Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models

Este documento estima modelos lineales y no-lineales de corrección de errores para los precios spot de cuatro tipos de café. En concordancia con las leyes económicas, se encuentra evidencia que cuando los precios están por encima de su nivel de equilibrio, retornan a éste mas lentamente que cuando están por debajo. Esto puede reflejar el hecho que, en el corto plazo, para los países productores de café es mas fácil restringir la oferta para incrementar precios, que incrementarla para reducirlos. Además, se encuentra evidencia que el ajuste es más rápido cuando las desviaciones del equilibrio son mayores. Los pronósticos que se obtienen a partir de los modelos de corrección de errores no lineales y asimétricos considerados en el trabajo, ofrecen una leve mejoría cuando se comparan con los pronósticos que resultan de un modelo de paseo aleatorio.

Prosodic Morphology : Gender in Arabic Perfect Active and Passive 3rd Person Singular Verbs

Prosodic /template Morphology, that "draws heavily on the theoretical apparatus and formalisms of the generative phonology model known as autosegmental phonology" (Katamba, F. 1993: 154), is the best analysis that can handle Arabic morphology. Verbs in Arabic are represented on three independent tiers: root tier, the skeletal tier and the vocalic melody tier (Katamba, F. 1993). Vowel morphemes, which are represented by diacritics, are inserted within the consonant morphemes, which are represented by primary symbols, to form words. The morpheme tier hypothesis paves the way to understand the nonconcatenative Arabic morphology. This paper analyzes gender in perfect active and passive 3rd person singular verbs on the basis of PM. The focus of the analysis shall be drawn heavily on the most common Arabic verbs; triconsonantal verbs, with brief introduction of the less common verbs; quadriconsonantal perfect active and passive masculine and feminine 3rd person singular verbs. I shall, too, cast the light on some vowel changes that some verbs undergo when voice changes.

Novel active and passive anti-vibration mountings

This paper investigates a novel design approach for a vibration isolator for use in space structures. The approach used can particularly be applicable for aerospace structures that support high precision instrumentation such as satellite payloads. The isolator is a space-frame structure that is folded in on itself to act as a mechanical filter over a defined frequency range. The absence of viscoelastic elements in such a mounting makes the design suitable for use in a vacuum and in high temperature or harsh environments with no risk of drift in alignment of the structure. The design uses a genetic algorithm based geometric optimisation routine to maximise passive vibration isolation, and this is hybridised with a geometric feasibility search. To complement the passive isolation system, an active system is incorporated in the design to add damping. Experimental work to validate the feasibility of the approach is also presented, with the active/passive structure achieving transmissibility of about 19 dB over a range of 1-250 Hz. It is shown here that the use of these novel anti-vibration mountings has no or little consequent weight and cost penalties whilst maintaining their effectiveness with the vibration levels. The approach should pave the way for the design of anti-vibration mountings that can be used between most pieces of equipment and their supporting structure. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of active and passive forces of the pelvic floor muscles in women with and without stress urinary incontinence

Background: The reduction of the pelvic floor muscles (PFM) strength is a major cause of stress urinary incontinence (SUI). Objective: To compare active and passive forces, and vaginal cavity aperture in continent and stress urinary incontinent women. Method: The study included a total of thirty-two women, sixteen continent women (group 1 - G1) and sixteen women with SUI (group 2 - G2). To evaluate PFM passive and active forces in anteroposterior (sagittal plane) and left-right directions (frontal plane) a stainless steel specular dynamometer was used. Results: The anteroposterior active strength for the continent women (mean +/- standard deviation) (0.3 +/- 0.2 N) was greater compared to the values found in the evaluation of incontinent women (0.1 +/- 0.1 N). The left-right active strength (G1=0.43 +/- 0.1 N; G2=0.40 +/- 0.1 N), the passive force (G1=1.1 +/- 0.2 N; G2=1.1 +/- 0.3 N) and the vaginal cavity aperture (G1=21 +/- 3 mm; G2=24 +/- 4 mm) did not differ between groups 1 and 2. Conclusion: The function evaluation of PFM showed that women with SUI had a lower anteroposterior active strength compared to continent women.

Effects of active and passive lacebacks on antero-posterior position of maxillary first molars and central incisors

The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of active and passive lacebacks on antero-posterior position of maxillary first molars and central incisors during leveling phase. Twenty-three subjects with Class I and Class II malocclusion were treated with first premolars extraction using preadjusted appliances (MBT 0.022-inch brackets). The leveling phase was performed with stainless steel archwires only. The sample was divided into 2 groups: 14 subjects received active lacebacks (Group 1) and 9 subjects received passive lacebacks (Group 2). Lacebacks were made from 0.008-inch ligature wire. Lateral cephalometric radiographs were taken pre- and post-leveling phase. Student's t-test was applied to determine the differences between pre- and post-leveling mean values and to determine the mean differences between groups. In Group I, the first molars showed a significant mesial movement, whereas no change was observed in Group 2. In both groups, maxillary central incisor crowns moved to lingual side. In conclusion, active laceback produced anchorage loss of maxillary first molars whereas passive laceback did not affect the position of these teeth. Active and passive lacebacks were effective in preventing central incisor proclination.

