Hitting emissions targets with (statistical) confidence in multi-instrument Emissions Trading Schemes

A means of assessing, monitoring and controlling aggregate emissions from multi-instrument Emissions Trading Schemes is proposed. The approach allows contributions from different instruments with different forms of emissions targets to be integrated. Where Emissions Trading Schemes are helping meet specific national targets, the approach allows the entry requirements of new participants to be calculated and set at a level that will achieve these targets. The approach is multi-levelled, and may be extended downwards to support pooling of participants within instruments, or upwards to embed Emissions Trading Schemes within a wider suite of policies and measures with hard and soft targets. Aggregate emissions from each instrument are treated stochastically. Emissions from the scheme as a whole are then the joint probability distribution formed by integrating the emissions from its instruments. Because a Bayesian approach is adopted, qualitative and semi-qualitative data from expert opinion can be used where quantitative data is not currently available, or is incomplete. This approach helps government retain sufficient control over emissions trading scheme targets to allow them to meet their emissions reduction obligations, while minimising the need for retrospectively adjusting existing participants’ conditions of entry. This maintains participant confidence, while providing the necessary policy levers for good governance.

A method for assessing confidence in requirements analysis

Context: During development managers, analysts and designers often need to know whether enough requirements analysis work has been done and whether or not it is safe to proceed to the design stage. Objective: This paper describes a new, simple and practical method for assessing our confidence in a set of requirements. Method: We identified 4 confidence factors and used a goal oriented framework with a simple ordinal scale to develop a method for assessing confidence. We illustrate the method and show how it has been applied to a real systems development project. Results: We show how assessing confidence in the requirements could have revealed problems in this project earlier and so saved both time and money. Conclusion: Our meta-level assessment of requirements provides a practical and pragmatic method that can prove useful to managers, analysts and designers who need to know when sufficient requirements analysis has been performed.

Can we have confidence in generic structures?

The system dynamics concept of `generic structure' is dividable into three sub-types. This paper analyses the validity of these three, using both practical and theoretical perspectives. Firstly, a new set of measures is developed for generating validity-`confidence'-amongst a group using generic structures in a practical modelling situation. It is concluded that different confidence criteria are implicitly employed; there is an argument for trading-off model precision and analytical quality for simplicity and ease of use and future research is needed to combine these `process' and `content' aspects of confidence. From a theoretical stance it is shown that with two of the sub-types a scientific notion of confidence is achievable whereas the third (`archetypes') involves merely metaphorical thinking. It is concluded that the theoretical status of archetypes requires further development, whilst ensuring that its benefits are retained.

The Optimal Confidence Region for a Random Parameter

Under a two-level hierarchical model, suppose that the distribution of the random parameter is known or can be estimated well. Data are generated via a fixed, but unobservable realization of this parameter. In this paper, we derive the smallest confidence region of the random parameter under a joint Bayesian/frequentist paradigm. On average this optimal region can be much smaller than the corresponding Bayesian highest posterior density region. The new estimation procedure is appealing when one deals with data generated under a highly parallel structure, for example, data from a trial with a large number of clinical centers involved or genome-wide gene-expession data for estimating individual gene- or center-specific parameters simultaneously. The new proposal is illustrated with a typical microarray data set and its performance is examined via a small simulation study.

Improving classification using a Confidence Matrix based on weak classifiers applied to OCR

This paper proposes a new feature representation method based on the construction of a Confidence Matrix (CM). This representation consists of posterior probability values provided by several weak classifiers, each one trained and used in different sets of features from the original sample. The CM allows the final classifier to abstract itself from discovering underlying groups of features. In this work the CM is applied to isolated character image recognition, for which several set of features can be extracted from each sample. Experimentation has shown that the use of CM permits a significant improvement in accuracy in most cases, while the others remain the same. The results were obtained after experimenting with four well-known corpora, using evolved meta-classifiers with the k-Nearest Neighbor rule as a weak classifier and by applying statistical significance tests.

Implementing the Physical Literacy Component of the 2015 Ontario Health and Physical Education Curriculum: Is the Stage Set?

Introduction: Current physical activity levels among children and youth are alarmingly low; a mere 7% of children and youth are meeting the Canadian Physical Activity Guidelines (Colley et al., 2011), which means that the vast majority of this population is at risk of developing major health problems in adulthood (Janssen & Leblanc, 2010). These high inactivity rates may be related to suboptimal experiences in sport and physical activity stemming from a lack of competence and confidence (Lubans, Morgan, Cliff, Barnett, & Okely, 2010). Developing a foundation of physical literacy can encourage and maintain lifelong physical activity, yet this does not always occur naturally as a part of human growth (Hardman, 2011). An ideal setting to foster the growth and development of physical literacy is physical education class. Physical education class can offer all children and youth an equal opportunity to learn and practice the skills needed to be active for life (Hardman, 2011). Elementary school teachers are responsible for delivering the physical education curriculum, and it is important to understand their will and capacity as the implementing agents of physical literacy development curriculum (McLaughlin, 1987). Purpose: The purpose of this study was to explore the physical literacy component of the 2015 Ontario Health and Physical Education curriculum policy through the eyes of key informants, and to explore the resources available for the implementation of this new policy. Methods: Qualitative interviews were conducted with seven key informants of the curriculum policy development, including two teachers. In tandem with the interviews, a resource inventory and curriculum review were conducted to assess the content and availability of physical literacy resources. All data were analyzed through the lens of Hogwood and Gunn’s (1984) 10 preconditions for policy implementation. Results: Participants discussed how implementation is affected by: accountability, external capacity, internal capacity, awareness and understanding of physical literacy, implementation expertise, and policy climate. Discussion: Participants voiced similar opinions on most issues, and the overall lack of attention given to physical education programs in schools will continue to be a major dilemma when trying to combat such high physical inactivity levels.

