Parameter Estimation in Chaotic Systems

This report examines how to estimate the parameters of a chaotic system given noisy observations of the state behavior of the system. Investigating parameter estimation for chaotic systems is interesting because of possible applications for high-precision measurement and for use in other signal processing, communication, and control applications involving chaotic systems. In this report, we examine theoretical issues regarding parameter estimation in chaotic systems and develop an efficient algorithm to perform parameter estimation. We discover two properties that are helpful for performing parameter estimation on non-structurally stable systems. First, it turns out that most data in a time series of state observations contribute very little information about the underlying parameters of a system, while a few sections of data may be extraordinarily sensitive to parameter changes. Second, for one-parameter families of systems, we demonstrate that there is often a preferred direction in parameter space governing how easily trajectories of one system can "shadow'" trajectories of nearby systems. This asymmetry of shadowing behavior in parameter space is proved for certain families of maps of the interval. Numerical evidence indicates that similar results may be true for a wide variety of other systems. Using the two properties cited above, we devise an algorithm for performing parameter estimation. Standard parameter estimation techniques such as the extended Kalman filter perform poorly on chaotic systems because of divergence problems. The proposed algorithm achieves accuracies several orders of magnitude better than the Kalman filter and has good convergence properties for large data sets.

Safe Distributed Coordination of Heterogeneous Robots through Dynamic Simple Temporal Networks

Research on autonomous intelligent systems has focused on how robots can robustly carry out missions in uncertain and harsh environments with very little or no human intervention. Robotic execution languages such as RAPs, ESL, and TDL improve robustness by managing functionally redundant procedures for achieving goals. The model-based programming approach extends this by guaranteeing correctness of execution through pre-planning of non-deterministic timed threads of activities. Executing model-based programs effectively on distributed autonomous platforms requires distributing this pre-planning process. This thesis presents a distributed planner for modelbased programs whose planning and execution is distributed among agents with widely varying levels of processor power and memory resources. We make two key contributions. First, we reformulate a model-based program, which describes cooperative activities, into a hierarchical dynamic simple temporal network. This enables efficient distributed coordination of robots and supports deployment on heterogeneous robots. Second, we introduce a distributed temporal planner, called DTP, which solves hierarchical dynamic simple temporal networks with the assistance of the distributed Bellman-Ford shortest path algorithm. The implementation of DTP has been demonstrated successfully on a wide range of randomly generated examples and on a pursuer-evader challenge problem in simulation.

Constraint satisfaction techniques under uncertain conditions for fault diagnosis in nonlinear dynamic systems

The speed of fault isolation is crucial for the design and reconfiguration of fault tolerant control (FTC). In this paper the fault isolation problem is stated as a constraint satisfaction problem (CSP) and solved using constraint propagation techniques. The proposed method is based on constraint satisfaction techniques and uncertainty space refining of interval parameters. In comparison with other approaches based on adaptive observers, the major advantage of the presented method is that the isolation speed is fast even taking into account uncertainty in parameters, measurements and model errors and without the monotonicity assumption. In order to illustrate the proposed approach, a case study of a nonlinear dynamic system is presented

Fault diagnosis by refining the parameter uncertainty space of nonlinear dynamic systems

This paper deals with fault detection and isolation problems for nonlinear dynamic systems. Both problems are stated as constraint satisfaction problems (CSP) and solved using consistency techniques. The main contribution is the isolation method based on consistency techniques and uncertainty space refining of interval parameters. The major advantage of this method is that the isolation speed is fast even taking into account uncertainty in parameters, measurements, and model errors. Interval calculations bring independence from the assumption of monotony considered by several approaches for fault isolation which are based on observers. An application to a well known alcoholic fermentation process model is presented

W3233 -- Networks and Complexity in Social Systems (Collective Dynamics Group ISERP -- Columbia University) Course Syllabus

The Networks and Complexity in Social Systems course commences with an overview of the nascent field of complex networks, dividing it into three related but distinct strands: Statistical description of large scale networks, viewed as static objects; the dynamic evolution of networks, where now the structure of the network is understood in terms of a growth process; and dynamical processes that take place on fixed networks; that is, "networked dynamical systems". (A fourth area of potential research ties all the previous three strands together under the rubric of co-evolution of networks and dynamics, but very little research has been done in this vein and so it is omitted.) The remainder of the course treats each of the three strands in greater detail, introducing technical knowledge as required, summarizing the research papers that have introduced the principal ideas, and pointing out directions for future development. With regard to networked dynamical systems, the course treats in detail the more specific topic of information propagation in networks, in part because this topic is of great relevance to social science, and in part because it has received the most attention in the literature to date.

Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

Numerical modelling of two-way propagation of non-linear dispersive waves

We describe and implement a fully discrete spectral method for the numerical solution of a class of non-linear, dispersive systems of Boussinesq type, modelling two-way propagation of long water waves of small amplitude in a channel. For three particular systems, we investigate properties of the numerically computed solutions; in particular we study the generation and interaction of approximate solitary waves.

