Leveraging new plans in AgentSpeak(PL)

In order to facilitate the development of agent-based software, several agent programming languages and architectures, have been created. Plans in these architectures are often self-contained procedures with an associated triggering event and a context condition, while any further information about the consequences of executing a plan is absent. However, agents designed using such an approach have limited flexibility at runtime, and rely on the designer’s ability to foresee all relevant situations an agent might have to handle. In order to overcome this limitation, we have created AgentSpeak(PL), an interpreter capable of performing state-space planning to generate new high-level plans. As the planning module creates new plans, the plan library is expanded, improving performance over time. However, for new plans to be useful in the long run, it is critical that the context condition associated with new plans is carefully generated. In this paper we describe a plan reuse technique aimed at improving an agent’s runtime performance by deriving optimal context conditions for new plans, allowing an agent to reuse generated plans as much as possible.

Determining the Trustworthiness of New Electronic Contracts

Expressing contractual agreements electronically potentially allows agents to automatically perform functions surrounding contract use: establishment, fulfilment, renegotiation etc. For such automation to be used for real business concerns, there needs to be a high level of trust in the agent-based system. While there has been much research on simulating trust between agents, there are areas where such trust is harder to establish. In particular, contract proposals may come from parties that an agent has had no prior interaction with and, in competitive business-to-business environments, little reputation information may be available. In human practice, trust in a proposed contract is determined in part from the content of the proposal itself, and the similarity of the content to that of prior contracts, executed to varying degrees of success. In this paper, we argue that such analysis is also appropriate in automated systems, and to provide it we need systems to record salient details of prior contract use and algorithms for assessing proposals on their content. We use provenance technology to provide the former and detail algorithms for measuring contract success and similarity for the latter, applying them to an aerospace case study.

SESAME: Finding Ways Of Promoting SME Adaptation To Flood Risk

Small and medium-sized companies and other enterprises (SMEs) around the world are exposed to flood risk and many of the 4.5 million in the UK are at risk. As SMEs represent almost half of total business turnover in the UK, their protection is a vital part of the drive for greater climate change resilience. However, few have measures in place to ensure the continuity of their activities during a flood and its aftermath. The SESAME project aims to develop tools that encourage businesses to discover ways of becoming more resilient to floods and to appreciate how much better off they will be once they have adapted to the ongoing risk. By taking some of the mystery out of flooding and flood risk, it aims to make it susceptible to the same business acumen that enables the UK’s SMEs to deal with the many other challenges they face. In this paper we will report on the different aspects of the research in the project Understanding behaviour Changing behaviour Modelling impacts Economic impacts Through the above the project will advise government, local authorities and other public bodies on how to improve their responses to floods and will enable them to recommend ways to improve the guidelines provided to SMEs in flood risk areas.

O ente estadual na política de atendimento socioeducativo: desafios na implementação a partir de estudo comparativo em Minas Gerais e Rio Grande do Sul

Neste artigo, discute-se os desafios da implementação da política de atendimento socioeducativo em torno dos entes federados, proposta pela Lei 12.594/ 2012– Sistema Nacional de Atendimento Socioeducativo – SINASE. Para isso, realizou-se análise comparativa das normativas de Minas Gerais e Rio Grande do Sul a partir do olhar sobre a regulamentação do exercício profissional do agente de segurança socioeducativa, tendo por base os instrumentos institucionais: as políticas estaduais e o regimento da função de segurança socioeducativa. Identificou-se a prevalência de aspectos de segurança aos de socioeducação, o que torna a efetiva implementação do novo paradigma ainda um desafio. Apontam-se mudanças institucionais como propostas de aperfeiçoamento da política nos entes estaduais.