Australian and New Zealand practice in intensive care (ANZPIC II): Predictors of physician confidence to diagnose pneumonia and determine illness severity in ventilated patients

The manner in which elements of clinical history, physical examination and investigations influence subjectively assessed illness severity and outcome prediction is poorly understood. This study investigates the relationship between clinician and objectively assessed illness severity and the factors influencing clinician's diagnostic confidence and illness severity rating for ventilated patients with suspected pneumonia in the intensive care unit (ICU). A prospective study of fourteen ICUs included all ventilated admissions with a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia. Data collection included pneumonia type - community-acquired (CAP), hospital-acquired (HAP) and ventilator-associated (VAP), clinician determined illness severity (CDIS), diagnostic methods, clinical diagnostic confidence (CDC), microbiological isolates and antibiotic use. For 476 episodes of pneumonia (48% CAP, 24% HAP, 28% VAP), CDC was greatest for CAP (64% CAP, 50% HAP and 49% VAP, P < 0.01) or when pneumonia was considered life-threatening (84% high CDC, 13% medium CDC and 3% low CDC, P < 0.001). Life-threatening pneumonia was predicted by worsening gas exchange (OR 4.8, CI 95% 2.3-10.2, P < 0.001), clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.0, CI 95% 1.2-3.2, P < 0.01) and the Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) Score (OR 1.1, CI 95% 1.1-1.2, P < 0.001). Diagnostic confidence increased with CDIS (OR 163, CI 95% 8.4-31.4, P < 0.001), definite pathogen isolation (OR 3.3, CI 95% 2.0-5.6) and clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.1, CI 95% 1.3-3.3, P = 0.001). Although the CDIS, SOFA Score and the Simplified Acute Physiologic Score (SAPS II) were all associated with mortality, the SAPS II Score was the best predictor of mortality (P = 0.02). Diagnostic confidence for pneumonia is moderate but increases with more classical presentations. A small set of clinical parameters influence subjective assessment. Objective assessment using SAPS II Scoring is a better predictor of mortality.

Conditional Confidence Interval for the Scale Parameter of a Weibull Distribution

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F25, 62F03.

Classifier PGN: Classification with High Confidence Rules

ACM Computing Classification System (1998): H.2.8, H.3.3.

Modulating membership grades to gain consensus for fuzzy set uncertainty values in a clinical decision support system

This paper deals with a very important issue in any knowledge engineering discipline: the accurate representation and modelling of real life data and its processing by human experts. The work is applied to the GRiST Mental Health Risk Screening Tool for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems. The complexity of risk data and the wide variations in clinicians' expert opinions make it difficult to elicit representations of uncertainty that are an accurate and meaningful consensus. It requires integrating each expert's estimation of a continuous distribution of uncertainty across a range of values. This paper describes an algorithm that generates a consensual distribution at the same time as measuring the consistency of inputs. Hence it provides a measure of the confidence in the particular data item's risk contribution at the input stage and can help give an indication of the quality of subsequent risk predictions. © 2010 IEEE.

Implementing the Physical Literacy Component of the 2015 Ontario Health and Physical Education Curriculum: Is the Stage Set?

Introduction: Current physical activity levels among children and youth are alarmingly low; a mere 7% of children and youth are meeting the Canadian Physical Activity Guidelines (Colley et al., 2011), which means that the vast majority of this population is at risk of developing major health problems in adulthood (Janssen & Leblanc, 2010). These high inactivity rates may be related to suboptimal experiences in sport and physical activity stemming from a lack of competence and confidence (Lubans, Morgan, Cliff, Barnett, & Okely, 2010). Developing a foundation of physical literacy can encourage and maintain lifelong physical activity, yet this does not always occur naturally as a part of human growth (Hardman, 2011). An ideal setting to foster the growth and development of physical literacy is physical education class. Physical education class can offer all children and youth an equal opportunity to learn and practice the skills needed to be active for life (Hardman, 2011). Elementary school teachers are responsible for delivering the physical education curriculum, and it is important to understand their will and capacity as the implementing agents of physical literacy development curriculum (McLaughlin, 1987). Purpose: The purpose of this study was to explore the physical literacy component of the 2015 Ontario Health and Physical Education curriculum policy through the eyes of key informants, and to explore the resources available for the implementation of this new policy. Methods: Qualitative interviews were conducted with seven key informants of the curriculum policy development, including two teachers. In tandem with the interviews, a resource inventory and curriculum review were conducted to assess the content and availability of physical literacy resources. All data were analyzed through the lens of Hogwood and Gunn’s (1984) 10 preconditions for policy implementation. Results: Participants discussed how implementation is affected by: accountability, external capacity, internal capacity, awareness and understanding of physical literacy, implementation expertise, and policy climate. Discussion: Participants voiced similar opinions on most issues, and the overall lack of attention given to physical education programs in schools will continue to be a major dilemma when trying to combat such high physical inactivity levels.