Stochastic climate theory and modeling

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as subgrid-scale parameterizations (SSPs) as well as for model error representation, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation, and ensemble prediction. The need to use stochastic approaches in weather and climate models arises because we still cannot resolve all necessary processes and scales in comprehensive numerical weather and climate prediction models. In many practical applications one is mainly interested in the largest and potentially predictable scales and not necessarily in the small and fast scales. For instance, reduced order models can simulate and predict large-scale modes. Statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory suggest that in reduced order models the impact of unresolved degrees of freedom can be represented by suitable combinations of deterministic and stochastic components and non-Markovian (memory) terms. Stochastic approaches in numerical weather and climate prediction models also lead to the reduction of model biases. Hence, there is a clear need for systematic stochastic approaches in weather and climate modeling. In this review, we present evidence for stochastic effects in laboratory experiments. Then we provide an overview of stochastic climate theory from an applied mathematics perspective. We also survey the current use of stochastic methods in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models and show that stochastic parameterizations have the potential to remedy many of the current biases in these comprehensive models.

Recurrence and higher ergodic properties for quenched random Lorentz tubes in dimension bigger than two

We consider the billiard dynamics in a non-compact set of ℝ d that is constructed as a bi-infinite chain of translated copies of the same d-dimensional polytope. A random configuration of semi-dispersing scatterers is placed in each copy. The ensemble of dynamical systems thus defined, one for each global realization of the scatterers, is called quenched random Lorentz tube. Under some fairly general conditions, we prove that every system in the ensemble is hyperbolic and almost every system is recurrent, ergodic, and enjoys some higher chaotic properties.

Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates

Estimating trajectories and parameters of dynamical systems from observations is a problem frequently encountered in various branches of science; geophysicists for example refer to this problem as data assimilation. Unlike as in estimation problems with exchangeable observations, in data assimilation the observations cannot easily be divided into separate sets for estimation and validation; this creates serious problems, since simply using the same observations for estimation and validation might result in overly optimistic performance assessments. To circumvent this problem, a result is presented which allows us to estimate this optimism, thus allowing for a more realistic performance assessment in data assimilation. The presented approach becomes particularly simple for data assimilation methods employing a linear error feedback (such as synchronization schemes, nudging, incremental 3DVAR and 4DVar, and various Kalman filter approaches). Numerical examples considering a high gain observer confirm the theory.

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Bubbling transition to spatial mode excitation in an extended dynamical system

We investigated the transition to spatio-temporal chaos in spatially extended nonlinear dynamical systems possessing an invariant subspace with a low-dimensional attractor. When the latter is chaotic and the subspace is transversely stable we have a spatially homogeneous state only. The onset of spatio-temporal chaos, i.e. the excitation of spatially inhomogeneous modes, occur through the loss of transversal stability of some unstable periodic orbit embedded in the chaotic attractor lying in the invariant subspace. This is a bubbling transition, since there is a switching between spatially homogeneous and nonhomogeneous states with statistical properties of on-off intermittency. Hence the onset of spatio-temporal chaos depends critically both on the existence of a chaotic attractor in the invariant subspace and its being transversely stable or unstable. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

Paper surfaces and dynamical limits

It is very common in mathematics to construct surfaces by identifying the sides of a polygon together in pairs: For example, identifying opposite sides of a square yields a torus. In this article the construction is considered in the case where infinitely many pairs of segments around the boundary of the polygon are identified. The topological, metric, and complex structures of the resulting surfaces are discussed: In particular, a condition is given under which the surface has a global complex structure (i.e., is a Riemann surface). In this case, a modulus of continuity for a uniformizing map is given. The motivation for considering this construction comes from dynamical systems theory: If the modulus of continuity is uniform across a family of such constructions, each with an iteration defined on it, then it is possible to take limits in the family and hence to complete it. Such an application is briefly discussed.

Henon-like maps with arbitrary stationary combinatorics

We extend the renormalization operator introduced in [A. de Carvalho, M. Martens and M. Lyubich. Renormalization in the Henon family, I: universality but non-rigidity. J. Stat. Phys. 121(5/6) (2005), 611-669] from period-doubling Henon-like maps to Henon-like maps with arbitrary stationary combinatorics. We show that the renonnalization picture also holds in this case if the maps are taken to be strongly dissipative. We study infinitely renormalizable maps F and show that they have an invariant Cantor set O on which F acts like a p-adic adding machine for some p > 1. We then show, as for the period-doubling case in the work of de Carvalho, Martens and Lyubich [Renormalization in the Henon family, I: universality but non-rigidity. J. Stat. Phys. 121(5/6) (2005), 611-669], that the sequence of renormalizations has a universal form, but that the invariant Cantor set O is non-rigid. We also show that O cannot possess a continuous invariant line field.