Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Liminality of Cosmopolitanism from the Global South – Transnational Activists in Costa Rica between Colonial Legacies and Decolonial Attitudes

The Master’s thesis examines whether and how decolonial cosmopolitanism is empirically traceable in the attitudes and practices of Costa Rican activists working in transnational advocacy organizations. Decolonial cosmopolitanism is defined as a form of cosmopolitanism from below that aims to propose ways of imagining – and putting into practice – a truly globe-encompassing civic community not based on relations of domination but on horizontal dialogue. This concept has been developed by and shares its basic presumptions with the theory on coloniality that the modernity/coloniality/decoloniality research group is putting forward. It is analyzed whether and how the workings of coloniality as underlying ontological assumption of decolonial cosmopolitanism and broadly subsumable under the three logics of race, capitalism, and knowledge, are traceable in intermediate postcolonial transnational advocacy in Costa Rica. The method of analysis chosen to approach these questions is content analysis, which is used for the analysis of qualitative semi-structured in-depth interviews with Costa Rican activists working in advocacy organizations with transnational ties. Costa Rica was chosen as it – while unquestionably a Latin American postcolonial country and thus within the geo-political context in which the concept was developed – introduces a complex setting of socio-cultural and political factors that put the explanatory potential of the concept to the test. The research group applies the term ‘coloniality’ to describe how the social, political, economic, and epistemic relations developed during the colonization of the Americas order global relations and sustain Western domination still today through what is called the logic of coloniality. It also takes these processes as point of departure for imagining how counter-hegemonic contestations can be achieved through the linking of local struggles to a global community that is based on pluriversality. The issues that have been chosen as most relevant expressions of the logic of coloniality in the context of Costa Rican transnational advocacy and that are thus empirically scrutinized are national identity as ‘white’ exceptional nation with gender equality (racism), the neoliberalization of advocacy in the Global South (capitalism), and finally Eurocentrism, but also transnational civil society networks as first step in decolonizing civic activism (epistemic domination). The findings of this thesis show that the various ways in which activists adopt practices and outlooks stemming from the center in order to empower themselves and their constituencies, but also how their particular geo-political position affects their work, cannot be reduced to one single logic of coloniality. Nonetheless, the aspects of race, gender, capitalism and epistemic hegemony do undeniably affect activist cosmopolitan attitudes and transnational practices. While the premisses on which the concept of decolonial cosmopolitanism is based suffer from some analytical drawbacks, its importance is seen in its ability to take as point of departure the concrete spaces in which situated social relations develop. It thus allows for perceiving the increasing interconnectedness between different levels of social and political organizing as contributing to cosmopolitan visions combining local situatedness with global community as normative horizon that have not only influenced academic debate, but also political projects.

Implementing virtual collaborative inquiry practises in a middle-school context

The aim of the present study was to investigate the challenges that relate to the implementation of virtual inquiry practises in middle school. The case was a school course in which a group of Finnish students (N = 14) and teachers (N = 7) completed group inquiries through virtual collaboration, using a web-based learning environment. The task was to accomplish a cross-disciplinary inquiry into cultural issues. The students worked mainly at home and took much responsibility for their course achievements. The investigators analysed the pedagogical design of the course and the content of the participants' interaction patterns in the web-based environment, using qualitative content analysis and social network analysis. The findings suggest that the students succeeded in producing distinctive cultural products, and both the students and the teachers adopted novel roles during the inquiry. The web-based learning environment was used more as a coordination tool for organizing the collaborative work than as a forum for epistemic inquiry. The tension between the school curriculum and the inquiry practises was manifest in the participants' discussions of the assessment criteria of the course.