Fragmentos de complexidade aplicados ao mercado financeiro

O aumento da complexidade do mercado financeiro tem sido relatado por Rajan (2005), Gorton (2008) e Haldane e May (2011) como um dos principais fatores responsáveis pelo incremento do risco sistêmico que culminou na crise financeira de 2007/08. O Bank for International Settlements (2013) aborda a questão da complexidade no contexto da regulação bancária e discute a comparabilidade da adequação de capital entre os bancos e entre jurisdições. No entanto, as definições dos conceitos de complexidade e de sistemas adaptativos complexos são suprimidas das principais discussões. Este artigo esclarece alguns conceitos relacionados às teorias da Complexidade, como se dá a emergência deste fenômeno, como os conceitos podem ser aplicados ao mercado financeiro. São discutidas duas ferramentas que podem ser utilizadas no contexto de sistemas adaptativos complexos: Agent Based Models (ABMs) e entropia e comparadas com ferramentas tradicionais. Concluímos que ainda que a linha de pesquisa da complexidade deixe lacunas, certamente esta contribui com a agenda de pesquisa econômica para se compreender os mecanismos que desencadeiam riscos sistêmicos, bem como adiciona ferramentas que possibilitam modelar agentes heterogêneos que interagem, de forma a permitir o surgimento de fenômenos emergentes no sistema. Hipóteses de pesquisa são sugeridas para aprofundamento posterior.

Utilização de mercados artificiais com formadores de mercado para análise de estratégias

Na modelagem de sistemas complexos, abordagens analíticas tradicionais com equações diferenciais muitas vezes resultam em soluções intratáveis. Para contornar este problema, Modelos Baseados em Agentes surgem como uma ferramenta complementar, onde o sistema é modelado a partir de suas entidades constituintes e interações. Mercados Financeiros são exemplos de sistemas complexos, e como tais, o uso de modelos baseados em agentes é aplicável. Este trabalho implementa um Mercado Financeiro Artificial composto por formadores de mercado, difusores de informações e um conjunto de agentes heterogêneos que negociam um ativo através de um mecanismo de Leilão Duplo Contínuo. Diversos aspectos da simulação são investigados para consolidar sua compreensão e assim contribuir com a concepção de modelos, onde podemos destacar entre outros: Diferenças do Leilão Duplo Contínuo contra o Discreto; Implicações da variação do spread praticado pelo Formador de Mercado; Efeito de Restrições Orçamentárias sobre os agentes e Análise da formação de preços na emissão de ofertas. Pensando na aderência do modelo com a realidade do mercado brasileiro, uma técnica auxiliar chamada Simulação Inversa, é utilizada para calibrar os parâmetros de entrada, de forma que trajetórias de preços simulados resultantes sejam próximas à séries de preços históricos observadas no mercado.

Ensaios sobre mercados artificiais com dois ativos utilizando algoritmos genéticos

A abordagem de Modelos Baseados em Agentes é utilizada para trabalhar problemas complexos, em que se busca obter resultados partindo da análise e construção de componentes e das interações entre si. Os resultados observados a partir das simulações são agregados da combinação entre ações e interferências que ocorrem no nível microscópico do modelo. Conduzindo, desta forma, a uma simulação do micro para o macro. Os mercados financeiros são sistemas perfeitos para o uso destes modelos por preencherem a todos os seus requisitos. Este trabalho implementa um Modelo de Mercado Financeiro Baseado em Agentes constituído por diversos agentes que interagem entre si através de um Núcleo de Negociação que atua com dois ativos e conta com o auxílio de formadores de mercado para promover a liquidez dos mercados, conforme se verifica em mercados reais. Para operação deste modelo, foram desenvolvidos dois tipos de agentes que administram, simultaneamente, carteiras com os dois ativos. O primeiro tipo usa o modelo de Markowitz, enquanto o segundo usa técnicas de análise de spread entre ativos. Outra contribuição deste modelo é a análise sobre o uso de função objetivo sobre os retornos dos ativos, no lugar das análises sobre os preços.

Redes sociais e a lógica do desvio comportamental em relação às normas de trabalho

This paper aim to check a hypothesis that assumes several behaviors related to social work norm´s obeying as a phenomenon that can be explained by actor´s social network structure and the rational choice processes related to the social norm inside that network, principally the payoff´s analysis received by the closest actors, or neighbors, at a social situation. Taking the sociological paradigm of rational action theory as a basis, the focus is on a debate about the logic of social norms, from Émile Durkheim´s method to Jon Elster´s theory, but also including social network analysis´s variables according to Robert Hanneman; and also Vilfredo Pareto´s constants related to human sociability, at the aim to detect elements that can help the scholars to develop an agent based model which could explain the sociological problem of deviance by a better way than the common sense´s view about morality and ethics at a social work environment

Agentes Inteligentes com Foco de Atenção Afetivo em Simulações Baseadas em Agentes

