Bayesian statistical analysis of bacterial diversity

Bacteria play an important role in many ecological systems. The molecular characterization of bacteria using either cultivation-dependent or cultivation-independent methods reveals the large scale of bacterial diversity in natural communities, and the vastness of subpopulations within a species or genus. Understanding how bacterial diversity varies across different environments and also within populations should provide insights into many important questions of bacterial evolution and population dynamics. This thesis presents novel statistical methods for analyzing bacterial diversity using widely employed molecular fingerprinting techniques. The first objective of this thesis was to develop Bayesian clustering models to identify bacterial population structures. Bacterial isolates were identified using multilous sequence typing (MLST), and Bayesian clustering models were used to explore the evolutionary relationships among isolates. Our method involves the inference of genetic population structures via an unsupervised clustering framework where the dependence between loci is represented using graphical models. The population dynamics that generate such a population stratification were investigated using a stochastic model, in which homologous recombination between subpopulations can be quantified within a gene flow network. The second part of the thesis focuses on cluster analysis of community compositional data produced by two different cultivation-independent analyses: terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis, and fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analysis. The cluster analysis aims to group bacterial communities that are similar in composition, which is an important step for understanding the overall influences of environmental and ecological perturbations on bacterial diversity. A common feature of T-RFLP and FAME data is zero-inflation, which indicates that the observation of a zero value is much more frequent than would be expected, for example, from a Poisson distribution in the discrete case, or a Gaussian distribution in the continuous case. We provided two strategies for modeling zero-inflation in the clustering framework, which were validated by both synthetic and empirical complex data sets. We show in the thesis that our model that takes into account dependencies between loci in MLST data can produce better clustering results than those methods which assume independent loci. Furthermore, computer algorithms that are efficient in analyzing large scale data were adopted for meeting the increasing computational need. Our method that detects homologous recombination in subpopulations may provide a theoretical criterion for defining bacterial species. The clustering of bacterial community data include T-RFLP and FAME provides an initial effort for discovering the evolutionary dynamics that structure and maintain bacterial diversity in the natural environment.

Stresses and Displacements under a Flexible Circular Foundation in the Presence of Friction or Adhesion

Die Vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit den Spannungen und Verschiebungen an einem elastischen Halbraum unter einem kreisförmigen biegsamen Fundament, wenn an der Kontaktfläche vollkommenes Haften besteht. Das gemischte Randwertproblem wird mit Hilfe von Hankel-Transformationen auf duale Integralgleichungen von Titchmarsh- Typ zurückgeführt. Für die Berechnung der Spannungen und Verschiebungen werden Gaußsche Quadraturformeln benutzt. Die Ergebnisse werden mit denen verglichen, die man bei glattem Fundament erhält, und der Einfluß der Poisson-Zahl auf die Spannungen und Verschiebungen wird deutlich gemacht. Schließlich werden die Ergebnisse für den praktischen Gebrauch in Diagrammen und Tabellen zusammengefaßt.

Influence of Joint Thickness and Mortar-Block Elastic Properties on the Strength and Stresses Developed in Soil-Cement Block Masonry

Soil-cement blocks are employed for load bearing masonry buildings. This paper deals with the study on the influence of bed joint thickness and elastic properties of the soil-cement blocks, and the mortar on the strength and behavior of soil-cement block masonry prisms. Influence of joint thickness on compressive strength has been examined through an experimental program. The nature of stresses developed and their distribution, in the block and the mortar of the soil-cement block masonry prism under compression, has been analyzed by an elastic analysis using FEM. Influence of various parameters like joint thickness, ratio of block to mortar modulus, and Poisson's ratio of the block and the mortar are considered in FEM analysis. Some of the major conclusions of the study are: (1) masonry compressive strength is sensitive to the ratio of modulus of block to that of the mortar (Eb/Em) and masonry compressive strength decreases as the mortar joint thickness is increased for the case where the ratio of block to mortar modulus is more than 1; (2) the lateral tensile stresses developed in the masonry unit are sensitive to the Eb/Em ratio and the Poisson's ratio of mortar and the masonry unit; and (3) lateral stresses developed in the masonry unit are more sensitive to the Poisson's ratio of the mortar than the Poisson's ratio of the masonry unit.

Development of a transient gradient enhanced non local continuum damage mechanics model for masonry

Due to the advent of varied types of masonry systems a comprehensive failure mechanism of masonry essential for the understanding of its behaviour is impossible to be determined from experimental testing. As masonry is predominantly used in wall structures a biaxial stress state dominates its failure mechanism. Biaxial testing will therefore be necessary for each type of masonry, which is expensive and time consuming. A computational method would be advantageous; however masonry is complex to model which requires advanced computational modelling methods. This thesis has formulated a damage mechanics inspired modelling method and has shown that the method effectively determines the failure mechanisms and deformation characteristics of masonry under biaxial states of loading.

Calculations of the free energy of interaction of the c-Fos−c-Jun coiled coil: Effects of the solvation model and the inclusion of polarization effects

The leucine zipper region of activator protein-1 (AP-1) comprises the c-Jun and c-Fos proteins and constitutes a well-known coiled coil protein−protein interaction motif. We have used molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in conjunction with the molecular mechanics/Poisson−Boltzmann generalized-Born surface area [MM/PB(GB)SA] methods to predict the free energy of interaction of these proteins. In particular, the influence of the choice of solvation model, protein force field, and water potential on the stability and dynamic properties of the c-Fos−c-Jun complex were investigated. Use of the AMBER polarizable force field ff02 in combination with the polarizable POL3 water potential was found to result in increased stability of the c-Fos−c-Jun complex. MM/PB(GB)SA calculations revealed that MD simulations using the POL3 water potential give the lowest predicted free energies of interaction compared to other nonpolarizable water potentials. In addition, the calculated absolute free energy of binding was predicted to be closest to the experimental value using the MM/GBSA method with independent MD simulation trajectories using the POL3 water potential and the polarizable ff02 force field, while all other binding affinities were overestimated.

Reduced incidence of foot-related hospitalisation and amputation amongst persons with diabetes in Queensland, Australia

Objective To determine trends in the incidence of foot-related hospitalisation and amputation amongst persons with diabetes in Queensland (Australia) between 2005 and 2010 that coincided with changes in state-wide ambulatory diabetic foot-related complication management. Methods All data from cases admitted for the principal reason of diabetes foot-related hospitalisation or amputation in Queensland from 2005–2010 were obtained from the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patient Data Collection dataset. Incidence rates for foot-related hospitalisation (admissions, bed days used) and amputation (total, minor, major) cases amongst persons with diabetes were calculated per 1,000 person-years with diabetes (diabetes population) and per 100,000 person-years (general population). Age-sex standardised incidence and age-sex adjusted Poisson regression models were also calculated for the general population. Results There were 4,443 amputations, 24,917 hospital admissions and 260,085 bed days used for diabetes foot-related complications in Queensland. Incidence per 1,000 person-years with diabetes decreased from 2005 to 2010: 43.0% for hospital admissions (36.6 to 20.9), 40.1% bed days (391 to 234), 40.0% total amputations (6.47 to 3.88), 45.0% major amputations (2.18 to 1.20), 37.5% minor amputations (4.29 to 2.68) (p < 0.01 respectively). Age-sex standardised incidence per 100,000 person-years in the general population also decreased from 2005 to 2010: 23.3% hospital admissions (105.1 to 80.6), 19.5% bed days (1,122 to 903), 19.3% total amputations (18.57 to 14.99), 26.4% major amputations (6.26 to 4.61), 15.7% minor amputations (12.32 to 10.38) (p < 0.01 respectively). The age-sex adjusted incidence rates per calendar year decreased in the general population (rate ratio (95% CI)); hospital admissions 0.949 (0.942–0.956), bed days 0.964 (0.962–0.966), total amputations 0.962 (0.946–0.979), major amputations 0.945 (0.917–0.974), minor amputations 0.970 (0.950–0.991) (p < 0.05 respectively). Conclusions There were significant reductions in the incidence of foot-related hospitalisation and amputation amongst persons with diabetes in the population of Queensland over a recent six-year period.