Una gramática descriptiva del chabacano de Ternate

This dissertation is a descriptive grammar of Ternate Chabacano, a Spanish-lexifier Creole spoken by 3.000 people in the town of Ternate, Philippines. The dissertation offers an analysis of the phonological, morphological, and syntactic system of the language. It includes an overview of the historical background, the current situation of the speech community and a collection of annotated texts. Ternate Chabacano shares many characteristics with its main adstrate language Tagalog as well as the dialectal varieties of Spanish. At present, English also exerts an influence, nevertheless mainly affecting its lexicon. The description offered is based on fieldwork conducted in Ternate. Spoken language collected through thematic interviews forms the main type of the material analysed. Information regarding the informants and text types is included in the examples. Ternate Chabacano has a five-vowel system and 17 consonant phonemes. The morphology of the language is largely isolating. Clitics are used extensively for expressing adverbial relations. The verbal system is based on the preverbal markers that express the category of tense, modality and aspect, among which aspect is the main dimension. Complex predicates and verbal chains are used in order to further distinguish aspect and modality, as well as changes of voice and valency. Intransitive verbs express motion, states, and reflexive actions, even though the majority of verbs can occur in both intransitive and transitive clauses. Ternate Chabacano is a nominative-accusative type language but the typological configuration of the Philippine languages influences the marking of its constituents. A case in point is constituted by the nominal determination system. The basic constituent order in a clause is VSO. Equative and attibutive clauses are formed by juxtaposition while the locative clauses feature a copula. Indefinite terms are expressed through existential constructions. The negation of existential clauses differs from standard negation but both are intensified in the same way. In spoken discourse, tag-questions are common. Pragmatic elements and social formulas reflect largely the corresponding Tagalog expressions. Coordination and subordination occur typically without overt markers but a variety of markers exists for expressing different relations, especially those made explicit by adverbial clauses. Verbal chains form a continuum from serial verbs to complementation and ultimately to coordination.

A Priori and the A Posteriori

The distinction between a priori and a posteriori knowledge has been the subject of an enormous amount of discussion, but the literature is biased against recognizing the intimate relationship between these forms of knowledge. For instance, it seems to be almost impossible to find a sample of pure a priori or a posteriori knowledge. In this paper it will be suggested that distinguishing between a priori and a posteriori is more problematic than is often suggested, and that a priori and a posteriori resources are in fact used in parallel. We will define this relationship between a priori and a posteriori knowledge as the bootstrapping relationship. As we will see, this relationship gives us reasons to seek for an altogether novel definition of a priori and a posteriori knowledge. Specifically, we will have to analyse the relationship between a priori knowledge and a priori reasoning, and it will be suggested that the latter serves as a more promising starting point for the analysis of aprioricity. We will also analyse a number of examples from the natural sciences and consider the role of a priori reasoning in these examples. The focus of this paper is the analysis of the concepts of a priori and a posteriori knowledge rather than the epistemic domain of a posteriori and a priori justification.

High On-Off Ratio Bilayer Graphene Complementary Field Effect Transistors

In this paper, we propose a novel S/D engineering for dual-gated Bilayer Graphene (BLG) Field Effect Transistor (FET) using doped semiconductors (with a bandgap) as source and drain to obtain unipolar complementary transistors. To simulate the device, a self-consistent Non-Equilibrium Green's Function (NEGF) solver has been developed and validated against published experimental data. Using the simulator, we predict an on-off ratio in excess of 10(4) and a subthreshold slope of similar to 110mV/decade with excellent scalability and current saturation, for a 20nm gate length unipolar BLG FET. However, the performance of the proposed device is found to be strongly dependent on the S/D series resistance effect. The obtained results show significant improvements over existing reports, marking an important step towards bilayer graphene logic devices.

Comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Andaman-Nicobar Regions

An updated catalog of earthquakes has been prepared for the Andaman-Nicobar and adjoining regions. The catalog was homogenized to a unified magnitude scale, and declustering of the catalog was performed to remove aftershocks and foreshocks. Eleven regional source zones were identified in the study area to account for local variability in seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters were estimated for each of these source zones, and the seismic hazard evaluation of the Andaman-Nicobar region has been performed using different source models and attenuation relations. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed with currently available data and their best possible scientific interpretation using an appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainty by considering alternative models (source models, maximum magnitude, and attenuation relationships). The hazard maps for different periods have been produced for horizontal ground motion on the bedrock level.

