Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Iowa Department of Revenue Performance Report FY2013

In our Strategic Plan, we identified three goals, and a number of strategies to achieve those goals. This Performance Plan summarizes our tactical steps toward achieving those goals. In the pages that follow, we highlight six noteworthy achievements. Thereafter, we have summarized the results of each of the measures identified in our Fiscal Year 2013 Performance Plan.

Iowa Department of Revenue Performance Report FY2014

In our Strategic Plan, we identified three goals, and a number of strategies to achieve those goals. This Performance Plan summarizes our tactical steps toward achieving those goals. In the pages that follow, we highlight six noteworthy achievements. Thereafter, we have summarized the results of each of the measures identified in our Fiscal Year 2014 Performance Plan.

Assessing e-procurement System for Improving the Purchasing Operations

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli luoda suunnitelma elektronisen hankintatoimen aloittamiseksi, analysoimalla nykyisiä ostoprosesseja ja konsernin laajuista elektronista hankintajärjestelmää. Työ pohjautuu yritysten väliseen elektroniseen kauppaan, elektroniseen hankintatoimeen ja systeemisuunnitteluun liittyvään kirjallisuuteen. Työssä tehdyn suunnitelman tarkoituksena on auttaa Siemens Oy:tä siirtymään uuteen elektroniseen ostotoimintaan. Elektroniselle ostotoiminnalle suunniteltiin tavoitteet ja näitä vastaavat vaatimukset. Elektronisen hankintajärjestelmän analysointi perustuu kirjallisuudessa esitettyihin järjestelmän elinkaari-mallin vaiheisiin. Analysoinnin tarkoituksena oli saada selville järjestelmän soveltuvuus Siemens Oy: n liiketoimintaympäristöön, prosesseihin ja vaatimuksiin. Elektronisen hankintatoiminnan etuja ovat liiketoiminta prosessien johtamisen parantuminen, kustannusten väheneminen sekä taloudellisen suorituskyvyn lisääntyminen. Elektronisen hankintatoiminnan aloittaminen vaatii kuitenkin huolellista suunnittelua. Työssä tehdyt suunnitelmat ja analysoinnit auttavat arvioidessa järjestelmän sopivuutta Siemens Oy: n vaatimuksiin. Oikean ja toimivan järjestelmän valinta ei kuitenkaan takaa elektronisesta hankintatoiminnasta hyötymistä. Tärkeimpiä jatkotoimenpiteitä onkin suorittaa kustannus/hyöty analyysi ja arvioida toimittajien halukkuutta ja kykyjä osallistua markkinapaikkaan.

Developing the Sourcing with the Purchasing Tool in the Chemical Company

The aim of this research was to investigate Tikkurila Oyj's Vantaa factories' current status in procurement and to develop the reporting of purchases and purchase warehouses, and to measure the activities during the implementation of the new purchasing tool. The implemented purchasing tool was based on ABC-analysis. Based on its reports the importance of performance measurements for the operations of the company, and the purpose of getting transparency to the company's supply chain on the part of purchasing were examined. A successful purchase- and material operation calls for accurate knowledge and professional skills. The research proved that with a separate purchasing tool, that analyses the existing information of the company's production management system, it is possible to get added value to whole supply chain's needs. The analyses and reports of the purchasing tool enable a more harmonized purchasing process at the operative level, and create a basis for internal targets and to their follow-up. At the same time the analyses clarify the current status and development trends of procurement fresh to the management. The increase of the possibilities of exploitation of information technology enables a perfect transparency to the case company's purchase department.

Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Assessment of purchasing maturity in spare parts supply chain

To describe the change of purchasing moving from administrative to strategic function academics have put forward maturity models which help practitioners to compare their purchasing activities to industry top performers and best practices. However, none of the models aim to distinguish the purchasing maturity from the after-sales point of view, even though after-sales activities are acknowledged as a relevant source of revenue, profit and competitive advantage in most manufacturing firms. The maturity of purchasing and supply management practices have a large impact to the overall performance of the spare parts supply chain and ultimately to the value creation and relationship building for the end customer. The research was done as a case study for a European after-sales organization which is part of a globally operating industrial firm specialized in heavy machinery. The study mapped the current state of the purchasing practices in the case organization and also distinguished the relevant areas for future development. The study was based on the purchasing maturity model developed by Schiele (2007) and investigated also how applicable is the maturity model in the spare parts supply chain context. Data for the assessment was gathered using five expert interviews inside the case organization and other parties involved in the company’s spare parts supply chain. Inventory management dimension was added to the original maturity model in order to better capture the important areas in a spare parts supply chain. The added five questions were deduced from the spare parts management literature and verified as relevant areas by the case organization’s personnel. Results indicate that largest need for development in the case organization are: better collaboration between sourcing and operative procurement functions, use of installed base information in the spare parts management, training plan development for new buyers, assessment of aligned KPI’s between the supply chain parties and better defining the role of after-sales sourcing. The purchasing maturity model used in this research worked well in H&R Leading, Controlling and Inventory Management dimensions. The assessment was more difficult to conduct in the Supplier related processes, Process integration and Organizational structure –dimensions, mainly because the assessment in these sections would for some parts require more company-wide assessment. Results indicate also that the purchasing maturity model developed by Schiele (2007) captures the relevant areas in the spare parts supply as well.