A New Threshold Voltage Model for Omega Gate Cylindrical Nanowire Transistor

In this work, for the first time, we present a physically based analytical threshold voltage model for omega gate silicon nanowire transistor. This model is developed for long channel cylindrical body structure. The potential distribution at each and every point of the of the wire is derived with a closed form solution of two dimensional Poisson's equation, which is then used to model the threshold voltage. Proposed model can be treated as a generalized model, which is valid for both surround gate and semi-surround gate cylindrical transistors. The accuracy of proposed model is verified for different device geometry against the results obtained from three dimensional numerical device simulators and close agreement is observed.

Asymptotic analysis for the coupled wavenumbers in an infinite fluid-filled flexible cylindrical shell: The axisymmetric mode

The coupled wavenumbers of a fluid-filled flexible cylindrical shell vibrating in the axisymmetric mode are studied. The coupled dispersion equation of the system is rewritten in the form of the uncoupled dispersion equation of the structure and the acoustic fluid, with an added fluid-loading term involving a parameter e due to the coupling. Using the smallness of Poisson's ratio (v), a double-asymptotic expansion involving e and v 2 is substituted in this equation. Analytical expressions are derived for the coupled wavenumbers (for large and small values of E). Different asymptotic expansions are used for different frequency ranges with continuous transitions occurring between them. The wavenumber solutions are continuously tracked as e varies from small to large values. A general trend observed is that a given wavenumber branch transits from a rigidwalled solution to a pressure-release solution with increasing E. Also, it is found that at any frequency where two wavenumbers intersect in the uncoupled analysis, there is no more an intersection in the coupled case, but a gap is created at that frequency. Only the axisymmetric mode is considered. However, the method can be extended to the higher order modes.

Modelling of solute transport in a mild heterogeneous porous medium using stochastic finite element method: Effects of random source conditions

Randomness in the source condition other than the heterogeneity in the system parameters can also be a major source of uncertainty in the concentration field. Hence, a more general form of the problem formulation is necessary to consider randomness in both source condition and system parameters. When the source varies with time, the unsteady problem, can be solved using the unit response function. In the case of random system parameters, the response function becomes a random function and depends on the randomness in the system parameters. In the present study, the source is modelled as a random discrete process with either a fixed interval or a random interval (the Poisson process). In this study, an attempt is made to assess the relative effects of various types of source uncertainties on the probabilistic behaviour of the concentration in a porous medium while the system parameters are also modelled as random fields. Analytical expressions of mean and covariance of concentration due to random discrete source are derived in terms of mean and covariance of unit response function. The probabilistic behaviour of the random response function is obtained by using a perturbation-based stochastic finite element method (SFEM), which performs well for mild heterogeneity. The proposed method is applied for analysing both the 1-D as well as the 3-D solute transport problems. The results obtained with SFEM are compared with the Monte Carlo simulation for 1-D problems.

Studies on the Cell Wall Structure and on the Mechanical Properties of Norway Spruce

The structure and the mechanical properties of wood of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) were studied using small samples from Finland and Sweden. X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to determine the orientation of cellulose microfibrils (microfibril angle, MFA), the dimensions of cellulose crystallites and the average shape of the cell cross-section. X-ray attenuation and x-ray fluorescence measurements were used to study the chemical composition and the trace element content. Tensile testing with in situ XRD was used to characterise the mechanical properties of wood and the deformation of crystalline cellulose within the wood cell walls. Cellulose crystallites were found to be 192 284 Å long and 28.9 33.4 Å wide in chemically untreated wood and they were longer and wider in mature wood than in juvenile wood. The MFA distribution of individual Norway spruce tracheids and larger samples was asymmetric. In individual cell walls, the mean MFA was 19 30 degrees, while the mode of the MFA distribution was 7 21 degrees. Both the mean MFA and the mode of the MFA distribution decreased as a function of the annual ring. Tangential cell walls exhibited smaller mean MFA and mode of the MFA distribution than radial cell walls. Maceration of wood material caused narrowing of the MFA distribution and removed contributions observed at around 90 degrees. In wood of both untreated and fertilised trees, the average shape of the cell cross-section changed from circular via ambiguous to rectangular as the cambial age increased. The average shape of the cell cross-section and the MFA distribution did not change as a result of fertilisation. The mass absorption coefficient for x-rays was higher in wood of fertilised trees than in that of untreated trees and wood of fertilised trees contained more of the elements S, Cl, and K, but a smaller amount of Mn. Cellulose crystallites were longer in wood of fertilised trees than in that of untreated trees. Kraft cooking caused widening and shortening of the cellulose crystallites. Tensile tests parallel to the cells showed that if the mean MFA is initially around 10 degrees or smaller, no systematic changes occur in the MFA distribution due to strain. The role of mean MFA in defining the tensile strength or the modulus of elasticity of wood was not as dominant as that reported earlier. Crystalline cellulose elongated much less than the entire samples. The Poisson ratio νca of crystalline cellulose in Norway spruce wood was shown to be largely dependent on the surroundings of crystalline cellulose in the cell wall, varying between -1.2 and 0.8. The Poisson ratio was negative in kraft cooked wood and positive in chemically untreated wood. In chemically untreated wood, νca was larger in mature wood and in latewood compared to juvenile wood and earlywood.

