Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

How does residue management impact soil organic matter composition and quality under Eucalyptus globulus plantations in southwestern Australia?

This study investigated the influence of harvest residue management practices on soil organic matter (SOM) composition and quality from two second-rotation Eucalyptus globulus plantations in southwestern Australia, using solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy with cross-polarisation and magic-angle-spinning (CPMAS). Soil samples (0–5 cm) were collected every 12 months for 5 years from two sites that had contrasting soil types and fertility. Harvest residue management treatments established at both sites were (a) no harvest residues; and (b) double harvest residues. The use of 13C CPMAS and DD NMR spectroscopy enabled the successful non-destructive detection of SOM quality changes in the two E. globulus plantations. Relative intensities of 13C CPMAS NMR spectral regions were similar at both sites, and for both harvest residue treatments, indicating that SOM composition was also similar. Dipolar dephasing (DD) NMR spectra revealed resonances in SOM assigned to lignin and tannin structures, with larger resonances in the carbonyl and alkyl C regions that were indicative of cuticular material, enabling detection of changes in SOM quality. Retention of double harvest residues on the soil surface increased the soil quality compared with removal of all harvest residues at both sites as indicated by the NMR aromaticities, but this was most noticeable at Manjimup, which had greater initial soil fertility.

Perfis de tensão residual do aço duplex UNS S32304 submetido a diferentes processos de soldagem TIG e condições de tratamento térmico

Visando a aplicação do aço UNS S32304 em embalados para transporte de material radioativo, amostras soldadas por processo TIG, com diferentes gases de proteção, foram submetidas a tratamentos térmicos nas temperaturas de 475°C, 600°C e 750°C por 8 horas, seguidas de resfriamento ao ar, a fim de analisar o efeito de temperaturas críticas no perfil de tensões residuais e microestrutura. A difratometria de raios X foi utilizada para determinação das tensões residuais, em diferentes condições (amostras como recebidas e apenas tratadas termicamente) e o perfil de tensões residuais total das amostras soldadas é apresentado para cada fase (austenita e ferrita). As tensões residuais das fases foram determinadas pela técnica sen2ψ, utilizando um difratômetro com fonte de radiação CuKα (<λ

Dimensionamento à punção em apoios internos de lajes protendidas sem aderência

Esta dissertação trata da punção em lajes protendidas com cordoalhas não aderentes, para pilares internos, calculadas através das normas ABNT NBR 6118:2007, ABNT NBR 6118:2014, EN 1992-1-1:2004 e ACI 318-11. Ao longo do trabalho, são apresentados dimensionamentos à punção através desses códigos a fim de se obter uma análise comparativa dos resultados. Além disso, são expostas três situações de provas de carga não destrutivas para punção, realizadas em lajes reais. Os casos, verificados a partir da comparação entre as quatro normas, servem de base para avaliações sobre o nível de segurança estrutural entre os dimensionamentos. Após as análises teóricas, conclui-se que, no geral, o EC2:2004 e a NBR 6118:2014 são os códigos que geram os resultados menos conservadores no cálculo das armaduras de punção. Já o ACI 318-11 e a NBR 6118:2007 obtêm os resultados mais conservadores para esse dimensionamento. Quando considerados os carregamentos máximos sem utilização de armadura de punção, a norma americana se destaca, obtendo valores comparáveis aos do EC2:2004 e da NBR 6118:2014. A NBR 6118:2007 resulta em dimensionamentos sempre mais conservadores.

A influência dos parâmetros nas estimativas VAR: caso prático

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

Global and local detection of liver steatosis from ultrasound

Liver steatosis is a common disease usually associated with social and genetic factors. Early detection and quantification is important since it can evolve to cirrhosis. Steatosis is usually a diffuse liver disease, since it is globally affected. However, steatosis can also be focal affecting only some foci difficult to discriminate. In both cases, steatosis is detected by laboratorial analysis and visual inspection of ultrasound images of the hepatic parenchyma. Liver biopsy is the most accurate diagnostic method but its invasive nature suggest the use of other non-invasive methods, while visual inspection of the ultrasound images is subjective and prone to error. In this paper a new Computer Aided Diagnosis (CAD) system for steatosis classification and analysis is presented, where the Bayes Factor, obatined from objective intensity and textural features extracted from US images of the liver, is computed in a local or global basis. The main goal is to provide the physician with an application to make it faster and accurate the diagnosis and quantification of steatosis, namely in a screening approach. The results showed an overall accuracy of 93.54% with a sensibility of 95.83% and 85.71% for normal and steatosis class, respectively. The proposed CAD system seemed suitable as a graphical display for steatosis classification and comparison with some of the most recent works in the literature is also presented.