Simulations based on cognitively rich agents can become a very intensive computing task, especially when the simulated environment represents a complex system. This situation becomes worse when time constraints are present. This kind of simulations would benefit from a mechanism that improves the way agents perceive and react to changes in these types of environments. In other worlds, an approach to improve the efficiency (performance and accuracy) in the decision process of autonomous agents in a simulation would be useful. In complex environments, and full of variables, it is possible that not every information available to the agent is necessary for its decision-making process, depending indeed, on the task being performed. Then, the agent would need to filter the coming perceptions in the same as we do with our attentions focus. By using a focus of attention, only the information that really matters to the agent running context are perceived (cognitively processed), which can improve the decision making process. The architecture proposed herein presents a structure for cognitive agents divided into two parts: 1) the main part contains the reasoning / planning process, knowledge and affective state of the agent, and 2) a set of behaviors that are triggered by planning in order to achieve the agent s goals. Each of these behaviors has a runtime dynamically adjustable focus of attention, adjusted according to the variation of the agent s affective state. The focus of each behavior is divided into a qualitative focus, which is responsible for the quality of the perceived data, and a quantitative focus, which is responsible for the quantity of the perceived data. Thus, the behavior will be able to filter the information sent by the agent sensors, and build a list of perceived elements containing only the information necessary to the agent, according to the context of the behavior that is currently running. Based on the human attention focus, the agent is also dotted of a affective state. The agent s affective state is based on theories of human emotion, mood and personality. This model serves as a basis for the mechanism of continuous adjustment of the agent s attention focus, both the qualitative and the quantative focus. With this mechanism, the agent can adjust its focus of attention during the execution of the behavior, in order to become more efficient in the face of environmental changes. The proposed architecture can be used in a very flexibly way. The focus of attention can work in a fixed way (neither the qualitative focus nor the quantitaive focus one changes), as well as using different combinations for the qualitative and quantitative foci variation. The architecture was built on a platform for BDI agents, but its design allows it to be used in any other type of agents, since the implementation is made only in the perception level layer of the agent. In order to evaluate the contribution proposed in this work, an extensive series of experiments were conducted on an agent-based simulation over a fire-growing scenario. In the simulations, the agents using the architecture proposed in this work are compared with similar agents (with the same reasoning model), but able to process all the information sent by the environment. Intuitively, it is expected that the omniscient agent would be more efficient, since they can handle all the possible option before taking a decision. However, the experiments showed that attention-focus based agents can be as efficient as the omniscient ones, with the advantage of being able to solve the same problems in a significantly reduced time. Thus, the experiments indicate the efficiency of the proposed architecture

Um framework de agentes de recomendação para sistemas Web

The World Wide Web has been consolidated over the last years as a standard platform to provide software systems in the Internet. Nowadays, a great variety of user applications are available on the Web, varying from corporate applications to the banking domain, or from electronic commerce to the governmental domain. Given the quantity of information available and the quantity of users dealing with their services, many Web systems have sought to present recommendations of use as part of their functionalities, in order to let the users to have a better usage of the services available, based on their profile, history navigation and system use. In this context, this dissertation proposes the development of an agent-based framework that offers recommendations for users of Web systems. It involves the conception, design and implementation of an object-oriented framework. The framework agents can be plugged or unplugged in a non-invasive way in existing Web applications using aspect-oriented techniques. The framework is evaluated through its instantiation to three different Web systems

A Markovian model market-Akerlof's lemons and the asymmetry of information

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Jogo da Minoria: um modelo baseado em agentes aplicado ao mercado financeiro

Nos últimos anos houve uma contribuição significativa dos físicos para a construção de um tipo de modelo baseado em agentes que busca reproduzir, em simulação computacional, o comportamento do mercado financeiro. Esse modelo, chamado Jogo da Minoria consiste de um grupo de agentes que vão ao mercado comprar ou vender ativos. Eles tomam decisões com base em estratégias e, por meio delas, os agentes estabelecem um intrincado jogo de competição e coordenação pela distribuição da riqueza. O modelo tem demonstrado resultados bastante ricos e surpreendentes, tanto na dinâmica do sistema como na capacidade de reproduzir características estatísticas e comportamentais do mercado financeiro. Neste artigo, são apresentadas a estrutura e a dinâmica do Jogo da Minoria, bem como as contribuições recentes relacionadas ao Jogo da Minoria denominado de Grande Canônico, que é um modelo mais bem ajustado às características do mercado financeiro e reproduz as regularidades estatísticas do preço dos ativos chamadas fatos estilizados.