Model selection and the vectorial misspecification-resistant information criterion in multivariate time series

The thesis deals with the problem of Model Selection (MS) motivated by information and prediction theory, focusing on parametric time series (TS) models. The main contribution of the thesis is the extension to the multivariate case of the Misspecification-Resistant Information Criterion (MRIC), a criterion introduced recently that solves Akaike’s original research problem posed 50 years ago, which led to the definition of the AIC. The importance of MS is witnessed by the huge amount of literature devoted to it and published in scientific journals of many different disciplines. Despite such a widespread treatment, the contributions that adopt a mathematically rigorous approach are not so numerous and one of the aims of this project is to review and assess them. Chapter 2 discusses methodological aspects of MS from information theory. Information criteria (IC) for the i.i.d. setting are surveyed along with their asymptotic properties; and the cases of small samples, misspecification, further estimators. Chapter 3 surveys criteria for TS. IC and prediction criteria are considered for: univariate models (AR, ARMA) in the time and frequency domain, parametric multivariate (VARMA, VAR); nonparametric nonlinear (NAR); and high-dimensional models. The MRIC answers Akaike’s original question on efficient criteria, for possibly-misspecified (PM) univariate TS models in multi-step prediction with high-dimensional data and nonlinear models. Chapter 4 extends the MRIC to PM multivariate TS models for multi-step prediction introducing the Vectorial MRIC (VMRIC). We show that the VMRIC is asymptotically efficient by proving the decomposition of the MSPE matrix and the consistency of its Method-of-Moments Estimator (MoME), for Least Squares multi-step prediction with univariate regressor. Chapter 5 extends the VMRIC to the general multiple regressor case, by showing that the MSPE matrix decomposition holds, obtaining consistency for its MoME, and proving its efficiency. The chapter concludes with a digression on the conditions for PM VARX models.

Identification Of Corynebacterium Spp. Isolated From Bovine Intramammary Infections By Matrix-assisted Laser Desorption Ionization-time Of Flight Mass Spectrometry.

Corynebacterium species (spp.) are among the most frequently isolated pathogens associated with subclinical mastitis in dairy cows. However, simple, fast, and reliable methods for the identification of species of the genus Corynebacterium are not currently available. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization/mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) for identifying Corynebacterium spp. isolated from the mammary glands of dairy cows. Corynebacterium spp. were isolated from milk samples via microbiological culture (n=180) and were analyzed by MALDI-TOF MS and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Using MALDI-TOF MS methodology, 161 Corynebacterium spp. isolates (89.4%) were correctly identified at the species level, whereas 12 isolates (6.7%) were identified at the genus level. Most isolates that were identified at the species level with 16 S rRNA gene sequencing were identified as Corynebacterium bovis (n=156; 86.7%) were also identified as C. bovis with MALDI-TOF MS. Five Corynebacterium spp. isolates (2.8%) were not correctly identified at the species level with MALDI-TOF MS and 2 isolates (1.1%) were considered unidentified because despite having MALDI-TOF MS scores >2, only the genus level was correctly identified. Therefore, MALDI-TOF MS could serve as an alternative method for species-level diagnoses of bovine intramammary infections caused by Corynebacterium spp.

Neck Circumference As A New Anthropometric Indicator For Prediction Of Insulin Resistance And Components Of Metabolic Syndrome In Adolescents: Brazilian Metabolic Syndrome Study.

To evaluate the correlation between neck circumference and insulin resistance and components of metabolic syndrome in adolescents with different adiposity levels and pubertal stages, as well as to determine the usefulness of neck circumference to predict insulin resistance in adolescents. Cross-sectional study with 388 adolescents of both genders from ten to 19 years old. The adolescents underwent anthropometric and body composition assessment, including neck and waist circumferences, and biochemical evaluation. The pubertal stage was obtained by self-assessment, and the blood pressure, by auscultation. Insulin resistance was evaluated by the Homeostasis Model Assessment-Insulin Resistance. The correlation between two variables was evaluated by partial correlation coefficient adjusted for the percentage of body fat and pubertal stage. The performance of neck circumference to identify insulin resistance was tested by Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve. After the adjustment for percentage body fat and pubertal stage, neck circumference correlated with waist circumference, blood pressure, triglycerides and markers of insulin resistance in both genders. The results showed that the neck circumference is a useful tool for the detection of insulin resistance and changes in the indicators of metabolic syndrome in adolescents. The easiness of application and low cost of this measure may allow its use in Public Health services.

