Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Information integration and its impacts on logistics performance - Using information technology and systems to facilitate information integration

Fast changing environment sets pressure on firms to share large amount of information with their customers and suppliers. The terms information integration and information sharing are essential for facilitating a smooth flow of information throughout the supply chain, and the terms are used interchangeably in research literature. By integrating and sharing information, firms want to improve their logistics performance. Firms share information with their suppliers and customers by using traditional communication methods (telephone, fax, Email, written and face-to-face contacts) and by using advanced or modern communication methods such as electronic data interchange (EDI), enterprise resource planning (ERP), web-based procurement systems, electronic trading systems and web portals. Adopting new ways of using IT is one important resource for staying competitive on the rapidly changing market (Saeed et al. 2005, 387), and an information system that provides people the information they need for performing their work, will support company performance (Boddy et al. 2005, 26). The purpose of this research has been to test and understand the relationship between information integration with key suppliers and/or customers and a firm’s logistics performance, especially when information technology (IT) and information systems (IS) are used for integrating information. Quantitative and qualitative research methods have been used to perform the research. Special attention has been paid to the scope, level and direction of information integration (Van Donk & van der Vaart 2005a). In addition, the four elements of integration (Jahre & Fabbe-Costes 2008) are closely tied to the frame of reference. The elements are integration of flows, integration of processes and activities, integration of information technologies and systems and integration of actors. The study found that information integration has a low positive relationship to operational performance and a medium positive relationship to strategic performance. The potential performance improvements found in this study vary from efficiency, delivery and quality improvements (operational) to profit, profitability or customer satisfaction improvements (strategic). The results indicate that although information integration has an impact on a firm’s logistics performance, all performance improvements have not been achieved. This study also found that the use of IT and IS have a mediocre positive relationship to information integration. Almost all case companies agreed on that the use of IT and IS could facilitate information integration and improve their logistics performance. The case companies felt that an implementation of a web portal or a data bank would benefit them - enhance their performance and increase information integration.

Research framework for the connection between environmental collaboration and firm performance

This thesis focuses on collaborative activities with regard to environmental issues both within the firm and outside the firm with the key suppliers and customers, i.e. internal and external environmental collaboration. Integrating environmental thinking into supply chain management has received increasing interest in recent years. The relational view and the natural resource-based-view together suggest that environmental capabilities can be built jointly with supply chain partners and used to gain sustained competitive advantage. Several studies have been undertaken to analyse the connection between environmental activities and firm performance but most studies have taken only economic performance into account. This study pays attention also to two other dimensions of firm performance, intra-firm supply chain performance and environmental performance, and aims at presenting the linkages between them and environmental collaboration. This thesis creates a research framework for the connections between environmental collaboration and firm performance and suggests approaches to analyse these. In order to find out the key concepts and their relationship, an extensive literature review is conducted. The research framework proposes a positive connection between internal and external environmental collaboration and all three dimensions of firm performance. In addition, environmental performance and intra-firm supply chain performance are expected to contribute positively to economic performance. Hence, firms are suggested to benefit from environmental collaboration both within the firm and outside the firm. Empirical testing of the developed research framework is out of the scope of this study. However, this thesis proposes using a mixed methods research approach, including survey research and multiple case studies. Finland State of Logistics 2012 survey commissioned by the Finnish Ministry of Transport and Communications and conducted by Turku School of Economics is used as an example of data for the quantitative phase. The applicability of these two methods is discussed at a general level and with regard to analysing the research framework developed in the thesis. Future research will aim at the development of the research framework and the methods in order to confirm the connection between environmental collaboration and firm performance.

Actively crafting customer value or merely representing a solution? Linking value-based selling to salesperson performance

Value-based selling is a salesperson behavioral mode which concentrates on generating superior customer value. Although service dominant logic emphasizes customer value as a central tenet for achieving strategic objectives, sales management literature has predominantly circumvented the subject matter of customer value. The purpose of this thesis is to demonstrate the distinctiveness and positive sales performance outcomes of value-based selling. Additionally, performance outcomes of value-based selling are contrasted with other key sales behaviors, selling skills and motivational orientations. As a part of this thesis, large-scale survey of 730 respondents was collected. The survey was tailored for the needs of a value-based selling research group led by Ph.D. Harri Terho. The research group used convenience sampling to select the salespeople of 25 medium- and large-scale companies in Finland which currently either practice value-based selling or consider developing these activities. This thesis contains three key findings: value-based selling is established as a distinct sales behavior, it relates directly and positively to salesperson performance and it explains the link between customer-oriented selling and salesperson performance. Value-based selling relates to salesperson performance especially in the following GICS-sectors: energy, industrials and materials. However, relationship selling relates to performance strongest in the energy sector and adaptive selling in industrials sector. In sum, it is evident that actively crafting customer value is a successful sales behavior in many business-to-business marketing environments while other sales behaviors, excluding customer-oriented selling, still uphold their significance.

