Valor preditivo do "Clinical Risk Index for Babies" para o risco de mortalidade neonatal

OBJETIVO: Comparar o valor preditivo do CRIB (Clinical Risk Index for Babies) para o risco de mortalidade neonatal ao peso de nascimento (PN) e idade gestacional (IG). MÉTODO: Numa coorte prospectiva foram estudados, durante o ano de 1996, 71 recém-nascidos admitidos na unidade de terapia intensiva, com PN < 1.500 g e/ou IG < 31 semanas. RESULTADOS: A taxa de mortalidade foi de 29,6%; para PN < 1.000 g ou IG < 29 semanas foi de 60%, enquanto que para o escore de CRIB > 10 foi de 100%. CONCLUSÕES: O escore de CRIB > 10 correspondeu a maiores especificidade e valor preditivo positivo em relação aos demais parâmetros. A área determinada pela "receiver operating characteristic" relativa ao CRIB também foi superior. O CRIB mostrou-se um marcador mais acurado na previsão de risco de mortalidade quando comparado ao PN ou IG isoladamente.

Open and closed positions and stock index futures volatility

In this paper we analyze the relationship between volatility in index futures markets and the number of open and closed positions. We observe that, although in general both positions are positively correlated with contemporaneous volatility, in the case of S&P 500, only the number of open positions has influence over the volatility. Additionally, we observe a stronger positive relationship on days characterized by extreme movements of these contracting movements dominating the market. Finally, our findings suggest that day-traders are not associated to an increment of volatility, whereas uninformed traders, both opening and closing their positions, have to do with it.

Volatility regimes for the VIX index

This article presents a Markov chain framework to characterize the behavior of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX index). Two possible regimes are considered: high volatility and low volatility. The specification accounts for deviations from normality and the existence of persistence in the evolution of the VIX index. Since the time evolution of the VIX index seems to indicate that its conditional variance is not constant over time, I consider two different versions of the model. In the first one, the variance of the index is a function of the volatility regime, whereas the second version includes an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) specification for the conditional variance of the index.

Genus and Braid Index Associated to Sequences of Renormalizable Lorenz Maps

We describe the Lorenz links generated by renormalizable Lorenz maps with reducible kneading invariant (K(f)(-), = K(f)(+)) = (X, Y) * (S, W) in terms of the links corresponding to each factor. This gives one new kind of operation that permits us to generate new knots and links from the ones corresponding to the factors of the *-product. Using this result we obtain explicit formulas for the genus and the braid index of this renormalizable Lorenz knots and links. Then we obtain explicit formulas for sequences of these invariants, associated to sequences of renormalizable Lorenz maps with kneading invariant (X, Y) * (S,W)*(n), concluding that both grow exponentially. This is specially relevant, since it is known that topological entropy is constant on the archipelagoes of renormalization.

Lesões da substância branca por ressonância magnética: uma avaliação entre as ponderações DWI e T2 FLAIR

RESUMO: Objetivos – Determinar a sensibilidade e especificidade das ponderações Difusão (DWI) e T2 Fluid-Attenuated Inversion Recovery (FLAIR) na avaliação de lesões da substância branca (SB) e verificar em que medida se complementam, por forma a criar um conjunto de boas práticas na RM cranioencefálica de rotina. Metodologia – Recorrendo-se a uma metodologia quantitativa, efetuou-se uma análise retrospetiva da qual foram selecionados 30 pacientes, 10 sem patologia e 20 com patologia (2 com EM, 7 com Leucoencefalopatia, 6 com doença microangiopática e 5 com patologia da substância branca indefinida). Obteve-se uma amostra de 60 imagens, nomeadamente: 30 imagens ponderadas em DWI e 30 em T2 FLAIR. Recorrendo ao programa Viewdex®, três observadores avaliaram um conjunto de imagens segundo sete critérios: visibilidade, deteção, homogeneidade, localização, margens e dimensões da lesão e capacidade de diagnóstico. Com os resultados obtidos recorreu-se ao cálculo de sensibilidade e especificidade pelas Curvas ROC, bem como à análise estatística, nomeadamente, Teste-T, Índice de Concordância Kappa e coeficiente de correlação de Pearson entre as variáveis em estudo. Resultados – Os resultados de sensibilidade e de especificidade obtidos para a ponderação T2 FLAIR foram superiores (0,915 e 0,038, respetivamente) aos da ponderação DWI (0,08 e 0,100, respetivamente). Não se verificaram variâncias populacionais significativas. Obteve-se uma elevada correlação linear entre as variáveis com um valor r situado entre 0,8 e 0,99. Verificou-se também uma variabilidade considerável entre os observadores. Conclusões – Dados os baixos valores de sensibilidade e especificidade obtidos para a DWI, sugere-se que esta deva ser incluída no protocolo de rotina de crânio como auxiliar no diagnóstico diferencial com outras patologias.

