Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Mannan-binding lectin MBL2 gene polymorphism in chronic hepatitis C: association with the severity of liver fibrosis and response to interferon therapy

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of hepatic disease and of liver transplantation worldwide. Mannan-binding lectin (MBL), encoded by the MBL2 gene, can have an important role as an opsonin and complement activating molecule in HCV persistence and liver injury. We assessed the MBL2 polymorphism in 102 Euro-Brazilian patients with moderate and severe chronic hepatitis C, paired for gender and age with 102 HCV seronegative healthy individuals. Six common single nucleotide polymorphisms in the MBL2 gene, three in the promoter (H/L, X/Y and P/Q) and three in exon 1 (A, the wild-type, and B, C or D also known as O) were evaluated using real-time polymerase chain reaction with fluorescent hybridization probes. The concentration of MBL in plasma was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The frequency of the YA/YO genotype was significantly higher in the HCV patients compared with the controls (P = 0.022). On the other hand, the genotypes associated with low levels of MBL (XA/XA, XA/YO and YO/YO) were decreased significantly in the patients with severe fibrosis (stage F4), when compared with the patients with moderate fibrosis (stage F2) (P = 0.04) and to the control group (P = 0.011). Furthermore, MBL2 genotypes containing X or O mutations were found to be associated with non-responsiveness to pginterferon and ribavirin treatment (P = 0.023). MBL2 polymorphisms may therefore be associated not only with the development of chronic hepatitis C, but also with its clinical evolution and response to treatment.

Diel vertical migration: Modelling light-mediated mechanisms

Light is generally regarded as the most likely cue used by zooplankton to regulate their vertical movements through the water column. However, the way in which light is used by zooplankton as a cue is not well understood. In this paper we present a mathematical model of diel vertical migration which produces vertical distributions of zooplankton that vary in space and time. The model is used to predict the patterns of vertical distribution which result when animals are assumed to adopt one of three commonly proposed mechanisms for vertical swimming. First, we assume zooplankton tend to swim towards a preferred intensity of light. We then assume zooplankton swim in response to either the rate of change in light intensity or the relative rate of change in light intensity. The model predicts that for all three mechanisms movement is fastest at sunset and sunrise and populations are primarily influenced by eddy diffusion at night in the absence of a light stimulus. Daytime patterns of vertical distribution differ between the three mechanisms and the reasons for the predicted differences are discussed. Swimming responses to properties of the light field are shown to be adequate for describing diel vertical migration where animals congregate in near surface waters during the evening and reside at deeper depths during the day. However, the model is unable to explain how some populations halt their ascent before reaching surface waters or how populations re-congregate in surface waters a few hours before sunrise, a phenomenon which is sometimes observed in the held. The model results indicate that other exogenous or endogenous factors besides light may play important roles in regulating vertical movement.

Development of an animal model for allergic conjunctivitis: influence of genetic factors and allergen concentration on immune response

Purpose: Animal models of diseases are extremely important in the study of the physiopathogenesis of human diseases and for testing novel therapeutic interventions. The present study aimed to develop an animal model that simulates human allergic conjunctivitis and to study how allergic response may be influenced by the allergen dose used for immunization and by genetic factors. Methods: Sixty C57Bl/6 mice and 60 BALB/c mice were immunized with placebo, or 5 mu g or 500 mu g of allergen derived from Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus. After ocular challenge, the mice were examined in order to clinically verify the occurrence or not of conjunctivitis. Material obtained from animals was used for total and specific IgE and IgG1 dosage, for assays of Der p-specific lymphocyte proliferation and supernatant cytokine dosage, and for histopathological evaluation of conjunctiva. Results: We developed a murine model of allergic conjunctivitis induced by D. pteronyssinus. The model is similar to human disease both clinically and according to laboratory findings. In mouse, conjunctivitis was associated with a Th2 cytokine profile. However, IL-10 appeared to be involved with disease blockade. Mice of different strains have distinct immune responses, depending on the sensitization dose. Conclusions: The murine model developed is suitable for the study of immunopathogenesis and as a template for future therapies. Using BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice, we demonstrated that genetic factors play a role in determining susceptibility and resistance, as well as in establishing the allergen concentration needed to induce or to block disease development.

