Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution

Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes.

An idealized study of coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var in the presence of model error

Atmosphere only and ocean only variational data assimilation (DA) schemes are able to use window lengths that are optimal for the error growth rate, non-linearity and observation density of the respective systems. Typical window lengths are 6-12 hours for the atmosphere and 2-10 days for the ocean. However, in the implementation of coupled DA schemes it has been necessary to match the window length of the ocean to that of the atmosphere, which may potentially sacrifice the accuracy of the ocean analysis in order to provide a more balanced coupled state. This paper investigates how extending the window length in the presence of model error affects both the analysis of the coupled state and the initialized forecast when using coupled DA with differing degrees of coupling. Results are illustrated using an idealized single column model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. It is found that the analysis error from an uncoupled DA scheme can be smaller than that from a coupled analysis at the initial time, due to faster error growth in the coupled system. However, this does not necessarily lead to a more accurate forecast due to imbalances in the coupled state. Instead coupled DA is more able to update the initial state to reduce the impact of the model error on the accuracy of the forecast. The effect of model error is potentially most detrimental in the weakly coupled formulation due to the inconsistency between the coupled model used in the outer loop and uncoupled models used in the inner loop.

On S-matrix factorization of the Landau-Lifshitz model

We consider the three-particle scattering S-matrix for the Landau-Lifshitz model by directly computing the set of the Feynman diagrams up to the second order. We show, following the analogous computations for the non-linear Schrdinger model [1, 2], that the three-particle S-matrix is factorizable in the first non-trivial order.

The Bullough-Dodd model coupled to matter fields

The Bullough-Dodd model is an important two-dimensional integrable field theory which finds applications in physics and geometry. We consider a conformally invariant extension of it, and study its integrability properties using a zero curvature condition based on the twisted Kac-Moody algebra A(2)((2)). The one- and two-soliton solutions as well as the breathers are constructed explicitly. We also consider integrable extensions of the Bullough-Dodd model by the introduction of spinor (matter) fields. The resulting theories are conformally invariant and present local internal symmetries. All the one-soliton solutions, for two examples of those models, are constructed using a hybrid of the dressing and Hirota methods. One model is of particular interest because it presents a confinement mechanism for a given conserved charge inside the solitons. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linear covariant gauges on the lattice

Linear covariant gauges, such as Feynman gauge, are very useful in perturbative calculations. Their non-perturbative formulation is, however, highly non-trivial. In particular, it is a challenge to define linear covariant gauges on a lattice. We consider a class of gauges in lattice gauge theory that coincides with the perturbative definition of linear covariant gauges in the formal continuum limit. The corresponding gauge-fixing procedure is described and analyzed in detail, with an application to the pure SU(2) case. In addition, results for the gluon propagator in the two-dimensional case are given. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The disk-percolation model on graphs

We study a long-range percolation model whose dynamics describe the spreading of an infection on an infinite graph. We obtain a sufficient condition for phase transition and prove all upper bound for the critical parameter of spherically symmetric trees. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pupils' Interaction with the Exhibits According to the Learning Behaviour Model

Science centres are one of the best opportunities for informal study of natural science. There are many advantages to learn in the science centres compared with the traditional methods: it is possible to motivate and supply visitors with the social experience, to improve people’s understandings and attitudes, thereby bringing on and attaching wider interest towards natural science. In the science centres, pupils show interest, enthusiasm, motivation, self-confidence, sensitiveness and also they are more open and eager to learn. Traditional school-classes however mostly do not favour these capabilities. This research presents the qualitative study in the science centre. Data was gathered from observations and interviews at Science North science centre in Canada. Pupils’ learning behaviours were studied at different exhibits in the science centre. Learning behaviours are classified as follows: labels reading, experimenting with the exhibits, observing others or exhibit, using guide, repeating the activity, positive emotional response, acknowledged relevance, seeking and sharing information. In this research, it became clear that in general pupils do not read labels; in most cases pupils do not use the guides help; pupils prefer exhibits that enable high level of interactivity; pupils display more learning behaviours at exhibits that enable a high level of interactivity.

Chinese Basic Pension Substitution Rate: A Monte Carlo Demonstration of the Individual Account Model

At the end of 2005, the State Council of China passed ”The Decision on adjusting the Individual Account of Basic Pension System”, which adjusted the individual account in the 1997 basic pension system. In this essay, we will analyze the adjustment above, and use Life Annuity Actuarial Theory to establish the basic pension substitution rate model. Monte Carlo simulation is also used to prove the rationality of the model. Some suggestions are put forward associated with the substitution rate according to the current policy.