Deterministic seismic hazard macrozonation of India

Earthquakes are known to have occurred in Indian subcontinent from ancient times. This paper presents the results of seismic hazard analysis of India (6 degrees-38 degrees N and 68 degrees-98 degrees E) based on the deterministic approach using latest seismicity data (up to 2010). The hazard analysis was done using two different source models (linear sources and point sources) and 12 well recognized attenuation relations considering varied tectonic provinces in the region. The earthquake data obtained from different sources were homogenized and declustered and a total of 27,146 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were listed in the study area. The sesismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. A new program was developed in MATLAB for smoothing of the point sources. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees (approximately 10 x 10 km), and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 300 to 400 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral accelerations for periods 0.1 and 1 s have been calculated for all the grid points with a deterministic approach using a code written in MATLAB. Epistemic uncertainty in hazard definition has been tackled within a logic-tree framework considering two types of sources and three attenuation models for each grid point. The hazard evaluation without logic tree approach also has been done for comparison of the results. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of hazard values are presented in the paper.

Efficient method of moving shadow detection and vehicle classification

Moving shadow detection and removal from the extracted foreground regions of video frames, aim to limit the risk of misconsideration of moving shadows as a part of moving objects. This operation thus enhances the rate of accuracy in detection and classification of moving objects. With a similar reasoning, the present paper proposes an efficient method for the discrimination of moving object and moving shadow regions in a video sequence, with no human intervention. Also, it requires less computational burden and works effectively under dynamic traffic road conditions on highways (with and without marking lines), street ways (with and without marking lines). Further, we have used scale-invariant feature transform-based features for the classification of moving vehicles (with and without shadow regions), which enhances the effectiveness of the proposed method. The potentiality of the method is tested with various data sets collected from different road traffic scenarios, and its superiority is compared with the existing methods. (C) 2013 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Alfonso I y Alfonso VII : del condado al reino de Portugal. Jurisdicción, pacto y fronteras en el contexto del imperio leonés

Resumen: Las relaciones entre el condado de Portugal y el reino de León en la segunda mitad del siglo XII únicamente pueden ser entendidas en el contexto de fronteras entre ambos territorios, el tipo de dominio indirecto leonés, pero siempre marcando jurisdicción efectiva, las relaciones de parentesco entre las hijas y los nietos de Alfonso VI de León, y el papado romano en el ejercicio de su auctoritas. Esta ponencia da un nuevo punto de vista a la consolidación del reino de Portugal, dentro del ámbito del Imperium legionense, y de la definitiva separación e independencia del territorio lusitano de la Corona de León.

Condicionantes epistémicos y extra-epistémicos de la apropiación social de las creencias científicas

Resumen: En este artículo se examina el proceso de distribución y apropiación social de las creencias científicas como una forma particular de intercambio de conocimiento entre agentes en condiciones de asimetría cognitiva. Se parte de la premisa de que el “principio general del testimonio” capta la estructura epistémica de deferencia a la autoridad cognitiva que permite la circulación de saber entre científicos y legos. En ese marco se analizan la atribución de crédito y construcción de la confianza recíproca involucrados en el desarrollo de la interacción. Para concluir, se destaca la relevancia que adquiere en esos procesos un núcleo de presupuestos de orden sociocultural –las representaciones sociales de los agentes– que conforma el contexto significativo en que se enmarca el intercambio de conocimiento.

Los sistemas de cognición distribuida en la enseñanza universitaria en función del tipo de ciencia

Desde el enfoque psicológico denominado “Cognición Distribuida” es posible postular tres formas de distribución de la cognición en el interior de los sistemas de actividad: física, sociocomunicacional y simbólico-instrumental. Esta comunicación aborda la configuración de dichos sistemas, en función de las prácticas institucionales prevalecientes en la Universidad Nacional de Rosario (UNR), Argentina. Se postula que dichas prácticas institucionales varían según el tipo de conocimiento que se vehiculiza en la acción enseñante: social y no social. La investigación consistió en la observación naturalista de 28 clases universitarias pertenecientes a tres carreras sociales y tres carreras exactas-naturales (14 clases por tipo epistémico de carrera). La observación estuvo focalizada en los tres sistemas de distribución de la cognición. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren una relación de sentido entre los mencionados tipos epistémico-institucionales y la configuración de los sistemas físico y simbólico.

