A practical framework for the generation and selection of strategic plans of action, The relevance of timeframe considerations and a systems thinking approach

The paper proposes a methodology especially focused on the generation of strategic plans of action, emphasizing the relevance of having a structured timeframe classification for the actions. The methodology explicitly recognizes the relevance of long-term goals as strategic drivers, which must insure that the complex system is capable to effectively respond to changes in the environment. In addition, the methodology employs engineering systems techniques in order to understand the inner working of the system and to build up alternative plans of action. Due to these different aspects, the proposed approach features higher flexibility compared to traditional methods. The validity and effectiveness of the methodology has been demonstrated by analyzing an airline company composed by 5 subsystems with the aim of defining a plan of action for the next 5 years, which can either: improve efficiency, redefine mission or increase revenues.

Systems thinking: learning or driving?

The ability to foresee how behaviour of a system arises from the interaction of its components over time - i.e. its dynamic complexity – is seen an important ability to take effective decisions in our turbulent world. Dynamic complexity emerges frequently from interrelated simple structures, such as stocks and flows, feedbacks and delays (Forrester, 1961). Common sense assumes an intuitive understanding of their dynamic behaviour. However, recent researches have pointed to a persistent and systematic error in people understanding of those building blocks of complex systems. This paper describes an empirical study concerning the native ability to understand systems thinking concepts. Two different groups - one, academic, the other, professional – submitted to four tasks, proposed by Sweeney and Sterman (2000) and Sterman (2002). The results confirm a poor intuitive understanding of the basic systems concepts, even when subjects have background in mathematics and sciences.

Systems thinking: learning or driving?

The ability to foresee how behaviour of a system arises from the interaction of its components over time - i.e. its dynamic complexity – is seen an important ability to take effective decisions in our turbulent world. Dynamic complexity emerges frequently from interrelated simple structures, such as stocks and flows, feedbacks and delays (Forrester, 1961). Common sense assumes an intuitive understanding of their dynamic behaviour. However, recent researches have pointed to a persistent and systematic error in people understanding of those building blocks of complex systems. This paper describes an empirical study concerning the native ability to understand systems thinking concepts. Two different groups - one, academic, the other, professional – submitted to four tasks, proposed by Sweeney and Sterman (2000) and Sterman (2002). The results confirm a poor intuitive understanding of the basic systems concepts, even when subjects have background in mathematics and sciences.

Thinking over b‐learning strategy: the MIPO model approach

This article describes the main research results in a new methodology, in which the stages and strategies of the technology integration process are identified and described. A set of principles and recommendations are therefore presented. The MIPO model described in this paper is a result of the effort made regarding the understanding of the main success features of good practices, in the web environment, integrated in the information systems/information technology context. The initial model has been created, based on experiences and literature review. After that, it was tested in the information and technology system units at higher school and also adapted as a result of four cycles of an actionresearch work combined with a case study research. The information, concepts and procedures presented here give support to teachers and instructors, instructional designers and planning teams – anyone who wants to develop effective b‐learning instructions.

OC/EC ratio observations in Europe: Re-thinking the approach for apportionment between primary and secondary organic carbon

This study explores a large set of OC and EC measurements in PM(10) and PM(2.5) aerosol samples, undertaken with a long term constant analytical methodology, to evaluate the capability of the OC/EC minimum ratio to represent the ratio between the OC and EC aerosol components resulting from fossil fuel combustion (OC(ff)/EC(ff)). The data set covers a wide geographical area in Europe, but with a particular focus upon Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom, and includes a great variety of sites: urban (background, kerbside and tunnel), industrial, rural and remote. The highest minimum ratios were found in samples from remote and rural sites. Urban background sites have shown spatially and temporally consistent minimum ratios, of around 1.0 for PM(10) and 0.7 for PM(2.5).The consistency of results has suggested that the method could be used as a tool to derive the ratio between OC and EC from fossil fuel combustion and consequently to differentiate OC from primary and secondary sources. To explore this capability, OC and EC measurements were performed in a busy roadway tunnel in central Lisbon. The OC/EC ratio, which reflected the composition of vehicle combustion emissions, was in the range of 03-0.4. Ratios of OC/EC in roadside increment air (roadside minus urban background) in Birmingham, UK also lie within the range 03-0.4. Additional measurements were performed under heavy traffic conditions at two double kerbside sites located in the centre of Lisbon and Madrid. The OC/EC minimum ratios observed at both sites were found to be between those of the tunnel and those of urban background air, suggesting that minimum values commonly obtained for this parameter in open urban atmospheres over-predict the direct emissions of OC(ff) from road transport. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are explored. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lean thinking: Glass Wall Management