Efectividade da terapia manual ortopédica num caso de lombociatalgia com um mecanismo dominante de sensibilização nervosa periférica: estudo de caso

Introdução: Existem diversas causas e/ou estruturas responsáveis pela dor lombar, com ou sem irradiação para o membro inferior, pelo que o sucesso no tratamento deste problema depende do diagnóstico diferencial e, consequentemente, da escolha do tratamento mais adequado a cada situação. Objectivo: avaliar os efeitos da terapia manual ortopédica num caso de lombociatalgia, cujo mecanismo dominante é a sensibilização nervosa periférica, no final do tratamento e 8 semanas após a conclusão do mesmo, e descrever a avaliação e intervenção realizadas. Métodos: foi realizado um estudo de caso acerca dum utente do sexo masculino, com 35 anos de idade, e com um quadro clínico compatível com uma situação de sensibilização nervosa periférica. A intervenção consistiu em 5 sessões distribuídas ao longo de 3 semanas. Como instrumentos de avaliação foram utilizados o 'Índice de incapacidade de Oswestry para a lombalgia’ e a Escala Numérica da Dor (END), que foram aplicados na primeira e na última sessões de tratamento e 8 semanas após esta. Resultados: Após o tratamento, verificou-se uma diminuição da incapacidade (de 74 para 2/100) e da intensidade da dor (dor matinal: de 4 para 1/10; dor associada a actividades/posturas em flexão: de 7-8 para 2/10; dor ao fim do dia: de 3-4 para 1-2/10). Oito semanas após a conclusão do tratamento estes valores mantinham-se praticamente inalterados. Conclusão: O processo de raciocínio clínico utilizado na avaliação e intervenção deste caso foi demonstrado. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a terapia manual ortopédica poderá ser eficaz na diminuição da dor e da incapacidade em casos de lombociatalgia por sensibilização nervosa periférica, e que os ganhos se poderão manter 8 semanas após a conclusão do tratamento. Este estudo pode constituir uma evidência preliminar a favor da terapia manual ortopédica no tratamento deste subgrupo de utentes.

Differential expression of the eukaryotic release factor 3 (eRF3/GSPT1) according to gastric cancer histological types

Background: There are now several lines of evidence to suggest that protein synthesis and translation factors are involved in the regulation of cell proliferation and cancer development. Aims: To investigate gene expression patterns of eukaryotic releasing factor 3 (eRF3) in gastric cancer. Methods: RNA was prepared from 25 gastric tumour biopsies and adjacent non-neoplastic mucosa. Real time TaqMan reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to measure the relative gene expression levels. DNA was isolated from tumour and normal tissues and gene dosage was determined by a quantitative real time PCR using SYBR Green dye. Results: Different histological types of gastric tumours were analysed and nine of the 25 tumours revealed eRF3/GSPT1 overexpression; moreover, eight of the 12 intestinal type carcinomas analysed overexpressed the gene, whereas eRF3/GSPT1 was overexpressed in only one of the 10 diffuse type carcinomas (Kruskal-Wallis Test; p , 0.05). No correlation was found between ploidy and transcript expression levels of eRF3/GSPT1. Overexpression of eRF3/GSPT1 was not associated with increased translation rates because the upregulation of eRF3/GSPT1 did not correlate with increased eRF1 levels. Conclusions: Overexpression of eRF3/GSPT1 in intestinal type gastric tumours may lead to an increase in the translation efficiency of specific oncogenic transcripts. Alternatively, eRF3/GSPT1 may be involved in tumorigenesis as a result of its non-translational roles, namely (dis)regulating the cell cycle, apoptosis, or transcription.

Functional biogeography of oceanic islands and the scaling of functional diversity in the Azores

Analyses of species-diversity patterns of remote islands have been crucial to the development of biogeographic theory, yet little is known about corresponding patterns in functional traits on islands and how, for example, they may be affected by the introduction of exotic species. We collated trait data for spiders and beetles and used a functional diversity index (FRic) to test for nonrandomness in the contribution of endemic, other native (also combined as indigenous), and exotic species to functional-trait space across the nine islands of the Azores. In general, for both taxa and for each distributional category, functional diversity increases with species richness, which, in turn scales with island area. Null simulations support the hypothesis that each distributional group contributes to functional diversity in proportion to their species richness. Exotic spiders have added novel trait space to a greater degree than have exotic beetles, likely indicating greater impact of the reduction of immigration filters and/or differential historical losses of indigenous species. Analyses of species occurring in native-forest remnants provide limited indications of the operation of habitat filtering of exotics for three islands, but only for beetles. Although the general linear (not saturating) pattern of trait-space increase with richness of exotics suggests an ongoing process of functional enrichment and accommodation, further work is urgently needed to determine how estimates of extinction debt of indigenous species should be adjusted in the light of these findings.