Derecho natural y ciencia jurídica : consideraciones sobre la ciencia del derecho como ciencia práctica

Resumen: En el trabajo se aborda la vexata quaestio de la cientificidad de la ciencia jurídica, a la que se le impugna la pretensión de ser científica y, a la vez, práctica. Se estudian las impugnaciones realizadas en ese sentido por Claude Lévi-Strauss y Hans Albert, así como los intentos de algunos filósofos del derecho analíticos de superarla a través del análisis lógico del lenguaje jurídico. Se analizan después los cuestionamientos efectuados por algunos representantes de la filosofía hermenéutica, que critican los ensayos analíticos y proponen una concepción interpretativa de la ciencia jurídica. Luego de esta exposición, el A. evalúa las aportaciones analíticas y hermenéuticas, poniendo de relieve sus fortalezas y sus falencias a la hora de establecer el estatuto científico de la ciencia jurídica, para pasar finalmente a proponer una concepción de la ciencia del derecho heredera de la tradición de la filosofía práctica de cuño aristotélico. En este punto, el A. desarrolla —con base en el pensamiento de Tomás de Aquino— una concepción analógica del conocimiento científico y explica de qué modo es posible aplicarla a un saber acerca del derecho que resulte, a la vez, científico y práctico. Finalmente, desenvuelve la necesidad epistémica de una apertura del conocimiento de la ciencia jurídica a los primeros principios prácticos, que la vincula constitutivamente a la doctrina de la ley natural, así como al nivel máximamente determinado de la prudencia jurídica.

A educação legislativa é uma resposta à crise do parlamento?

Analisa a crise do Parlamento no desempenho de suas funções típicas, a saber, a representativa, a legislativa e a fiscalizadora. Em seguida, desenvolve o conceito de educação legislativa, destacando duas dimensões: os efeitos epistêmicos do desempenho das funções típicas e as atividades de caráter estritamente educativo, como o Parlamento Jovem. Por fim,discute se a educação legislativa pode ser considerada uma resposta para a crise do Parlamento.

Report on the pinniped and sea otter tagging workshop 18-19 January 1979 Seattle, Washington

The Marine Mammal Tagging Office has been created by consensus of the agencies responsible for marine mammal management and the scientific community dealing with marine mammal tagging and marking. The purpose of ths office is to facilitate the dissemination of information with regard to tagging, marking, tags, and marks; to determine the need for new and better materials for tags; and to stimulate research, development, and testing programs. The American Institute of Biological Sciences was requested to coordinate a workshop to determine the status of pinniped tagging both nationally and internationally. Approximately 30 scientists were invited to participate in the workshop which was held on 18-19 January 1979 at the Sand Point Laboratory of the National Marine Fisheries Service in Seattle, Washington. Topics included ranged from specific tagging programs to general considerations and similar problems encountered by researchers. Participants also participated in one of three working groups -- Sea Otters, Phocids, and Otariids --to address pertinent issues. These break-out sessions resulted in the general recommendations and specific considerations sections of this report. Abstract authors include: Alton Y. Roppel; Ken Pitcher; Burney J. Le Boeuf; Wybrand Hoek; Robert M. Warneke; Don B. Siniff; Doug P. DeMaster; Daniel J. Miller; Ian Stirling; Roger L. Gentry; Lanny H. Cornell; James E. Antrim; Edward D. Asper; Mark Keyes; R. Keith Farrell; Donald G. Calkins; Bob DeLong; T. A. Gornall; Tom Otten; and, Ancel M. Johnson (PDF contains 54 pages)