two variables, the Regional Gross Domestic Product anel the Working Population. The results of the analysis confirm the existence of considerable regional disparities and it was observed that thc sector and regional redistribution of the GDP indicate that in a general way, no remarkable changes occurred in the regional development in the period. The results show that although the economic policies did stimulate a global convergence process of the per capita product among regions, those policies did not attenuate economic dynamism concentration to the desired extent.

Synchronization versus staggering of price changes in Brazil

Apesar de diversos modelos assumirem que os preços não se ajustam sincronizadamente, tanto a evidência empírica quanto a teórica são ambíguas. Este trabalho tem por objetivo identificar o comportamento dos reajustes de preço, analisando uma extensa base de dados brasileira. Foi encontrada uma evidência de escalonamento, mas quanto mais agregado são os dados, mais perto da sincronização perfeita eles estão. A economia brasileira também mostrou um alto grau de heterogeneidade, tanto na frequência quanto na sincronização dos ajustes de preço entre os produtos, as quais ainda variam com a taxa de inflação.

Stochastic growth and monetary policy: the impacts on the term structure of interest rates

This paper builds a simple, empirically-verifiable rational expectations model for term structure of nominal interest rates analysis. It solves an stochastic growth model with investment costs and sticky inflation, susceptible to the intervention of the monetary authority following a policy rule. The model predicts several patterns of the term structure which are in accordance to observed empirical facts: (i) pro-cyclical pattern of the level of nominal interest rates; (ii) countercyclical pattern of the term spread; (iii) pro-cyclical pattern of the curvature of the yield curve; (iv) lower predictability of the slope of the middle of the term structure; and (v) negative correlation of changes in real rates and expected inflation at short horizons.

Macroeconomic policy and poverty in Brazil

O Brasil é um país onde os 50% mais pobres se apropriam aproximadamente de 10% da renda agregada, e os 10% mais ricos detêm quase 50% deste mesmo. O colorário desse alto grau de desigualdade é que se uma pessoa está somente preocupada em maximizar o nível de GPD, a função de bem–estar social implícita adotada devota parte do seu peso ao bem-estar de 10% da população. Em outras palavras, a concentração brasileira de renda cria uma anomalia dentro da perspectiva de agente representativo implícito na análise macroeconômica aonde as pessoas valem aquilo que ganham. A análise da pobreza inverte esse peso estrutural da população, estipulando zero de peso para o segmento não pobre da sociedade e atribuindo pesos aos indivíduos que aumentam com suas necessidades insatisfeitas. Esse projeto estuda as conexões entre a evolução macroeconômica Brasileira recente e da pobreza. A análise é dividida em duas partes: A primeira parte descreve a evolução da pobreza brasileira e seus principais determinantes macroeconômicos durante os últimos 15 anos. A segunda parte tira proveito das mudanças da pobreza e desigualdades medidas durante o período 1993-96 para estudar seus principais determinantes macroeconômicos. Dado a maior importância do Plano Real, uma especial atenção foi dada a análise dos impactos da desinflação no nível e na distribuição de renda e a possível sinergia entre essas duas dimensões de determinação da pobreza. A terceira parte do projeto decompõe as mudanças dos diversos índices de pobreza através dos diferentes grupos dado pelas características dos chefes de família (i.e.; sexo, anos de estudo, raça, classe trabalhadora, setores de atividades, região, densidade populacional). Depois essa decomposição é avançada um passo desatrelando as mudanças nessa diferentes células de pobreza em termos de suas respectivas mudanças em termos de desigualdade da renda per capita. Esse perfil de pobreza ajuda a mapear as diferentes fontes de mudança da pobreza na análise histórica e fornece consistência interna para os exercícios de análises contra-factuais.

Public debt and the limits of fiscal policy to increase economic growth

Research that seeks to estimate the effects of fiscal policies on economic growth has ignored the role of public debt in this relationship. This study proposes a theoretical model of endogenous growth, which demonstrates that the level of the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio should negatively impact the effect of fiscal policy on growth. This occurs because government indebtedness extracts part of the savings of the young to pay interest on the debts of the older generation, who are no longer saving. Therefore, the payment of debt interest assumes an allocation exchange role between generations that is similar to a pay-as-you-go pension system, which results in changes in the savings rate of the economy. The major conclusions of the theoretical model were tested using an econometric model to provide evidence for the validity of this conclusion. Our empirical analysis controls for timeinvariant, country-specific heterogeneity in the growth rates. We also address endogeneity issues and allow for heterogeneity across countries in the model parameters and for cross-sectional dependence.

Tayloring Brazil: a system dynamics model for monetary policy feedback

The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total, the strong historical fit and some counterintuitive observations of the Taylor rule model call for an application of the model to other economies.

Firm financial constraints and the impact of monetary policy: evidence from financial conglomerates

Building on recent evidence on the functioning of internal capital markets in financial conglomerates, this paper conducts a novel test of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. It does so by comparing monetary policy responses of small banks that are affiliated with the same bank holding company, and this arguably face similar constraints in accessing internal/external sources of funds, but that operate in different geographical regions, and thus face different pools of borrowers. Because these subsidiaries typically concentrate their lending with small local businesses, we can use cross-sectional differences in state-level economic indicators at the time of changes of monetary policy to study whether or not the strength of borrowers' balance sheets influences the response of bank lending. We find evidence that the negative response of bank loan growth to a monetary contraction is significantly stronger when borrowers have 'weak balance sheets. Our evidence suggests that the monetary authority should consider the amplification effects that financial constraints play following changes in basic interest rates and the role of financial conglomerates in the transmission of monetary policy.

Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis

The main goal of this article is to identify the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on output in Brazil from 1997 to 2014, and, more specifically, to estimate those effects when the output falls below its potential level. To do so, we estimate VAR (vector autoregressive) models to generate impulse-response functions and causality/endogeneity tests. Our most remarkable results indicate the following channel of economic policy in Brazil: to foster output, government spending increases causing increases in both tax rates and revenue and the short-term interest rate. A fiscal stimulus via spending seems efficient for economic performance as well as monetary policy; however, the latter operates pro-cyclically in the way we defined here, while the former is predominantly countercyclical. As the monetary shock had a negative effect on GDP growth and GDP growth responded positively to the fiscal shock, it seems that the economic policy has given poise to growth with one hand and taken it with the other one. The monetary policy is only reacting to the fiscal stimuli. We were not able to find any statistically significant response of the output to tax changes, but vice versa seems work in the Brazilian case.