Linking supplier delivery risk to outbound delivery service performance improvement

Customer satisfaction should be the main focus for all of the parts of the business. Usually supply chain behind the business is in a key role when this focus is pursued especially in repair service business. When focusing on the materials that are needed to make repairs to equipment under service contracts, the time aspect of quality is critical. Do late deliveries from supplier have an effect on the service performance of repairs when distribution center of a centralized purchasing unit is acting as a buffer between suppliers and repair service business? And if so, how should the improvement efforts be prioritized? These are the two main questions that this thesis focuses on. Correlation and linear regression was tested between service levels of supplier and distribution center. Percentage of on-time deliveries were compared to outbound delivery service level. It was found that there is statistically significant correlation between inbound and outbound operations success. The other main question of the thesis, improvement prioritization, was answered by creating material availability based supplier classification and additional to that, by developing the decision process for the analysis of most critical suppliers. This was built on a basis of previous supplier and material classification methods.

Improving purchasing process for small purchases at a manufacturing company in chemical industry

This thesis was conducted on assignment by a multinational chemical corporation as a case study. The purpose of this study is to find ways to improve the purchasing process for small purchases at the case company. The improvements looked after are mainly cost and time savings. Purchasing process is the process that starts from the requisition of goods or services and ends when the invoice is paid. In this thesis the purchases with value less than 1000€ are considered to be small. The theoretical framework of the thesis consists of general theoretical view of costs and performance of the purchasing process, different types of purchasing processes and a model for improving purchasing processes. The categorization to small and large purchases is the most important followed by the division between direct and indirect purchases. Also models that provide more strategic perspective for categorization were found to be useful. Auditing and managerial control are important parts of the purchasing process. When considering the transaction costs of purchasing from the costs–benefits perspective large and small purchases should not have the same processes. Purchasing cards, e-procurement and vendor managed inventory are seen as an alternative to the traditional purchasing process. The empirical data collection was done by interviewing the company employees that take part of the purchasing process in their daily work. The interviews had open-ended questions and the answers were coded and analyzed. The results consist of process description and assessment as well as suggestions for potential improvements. At the case company the basic purchasing process was similar to the traditional purchasing process that is entirely done with computers and online. For some categories there was already more sophisticated e-procurement solutions in use. To improve the current e-procurement based solutions elimination of authorization workflow and better information exchange can be seen as potential improvements for most of the case purchases. Purchasing cards and a lightweight form of vendor managed inventory can be seen as potential improvements for some categories. Implementing the changes incurs at least some cost and the benefits might be hard to measure. This thesis has revealed that the small purchases have potential for significant cost and time savings at the case company.

The performance of open-end Brazilian fixed income mutual funds for retail clients

From a financial perspective, this dissertation analyzes the Brazilian mutual fund industry performance for an average retail client. The most representative funds for the local population, that are the fixed income open-end ones, will be selected and their performance will be measured aiming to answer if clients of this industry obtained a proper return over their investments in the period between August 2010 and August 2013. A proper return will be understood as the preservation of the purchasing power of the individual´s savings, what is achieved with a positive performance of a mutual fund after discounting taxes, administrative fees and inflation. After obtaining an answer for the previous question, this dissertation will explore a possible alternative solution: Tesouro Direto, that is an example of a financial approach that could foster the disintermediation between savings and investments through electronic channels. New electronic platforms, with a broader scope, could be utilized to increase the efficiency of funding productive investments through better remunerating Brazilian savings. Tesouro Direto may point towards a new paradigm.

Quality management, environmental management maturity, green supply chain practices and green performance of Brazilian companies with ISO 14001 certification: Direct and indirect effects

This study aims to test a new conceptual model based on the relationship between quality management (QM), environmental management maturity (EMM), adoption of external practices of green supply chain management (GSCM) (green purchasing and collaboration with customers) and green performance (GP) with data from 95 Brazilian firms with ISO 14001. To our knowledge, such links and relationships are not simultaneously identified and tested in the literature. The results indicate the validation of all of the research hypotheses. This paper highlights that an improvement in green performance will require attention to quality management, environmental management maturity, and green supply chain. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quality management, environmental management maturity, green supply chain practices and green performance of Brazilian companies with ISO 14001 certification: Direct and indirect effects (Reprint from vol 67C, pg 39-51)

This study aims to test a new conceptual model based on the relationship between quality management (QM), environmental management maturity (EMM), adoption of external practices of green supply chain management (GSCM) (green purchasing and collaboration with customers) and green performance (GP) with data from 95 Brazilian firms with ISO 14001. To our knowledge, such links and relationships are not simultaneously identified and tested in the literature. The results indicate the validation of all of the research hypotheses. This paper highlights that an improvement in green performance will require attention to quality management, environmental management maturity, and green supply chain.

Análise da performance ambiental e a capacitação profissional rural na produção de soja e milho no estado de Mato Grosso

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB