A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework

In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. in this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coronary reserve impairment prevents the improvement of left ventricular dysfunction and adversely affects the long-term outcome of patients with hypertensive dilated cardiomyopathy

In hypertension, left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy develops as an adaptive mechanism to compensate for increased afterload and thus preserve systolic function. Associated structural changes such as microvascular disease might potentially interfere with this mechanism, producing pathological hypertrophy. A poorer outcome is expected to occur when LV function is put in jeopardy by impaired coronary reserve. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of coronary reserve in the long-term outcome of patients with hypertensive dilated cardiomyopathy. Between 1996 and 2000, 45 patients, 30 of them male, with 52 +/- 11 years and LV fractional shortening <30% were enrolled and followed until 2006. Coronary flow velocity reserve was assessed by transesophageal Doppler of the left anterior descending coronary artery. Sixteen patients showed >= 10% improvement in LV fractional shortening after 17 +/- 6 months. Coronary reserve was the only variable independently related to this improvement. Total mortality was 38% in 10 years. The Cox model identified coronary reserve (hazard ratio = 0.814; 95% CI = 0.72-0.92), LV mass, low diastolic blood pressure, and male gender as independent predictors of mortality. In hypertensive dilated cardiomyopathy, coronary reserve impairment adversely affects survival, possibly by interfering with the improvement of LV dysfunction. J Am Soc Hypertens 2010;4(1):14-21. (C) 2010 American Society of Hypertension. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Long-term Survival Model Parametrized in the Cured Fraction

The main goal of this paper is to investigate a cure rate model that comprehends some well-known proposals found in the literature. In our work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. The model is conveniently reparametrized through the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates by means of the logistic link. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in the proposed model. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

On the unification of long-term survival models

In this paper we extend the long-term survival model proposed by Chen et al. [Chen, M.-H., Ibrahim, J.G., Sinha, D., 1999. A new Bayesian model for survival data with a surviving fraction. journal of the American Statistical Association 94, 909-919] via the generating function of a real sequence introduced by Feller [Feller, W., 1968. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, third ed., vol. 1, Wiley, New York]. A direct consequence of this new formulation is the unification of the long-term survival models proposed by Berkson and Gage [Berkson, J., Gage, R.P., 1952. Survival cure for cancer patients following treatment. journal of the American Statistical Association 47, 501-515] and Chen et al. (see citation above). Also, we show that the long-term survival function formulated in this paper satisfies the proportional hazards property if, and only if, the number of competing causes related to the occurrence of an event of interest follows a Poisson distribution. Furthermore, a more flexible model than the one proposed by Yin and Ibrahim [Yin, G., Ibrahim, J.G., 2005. Cure rate models: A unified approach. The Canadian journal of Statistics 33, 559-570] is introduced and, motivated by Feller`s results, a very useful competing index is defined. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis for a skew extension of the multivariate null intercept measurement error model

Skew-normal distribution is a class of distributions that includes the normal distributions as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in a multivariate, null intercept, measurement error model [R. Aoki, H. Bolfarine, J.A. Achcar, and D. Leao Pinto Jr, Bayesian analysis of a multivariate null intercept error-in -variables regression model, J. Biopharm. Stat. 13(4) (2003b), pp. 763-771] where the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a skew-normal distribution. The results and methods are applied to a real dental clinical trial presented in [A. Hadgu and G. Koch, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial, J. Biopharm. Stat. 9 (1999), pp. 161-178].

Characterization of the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols in Amazonia from long-term AERONET monitoring (1993-1995 and 1999-2006)

We present a new climatology of atmospheric aerosols (primarily pyrogenic and biogenic) for the Brazilian tropics on the basis of a high-quality data set of spectral aerosol optical depth and directional sky radiance measurements from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Cimel Sun-sky radiometers at more than 15 sites distributed across the Amazon basin and adjacent Cerrado region. This network is the only long-term project (with a record including observations from more than 11 years at some locations) ever to have provided ground-based remotely-sensed column aerosol properties for this critical region. Distinctive features of the Amazonian area aerosol are presented by partitioning the region into three aerosol regimes: southern Amazonian forest, Cerrado, and northern Amazonian forest. The monitoring sites generally include measurements from the interval 1999-2006, but some sites have measurement records that date back to the initial days of the AERONET program in 1993. Seasonal time series of aerosol optical depth (AOD), angstrom ngstrom exponent, and columnar-averaged microphysical properties of the aerosol derived from sky radiance inversion techniques (single-scattering albedo, volume size distribution, fine mode fraction of AOD, etc.) are described and contrasted for the defined regions. During the wet season, occurrences of mineral dust penetrating deep into the interior were observed.

Long-term oscillations in the sleep/wake cycle of infants

The development of circadian sleep-wakefulness rhythm was investigated by a longitudinal study of six normal infants. We propose an entropy based measure for the sleep/wake cycle fragmentation. Our results confirm that the sleep/wake cycle fragmentation and the sleep/wake ratio decrease, while the circadian power increases during the maturation process of infants. In addition to these expected linear trends in the variables devised to quantify sleep consolidation, circadian power and sleep/wake ratio, we found that they present infradian rhythms in the monthly range. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Static Hopfions in the extended Skyrme-Faddeev model

We construct static soliton solutions with non-zero Hopf topological charges to a theory which is an extension of the Skyrme-Faddeev model by the addition of a further quartic term in derivatives. We use an axially symmetric ansatz based on toroidal coordinates, and solve the resulting two coupled non-linear partial differential equations in two variables by a successive over-relaxation (SOR) method. We construct numerical solutions with Hopf charge up to four, and calculate their analytical behavior in some limiting cases. The solutions present an interesting behavior under the changes of a special combination of the coupling constants of the quartic terms. Their energies and sizes tend to zero as that combination approaches a particular special value. We calculate the equivalent of the Vakulenko and Kapitanskii energy bound for the theory and find that it vanishes at that same special value of the coupling constants. In addition, the model presents an integrable sector with an in finite number of local conserved currents which apparently are not related to symmetries of the action. In the intersection of those two special sectors the theory possesses exact vortex solutions (static and time dependent) which were constructed in a previous paper by one of the authors. It is believed that such model describes some aspects of the low energy limit of the pure SU(2) Yang-Mills theory, and our results may be important in identifying important structures in that strong coupling regime.

Long-term follow-up of topical 5-aminolaevulinic acid photodynamic therapy diode laser single session for non-melanoma skin cancer

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is based on the association of a light source and tight sensitive agents in order to cause the selective death of tumor cells. To evaluate topical 5-aminolaevulinic acid (5-ALA) and diode laser photodynamic single session therapy single session for non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), a long-term follow-up was performed. Nineteen Bowen`s disease (BD) and 15 basal cell. carcinoma (BCC) lesions were submitted to 6-h topical and occlusive 20% 5-ALA plus DMSO and EDTA, and later were exposed to 630 nm diode laser, 100 or 300 J cm(-2) dose. At 3 months tumor-free rate was 91.2% (31/34) whereas at 60 months, 57.7% (15/26), slightly higher in BCC (63.6%; 7/11). The relation between the reduction of the clinical response and the increase of tumor dimension observed at 18 months was lost at 60 months. The sBCC recurrence was earlier compared to the nBCC one. ALA-PDT offered important advantages: it is minimally invasive, an option for patients under risk of surgical complications; clinical feasibility; treatment of multiple lesions in only one session or lesions in poor heating sites and superior esthetical results. However, the recurrence rate increase after ALA-PDT diode laser single session can be observed at tong-term follow-up, and the repetitive sessions, an additional. advantage of the method, is strongly recommended. The clinical response and recurrence time seem to be related to the laser light dose and NMSC types/sub-types, thickness and dimension, which must be considered for the choice of the ALA-PDT. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exact vortex solutions in an extended Skyrme-Faddeev model

We construct exact vortex solutions in 3+1 dimensions to a theory which is an extension, due to Gies, of the Skyrme-Faddeev model, and that is believed to describe some aspects of the low energy limit of the pure SU(2) Yang-Mills theory. Despite the efforts in the last decades those are the first exact analytical solutions to be constructed for such type of theory. The exact vortices appear in a very particular sector of the theory characterized by special values of the coupling constants, and by a constraint that leads to an infinite number of conserved charges. The theory is scale invariant in that sector, and the solutions satisfy Bogomolny type equations. The energy of the static vortex is proportional to its topological charge, and waves can travel with the speed of light along them, adding to the energy a term proportional to a U(1) No ether charge they create. We believe such vortices may play a role in the strong coupling regime of the pure SU(2) Yang-Mills theory.