Metamorfose planar via métodos Level Set e Particle Level Set para a reconstrução de superfícies tridimensionais

Evolving interfaces were initially focused on solutions to scientific problems in Fluid Dynamics. With the advent of the more robust modeling provided by Level Set method, their original boundaries of applicability were extended. Specifically to the Geometric Modeling area, works published until then, relating Level Set to tridimensional surface reconstruction, centered themselves on reconstruction from a data cloud dispersed in space; the approach based on parallel planar slices transversal to the object to be reconstructed is still incipient. Based on this fact, the present work proposes to analyse the feasibility of Level Set to tridimensional reconstruction, offering a methodology that simultaneously integrates the proved efficient ideas already published about such approximation and the proposals to process the inherent limitations of the method not satisfactorily treated yet, in particular the excessive smoothing of fine characteristics of contours evolving under Level Set. In relation to this, the application of the variant Particle Level Set is suggested as a solution, for its intrinsic proved capability to preserve mass of dynamic fronts. At the end, synthetic and real data sets are used to evaluate the presented tridimensional surface reconstruction methodology qualitatively.

Metamorfose planar via métodos Level Set e Particle Level Set para a reconstrução de superfícies tridimensionais

Evolving interfaces were initially focused on solutions to scientific problems in Fluid Dynamics. With the advent of the more robust modeling provided by Level Set method, their original boundaries of applicability were extended. Specifically to the Geometric Modeling area, works published until then, relating Level Set to tridimensional surface reconstruction, centered themselves on reconstruction from a data cloud dispersed in space; the approach based on parallel planar slices transversal to the object to be reconstructed is still incipient. Based on this fact, the present work proposes to analyse the feasibility of Level Set to tridimensional reconstruction, offering a methodology that simultaneously integrates the proved efficient ideas already published about such approximation and the proposals to process the inherent limitations of the method not satisfactorily treated yet, in particular the excessive smoothing of fine characteristics of contours evolving under Level Set. In relation to this, the application of the variant Particle Level Set is suggested as a solution, for its intrinsic proved capability to preserve mass of dynamic fronts. At the end, synthetic and real data sets are used to evaluate the presented tridimensional surface reconstruction methodology qualitatively.

Creatina quinase e dor muscular tardia na musculação : estudo experimental em adultos e jovens com o "circuit weight training" e o "multiple set system"

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Expressão da proteína erbB-2 e dos receptores de hormônios na transição das regiões in situ para invasora de tumores da mama

OBJETIVOS: avaliar a expressão de erbB-2 e dos receptores hormonais para estrógeno e progesterona (RE/RP) nas regiões de transição entre as frações in situ e invasoras de neoplasias ductais da mama (CDIS e CDI, respectivamente). MÉTODOS: oitenta e cinco casos de neoplasias mamárias, contendo regiões contíguas de CDIS e CDI, foram selecionados. Espécimes histológicos das áreas de CDIS e de CDI foram obtidos através da técnica de tissue microarray (TMA). As expressões da erbB-2 e dos RE/RP foram avaliadas por meio de imunoistoquímica convencional. A comparação da expressão da erbB-2 e dos RE/RP nas frações in situ e invasoras da mama foi realizada com emprego do teste de McNemar. Os intervalos de confiança foram determinados em 5% (p=0,05). Foram calculados coeficientes de correlação intraclasse (ICC) para avaliar a concordância na tabulação cruzada da expressão de erbB-2 e RE/RP nas frações de CDIS e CDI. RESULTADOS: a expressão da erbB-2 não diferiu entre as áreas de CDIS e CDI (p=0,38). Comparando caso a caso suas áreas de CDIS e CDI, houve boa concordância na expressão da erbB-2 (coeficiente de correlação intraclasse, ICC=0,64), dos RP (ICC = 0,71) e dos RE (ICC = 0,64). Considerando apenas tumores cujo componente in situ apresentasse áreas de necrose (comedo), o ICC para erbB-2 foi de 0,4, comparado a 0,6 no conjunto completo de casos. Os ICC não diferiram substancialmente daqueles obtidos com o conjunto completo de espécimes em relação aos RE/RP: para RE, ICC=0,7 (versus 0,7 no conjunto completo), e para RP, ICC=0,7 (versus 0,6 no conjunto completo). CONCLUSÕES: nossos achados sugerem que as expressões de erbB-2 e RE/RP não diferem nos componentes contíguos in situ e invasivo em tumores ductais da mama.