A new snowfall detection algorithm for high latitude regions based on a combination of active and passive sensors

Precipitation retrieval over high latitudes, particularly snowfall retrieval over ice and snow, using satellite-based passive microwave spectrometers, is currently an unsolved problem. The challenge results from the large variability of microwave emissivity spectra for snow and ice surfaces, which can mimic, to some degree, the spectral characteristics of snowfall. This work focuses on the investigation of a new snowfall detection algorithm specific for high latitude regions, based on a combination of active and passive sensors able to discriminate between snowing and non snowing areas. The space-borne Cloud Profiling Radar (on CloudSat), the Advanced Microwave Sensor units A and B (on NOAA-16) and the infrared spectrometer MODIS (on AQUA) have been co-located for 365 days, from October 1st 2006 to September 30th, 2007. CloudSat products have been used as truth to calibrate and validate all the proposed algorithms. The methodological approach followed can be summarised into two different steps. In a first step, an empirical search for a threshold, aimed at discriminating the case of no snow, was performed, following Kongoli et al. [2003]. This single-channel approach has not produced appropriate results, a more statistically sound approach was attempted. Two different techniques, which allow to compute the probability above and below a Brightness Temperature (BT) threshold, have been used on the available data. The first technique is based upon a Logistic Distribution to represent the probability of Snow given the predictors. The second technique, defined Bayesian Multivariate Binary Predictor (BMBP), is a fully Bayesian technique not requiring any hypothesis on the shape of the probabilistic model (such as for instance the Logistic), which only requires the estimation of the BT thresholds. The results obtained show that both methods proposed are able to discriminate snowing and non snowing condition over the Polar regions with a probability of correct detection larger than 0.5, highlighting the importance of a multispectral approach.

Global scale investigation of cirrus clouds properties using active and passive sensors

A year of satellite-borne lidar CALIOP data is analyzed and statistics on occurrence and distribution of bulk properties of cirri are provided. The relationship between environmental and cloud physical parameters and the shape of the backscatter profile (BSP) is investigated. It is found that CALIOP BSP is mainly affected by cloud geometrical thickness while only minor impacts can be attributed to other quantities such as optical depth or temperature. To fit mean BSPs as functions of geometrical thickness and position within the cloud layer, polynomial functions are provided. It is demonstrated that, under realistic hypotheses, the mean BSP is linearly proportional to the IWC profile. The IWC parameterization is included into the RT-RET retrieval algorithm, that is exploited to analyze infrared radiance measurements in presence of cirrus clouds during the ECOWAR field campaign. Retrieved microphysical and optical properties of the observed cloud are used as input parameters in a forward RT simulation run over the 100-1100 cm-1 spectral interval and compared with interferometric data to test the ability of the current single scattering properties database of ice crystal to reproduce realistic optical features. Finally a global scale investigation of cirrus clouds is performed by developing a collocation algorithm that exploits satellite data from multiple sensors (AIRS, CALIOP, MODIS). The resulting data set is utilized to test a new infrared hyperspectral retrieval algorithm. Retrieval products are compared to data and in particular the cloud top height (CTH) product is considered for this purpose. A better agreement of the retrieval with the CALIOP CTH than MODIS is found, even if some cases of underestimation and overestimation are observed.

The independent role of prenatal and postnatal exposure to active and passive smoking on the development of early wheeze in children.

Maternal smoking during pregnancy increases childhood asthma risk, but health effects in children of nonsmoking mothers passively exposed to tobacco smoke during pregnancy are unclear. We examined the association of maternal passive smoking during pregnancy and wheeze in children aged ≤2 years.Individual data of 27 993 mother-child pairs from 15 European birth cohorts were combined in pooled analyses taking into consideration potential confounders.Children with maternal exposure to passive smoking during pregnancy and no other smoking exposure were more likely to develop wheeze up to the age of 2 years (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20) compared with unexposed children. Risk of wheeze was further increased by children's postnatal passive smoke exposure in addition to their mothers' passive exposure during pregnancy (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.19-1.40) and highest in children with both sources of passive exposure and mothers who smoked actively during pregnancy (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.59-1.88). Risk of wheeze associated with tobacco smoke exposure was higher in children with an allergic versus nonallergic family history.Maternal passive smoking exposure during pregnancy is an independent risk factor for wheeze in children up to the age of 2 years. Pregnant females should avoid active and passive exposure to tobacco smoke for the benefit of their children's health.

Application of active and passive suspension techniques to improve high speed ground vehicle performance - phase II. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of University Research, Washington, D.C.

Active and passive immunization against oral Candida albicans infection in a murine model

Background/aims: Clinical and laboratory studies are consistent with a major role for cell-mediated immunity in recovery from oral infection with Candida albicans, but the role of humoral immunity remains controversial. The purpose of this study was to establish the relative contributions of cellular and humoral immunity to protection against oral candidiasis in a murine model, and to determine whether host responses could be enhanced by different immunization strategies. Results: Active oral immunization was protective in BALB/c and CBA/CaH mice, reducing both fungal burden and duration of infection after secondary challenge, whereas systemic immunization failed to protect against subsequent oral challenge. Candida-specific IgM was the predominant antibody detected in serum following both primary and secondary oral challenge; however, Candida-specific salivary IgA was not detectable. Immunization by passive transfer of either lymphocytes or immune serum did not confer any significant protection against oral infection in either susceptible or resistant mouse strain. Conclusion: The data demonstrate a possible role for mucosa-associated immunity following active immunization by the oral route, most likely exerted by local T lymphocytes resident in the oral mucosa, but there was no evidence to support a role for humoral immunity in protection against oral candidiasis.