Influence of pregnancy and smoking on brachial artery flow-mediated dilation values and time until maximum response

To evaluate the effect of pregnancy and smoking on endothelial function using brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) and to determine the time necessary until the occurrence of maximum brachial artery dilation after stimulus. This study was an observational study evaluating 133 women, who were grouped as follows: non-smoking pregnant women (N = 47), smoking pregnant women (N = 33), non-smoking women (N = 34), and smoking pregnant women (N = 19). The diameter of the brachial artery was measured at baseline and at 30, 60, 90 and 120 s after stimulus. The relative change of brachial artery was determined for each of these four moments. FMD measured at 60 s after stimulus was compared between the groups. The maximum FMD was observed at 60 s after cuff release in all groups. FMD was greater among non-smoking pregnant women compared to smoking pregnant women (11.50 +/- A 5.77 vs. 8.74 +/- A 4.83; p = 0.03) and also between non-smoking non-pregnant women compared to smoking non-pregnant women (10.52 +/- A 4.76 vs. 7.21 +/- A 5.57; p = 0.03). Maximum FMD was observed approximately 60 s after stimulus in all groups regardless of smoking and pregnancy status. The smoking habit seems to lead to endothelial dysfunction both in pregnant and non-pregnant women, as demonstrated by the lower FMD in smokers.

Time of treatment influences the appearance of drug-resistant parasites in Plasmodium falciparum infections

A deterministic mathematical model which predicts the probability of developing a new drug-resistant parasite population within the human host is reported, The model incorporates the host's specific antibody response to PfEMP1, and also investigates the influence of chemotherapy on the probability of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population within the host. Results indicate that early, treatment, and a high antibody threshold coupled with a long lag time between antibody stimulation and activity, are risk factors which increase the likelihood of developing a viable drug-resistant parasite population. High parasite mutation rates and fast PfEMP1 var gene switching are also identified as risk factors. The model output allows the relative importance of the various risk factors as well as the relationships between them to be established, thereby increasing the understanding of the conditions which favour the development of a new drug-resistant parasite population.

Combined hydraulic and biological modelling and full-scale validation of SBR process

The biological reactions during the settling and decant periods of Sequencing Batch Reactors (SBRs) are generally ignored as they are not easily measured or described by modelling approaches. However, important processes are taking place, and in particular when the influent is fed into the bottom of the reactor at the same time (one of the main features of the UniFed process), the inclusion of these stages is crucial for accurate process predictions. Due to the vertical stratification of both liquid and solid components, a one-dimensional hydraulic model is combined with a modified ASM2d biological model to allow the prediction of settling velocity, sludge concentration, soluble components and biological processes during the non-mixed periods of the SBR. The model is calibrated on a full-scale UniFed SBR system with tracer breakthrough tests, depth profiles of particulate and soluble compounds and measurements of the key components during the mixed aerobic period. This model is then validated against results from an independent experimental period with considerably different operating parameters. In both cases, the model is able to accurately predict the stratification and most of the biological reactions occurring in the sludge blanket and the supernatant during the non-mixed periods. Together with a correct description of the mixed aerobic period, a good prediction of the overall SBR performance can be achieved.

Modelling of Lamb waves in composite laminated plates excited by interdigital transducers

The technique of permanently attaching interdigital transducers (IDT) to either flat or curved structural surfaces to excite single Lamb wave mode has demonstrated great potential for quantitative non-destructive evaluation and smart materials design, In this paper, the acoustic wave field in a composite laminated plate excited by an IDT is investigated. On the basis of discrete layer theory and a multiple integral transform method, an analytical-numerical approach is developed to evaluate the surface velocity response of the plate due to the IDTs excitation. In this approach, the frequency spectrum and wave number spectrum of the output of IDT are obtained directly. The corresponding time domain results are calculated by applying a standard inverse fast Fourier transformation technique. Numerical examples are presented to validate the developed method and show the ability of mode selection and isolation. A new effective way of transfer function estimation and interpretation is presented by considering the input wave number spectrum in addition to the commonly used input frequency spectrum. The new approach enables the simple physical evaluation of the influences of IDT geometrical features such as electrode finger widths and overall dimension and excitation signal properties on the input-output characteristics of IDT. Finally, considering the convenience of Mindlin plate wave theory in numerical computations as well as theoretical analysis, the validity is examined of using this approximate theory to design IDT for the excitation of the first and second anti-symmetric Lamb modes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impulse-response function of splanchnic circulation with model-independent constraints: theory and experimental validation

Modeling physiological processes using tracer kinetic methods requires knowledge of the time course of the tracer concentration in blood supplying the organ. For liver studies, however, inaccessibility of the portal vein makes direct measurement of the hepatic dual-input function impossible in humans. We want to develop a method to predict the portal venous time-activity curve from measurements of an arterial time-activity curve. An impulse-response function based on a continuous distribution of washout constants is developed and validated for the gut. Experiments with simultaneous blood sampling in aorta and portal vein were made in 13 anesthetized pigs following inhalation of intravascular [O-15] CO or injections of diffusible 3-O[ C-11] methylglucose (MG). The parameters of the impulse-response function have a physiological interpretation in terms of the distribution of washout constants and are mathematically equivalent to the mean transit time ( T) and standard deviation of transit times. The results include estimates of mean transit times from the aorta to the portal vein in pigs: (T) over bar = 0.35 +/- 0.05 min for CO and 1.7 +/- 0.1 min for MG. The prediction of the portal venous time-activity curve benefits from constraining the regression fits by parameters estimated independently. This is strong evidence for the physiological relevance of the impulse-response function, which includes asymptotically, and thereby justifies kinetically, a useful and simple power law. Similarity between our parameter estimates in pigs and parameter estimates in normal humans suggests that the proposed model can be adapted for use in humans.

