Avaliação microeconômica do comportamento de investidores frente às alterações de condições de mercado : os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros

Neste trabalho buscamos identificar os principais determinantes da demanda por fundos de investimento no Brasil através do modelo Logit, que é bastante utilizado na teoria das organizações industriais. Sempre que possível realizamos “links” com os principais conceitos de finanças comportamentais. Assim, conseguimos aclarar as principais variáveis que impactam as variações de “market-share” na indústria de fundos de investimento. Concluímos que os principais indicadores observados pelos investidores no momento de tomada de decisão são o CDI, a inflação, a taxa real de juros, a variação do dólar e da bolsa de valores, por outro lado a rentabilidade acumulada dos últimos três meses é fator decisivo para que o investidor aplique ou resgate um fundo de investimento. Variáveis de risco e de retorno esperado que imaginávamos ter forte impacto, não se mostraram significativas para as variações de “share”.

Avaliação do desenvolvimento neuropsicomotor em crianças na rede básica de saúde utilizando o teste de Denver II: identificação de fatores de risco materno

Alterations in the neuropsychomotor development of children are not rare and can manifest themselves with varying intensity at different stages of their development. In this context, maternal risk factors may contribute to the appearance of these alterations. A number of studies have reported that neuropsychomotor development diagnosis is not an easy task, especially in the basic public health network. Diagnosis requires effective, low-cost, and easy - to-apply procedures. The Denver Developmental Screening Test, first published in 1967, is currently used in several countries. It has been revised and renamed as the Denver II Test and meets the aforementioned criteria. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to apply the Denver II Test in order to verify the prevalence of suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in children between the ages of 0 and 12 months and correlate it with the following maternal risk factors: family income, schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during pregnancy, gestational age, gestational problems, type of delivery and the desire to have children. For data collection, performed during the first 6 months of 2004, a clinical assessment was made of 398 children selected by pediatricians and the nursing team of each public health unit. Later, the parents or guardians were asked to complete a structured questionnaire to determine possible risk indicators of neuropsychomotor development delay. Finally the Denver II Developmental Screening Test (DDST) was applied. The data were analyzed together, using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software, version 6.1. The confidence interval was set at 95%. The Denver II Test yielded normal and questionable results. This suggests compromised neuropsychomotor development in the children examined and deserves further investigation. The correlation of the results with preestablished maternal risk variables (family income, mother s schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during the pregnancy and gestational age) was strongly significant. The other maternal risk variables (gestational problems, type of delivery and desire to have children) were not significant. Using an adjusted logistic regression model, we obtained the estimate of the greater likelihood of a child having suspected neuropsychomotor development delay: a mother with _75 4 years of schooling, chronological age less than 20 years and a drug user during pregnancy. This study produced two manuscripts, one published in Acta Cirúrgica Brasileira , in which an analysis was performed of children with suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in the city of Natal, Brazil. The other paper (to be published) analyzed the magnitude of the independent variable maternal schooling associated to neuropsychomotor development delay, every 3 months during the first twelve months of life of the children selected.. The results of the present study reinforce the multifactorial characteristic of development and the cumulative effect of maternal risk factors, and show the need for a regional policy that promotes low-cost programs for the community, involving children at risk of neuropsychomotor development delay. Moreover, they suggest the need for better qualified health professionals in terms of monitoring child development. This was an inter- and multidisciplinary study with the integrated participation of doctors, nurses, nursing assistants and professionals from other areas, such as statisticians and information technology professionals, who met all the requirements of the Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte

Estudo dos fatores associados à infecção chagásica em área endêmica do Rio Grande do Norte