Performance Determinants of Renewable Energy Companies

The purpose of this thesis is to identify the Performance Determinants (PD) of Renewable Energy (RE) companies. It analyzes the background of the RE industry while reflecting simultaneous developments in the fossil based industries. I divided the determinants into two groups: market level and firm level and established hypotheses based on the existing literature. Data from public companies was gathered to construct a Panel Data structure. This is then tested by using a Linear Regression with Fixed Effects model. The model specification was efficient at reflecting the analyzed phenomena. My results showed that both market level and firm level determinants are significant in the RE Industry but the firm level determinants had higher explanatory power (R2). The determinants' relationships were found to follow those from the manufacturing industry more than the utilities' industry. Out of the market level determinants Consumer Price Index (CPI), Interest Rates and Oil prices were significant. Out of the firm level determinants Debt to Assets, Net Investments, Cash flows from operations, Sales and Earnings Before Interests and Taxes (EBIT) were significant. I concluded that this information is valuable for key industry players as they can achieve their objectives faster by elaborating better strategies using these results.

Performance management through innovation capability in SMEs

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are assuredly important to maintain strong economic growth. How to manage and maintain SMEs’ performance is a sizable challenge, and requires an understanding of the drivers of performance. Innovation capability has been suggested to be one of these key drivers. In order to manage innovation capability– performance relationship, it has to be measured. SMEs may have distinct characteristics that separate them being just smaller versions of large firms. Performance measurement and management of innovation capability is challenging, because SMEs usually have some drawbacks compared to large firms. Thus, it is unclear whether theories developed to understand large firms apply to SMEs. This research contributes to the existing discussion on performance management through innovation capability in the SME context. First, it aims at increasing understanding of the role of innovation capability in performance management. Second, it aims at clarifying the role of performance measurement in developing innovation capability. Thus, the main objective of the research is to study how to manage performance through measuring and managing innovation capability. The thesis is based on five research articles that follow a positivist approach. From a methodological point of view, quantitative and complementing conceptual methods of data collection are utilized. This research indicates that the performance management and measurement play a significant role in innovation capability in SMEs. This research makes three main contributions. First, it gives empirical evidence on the connection between innovation capability and SME performance. Second, it illustrates the connection between performance measurement and innovation capability. Thirdly, it clarifies how to measure the relationship between innovation capability and performance.

Linking supplier delivery risk to outbound delivery service performance improvement

Customer satisfaction should be the main focus for all of the parts of the business. Usually supply chain behind the business is in a key role when this focus is pursued especially in repair service business. When focusing on the materials that are needed to make repairs to equipment under service contracts, the time aspect of quality is critical. Do late deliveries from supplier have an effect on the service performance of repairs when distribution center of a centralized purchasing unit is acting as a buffer between suppliers and repair service business? And if so, how should the improvement efforts be prioritized? These are the two main questions that this thesis focuses on. Correlation and linear regression was tested between service levels of supplier and distribution center. Percentage of on-time deliveries were compared to outbound delivery service level. It was found that there is statistically significant correlation between inbound and outbound operations success. The other main question of the thesis, improvement prioritization, was answered by creating material availability based supplier classification and additional to that, by developing the decision process for the analysis of most critical suppliers. This was built on a basis of previous supplier and material classification methods.