Evaluation Of Soft-tissue Lesions With (18)f-fdg Pet/ct: Initial Results Of A Prospective Trial.

Although MRI is utilized for planning the resection of soft-tissue tumors, it is not always capable of differentiating benign from malignant lesions. The risk of local recurrence of soft-tissue sarcomas is increased when biopsies are performed before resection and by inadequate resections. PET associated with computed tomography using fluorodeoxyglucose labeled with fluorine-18 ((18)F-FDG PET/CT) may help differentiate between benign and malignant tumors, thus avoiding inadequate resections and making prior biopsies unnecessary. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of (18)F-FDG PET/CT in differentiating benign from malignant solid soft-tissue lesions. Patients with solid lesions of the limbs or abdominal wall detected by MRI were submitted to (18)F-FDG PET/CT. The maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) cutoff was determined to differentiate malignant from benign tumors. Regardless of the (18)F-FDG PET/CT results all patients underwent biopsy and surgery. MRI was performed in 54 patients, and 10 patients were excluded because of purely lipomatose or cystic lesions. (18)F-FDG PET/CT was performed in the remaining 44 patients. Histopathology revealed 26 (59%) benign and 18 (41%) malignant soft-tissue lesions. A significant difference in SUVmax was observed between benign and malignant soft-tissue lesions. The SUVmax cutoff of 3.0 differentiated malignant from benign lesions with 100% sensitivity, 83.3% specificity, 89.6% accuracy, 78.3% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value. (18)F-FDG PET/CT seems to be able to differentiate benign from malignant soft-tissue lesions with good accuracy and very high negative predictive value. Incorporating (18)F-FDG PET/CT into the diagnostic algorithm of these patients may prevent inadequate resections and unnecessary biopsies.

[meanings Of The Sickening Process For Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Review Of The Literature.]

Systemic lupus erythematosus is an autoimmune disease that causes many psychological repercussions that have been studied through qualitative research. These are considered relevant, since they reveal the amplitude experienced by patients. Given this importance, this study aims to map the qualitative production in this theme, derived from studies of experiences of adult patients of both genders and that had used as a tool a semi-structured interview and/or field observations, and had made use of a sampling by a saturation criterion to determine the number of participants in each study. The survey was conducted in Pubmed, Lilacs, Psycinfo e Cochrane databases, searching productions in English and Portuguese idioms published between January 2005 and June 2012. The 19 revised papers that have dealt with patients in the acute phase of the disease showed themes that were categorized into eight topics that contemplated the experienced process at various stages, from the onset of the disease, extending through the knowledge of the diagnosis and the understanding of the manifestations of the disease, drug treatment and general care, evolution and prognosis. The collected papers also point to the difficulty of understanding, of the patients, on what consists the remission phase, revealing also that this is a clinical stage underexplored by psychological studies.

A Feasibility Study Of Fricke Dosimetry As An Absorbed Dose To Water Standard For 192ir Hdr Sources.

High dose rate brachytherapy (HDR) using 192Ir sources is well accepted as an important treatment option and thus requires an accurate dosimetry standard. However, a dosimetry standard for the direct measurement of the absolute dose to water for this particular source type is currently not available. An improved standard for the absorbed dose to water based on Fricke dosimetry of HDR 192Ir brachytherapy sources is presented in this study. The main goal of this paper is to demonstrate the potential usefulness of the Fricke dosimetry technique for the standardization of the quantity absorbed dose to water for 192Ir sources. A molded, double-walled, spherical vessel for water containing the Fricke solution was constructed based on the Fricke system. The authors measured the absorbed dose to water and compared it with the doses calculated using the AAPM TG-43 report. The overall combined uncertainty associated with the measurements using Fricke dosimetry was 1.4% for k = 1, which is better than the uncertainties reported in previous studies. These results are promising; hence, the use of Fricke dosimetry to measure the absorbed dose to water as a standard for HDR 192Ir may be possible in the future.