The Chagas disease is a infectious and parasite disease that has as the causative agent a Trypanosoma cruzi, a protozoan parasite that can be transmitted to humans by the faeces of triatomines ( barbeiros ) in the blood-sucking. To understand the relationship between factors associated with chagasic infection and the risk of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, this work aimed to make a correlation between the results of serology, obtained by different immunological techniques, used for diagnosis of Chagas disease and risk factors to which the population of the city of Apodi-RN is exposed, to be considered a endemic area. The case-control study was conducted with 199 individuals, which initially was applied a questionary about socio-economic questions and some risk factors which they were exposed and also favor the spread of disease. Then was given the diagnosis by immunological techniques of serology by indirect hemagglutination, ELISA and indirect immunofluorescence. From the diagnosis, the subjects were divided into case group (presence of infection) and control group (no infection). Regarding the descriptive characteristics of the sample, were found a higher frequency of female individuals (59.3%), between 36 and 50 years of age (36.7%), with low education level (91%) and income monthly up to 1 minimum wage (67.8%). The serology, performed by three techniques of different principles, had a reactivity of 38.9% by Indirect Hemagglutination, 39.7% by ELISA and 38.7% by Indirect Immunofluorescence. As the result of the serology, 71 of samples showed reactivity in 2 or more techniques. On some risk variables, was found a significant relationship between individuals who had been bitten by the triatomines and had positive serology for Chagas disease (93.3%). Other variables of risk revealed individuals who had positive serology and had domestic animal (80.3%), lived in poorly maintained homes (97.2%) and near the forest (84.5%). A better understanding of the dynamics of transmission of T. cruzi and the risk factors that contribute to its occurrence in a region are needed to develop effective strategies for control of Chagas disease in these áreas

Análise econômica da produção de frango de corte sob condições de risco no estado do Paraná

A avicultura de corte constitui-se numa importante atividade econômica no estado do Paraná e, como qualquer outra, está sujeita a riscos. Objetivou-se, neste trabalho, proceder à análise econômica da produção integrada de frango de corte, avaliando os riscos, considerando os sistemas climatizado, automático e manual. Utilizando-se as variáveis de risco: preço do produto, produtividade e custos de produção foi possível identificar as principais fontes de risco e sua influência na renda líquida. Os resultados apontaram que a rentabilidade da atividade é mais sensível aos componentes da receita do que de custos, sendo o preço a variável de maior sensibilidade. Verificou-se também que o aviário climatizado apresenta possibilidades de prejuízo mais alto para menores níveis de risco e, à medida que o risco aumenta, oferece retornos mais interessantes, em comparação aos sistemas automático e manual. O sistema manual foi o que passou a apresentar retorno a níveis de risco maior (acima de 25%).

Corrective eyeglasses and medial canthal basal cell carcinoma: a case-control study

Background Corrective eyeglasses are frequently worn by adults, particularly at older ages. Their lenses and frames provide ultraviolet protection. Medial canthal basal cell carcinomas are infrequent (38%), and their relation with the use of corrective glasses was not yet investigated. Objectives To assess the prevalence of corrective eyeglasses use in individuals with medial canthal basal cell carcinoma. Methods Case-control study using two controls matched by age, gender, and ethnicity for each case. Cases were patients with medial canthal basal cell carcinoma, and controls were patients with basal cell carcinoma elsewhere on the face. The prevalence of major risk variables was estimated and adjusted by conditional multiple logistic regression. Results Fifty cases and 100 controls were assessed. The mean patient age was 69.7 years, and 54% of the subjects were females. No difference regarding the eyeglasses use or use duration was found between groups. However, when visual defects were separately evaluated, eyeglasses for myopia correction were independently associated with lower risk of medial canthal basal cell carcinoma development (OR = 0.26; P = 0.03), what can be related to long term local photoprotection. Conclusion The use of eyeglasses for myopia correction is associated with lower prevalence of medial cantal basal cell carcinoma. Risk-reducing mechanisms should be elucidated.

Associação entre condição periodontal de gestantes e variáveis maternas e de assistência à saúde

Objective: To evaluate the periodontal condition of pregnant women and to analyze the influence of maternal variables - socioeconomic-demographic data, health, deleterious habits and access to dental service - and the existence of the Family Health Program (FHP) at the public assistance services to pregnant women. Method: This evaluation was part of a cohort study with pregnant women and children conducted in two cities of the São Paulo State, one of which with an implemented FHP. Oral examinations were done using the Community Periodontal and Periodontal Attachment Loss Indexes, and semi-structured interviews with the pregnant women at their homes. Data were analyzed statistically by the chi-square test and Fisher's exact test at 5% significance level (α=0.05). Results: All pregnant women (n=119) registered at the public health service of each city were examined. The mean age was 24.7 years; 61.4% were black or black/white mixed-race women; most (65.5%) earned 2-3 minimum wages, and only 6.7% initiated higher education. Only 8% of the patients presented periodontal health. Bleeding and calculus were observed in 66% of them, and shallow and deep periodontal pockets in 20%. Periodontal attachment loss > 4 mm was observed in 24% of the pregnant women. The group was homogeneous as to the maternal characteristics, age (p=0.0384) and smoking (p=0.0102) being the only factors associated with periodontal disease. The existence of a FHP at the public assistance service was not associated with a lower prevalence of the disease. Conclusion: The findings of this study show a high prevalence of periodontal alterations during pregnancy, with no influence from the existence of a FHP on the observed conditions. Among the risk variables, age and smoking were the factors associated with the presence of periodontal disease. There is a need for a better planing and accomplishment of oral health actions during the prenatal period.

Citricultura na região sul paulista: modelo de previsão econômica para tomada de decisão em condições de risco

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Associação de variáveis ambientais à ocorrência de leptospirose canina e humana na cidade de São Paulo

Foi realizada uma análise espacial da ocorrência de leptospirose humana e canina na Supervisão de Vigilância em Saúde do Butantã, situada no município de São Paulo, no ano de 2007, associada a variáveis ambientais de risco, tais como: focos de enchente e áreas de desratização. Foram encontrados aglomerados espaciais de pontos de alagamentos em 12 setores censitários e de casos de leptospirose humana em quatro setores censitários, sem correlação entre ambos. Não foram encontrados agrupamentos de casos em cães, possivelmente devido à subnotificação. As proporções casos humanos de leptospirose : população humana dentro e fora da área de desratização foram 7:199.600 e 9:257.980, respectivamente. Conclui-se que medidas de controle de roedores como a desratização foram responsáveis pela minimização dos efeitos dos fatores de risco para a transmissão de leptospirose para humanos.

Explaining turn of the year order flow imbalance

The paper provides evidence of a turn of the year effect in the order flow imbalance of both retail and institutional investors. In December there is net selling pressure which is reversed in January. We examine high frequency intraday order flow information and find that the changes in order flow imbalance between December and January are related to firm risk factors and characteristics. We find that retail order flow imbalances are associated with a wide range of risk characteristics including beta, illiquidity and unsystematic risk. Imbalances in institutional order flow are associated with only a small number of risk variables. We show that these order flow changes are important because risk premiums are elevated in January. Our results are robust to the effects of decimalization.

Duelo, ansiedad y depresión en familiares de pacientes en una unidad de cuidados paliativos a los dos meses de la pérdida

Aim: This study is going to assess the prevalance of prolonged grief diagnoses and it will evaluate the severity of the symptoms of depression, anxiety and complicated grief two months after a loved one is lost. We also intend to study which variables associated with the risk of grief could be more decisive when diagnosing it, its symptoms and the consequent emotional distress.Method: A total of 66 families of patients in the Palliative Care Unit (PCU) at Hospital San Cecilio in Granada have been evaluated. Measurements were taken two months after the death. This investigation has explored the existing emotional distress using the following questionnaires: Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II), Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI), Inventory of Complicated Grief (ICG) and Prolongued Grief Disorder (PG-12).Results: The results show that 33.3% and 21.21% of the sufferers had high levels of depression and clinical anxiety two months after the death. The prevalence of prolongued grief diagnoses, according to the PG-12, is 10.6% and 53.03% of the participants showed symptoms of complicated grief according to the ICG. Additionally, statistically significant differences are found in the sufferers with and without a prolongued grief diagnosis and scores in the ICG and BDI-II. The family’s financial situation is linked to the presence of symptoms of anxiety and depression and complicated grief, with the most determining variable being the risk of grief. Finally, the greater the age of the deceased and the longer the time spent in the PCU is linked to fewer symptoms of grief. However, important links have been found between the sufferers who have experienced stressful critical events prior to losing their loved one, with symptoms of depression, anxiety and complicated grief.Conclusions: The high numbers of cases of symptoms of complicated grief and levels of anxiety and clinical depression two months after a death suggests that early interventions should be carried out in those individuals with greater vulnerability.

Modelo de Scoring para o Crédito à Habitação: Um estudo de caso em Portugal

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Riesgos psicosociales en trabajadores de una empresa agrícola y alimenticia en chile 2016.

RESUMEN INTRODUCCION: Los riesgos psicosociales en los últimos años han venido tomando importancia debido a que están íntimamente relacionados con el desarrollo de enfermedades producidas por el estrés tanto en la población general como en la comunidad trabajadora. De esta manera los riesgos psicosociales se convierten en un foco de interés cuando de prevención en el trabajo se trata. OBJETIVO: Identificar los factores de riesgo psicosocial a los cuales se encuentran expuestos los trabajadores de una empresa agrícola y alimenticia ubicada en Chile en el año 2016. MÉTODOS: Se llevó a cabo un estudio de corte transversal con datos secundarios procedentes de 194 trabajadores. Se incluyeron variables socio-demográficas, laborales y las relacionadas con el riesgo psicosocial. Como instrumento se utilizó el cuestionario ISTAS 21, que permite la evaluación y prevención de dicho riesgo, mide las dimensiones de la exposición psicosocial y de la salud, el estrés y la satisfacción. En el análisis descriptivo en las variables cuantitativas se calcularon las medidas de tendencia central media, mediana y medidas de dispersión como rango y desviación estándar. En las cualitativas se calculó la frecuencia absoluta y porcentaje, se utilizó el programa estadístico SPSS versión 22. RESULTADOS: El mínimo de edad fue de 25 y el máximo de 55 años. Los grupos etarios predominantes fueron entre 25-30 años y 36-45 años. Se observó que la mayoría de los miembros de esta organización estuvo conformada por hombres. El nivel alto de riesgo psicosocial percibido por los trabajadores por porcentaje en tres de las cinco dimensiones se registró de la siguiente manera: Trabajo activo y posibilidades de desarrollo (48.5%); apoyo social y calidad de liderazgo (52.0%) y doble presencia (52.6%). Las subdimensiones que más se vieron afectadas por el riesgo alto fueron: influencia en el trabajo (69.4%); control sobre el tiempo de trabajo (53.1%); posibilidades de desarrollo en el trabajo (50.0%); claridad de rol (66.8%); calidad de la relación con superiores (52.6%), compañeros (48.8%) y carga de tareas domésticas (50.0%). CONCLUSIONES: El nivel de riesgo psicosocial percibido por los trabajadores fue de Riesgo Alto en tres de las cinco dimensiones del cuestionario SUSESO ISTAS-21 (dimensión Trabajo activo y posibilidades de desarrollo; apoyo social y calidad de liderazgo y doble presencia). A partir de estos hallazgos se concluye que si hay presencia importante de situaciones desfavorables para la salud mental de los trabajadores y un riesgo psicosocial alto que es necesario enfrentar a través de la implementación de estrategias encaminadas a reducir el riesgo en las subdimensiones que más alto riesgo presentaron.

Health risk behavior pattern among students from Cartagena, Colombia: prevalence and associated variables

The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and variables associated with the pattern of risky health behavior (PRHB) among adolescent students in Cartagena, Colombia. A cross-sectional study was designed to investigate PRHB in a random cluster sample of students from middle and high schools. The associations were adjusted by logistic regression. A total of 2,625 students participated in this research, with ages from 10 to 20 years, mean=13.8 years (SD=2.0), and 54.3% were women. A total of 332 students reported PRHB (12.7%, 95%CI 11.4–14.0). Age over 15 years (OR=2.19, 95%CI 1.72–2.79), not being heterosexual (OR=1.98, 95%CI 1.36-2.87), poor/mediocre academic performance (OR=1.87, 95%CI 1.47–2.38), family dysfunction (OR=1.78, 95%CI 1.40–2.28) and male gender (OR=1.58, 95%CI 1.24–2.01) were associated with PRHB. One in every eight students presented a PRHB. It is important to pay greater attention to students who are over 15 years of age, male, not heterosexual, with a poor/mediocre academic performance and a dysfunctional family.

Linking community variables to parenting behaviours and youth risk behaviours

The puq)ose of this thesis is to test a model Hnking community disadvantage and urbanicity factors to parenting variables (i.e., monitoring, warmth, and knowledge) and to youth risk behavior (i.e., substance use and delinquency), measured both concurrently and one year after the assessment of parenting variables. The model builds on the work of Fletcher, Steinberg, and Williams-Wheeler (2004) but a) includes a more comprehensive measure of SES than that conceptualized by Fletcher et al.; b) considers whether the role of community disadvantage is indirectly as well as directly linked to youth risk behavior, by way of its association with parenting variables; c) considers whether level of community urbanicity plays a direct role in predicting both parenting variables and risk behaviors, or whether its influence on risk behaviours is primarily indirect through parenting variables. Both community disadvantage and urbanicity had virtually no relation to parenting and risk behaviour variables. Results found for relations of parenting variables and risk behaviour were similar to Fletcher et al. Although urban youth are typically perceived as being more at risk for substance use and delinquency, no evidence was found for a distinction between urban and rural youth within this sample. Targeting risk behaviour prevention/reduction programs toward only urban youth, therefore, is not supported by these findings.