Lightweight, liquid-cooled, direct-drive generator for highpower wind turbines: motivation, concept, and performance

Thesis: A liquid-cooled, direct-drive, permanent-magnet, synchronous generator with helical, double-layer, non-overlapping windings formed from a copper conductor with a coaxial internal coolant conduit offers an excellent combination of attributes to reliably provide economic wind power for the coming generation of wind turbines with power ratings between 5 and 20MW. A generator based on the liquid-cooled architecture proposed here will be reliable and cost effective. Its smaller size and mass will reduce build, transport, and installation costs. Summary: Converting wind energy into electricity and transmitting it to an electrical power grid to supply consumers is a relatively new and rapidly developing method of electricity generation. In the most recent decade, the increase in wind energy’s share of overall energy production has been remarkable. Thousands of land-based and offshore wind turbines have been commissioned around the globe, and thousands more are being planned. The technologies have evolved rapidly and are continuing to evolve, and wind turbine sizes and power ratings are continually increasing. Many of the newer wind turbine designs feature drivetrains based on Direct-Drive, Permanent-Magnet, Synchronous Generators (DD-PMSGs). Being low-speed high-torque machines, the diameters of air-cooled DD-PMSGs become very large to generate higher levels of power. The largest direct-drive wind turbine generator in operation today, rated just below 8MW, is 12m in diameter and approximately 220 tonne. To generate higher powers, traditional DD-PMSGs would need to become extraordinarily large. A 15MW air-cooled direct-drive generator would be of colossal size and tremendous mass and no longer economically viable. One alternative to increasing diameter is instead to increase torque density. In a permanent magnet machine, this is best done by increasing the linear current density of the stator windings. However, greater linear current density results in more Joule heating, and the additional heat cannot be removed practically using a traditional air-cooling approach. Direct liquid cooling is more effective, and when applied directly to the stator windings, higher linear current densities can be sustained leading to substantial increases in torque density. The higher torque density, in turn, makes possible significant reductions in DD-PMSG size. Over the past five years, a multidisciplinary team of researchers has applied a holistic approach to explore the application of liquid cooling to permanent-magnet wind turbine generator design. The approach has considered wind energy markets and the economics of wind power, system reliability, electromagnetic behaviors and design, thermal design and performance, mechanical architecture and behaviors, and the performance modeling of installed wind turbines. This dissertation is based on seven publications that chronicle the work. The primary outcomes are the proposal of a novel generator architecture, a multidisciplinary set of analyses to predict the behaviors, and experimentation to demonstrate some of the key principles and validate the analyses. The proposed generator concept is a direct-drive, surface-magnet, synchronous generator with fractional-slot, duplex-helical, double-layer, non-overlapping windings formed from a copper conductor with a coaxial internal coolant conduit to accommodate liquid coolant flow. The novel liquid-cooling architecture is referred to as LC DD-PMSG. The first of the seven publications summarized in this dissertation discusses the technological and economic benefits and limitations of DD-PMSGs as applied to wind energy. The second publication addresses the long-term reliability of the proposed LC DD-PMSG design. Publication 3 examines the machine’s electromagnetic design, and Publication 4 introduces an optimization tool developed to quickly define basic machine parameters. The static and harmonic behaviors of the stator and rotor wheel structures are the subject of Publication 5. And finally, Publications 6 and 7 examine steady-state and transient thermal behaviors. There have been a number of ancillary concrete outcomes associated with the work including the following. X Intellectual Property (IP) for direct liquid cooling of stator windings via an embedded coaxial coolant conduit, IP for a lightweight wheel structure for lowspeed, high-torque electrical machinery, and IP for numerous other details of the LC DD-PMSG design X Analytical demonstrations of the equivalent reliability of the LC DD-PMSG; validated electromagnetic, thermal, structural, and dynamic prediction models; and an analytical demonstration of the superior partial load efficiency and annual energy output of an LC DD-PMSG design X A set of LC DD-PMSG design guidelines and an analytical tool to establish optimal geometries quickly and early on X Proposed 8 MW LC DD-PMSG concepts for both inner and outer rotor configurations Furthermore, three technologies introduced could be relevant across a broader spectrum of applications. 1) The cost optimization methodology developed as part of this work could be further improved to produce a simple tool to establish base geometries for various electromagnetic machine types. 2) The layered sheet-steel element construction technology used for the LC DD-PMSG stator and rotor wheel structures has potential for a wide range of applications. And finally, 3) the direct liquid-cooling technology could be beneficial in higher speed electromotive applications such as vehicular electric drives.