Sendo os desperdícios “Waste” associados à atividade industrial em Portugal e nos mercados globais e os seus custos inerentes, uma das maiores preocupações a todos os níveis de gestão empresarial, a filosofia “Lean” nasce como ajuda e encaminhamento na solução desta problemática. O conceito “Lean”, no que se refere à indústria, desde sempre e até aos dias de hoje, tem uma enorme ênfase, com a adoção deste conceito.Verificam-se bons resultados ao nível da redução de custos, melhoria da qualidade geral dos artigos produzidos, no controlo da produção em geral e é uma poderosa ferramenta no estreitamento da relação entre os diferentes intervenientes da cadeia de valor de determinado produto, sobretudo com fornecedores e com clientes. Com “Lean Management” e “Glass Wall Management”, em ambientes onde as empresas mais avançadas estão a procurar melhorar a sua competitividade através de uma gestão transparente (“Glass Wall Management”), a partir da qual, “toda informação relevante é compartilhada de maneira a que todos entendam a situação”(Suzaki, K, 1993), ganha cada vez mais importância a existência de uma estrutura organizacional que permita esta transparência e a consequente maturidade das empresas. Neste trabalho foram descritos alguns processos de gestão transparente desenvolvidos nos últimos dois anos numa PME portuguesa, aprofundando o processo de gestão transparente vigente e as ferramentas que ajudam a empresa e que na sua globalidade poderão ser extrapoladas a outras PME Portuguesas de modo que a informação importante e relevante seja partilhada por todos os intervenientes na estrutura empresarial, sendo entendida e desenvolvida por todos através de Edições e Revisões aos documentos mais importantes da empresa. Neste estudo foram contactadas vinte e uma PME’S portuguesas de tipologia de produção MTO (Make to Order) do sector dos estofos/mobiliário, e solicitado o preenchimento de um Questionário, tendo como fim em vista, a verificação do uso desta metodologia “Glass Wall Management” à escala empresarial portuguesa e a interpretação do Conceito Geral “Lean” como filosofia de redução de materiais, tempos e custos.

Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants in deregulated electricity markets. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. ALBidS is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This tool’s goal is to force the thinker to move outside his habitual thinking style. It was developed to be used mainly at meetings in order to “run better meetings, make faster decisions”. This dissertation presents a study about the applicability of the Six Thinking Hats technique in Decision Support Systems, particularly with the multiagent paradigm like the MASCEM simulator. As such this work’s proposal is of a new agent, a meta-learner based on STH technique that organizes several different ALBidS’ strategies and combines the distinct answers into a single one that, expectedly, out-performs any of them.

Additive adaptive thinking in 1st and 2nd grades pupils

This paper is part of the Project “Adaptive thinking and flexible computation: Critical issues”. It discusses what is meant by adaptive thinking and presents the results of individual interviews with four pupils. The main goal of the study is to understand pupils’ reasoning when solving numerical tasks involving additive situations, and identify features associated with adaptive thinking. The results show that, in the case of first grade pupils, the semantic aspects of the problem are involved in its resolution and the pupils’ performance appears to be related to the development of number sense. The 2nd grade pupils seem to see the quantitative difference as an invariant numerical relationship.

Six thinking hats: A novel metalearner for intelligent decision support in electricity markets

The energy sector has suffered a significant restructuring that has increased the complexity in electricity market players' interactions. The complexity that these changes brought requires the creation of decision support tools to facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. The Multiagent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) arose in this context, providing a simulation framework for deregulated electricity markets. The Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System (ALBidS) is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM, ALBidS considers several different strategic methodologies based on highly distinct approaches. Six Thinking Hats (STH) is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives, forcing the thinker to move outside its usual way of thinking. This paper aims to complement the ALBidS strategies by combining them and taking advantage of their different perspectives through the use of the STH group decision technique. The combination of ALBidS' strategies is performed through the application of a genetic algorithm, resulting in an evolutionary learning approach.