The adjusted effect of maternal body mass index, energy and macronutrient intakes during pregnancy, and gestational weight gain on body composition of full-term neonates

Objective - To evaluate the effect of prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), energy and macronutrient intakes during pregnancy, and gestational weight gain (GWG) on the body composition of full-term appropriate-for-gestational age neonates. Study Design - This is a cross-sectional study of a systematically recruited convenience sample of mother-infant pairs. Food intake during pregnancy was assessed by food frequency questionnaire and its nutritional value by the Food Processor Plus (ESHA Research Inc, Salem, OR). Neonatal body composition was assessed both by anthropometry and air displacement plethysmography. Explanatory models for neonatal body composition were tested by multiple linear regression analysis. Results - A total of 100 mother-infant pairs were included. Prepregnancy overweight was positively associated with offspring weight, weight/length, BMI, and fat-free mass in the whole sample; in males, it was also positively associated with midarm circumference, ponderal index, and fat mass. Higher energy intake from carbohydrate was positively associated with midarm circumference and weight/length in the whole sample. Higher GWG was positively associated with weight, length, and midarm circumference in females. Conclusion - Positive adjusted associations were found between both prepregnancy BMI and energy intake from carbohydrate and offspring body size in the whole sample. Positive adjusted associations were also found between prepregnancy overweight and adiposity in males, and between GWG and body size in females.

Differential expression of CDC25 phosphatases splice variants in human breast cancer cells

Background: CDC25 phosphatases control cell cycle progression by activating cyclin dependent kinases. The three CDC25 isoforms encoding genes are submitted to alternative splicing events which generate at least two variants for CDC25A and five for both CDC25B and CDC25C. An over-expression of CDC25 was reported in several types of cancer, including breast cancer, and is often associated with a poor prognosis. Nevertheless, most of the previous studies did not address the expression of CDC25 splice variants. Here, we evaluated CDC25 spliced transcripts expression in anti-cancerous drug-sensitive and resistant breast cancer cell lines in order to identify potential breast cancer biomarkers. Methods: CDC25 splice variants mRNA levels were evaluated by semi-quantitative RT-PCR and by an original real-time RT-PCR assay. Results: CDC25 spliced transcripts are differentially expres-sed in the breast cancer cell lines studied. An up-regulation of CDC25A2 variant and an increase of the CDC25C5/C1 ratio are associated to the multidrug-resistance in VCREMS and DOXOR breast cancer cells, compared to their sensitive counterpart cell line MCF-7. Additionally, CDC25B2 tran-script is exclusively over-expressed in VCREMS resistant cells and could therefore be involved in the development of certain type of drug resistance. Conclusions: CDC25 splice variants could represent interesting potential breast cancer prognostic biomarkers.

Differential expression of GSPT1 GGCn alleles in cancer

The human eukaryotic release factor 3a (eRF3a), encoded by the G1 to S phase transition 1 gene (GSPT1; alias eRF3a), is upregulated in various human cancers. GSPT1 contains a GGCn polymorphism in exon 1, encoding a polyglycine expansion in the N-terminal of the protein. The longer allele, GGC12, was previously shown to be associated to cancer. The GGC12 allele was present in 2.2% of colorectal cancer patients but was absent in Crohn disease patients and in the control group. Real-time quantitative RT-PCR analysis showed that the GGC12 allele was present at up to 10-fold higher transcription levels than the GGC10 allele (P < 0.001). No GSPT1 amplifications were detected, and there was no correlation between the length of the alleles and methylation levels of the CpG sites inside the GGC expansion. Using flow cytometry, we compared the levels of apoptosis and proliferation rates between cell lines with different genotypes, but detected no significant differences. Finally, we used a cytokinesis-block micronucleus assay to evaluate the frequency of micronuclei in the same cell lines. Cell lines with the longer alleles had higher frequencies of micronuclei in binucleated cells, which is probably a result of defects in mitotic spindle formation. Altogether, these findings indicate that GSPT1 should be considered a potential proto-oncogene.

Multi index model - uma abordagem para aplicação ao mercado accionista em Portugal

O mercado accionista, de uma forma global, tem-se revelado nos últimos tempos uma das principais fontes de incentivo ao mercado de valores mobiliários. O seu impacto junto do público em geral é enorme e a sua importância para as empresas é vital. Interessa, então, perceber como é que a teoria financeira tem obordado a avaliação e a compreensão do processo de formação de uma cotação. Desde os anos 50 até aos dias de hoje, interessa perceber como é que os diferentes autores têm tratado esta abordagem e quais os resultados deste confronto. Interessa sobretudo perceber o abordogem de Stephen Ross e a teoria do arbitragem. Na sequência desta obordagem e com o aparecimento do Multi Index Model, passou a ser possível extimar com maior precisão a evolução da cotação, na medida em que esta estaria dependente de um vasto conjunto de variavéis, que abragem uma vasta área de influência. O contributo de Ross é por isso decisivo. No final interessa reter a melhor técnica e teoria, que defende os interesses do investidor. Face o isto resta, então, saber qual a melhor técnica estatística para proceder a estes estudos empíricos.

Comorbidity adjustment index for the international classification of diseases, 10

OBJECTIVE: To develop a Charlson-like comorbidity index based on clinical conditions and weights of the original Charlson comorbidity index. METHODS: Clinical conditions and weights were adapted from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision and applied to a single hospital admission diagnosis. The study included 3,733 patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to a public general hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil, between Jan 2001 and Jan 2003. The index distribution was analyzed by gender, type of admission, blood transfusion, intensive care unit admission, age and length of hospital stay. Two logistic regression models were developed to predict in-hospital mortality including: a) the aforementioned variables and the risk-adjustment index (full model); and b) the risk-adjustment index and patient's age (reduced model). RESULTS: Of all patients analyzed, 22.3% had risk scores >1, and their mortality rate was 4.5% (66.0% of them had scores >1). Except for gender and type of admission, all variables were retained in the logistic regression. The models including the developed risk index had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (full model), and 0.76 (reduced model). Each unit increase in the risk score was associated with nearly 50% increase in the odds of in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk index developed was able to effectively discriminate the odds of in-hospital death which can be useful when limited information is available from hospital databases.

Body mass index for predicting hyperglycemia and serum lipid changes in Brazilian adolescents

OBJECTIVE: To determine the best cut-offs of body mass index for identifying alterations of blood lipids and glucose in adolescents. METHODS: A probabilistic sample including 577 adolescent students aged 12-19 years in 2003 (210 males and 367 females) from state public schools in the city of Niterói, Southeastern Brazil, was studied. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to identify the best age-adjusted BMI cut-off for predicting high levels of serum total cholesterol (>150mg/dL), LDL-C (>100mg/dL), serum triglycerides (>100mg/dL), plasma glucose (>100mg/dL) and low levels of HDL-C (< 45mg/dL). Four references were used to calculate sensitivity and specificity of BMI cut-offs: one Brazilian, one international and two American. RESULTS: The most prevalent metabolic alterations (>50%) were: high total cholesterol and low HDL-C. BMI predicted high levels of triglycerides in males, high LDL-C in females, and high total cholesterol and the occurrence of three or more metabolic alterations in both males and females (areas under the curve range: 0.59 to 0.67), with low sensitivity (57%-66%) and low specificity (58%-66%). The best BMI cut-offs for this sample (20.3 kg/m² to 21.0 kg/m²) were lower than those proposed in the references studied. CONCLUSIONS: Although BMI values lower than the International cut-offs were better predictor of some metabolic abnormalities in Brazilian adolescents, overall BMI is not a good predictor of these abnormalities in this population.

Estimate of DMFT index using teeth most affected by dental caries in twelve-year-old children

The objective of the study was to develop regression models to describe the epidemiological profile of dental caries in 12-year-old children in an area of low prevalence of caries. Two distinct random probabilistic samples of schoolchildren (n=1,763) attending public and private schools in Piracicaba, Southeastern Brazil, were studied. Regression models were estimated as a function of the most affected teeth using data collected in 2005 and were validated using a 2001 database. The mean (SD) DMFT index was 1.7 (2.08) in 2001 and the regression equations estimated a DMFT index of 1.67 (1.98), which corresponds to 98.2% of the DMFT index in 2001. The study provided detailed data on the caries profile in 12-year-old children by using an updated analytical approach. Regression models can be an accurate and feasible method that can provide valuable information for the planning and evaluation of oral health services.