Store experiences and their influence on store performance and brand strength: Case Samsung Experience Store

Experiential marketing is increasingly seen as a new magical key to consumers’ hearts. Brands are turning brick-and-mortar stores into state of the art retail spaces where memorable experiences and strong brand relationships are hoped to be born. Around the globe, several brands have opened up a special format of stores – the experience store. Although many speculations on the positive effects of experiences have been presented, few studies have provided empirical, quantified evidence for the link between store experiences and brand success. In consequence, research was needed to find out whether experience stores truly are so special. The purpose of this thesis was to investigate whether store experiences are capable of building brands and influencing store performance. For this purpose, empirical research was conducted in the Samsung Experience Store Helsinki. As main constructs of the study, store experience, brand equity, store performance, and product class involvement were measured, along with relevant background variables. Data was collected with an electronic survey from actual customers of the store, resulting in a sample of 131 respondents. Partial least squares structural equations modeling (PLS) was used for the analysis of the research model. Also, regression analysis was conducted to account for mediation and moderation effects. The results showed that store experiences do positively influence first, store performance, and second, separate dimensions of brand equity (that is, brand awareness, brand personality, and brand loyalty). Also, the effect of store experiences on store performance was found to be mediated by brand equity. Interestingly, customers’ product class involvement was detected to moderate the effect of store experience on store performance. That is, those who were highly involved with electronics had greater store experiences, and also displayed a stronger linkage between store experience and store performance. The results encourage marketers to continue with efforts to create great experiences for their customers. Experience stores can – and should be seen – as both powerful brand building tools and profitable sales channels. The creation of exceptional experiences can act as an important function of physical stores in the face of severe online competition.

Proximal tubular dysfunction as an indicator of chronic graft dysfunction

New strategies are being devised to limit the impact of renal sclerosis on graft function. Individualization of immunosuppression, specifically the interruption of calcineurin-inhibitors has been tried in order to promote better graft survival once chronic graft dysfunction has been established. However, the long-term impact of these approaches is still not totally clear. Nevertheless, patients at higher risk for tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis (TA/IF) development should be carefully monitored for tubular function as well as glomerular performance. Since tubular-interstitial impairment is an early event in TA/IF pathogenesis and associated with graft function, it seems reasonable that strategies directed at assessing tubular structural integrity and function would yield important functional and prognostic data. The measurement of small proteins in urine such as α-1-microglobulin, N-acetyl-beta-D-glucosaminidase, alpha/pi S-glutathione transferases, β-2 microglobulin, and retinol binding protein is associated with proximal tubular cell dysfunction. Therefore, its straightforward assessment could provide a powerful tool in patient monitoring and ongoing clinical assessment of graft function, ultimately helping to facilitate longer patient and graft survival associated with good graft function.

Model-based testing of software systems : functionality and performance

Software is a key component in many of our devices and products that we use every day. Most customers demand not only that their devices should function as expected but also that the software should be of high quality, reliable, fault tolerant, efficient, etc. In short, it is not enough that a calculator gives the correct result of a calculation, we want the result instantly, in the right form, with minimal use of battery, etc. One of the key aspects for succeeding in today's industry is delivering high quality. In most software development projects, high-quality software is achieved by rigorous testing and good quality assurance practices. However, today, customers are asking for these high quality software products at an ever-increasing pace. This leaves the companies with less time for development. Software testing is an expensive activity, because it requires much manual work. Testing, debugging, and verification are estimated to consume 50 to 75 per cent of the total development cost of complex software projects. Further, the most expensive software defects are those which have to be fixed after the product is released. One of the main challenges in software development is reducing the associated cost and time of software testing without sacrificing the quality of the developed software. It is often not enough to only demonstrate that a piece of software is functioning correctly. Usually, many other aspects of the software, such as performance, security, scalability, usability, etc., need also to be verified. Testing these aspects of the software is traditionally referred to as nonfunctional testing. One of the major challenges with non-functional testing is that it is usually carried out at the end of the software development process when most of the functionality is implemented. This is due to the fact that non-functional aspects, such as performance or security, apply to the software as a whole. In this thesis, we study the use of model-based testing. We present approaches to automatically generate tests from behavioral models for solving some of these challenges. We show that model-based testing is not only applicable to functional testing but also to non-functional testing. In its simplest form, performance testing is performed by executing multiple test sequences at once while observing the software in terms of responsiveness and stability, rather than the output. The main contribution of the thesis is a coherent model-based testing approach for testing functional and performance related issues in software systems. We show how we go from system models, expressed in the Unified Modeling Language, to test cases and back to models again. The system requirements are traced throughout the entire testing process. Requirements traceability facilitates finding faults in the design and implementation of the software. In the research field of model-based testing, many new proposed approaches suffer from poor or the lack of tool support. Therefore, the second contribution of this thesis is proper tool support for the proposed approach that is integrated with leading industry tools. We o er independent tools, tools that are integrated with other industry leading tools, and complete tool-chains when necessary. Many model-based testing approaches proposed by the research community suffer from poor empirical validation in an industrial context. In order to demonstrate the applicability of our proposed approach, we apply our research to several systems, including industrial ones.