Evaluation Of The Location Of Capsules Swallowed With Food During The Pharyngeal Phase Triggering In Asymptomatic Adults.

To assess the location of hard gelatin capsules in the pharyngeal phase triggering among asymptomatic adults. The location of the bolus during the pharyngeal phase triggering provides information about the sensorimotor model of the beginning of deglutition onset. To evaluate the location of hard gelatin capsules in the pharyngeal phase triggering among asymptomatic adults. A videofluoroscopy swallowing study was carried out in 60 subjects (14 male and 46 female participants) aged between 27 and 55 years, who were evaluated with hard gelatin capsules #00 and #3 containing barium sulfate, swallowed with liquid food and pudding, in free volume. The first laryngeal elevation movement was the criterion to locate the pharyngeal phase triggering. Statistical analysis was based on the McNemar test. Capsule #3 presented higher percentage of location in the tongue dorsum compared to capsule #00, and capsule #00 presented higher percentage of location in the tongue base and vallecula compared to capsule #3. There was a difference between different capsules swallowed with liquid (p=0.016) and pudding (p=0.037). The capsule size influenced the location of the pharyngeal phase triggering. Smaller capsules started pharyngeal phase in the most anterior region (tongue dorsum) compared to larger capsules.

Ecological Literacy And Beyond: Problem-based Learning For Future Professionals.

Ecological science contributes to solving a broad range of environmental problems. However, lack of ecological literacy in practice often limits application of this knowledge. In this paper, we highlight a critical but often overlooked demand on ecological literacy: to enable professionals of various careers to apply scientific knowledge when faced with environmental problems. Current university courses on ecology often fail to persuade students that ecological science provides important tools for environmental problem solving. We propose problem-based learning to improve the understanding of ecological science and its usefulness for real-world environmental issues that professionals in careers as diverse as engineering, public health, architecture, social sciences, or management will address. Courses should set clear learning objectives for cognitive skills they expect students to acquire. Thus, professionals in different fields will be enabled to improve environmental decision-making processes and to participate effectively in multidisciplinary work groups charged with tackling environmental issues.

Impact Of Drug Formulation And Free Platinum/cisplatin Ratio On Hypersensitivity Reactions To Cisplatin: Formulation Matters.

Use of cisplatin can induce type I hypersensitivity reactions that may also be linked to the quality of the drug utilized. We observed cases of hypersensitivity that appeared to be associated with the brand of cisplatin used. The aim of this study was to compare two different brands of cisplatin in relation to type I hypersensitivity reactions. Brand A was used in a tertiary care teaching hospital until 2012, and use of brand B started from January 2013, when the first hypersensitivity cases were observed. Patients were categorized based on symptom. Cisplatin of both brands was analysed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and high-resolution electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-(+)-MS) and characterized according to US Pharmacopeia. There were no cases of hypersensitivity associated with the use of cisplatin brand A, whereas four of 127 outpatients that used cisplatin brand B were affected. The two brands were in accordance with the US Pharmacopeia parameters, and there was no significant difference in the total platinum levels between the two brands when analysed by HPLC. However, high-resolution ESI-(+)-MS analyses show that brand B contains approximately 2.7 times more hydrolysed cisplatin than brand A. The increase in the hydrolysed form of cisplatin found in brand B may be the cause of the hypersensitivity reaction observed in a subset of patients. We present the first study of the quality of drugs by high-resolution ESI-(+)-MS. Drug regulatory agencies and manufacturers should consider including measurement of hydrolysed cisplatin as a quality criterion for cisplatin formulations.

Estudo vídeo-polissonográfico em recém-nascidos de termo pequenos para a idade gestacional

Video-polygraphic-EEG studies were performed in the first 24 life-hours of 26 healthy full-term newborns without perinatal injuries. The neurological examination and cranial ultrasonography were normal. The newborns were divided into two groups: one, with full-term appropriate - birth weight 11 newborns (control group ) and the other with full-term low-birth weight 15 newborns. Thirteen newborns of the second group had video-polygraphic-EEG study abnormalities. The most frequent abnormalities were found in 11 cases, as far as sleep architecture is concerned. Also, when compared with the control group, 8 cases of an excessive amount of startles and 2 cases of low behavior activities were found. The results demonstrate the usefulness of video-polygraphic-EEG study in the full-term newborns with intra-uterine growth retard. This examination was sensitive to detect behavior, sleep architecture and EEG standard differences in the low birth-weight newborns as to the control group.

