Utilização de índices de estabilidade transitória para a avaliação de segurança dinâmica

Indices that report how much a contingency is stable or unstable in an electrical power system have been the object of several studies in the last decades. In some approaches, indices are obtained from time-domain simulation; others explore the calculation of the stability margin from the so-called direct methods, or even by neural networks.The goal is always to obtain a fast and reliable way of analysing large disturbance that might occur on the power systems. A fast classification in stable and unstable, as a function of transient stability is crucial for a dynamic security analysis. All good propositions as how to analyse contingencies must present some important features: classification of contingencies; precision and reliability; and efficiency computation. Indices obtained from time-domain simulations have been used to classify the contingencies as stable or unstable. These indices are based on the concepts of coherence, transient energy conversion between kinetic energy and potential energy, and three dot products of state variable. The classification of the contingencies using the indices individually is not reliable, since the performance of these indices varies with each simulated condition. However, collapsing these indices into a single one can improve the analysis significantly. In this paper, it is presented the results of an approach to filter the contingencies, by a simple classification of them into stable, unstable or marginal. This classification is performed from the composite indices obtained from step by step simulation with a time period of the clearing time plus 0.5 second. The contingencies originally classified as stable or unstable do not require this extra simulation. The methodology requires an initial effort to obtain the values of the intervals for classification, and the weights. This is performed once for each power system and can be used in different operating conditions and for different contingencies. No misplaced classification o- - ccurred in any of the tests, i.e., we detected no stable case classified as unstable or otherwise. The methodology is thus well fitted for it allows for a rapid conclusion about the stability of th system, for the majority of the contingencies (Stable or Unstable Cases). The tests, results and discussions are presented using two power systems: (1) the IEEE17 system, composed of 17 generators, 162 buses and 284 transmission lines; and (2) a South Brazilian system configuration, with 10 generators, 45 buses and 71 lines.

Comparação dos algoritmos C4.5 e MLP usados na avaliação da segurança dinâmica e no auxílio ao controle preventivo no contexto da estabilidade transitória de sistemas de potência

Esse trabalho compara os algoritmos C4.5 e MLP (do inglês “Multilayer Perceptron”) aplicados a avaliação de segurança dinâmica ou (DSA, do inglês “Dynamic Security Assessment”) e em projetos de controle preventivo, com foco na estabilidade transitória de sistemas elétricos de potência (SEPs). O C4.5 é um dos algoritmos da árvore de decisão ou (DT, do inglês “Decision Tree”) e a MLP é um dos membros da família das redes neurais artificiais (RNA). Ambos os algoritmos fornecem soluções para o problema da DSA em tempo real, identificando rapidamente quando um SEP está sujeito a uma perturbação crítica (curto-circuito, por exemplo) que pode levar para a instabilidade transitória. Além disso, o conhecimento obtido de ambas as técnicas, na forma de regras, pode ser utilizado em projetos de controle preventivo para restaurar a segurança do SEP contra perturbações críticas. Baseado na formação de base de dados com exaustivas simulações no domínio do tempo, algumas perturbações críticas específicas são tomadas como exemplo para comparar os algoritmos C4.5 e MLP empregadas a DSA e ao auxílio de ações preventivas. O estudo comparativo é testado no sistema elétrico “New England”. Nos estudos de caso, a base de dados é gerada por meio do programa PSTv3 (“Power System Toolbox”). As DTs e as RNAs são treinada e testadas usando o programa Rapidminer. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que os algoritmos C4.5 e MLP são promissores nas aplicações de DSA e em projetos de controle preventivo.

Uso de árvore de decisão para avaliação da segurança estática em tempo real de sistemas elétricos de potência