Accelerator Mass Spectrometry and Bayesian Data Analysis

Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) is an ultrasensitive technique for measuring the concentration of a single isotope. The electric and magnetic fields of an electrostatic accelerator system are used to filter out other isotopes from the ion beam. The high velocity means that molecules can be destroyed and removed from the measurement background. As a result, concentrations down to one atom in 10^16 atoms are measurable. This thesis describes the construction of the new AMS system in the Accelerator Laboratory of the University of Helsinki. The system is described in detail along with the relevant ion optics. System performance and some of the 14C measurements done with the system are described. In a second part of the thesis, a novel statistical model for the analysis of AMS data is presented. Bayesian methods are used in order to make the best use of the available information. In the new model, instrumental drift is modelled with a continuous first-order autoregressive process. This enables rigorous normalization to standards measured at different times. The Poisson statistical nature of a 14C measurement is also taken into account properly, so that uncertainty estimates are much more stable. It is shown that, overall, the new model improves both the accuracy and the precision of AMS measurements. In particular, the results can be improved for samples with very low 14C concentrations or measured only a few times.

Intrinsic limits of subthreshold slope in biased bilayer graphene transistor

In this work, we investigate the intrinsic limits of subthreshold slope in a dual gated bilayer graphene transistor using a coupled self-consistent Poisson-bandstructure solver. We benchmark the solver by matching the bias dependent band gap results obtained from the solver against published experimental data. We show that the intrinsic bias dependence of the electronic structure and the self-consistent electrostatics limit the subthreshold slope obtained in such a transistor well above the Boltzmann limit of 60 mV/decade at room temperature, but much below the results experimentally shown till date, indicating room for technological improvement of bilayer graphene.

The effects of marriage partners' socio-economic positions on the risk of divorce in Finland

Väitöskirjatutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten aviopuolisoiden sosioekonominen asema vaikuttaa avioeroriskiin Suomessa. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin Tilastokeskuksen rekistereistä koottua aineistoa, joka koskee suomalaisten ensimmäisiä avioliittoja vuoden 1990 lopussa ja avioeroja vuosina 1991−93. Väitöskirjaan sisältyy kolme osatutkimusta. Ensimmäinen osatutkimus käsitteli avioeroriskin vaihtelua aviopuolisoiden sosioekonomisen aseman eri osatekijöiden (koulutusaste, sosiaaliryhmä, pääasiallinen toiminta, tulotaso, asunnon omistaminen ja asumisahtaus) mukaan. Kaiken kaikkiaan avioeroriski oli sitä pienempi, mitä paremmassa taloudellisessa ja sosiaalisessa asemassa aviopuolisot olivat. Esimerkiksi miehen ja vaimon korkea koulutusaste, toimihenkilöammatti, työssäkäynti (etenkin verrattuna työttömyyteen) sekä omistusasunnossa asuminen liittyivät pienentyneeseen avioeroriskiin. Vaimon sosioekonomisen aseman yhteys avioeroriskiin oli paljolti samanlainen kuin miehen aseman yhteys. Huomattavin poikkeus tähän oli, että vaimon suuret tulot lisäsivät avioeroriskiä, vaikka miehen suurilla tuloilla oli päinvastainen vaikutus. Lisäksi kotitaloustyötä pääasiallisena toimintanaan tekevillä naisilla (pääasiallisen toiminnan luokka ”muut”) oli vielä pienempi avioeroriski kuin työssäkäyvillä naisilla. Toisessa osatutkimuksessa keskityttiin aviomiehen ja vaimon aseman yhdistettyyn vaikutukseen. Selviä viitteitä siitä, että puolisoiden koulutustasojen erilaisuus lisäisi eroriskiä, ei saatu. Pareilla, joissa molemmilla oli enintään perusasteen koulutus, oli kuitenkin odotettua pienempi avioeroriski. Eroriski oli suhteellisen alhainen pareilla, joissa vaimo oli työssäkäyvä tai kotitaloustyötä tekevä ja aviomies työssäkäyvä. Eroriskiä kasvatti se, että aviomies, vaimo tai molemmat puolisot olivat työttömiä. Vaimon korkea tulotaso lisäsi eroriskiä miehen kaikilla tulotasoilla mutta erityisen voimakkaasti silloin, kun miehen tulotaso oli alhainen. Kolmanneksi selvitettiin, vaikuttaako puolisoiden sosioekonominen asema avioeroriskiin eri tavalla riippuen siitä, kauanko avioliitto on kestänyt. Tällöin havaittiin, että vähän koulutettujen ja työntekijäammateissa toimivien puolisoiden suuri eroriski rajoittuu paljolti nuorimpiin avioliittoihin. Sen sijaan esim. puolisoiden työttömyys, vaimon korkea tulotaso ja vuokra-asunnossa asuminen kasvattivat eroriskiä riippumatta siitä, kuinka kauan avioliitto oli kestänyt. Kaiken kaikkiaan eroriski oli siis sitä pienempi, mitä paremmassa taloudellisessa ja sosiaalisessa asemassa puolisot olivat. Vaimon taloudellisilla ja sosiaalisilla resursseilla näyttää kuitenkin olevan myös joitakin avioeroriskiä lisääviä vaikutuksia.

The effects of the 2004 reduction in the price of alcohol on alcohol-related harm in Finland : A natural experiment based on register data

Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.

Not in all Walks of Life? : Social Differences in Suicide Mortality

In Finland, the suicide mortality trend has been decreasing during the last decade and a half, yet suicide was the fourth most common cause of death among both Finnish men and women aged 15 64 years in 2006. However, suicide does not occur equally among population sub-groups. Two notable social factors that position people at different risk of suicide are socioeconomic and employment status: those with low education, employed in manual occupations, having low income and those who are unemployed have been found to have an elevated suicide risk. The purpose of this study was to provide a systematic analysis of these social differences in suicide mortality in Finland. Besides studying socioeconomic trends and differences in suicide according to age and sex, different indicators for socioeconomic status were used simultaneously, taking account of their pathways and mutual associations while also paying attention to confounding and mediatory effects of living arrangements and employment status. Register data obtained from Statistics Finland were used in this study. In some analyses suicides were divided into two groups according to contributory causes of death: the first group consisted of suicide deaths that had alcohol intoxication as one of the contributory causes, and the other group is comprised of all other suicide deaths. Methods included Poisson and Cox regression models. Despite the decrease in suicide mortality trend, social differences still exist. Low occupation-based social class proved to be an important determinant of suicide risk among both men and women, but the strong independent effect of education on alcohol-associated suicide indicates that the roots of these differences are probably established in early adulthood when educational qualifications are obtained and health-behavioural patterns set. High relative suicide mortality among the unemployed during times of economic boom suggests that selective processes may be responsible for some of the employment status differences in suicide. However, long-term unemployment seems to have causal effects on suicide, which, especially among men, partly stem from low income. In conclusion, the results in this study suggest that education, occupation-based social class and employment status have causal effects on suicide risk, but to some extent selection into low education and unemployment are also involved in the explanations for excess suicide mortality among the socially deprived. It is also conceivable that alcohol use is to some extent behind social differences in suicide. In addition to those with low education, manual workers and the unemployed, young people, whose health-related behaviour is still to be adopted, would most probably benefit from suicide prevention programmes.