Doubly fed wind turbine performance in variable grid conditions

Wind turbines based on doubly fed induction generators (DFIG) become the most popular solution in high power wind generation industry. While this topology provides great performance with the reduced power rating of power converter, it has more complicated structure in comparison with full-rated topologies, and therefore leads to complexity of control algorithms and electromechanical processes in the system. The purpose of presented study is to present a proper vector control scheme for the DFIG and overall control for the WT to investigate its behavior at different wind speeds and in different grid voltage conditions: voltage sags, magnitude and frequency variations. The key principles of variable-speed wind turbine were implemented in simulation model and demonstrated during the study. Then, based on developed control scheme and mathematical model, the set of simulation is made to analyze reactive power capabilities of the DFIG wind turbine. Further, the rating of rotor-side converter is modified to not only generate active rated active power, but also to fulfill Grid Codes. Results of modelling and analyzing of the DFIG WT behavior under different speeds and different voltage conditions are presented in the work.

Film with anthocyanins as an indicator of chilled pork deterioration

An indicator can be defined as a substance which indicates the presence or absence of another substance or the degree of a certain reaction through characteristic changes, especially color. Therefore, the aim of this work is to evaluate the performance of a bio-based film with anthocyanin as an indicator of chilled pork deterioration. A film made of cassava starch, glycerol, and grape anthocyanins was prepared using the casting technique. Pork loin samples were put in Petri dishes containing an anthocyanin film on the bottom and stored at 4 ºC. Psychrotrophic microorganism count and the pH of the pork loin samples were analyzed for a 14 day- period. At the same time, the films were subjected to colorimetric analysis using D65 illuminant and the CIELAB system. Chroma and hue angle data for these films were evaluated by Anova and Dunnett's test. An increase in the microbial population and in the pH was observed over the storage period as result of pork deterioration. Color changes were also identified in the film. However, only at the beginning of the storage period was it possible to establish a correlation between film color and pork deterioration. The shelf life end-point could not be clearly detected by the film.

Reputational Risk Management as a key element for business continuity and value maximization

This thesis reveals the topic of reputational risk management as a key element for business continuity and value maximization. The purpose of the work is to investigate reputational risk from the side of its definition, management (including legal requirements on this risk category) and measurement and to analyse reputational risk’s impact on business continuity and value maximization. To be able to do this, different respective articles, reports of financial institutions are gathered and constructive summaries and analysis are made. In order to deeply investigate the impact of reputational risk on business continuity and value maximization, it was chosen to study it from three aspects: 1) check the impact of stock valuation of 7 companies that experienced reputational catastrophe / risk, 2) analyse a case study on disagreements in management of reputational risk among case companies and impact on their respective performance, and 3) conduct a survey of financial sector companies in Liechtenstein to see how reputational risk management works in practice. The findings of the research showed a significant impact of reputation decadence on company’s value and trading volume, and showed crucial importance of post-crisis management for the company’s financial performance. The results of the qualitative research based on survey proved that companies consider reputational risk management as a one of the key elements for their business continuity and value maximization.

Performance improvement in mediterranean operations using risk management analysis : Case study of Containerships Group Ltd

Emerging markets of Northern Africa and Turkey provide growth opportunities for logistics service companies in the middle of low growth environment of European Union. The purpose of this research is to explore and analyze the risk factors in container shipping industry and third party logistics (3PL) services. The research empirically examined the risk factors, which are related within the interaction between these two parties in emerging markets of Mediterranean area. The previous studies have provided a valuable insight into the operational risks faced by container shipping industries. However, most of these studies have focused on one or several operational risk factors from a single point of view, and no studies have inclusively examined the possible operational risks faced in the container shipping industry from dual perspective of 3PL provider and its customers. A questionnaire has been deployed to collect related data; and the impacts of the risks were then be assessed and ranked using the method of risk mapping. Respondents were located in Turkey, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. Research presents the most important risk factors identified, and compares them between 3PL provider and its customers. The research also provide some risk mitigation strategies for the key risk factors, and tried to figure out a common risk picture, which guides the managers in both sides to have a better decisions and as a result, improve the performance of the container shipping operations. Challenge during project execution time was that customers identified vast amount of more risks than what was the case with logistics service operator.