Thermochronology of central Ribeira Fold Belt, SE Brazil: Petrological and geochronological evidence for long-term high temperature maintenance during Western Gondwana amalgamation

The studied sector of the central Ribeira Fold Belt (SE Brazil) comprises metatexites, diatexites, charnockites and blastomylonites. This study integrates petrological and thermochronological data in order to constrain the thermotectonic and geodynamic evolution of this Neoproterozoic-Ordovician mobile belt during Western Gondwana amalgamation. New data indicate that after an earlier collision stage at similar to 610 Ma (zircon, U-Pb age), peak metamorphism and lower crust partial melting, coeval with the main regional high grade D(1) thrust deformation, occurred at 572-562 Ma (zircon, U-Pb ages). The overall average cooling rate was low (<5 degrees C/Ma) from 750 to 250 degrees C (at similar to 455 Ma; biotite-WR Rb-Sr age), but disparate cooling paths indicate differential uplift between distinct lithotypes: (a) metatexites and blastomylonites show a overall stable 3-5 degrees C/Ma cooling rate; (b) charnockites and associated rocks remained at T>650 degrees C during sub-horizontal D(2) shearing until similar to 510-470 Ma (garnet-WR Sm-Nd ages) (1-2 degrees C/Ma), being then rapidly exhumed/cooled (8-30 degrees C/Ma) during post-orogenic D(3) deformation with late granite emplacement at similar to 490 Ma (zircon, U-Pb age). Cooling rates based on garnet-biotite Fe-Mg diffusion are broadly consistent with the geochronological cooling rates: (a) metatexites were cooled faster at high temperatures (6 degrees C/Ma) and slowly at low temperatures (0.1 degrees C/Ma), decreasing cooling rates with time; (b) charnockites show low cooling rates (2 degrees C/Ma) near metamorphic peak conditions and high cooling rates (120 degrees C/Ma) at lower temperatures, increasing cooling rates during retrogression. The charnockite thermal evolution and the extensive production of granitoid melts in the area imply that high geothermal gradients were sustained fora long period of time (50-90 Ma). This thermal anomaly most likely reflects upwelling of asthenospheric mantle and magma underplating coupled with long-term generation of high HPE (heat producing elements) granitoids. These factors must have sustained elevated crustal geotherms for similar to 100 Ma, promoting widespread charnockite generation at middle to lower crustal levels. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geology and geochronology of the Betara region in south-southeastern Brazil: Evidence for possible Statherian (1.80-1.75 Ga) and Calymmian (1.50-1.45 Ga) extension events

The results of geological mapping, chemical analysis and radiometric dating of metabasic rocks of Betara Formation, and mapping and dating of those present in the Betara basement nucleus together with mylonitic granodiorite and syenogranite are reported here. U-Pb analysis of bulk zircon fractions from the metabasic rocks of the basement nucleus yielded a Statherian age of 1790 +/- 22 Ma, while the metabasic rocks from the upper part of the Betara Formation yielded a Calymmian age between 1500 and 1450 Ma. This age is a minimum for the deposition of the Betara Formation. The older metabasic rocks are associated with post-tectonic, possibly anorogenic syenogranite, while the younger ones are gabbro or very porphyritic ankaramite whose REE patterns are consistent with crystallization from an N-MORB parent magma. The observations and data point to the probable events associated with extensional processes of the end of Paleoproterozoic and early Mesoproterozoic. Similar registers of Statherian (1.80-1.75 Ga) and Calymmian (1.50-1.45 Ga) extensional events are recorded in other parts of the South American and African continents. The Neoproterozoic witnessed the formation and junction of the tectonic slices which formed the Apiai domain during the assemblage of western Gondwana. (C) 2010 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bimodal extension based on the skew-normal distribution with application to pollen data

This paper considers an extension to the skew-normal model through the inclusion of an additional parameter which can lead to both uni- and bi-modal distributions. The paper presents various basic properties of this family of distributions and provides a stochastic representation which is useful for obtaining theoretical properties and to simulate from the distribution. Moreover, the singularity of the Fisher information matrix is investigated and maximum likelihood estimation for a random sample with no covariates is considered. The main motivation is thus to avoid using mixtures in fitting bimodal data as these are well known to be complicated to deal with, particularly because of identifiability problems. Data-based illustrations show that such model can be useful. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Inference for a skew extension of the Grubbs model

In this paper, we discuss inferential aspects for the Grubbs model when the unknown quantity x (latent response) follows a skew-normal distribution, extending early results given in Arellano-Valle et al. (J Multivar Anal 96:265-281, 2005b). Maximum likelihood parameter estimates are computed via the EM-algorithm. Wald and likelihood ratio type statistics are used for hypothesis testing and we explain the apparent failure of the Wald statistics in detecting skewness via the profile likelihood function. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated with a numerical example.

An extension of the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

In this paper we present an extension of the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution family introduced in [Diaz-Garcia, J.A., Leiva-Sanchez, V., 2005. A new family of life distributions based on the contoured elliptically distributions. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 128 (2), 445-457] with a view to make it even more flexible in terms of its kurtosis coefficient. Properties involving moments and asymmetry and kurtosis indexes are studied for some special members of this family such as the slash Birnbaum-Saunders and slash-t Birnbaum-Saunders. Simulation studies for some particular cases and a real data analysis are also reported, illustrating the usefulness of the extension considered. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.