Vasopressina e morte encefálica

Brain death results in the breakdown of effective central regulatory mechanisms of cardiocirculatory stability, even in patients with artificial mechanical ventilation, correction of electrolytic and acid-basic disorders and maximal conventional pharmacological support of the circulation. Recent evidences have shown that the fall of vasopressin levels in the blood circulation significantly influences the cardiocirculatory stability of patients with brain death, and its exogenous administration is defended by many authors for the management of multiorgan donor patients. In this brief review we analyse and discuss some experimental and clinical relevant studies about the role of vasopressin in the control of cardiocirculatory stability in brain death, and its potential usefulness in the management of multiorgan donor. We conclude that the role of vasopressin in the pathophysiology of brain death and its usefulness as a pharmacological agent in the management of multiorgan donor are not well elucidated, deserving further investigations.

The G209A mutation in the alpha-synuclein gene in Brazilian families with Parkinson's disease

A missense G209A mutation of the alpha-synuclein gene was recently described in a large Contursi kindred with Parkinson's disease (PD). The objective of this study is to determine if the mutation G209A of the alpha-synuclein gene was present in 10 Brazilian families with PD. PD patients were recruited from movement disorders clinics of Brazil. A family history with two or more affected in relatives was the inclusion criterion for this study. The alpha-synuclein G209A mutation assay was made using polymerase chain reaction and the restriction enzyme Tsp45I. Ten patients from 10 unrelated families were studied. The mean age of PD onset was 42.7 years old. We did not find the G209A mutation in our 10 families with PD. Our results suggest that alpha-synuclein mutation G209A is uncommon in Brazilian PD families.

Montagem de uma disciplina experimental: contribuição para a química geral

The purpose of this paper is to present a classification criterion for general chemistry experiments departing from a survey of 35 years of the experimental general chemistry discipline at the Chemistry Institute - UNICAMP. It is shown that by considering the most remarkable characteristics of an experiment and classifying it under Conceptual, Fundamental, Methodological or Quantitative criterion, teachers could better develop the discipline plan and prevent a subject superposition. Taking into account the system Fe3+/SCN- , the article also exemplify how is possible to modify an experimental approach and to conceive other procedures with different didactic purposes.

Modelo dinâmico de simulação e otimização da força normal de reação do solo para um mecanismo de corte basal

The physical model was based on the method of Newton-Euler. The model was developed by using the scientific computer program Mathematica®. Several simulations where tried varying the progress speeds (0.69; 1.12; 1.48; 1.82 and 2.12 m s-1); soil profiles (sinoidal, ascending and descending ramp) and height of the profile (0.025 and 0.05 m) to obtain the normal force of soil reaction. After the initial simulations, the mechanism was optimized using the scientific computer program Matlab® having as criterion (function-objective) the minimization of the normal force of reaction of the profile (FN). The project variables were the lengths of the bars (L1y, L2, l3 and L4), height of the operation (L7), the initial length of the spring (Lmo) and the elastic constant of the spring (k t). The lack of robustness of the mechanism in relation to the variable height of the operation was outlined by using a spring with low rigidity and large length. The results demonstrated that the mechanism optimized showed better flotation performance in relation to the initial mechanism.

Uma observação sobre o lugar da teoria da ligação e do critério temático dentro do programa minimalista

In this paper I present some evidencie that forces us to conclude that within the Minimalist Program (Chomsky 1993; 1995), Binding Theory (BT) should be computed after LF (Logical Form). I show that derivations leading to structures containing violations of BT-Principles must converge at LF, since less economical alternative derivations respecting those principles are also ungrammatical. Being irrelevant to the notion of convergence, BT must apply after LF. A similar reasoning reveals that the Theta-Criterion should have the status of a bare output condition appling at LF, since less economical derivations are allowed by the computational system to prevent violations of it.