As técnicas utilizadas para avaliação da segurança estática em sistemas elétricos de potência dependem da execução de grande número de casos de fluxo de carga para diversas topologias e condições operacionais do sistema. Em ambientes de operação de tempo real, esta prática é de difícil realização, principalmente em sistemas de grande porte onde a execução de todos os casos de fluxo de carga que são necessários, exige elevado tempo e esforço computacional mesmo para os recursos atuais disponíveis. Técnicas de mineração de dados como árvore de decisão estão sendo utilizadas nos últimos anos e tem alcançado bons resultados nas aplicações de avaliação da segurança estática e dinâmica de sistemas elétricos de potência. Este trabalho apresenta uma metodologia para avaliação da segurança estática em tempo real de sistemas elétricos de potência utilizando árvore de decisão, onde a partir de simulações off-line de fluxo de carga, executadas via software Anarede (CEPEL), foi gerada uma extensa base de dados rotulada relacionada ao estado do sistema, para diversas condições operacionais. Esta base de dados foi utilizada para indução das árvores de decisão, fornecendo um modelo de predição rápida e precisa que classifica o estado do sistema (seguro ou inseguro) para aplicação em tempo real. Esta metodologia reduz o uso de computadores no ambiente on-line, uma vez que o processamento das árvores de decisão exigem apenas a verificação de algumas instruções lógicas do tipo if-then, de um número reduzido de testes numéricos nos nós binários para definição do valor do atributo que satisfaz as regras, pois estes testes são realizados em quantidade igual ao número de níveis hierárquicos da árvore de decisão, o que normalmente é reduzido. Com este processamento computacional simples, a tarefa de avaliação da segurança estática poderá ser executada em uma fração do tempo necessário para a realização pelos métodos tradicionais mais rápidos. Para validação da metodologia, foi realizado um estudo de caso baseado em um sistema elétrico real, onde para cada contingência classificada como inseguro, uma ação de controle corretivo é executada, a partir da informação da árvore de decisão sobre o atributo crítico que mais afeta a segurança. Os resultados mostraram ser a metodologia uma importante ferramenta para avaliação da segurança estática em tempo real para uso em um centro de operação do sistema.

The Australian Business Assessment of Computer User Security (ABACUS): A national survey.

The Australian Business Assessment of Computer User Security (ABACUS) survey is a nationwide assessment of the prevalence and nature of computer security incidents experienced by Australian businesses. This report presents the findings of the survey which may be used by businesses in Australia to assess the effectiveness of their information technology security measures.

Food security and poverty alleviation under the National Special Programme for Food Security: a preliminary socio-economic assessment of Yamama Lake, Kebbi state, Nigeria

The World Food Summit in its meeting in Rome in 1999 estimated that 790 million people in the developing world do not have enough food to eat. This is more than the total populations of North America and Europe combined. Nigeria is one of the developing countries affected by hunger, deprivation and abject poverty by its citizenry inspite of its enormous natural and human resources. To reduce poverty and increase food supplies to the masses the Federal Government of Nigeria embarked on a programmed-tagged National Special Programme for Food Security (NSPFS) in the year 2002. The programme's broad objectives are to attain food security in the broadest sense and alleviate rural poverty in Nigeria. One of the areas of the programme's intervention is in the aquaculture and inland fisheries development because Nigeria imported 681mt of fish in 2003 with a total cost of about N50 million. The paper assesses the socio-economic conditions of one of the selected water bodies (Yamama Lake) with a view to introducing community-based fisheries management plan for the rational exploitation and management of the fishery and other aquatic resources of the water body thereby increasing fish supply and improving the living standard of the fisherfolk in the area. Data were collected using Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) tools and questionnaire administration

Assessment of inland waters fisheries in Nigeria with implications for improved freshwater fish production, poverty alleviation and food security

Rapid Appraisals of the current fisheries situations of some selected inland water bodies in Nigeria were carried out within the framework of Aquaculture and Inland Fisheries Project (AIFP) Annex II of the National Special Programme for Food Security (NSPFS). This paper presents the results of the fishery assessment of one of the selected inland water bodies (Sabke Lake) in Nigeria with a view to optimizing the fish yield through the adoption of improved culture based fishery techniques and community-based fisheries management. The lake is unmanaged and the fishing pressure was found to be very high. Also a number of fishermen were found using small mesh size nets to crop the juveniles of highly valued fish species for an optimum catch. About 14 fishermen ought to have been engaged in full time fishing activities if the fisheries of this lake is to be managed on a sustainable basis. However, a surplus of over 100 fishermen was recorded actively fishing during the period of the study. The results further revealed that Fisheries Rules and Regulations were not established for the national exploitation and proper management of the fisheries of many inland water bodies including Sabke Lake. All these have a depilatory effect on the abundance and sizes of fish harvested from the nigerian inland water bodies especially Sabke Lake. A community based management system that establishes a participatory involvement of fishermen in the conservation and national exploitation of fisheries resources for their own well being is recommended for Sabke Lake and other inland water bodies in Nigeria

Analysis and Assessment of Conclusions in the White Book regarding Threats and Challenges in EU Common Security and Defence Policy

Among the many issues that were raised in the White Book on National Security of the Republic of Poland (WBNSRP), there were also those related to the functioning of a Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Its importance for the security of Poland was indicated, as well as the need on the part of EU Member States to broaden collaboration in the sphere of security and defence. The key problems occurring in the context of CSDP were also emphasised and their causes indicated. The aim of the article is to present the factors responsible for the weakening of CSDP effectiveness, ones taken into account in the White Book, and subsequently to present a Framework for their analysis in the light of further scholarship.

Supply chain security: the need for continuous assessment

Ease of Internet accessibility has offered business the opportunity to incorporate this electronic infrastructure technology into establishing electronic-based supply chains. With the improved efficiency that this brings to the management and functionality of the supply chain, there are also security considerations that should be taken into account for protecting the integrity of the electronic supply chain, not only within each business node, but also across the entire supply chain. Such security vulnerabilities can be negated with the implementation of security measures and policies, however these need to be consistent throughout the supply chain and regularly assessed against security benchmarks in order to ensure they meet dequate security standards.

Security as an element in environmental assessment and decision making

he prominence of global warming as an environmental issue has illustrated the close relationship between natural resources, ecosystems and global security. Whilst environmental decision making often uses techniques such as economic valuation and risk management, the security component is often not considered, at least not from a security analyst’s perspective. Yet environmental security considerations can be global, regional and/or national in impact. Environmental change and policy can effect human health and well being as well as initiating conflict; it can affect the existence of life itself. These aspects are firmly in the domain of the security discipline although the protection of the global ecosystem has not traditionally been considered by those who create security policy. The idea of environmental/ecological security ranges from the eco-centric approach which examines the impact of human activities that impact on the security of the natural systems to the more traditional anthropocentric perspectives that look at varied issues such as conflict caused by natural resource competition and environmental degradation, and the greening of military operations. This paper will assert that the inclusion of the security factor in policy creation and environmental assessments is essential to give richer solutions to these complex socio-economic and ecological situations. Systems theory over the last few decades has emphasised the inclusion of as many perspectives on messy problems as possible to provide truly systemic outcomes. It is posited that the addition of such concepts as threat analyses will produce more effective and sustainable outcomes.

An agile IT security model for project risk assessment

There are two fundamental challenges in effectively performing security risk assessment in today's IT projects.The first is the project manager's need to know what IT security risks face the project before the project begins. At this stage IT security staff are unable to answer this question without first knowing the system requirements for the project which are yet to be defined. Second organisations that deal with a large project throughput each year find the current IT security risk assessment process to be tedious and expensive, especially when the same process has to be repeated for each individual project. This also makes it difficult for an organisation to prioritise which projects require more investment in IT security in order to fit within budget constraints. This paper presents a conceptual model that is based on an agile approach to alleviate these challenges. We do this by first analysing two online database resources of vulnerabilities by comparing them to each other, and then compare them to the agile criteria of the conceptual model which we define. The conceptual model is then presented and an example is given of how it can be applied to an actual project. We then briefly discuss what further work needs to be done to implement the conceptual model and validate it against an existing IT project.

The impact of social security reform on occupational and retirement behavior : a quantitative assessment for Brazil

Population ageing is a problem that countries will have to cope with within a few years. How would changes in the social security system affect individual behaviour? We develop a multi-sectoral life-cycle model with both retirement and occupational choices to evaluate what are the macroeconomic impacts of social security reforms. We calibrate the model to match 2011 Brazilian economy and perform a counterfactual exercise of the long-run impacts of a recently adopted reform. In 2013, the Brazilian government approximated the two segregated social security schemes, imposing a ceiling on public pensions. In the benchmark equilibrium, our modelling economy is able to reproduce the early retirement claiming, the agents' stationary distribution among sectors, as well as the social security deficit and the public job application decision. In the counterfactual exercise, we find a significant reduction of 55\% in the social security deficit, an increase of 1.94\% in capital-to-output ratio, with both output and capital growing, a delay in retirement claims of public workers and a modification in the structure of agents applying to the public sector job.