Lipid extractions from marine deep-sea invertebrates : modifications to the Bligh & Dyer method to increase lipid yields

The deep-sea environment is difficult to sample, and often only small quantities of samples can be obtained when using less destructive methods than dredging. When working with marine animals that are difficult to sample and with limited quantities of tissue to extract lipids, it is essential to ensure that the used method extracts the maximum possible quantity of lipids. This study evaluates the efficiency of introducing modifications to the method originally described by Bligh & Dyer (1959). This lipid extraction method is broadly used with modifications, although these usually lack proper description and evaluation of increment in lipids. In this study we consider the improvement in terms of amount of lipids extracted by changing the method. Lipid content was determined by gravimetric measurements in eight invertebrates from the deep-sea, including deep-sea hydrothermal vents animals, using three different approaches. Results show increases of 14% to 30% in lipid contents obtained from hydrothermal vent invertebrate tissues and whole animals by placing the samples in methanol for 24 hours before applying the Bligh & Dyer mixture. Efficiency of the extractions using frozen and freeze-dried samples was also compared. For large sponges, the use of lyophilized materials resulted in increases of 3 to 7 times more lipids extracted when compared with extractions using frozen samples.

Avaliação, tratamento e consolidação de madeira em edifícios antigos

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

Análise por ultra-sons no controlo de condição

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

A cor na pintura balinesa: caracterização dos pigmentos da pintura balinesa

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Conservação e Restauro

Delamination analysis of carbon fibre reinforced laminates: evaluation of a special step drill

Drilling of carbon fibre/epoxy laminates is usually carried out using standard drills. However, it is necessary to adapt the processes and/or tooling as the risk of delamination, or other damages, is high. These problems can affect mechanical properties of produced parts, therefore, lower reliability. In this paper, four different drills – three commercial and a special step (prototype) – are compared in terms of thrust force during drilling and delamination. In order to evaluate damage, enhanced radiography is applied. The resulting images were then computational processed using a previously developed image processing and analysis platform. Results show that the prototype drill had encouraging results in terms of maximum thrust force and delamination reduction. Furthermore, it is possible to state that a correct choice of drill geometry, particularly the use of a pilot hole, a conservative cutting speed – 53 m/min – and a low feed rate – 0.025 mm/rev – can help to prevent delamination.

The influence of the boundary conditions on low-velocity impact composite damage

The objective of this work was to study the influence of the boundary conditions on low-velocity impact behaviour of carbon-epoxy composite plates. Experimental work and numerical analysis were performed on [04,904]s laminates. The influence of different boundary conditions on the impacted plates was analysed considering rectangular and square plates. The X-radiography was used as a non-destructive technique to evaluate the internal damage caused by impact loading. A three-dimensional numerical analysis was also performed considering progressive damage modelling. The model includes three-dimensional solid elements and interface finite elements including a cohesive mixed-mode damage model, which allows simulating delamination between different oriented layers. It was verified that plate’s boundary conditions have influence on the delaminated area. Good agreement between experimental and numerical analysis for shape, orientation and size of the delamination was obtained.

Uso da termografia na deteção de avarias

A civilização contemporânea, pelas suas características, é muito exigente em tudo o que diz respeito ao conforto dos edifícios, para trabalho ou habitação, e à necessidade de economizar e racionalizar o uso de energia. A térmica dos edifícios assume, por isso, uma importância acrescida na atividade profissional e no ensino. Para se conduzir ao aperfeiçoamento de soluções na envolvente dos edifícios a este nível, o trabalho aqui realizado centrou-se no estudo do funcionamento da termografia de infravermelhos e da importância da sua utilização na inspeção térmica de edifícios. Descoberta no início do século XIX e desenvolvendo os primeiros sistemas operativos desde a 1ª Guerra Mundial, a fim de determinar heterogeneidades de temperatura superficial, esta técnica não destrutiva permite identificar anomalias que não são visualizadas a olho nu. Com a análise dessas variações de temperatura é possível conhecer os problemas e a localização de irregularidades. Este trabalho baseia-se substancialmente no estudo de edifícios. A análise realizada teve como finalidade executar inspeções termográficas – visuais, com duas abordagens. Por um lado, avaliar salas pertencentes a estabelecimentos de ensino secundário, reabilitadas e não reabilitadas, todas construídas entre as décadas de 60 e 90, com o intuito de diagnosticar patologias construtivas, recorrendo à termografia. Por outro, a análise de edifícios de habitação, com a intenção de avaliar a necessidade de um equipamento complementar às inspeções termográficas – o sistema de porta ventiladora. As inspeções foram regidas pelas diretrizes da norma europeia EN 13187. A termografia é uma técnica importante na realização de ensaios in situ que requerem rapidez de execução, aliada à vantagem de disponibilizar resultados em tempo real, permitindo assim uma primeira análise das leituras no local. A inspeção termográfica complementada com o sistema de porta ventiladora permitiu, também, revelar a importância da necessidade de meios auxiliares em certos casos. A conjugação destas diferentes técnicas permite reduzir a subjetividade da análise in situ e aumentar a fiabilidade do diagnóstico.

Inspecção, diagnóstico e projecto no âmbito da reabilitação de edifícios antigos do Porto

Mestre em Engenharia Civil - Especialização em Estruturas

Avaliação de estruturas de madeira em serviço: caso de estudo da Ermida da Ascensão de Cristo

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Edificações