Hydraulic conductivity in response to exchangeable sodium percentage and solution salt concentration

Hydraulic conductivity is determined in laboratory assays to estimate the flow of water in saturated soils. However, the results of this analysis, when using distilled or deionized water, may not correspond to field conditions in soils with high concentrations of soluble salts. This study therefore set out to determine the hydraulic conductivity in laboratory conditions using solutions of different electrical conductivities in six soils representative of the State of Pernambuco, with the exchangeable sodium percentage adjusted in the range of 5-30%. The results showed an increase in hydraulic conductivity with both decreasing exchangeable sodium percentage and increasing electrical conductivity in the solution. The response to the treatments was more pronounced in soils with higher proportion of more active clays. Determination of hydraulic conductivity in laboratory is routinely performed with deionized or distilled water. However, in salt affected soils, these determinations should be carried out using solutions of electrical conductivity different from 0 dS m-1, with values close to those determined in the saturation extracts.

Surge damping analysis in pipe systems: modelling and experiments

The current study focuses on the analysis of pressure surge damping in single pipeline systems generated by a fast change of flow, conditions. A dimensionless form of pressurised transient flow equations was developed. presenting the main advantage of being independent of the system characteristics. In lack of flow velocity profiles. the unsteady friction in turbulent regimes is analysed based on two new empirical corrective-coefficients associated with local and convective acceleration terms. A new, surge damping approach is also presented taking into account the pressure peak time variation. The observed attenuation effect in the pressure wave for high deformable pipe materials can be described by a combination of the non-elastic behaviour of the pipe-wall with steady and unsteady friction effects. Several simulations and experimental tests have been carried out. in order to analyse the dynamic response of single pipelines with different characteristics, such as pipe materials. diameters. thickness. lengths and transient conditions.

LMP triggered real time demand response events

Recent changes in power systems mainly due to the substantial increase of distributed generation and to the operation in competitive environments has created new challenges to operation and planning. In this context, Virtual Power Players (VPP) can aggregate a diversity of players, namely generators and consumers, and a diversity of energy resources, including electricity generation based on several technologies, storage and demand response. Demand response market implementation has been done in recent years. Several implementation models have been considered. An important characteristic of a demand response program is the trigger criterion. A program for which the event trigger depends on the Locational Marginal Price (LMP) used by the New England Independent System operator (ISO-NE) inspired the present paper. This paper proposes a methodology to support VPP demand response programs management. The proposed method has been computationally implemented and its application is illustrated using a 32 bus network with intensive use of distributed generation. Results concerning the evaluation of the impact of using demand response events are also presented.

Demand response in electrical energy supply: an optimal real time pricing approach

In competitive electricity markets with deep concerns for the efficiency level, demand response programs gain considerable significance. As demand response levels have decreased after the introduction of competition in the power industry, new approaches are required to take full advantage of demand response opportunities. This paper presents DemSi, a demand response simulator that allows studying demand response actions and schemes in distribution networks. It undertakes the technical validation of the solution using realistic network simulation based on PSCAD. The use of DemSi by a retailer in a situation of energy shortage, is presented. Load reduction is obtained using a consumer based price elasticity approach supported by real time pricing. Non-linear programming is used to maximize the retailer’s profit, determining the optimal solution for each envisaged load reduction. The solution determines the price variations considering two different approaches, price variations determined for each individual consumer or for each consumer type, allowing to prove that the approach used does not significantly influence the retailer’s profit. The paper presents a case study in a 33 bus distribution network with 5 distinct consumer types. The obtained results and conclusions show the adequacy of the used methodology and its importance for supporting retailers’ decision making.

The influence of inter-domain mobility on message stream response time in wired/wireless PROFIBUS-based networks

In previous works we have proposed a hybrid wired/wireless PROFIBUS solution where the interconnection between the heterogeneous media was accomplished through bridge-like devices with wireless stations being able to move between different wireless cells. Additionally, we had also proposed a worst-case timing analysis assuming that stations were stationary. In this paper we advance these previous works by proposing a worst-case timing analysis for the system’s message streams considering the effect of inter-cell mobility.