Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 4 of 4: eliciting a conditional probability table

An introduction to eliciting a conditional probability table in a Bayesian Network model, highlighting three efficient methods for populating a CPT.

A decision table method for randomness measurement

Data quality has become a major concern for organisations. The rapid growth in the size and technology of a databases and data warehouses has brought significant advantages in accessing, storing, and retrieving information. At the same time, great challenges arise with rapid data throughput and heterogeneous accesses in terms of maintaining high data quality. Yet, despite the importance of data quality, literature has usually condensed data quality into detecting and correcting poor data such as outliers, incomplete or inaccurate values. As a result, organisations are unable to efficiently and effectively assess data quality. Having an accurate and proper data quality assessment method will enable users to benchmark their systems and monitor their improvement. This paper introduces a granules mining for measuring the random degree of error data which will enable decision makers to conduct accurate quality assessment and allocate the most severe data, thereby providing an accurate estimation of human and financial resources for conducting quality improvement tasks.

The Citizen’s Round Table process : canvassing public opinion on energy technologies to mitigate climate change

This study draws on communication accommodation theory, social identity theory and cognitive dissonance theory to drive a ‘Citizen’s Round Table’ process that engages community audiences on energy technologies and strategies that potentially mitigate climate change. The study examines the effectiveness of the process in determining the strategies that engage people in discussion. The process is designed to canvas participants’ perspectives and potential reactions to the array of renewable and non-renewable energy sources, in particular, underground storage of CO2. Ninety-five people (12 groups) participated in the process. Questionnaires were administered three times to identify changes in attitudes over time, and analysis of video, audio-transcripts and observer notes enabled an evaluation of level of engagement and communication among participants. The key findings of this study indicate that the public can be meaningfully engaged in discussion on the politically sensitive issue of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) and other low emission technologies. The round table process was critical to participants’ engagement and led to attitude change towards some methods of energy production. This study identifies a process that can be used successfully to explore community attitudes on politically-sensitive topics and encourages an examination of attitudes and potential attitude change.

Dads at the dinner table a cross-sectional study of Australian fathers' child feeding perceptions and practices

Maternal perceptions and practices regarding child feeding have been extensively studied in the context of childhood overweight and obesity. To date, there is scant evidence on the role of fathers in child feeding. This cross-sectional study aimed to identify whether characteristics of fathers and their concerns about their children’s risk of overweight were associated with child feeding perceptions and practices. Questionnaires were used to collect data from 436 Australian fathers (mean age = 37 years, SD = 6) of a child (53% boys) aged between 2-5 years (M = 3.5 years, SD = 0.9). These data included a range of demographic variables and selected subscales from the Child Feeding Questionnaire on concern about child weight, perceived responsibility for child feeding and controlling practices (pressure to eat and restriction). Multivariable linear regression was used to examine associations between demographic variables and fathers’ feeding perceptions and practices. Results indicated that fathers’ who were more concerned about their child becoming overweight reported higher perceived responsibility for child feeding and were more controlling of what and how much their child eats. Greater time commitment to paid work, possessing a health care card (indicative of socioeconomic disadvantage) and younger child age were associated with fathers’ perceiving less responsibility for feeding. Factors such as paternal BMI and education level, as well as child gender were not associated with feeding perceptions or practices. This study contributes to the extant literature on fathers’ role in child feeding, revealing several implications for research and interventions in the child feeding field.

Gambling on gambling in Baccarat : financial implications of raising bet limits and table differentials

The house advantage for Baccarat is known, hence the theoretical win can be determined. What is impractical to theoretically determine is the frequency and financial implications of extreme events, for example, prolonged winning streaks coupled with various betting patterns. The simulation herein provides such granularity. We explore the effect of following the „hot hand‟, that is, rapidly escalating bets when players are on a winning streak. To minimize their exposure, casino management sets a table bet maximum as well as a table differential. These figures can and do serve as a means to differentiate one casino from another. As the allowable bet maximum increases so does the total amount bet, which increases the theoretical winnings, thus suggesting that a high bet limit and differential is beneficial for the house. However, the greater are these amounts, the greater the number of shoes that end with players losing relative to a constant betting scenario (the number of times a player wins at all can drop from ~47% of the time to less than a quarter); but there will, on occasion, be more extreme payouts to players. This simulation is therefore intended to help casino managers set betting limits that maximize total winnings while bearing in mind both the likelihood and magnitude of negative outcomes to the casino.

Groundwater table response to sea level rise and its impact on pavement structure

It has been predicted that sea level will rise about 0.8 m by 2100. Consequently, seawater can intrude into the coastal aquifers and change the level of groundwater table. A raise in groundwater table due to seawater intrusion threats the coastal infrastructure such as road pavements. The mechanical properties of subgrade materials will change due to elevated rise of groundwater table, leading to pavement weakening and decreasing the subgrade strength and stiffness. This paper presents an assessment of the vulnerability of subgrade in coastal areas to change in groundwater table due to sea-level rise. A simple bathtub approach is applied for estimating the groundwater level changes according to sea-level rise. Then the effect of groundwater level changes on the soil water content (SWC) of a single column of fine-sand soil is simulated using MIKE SHE. The impact of an increase in moisture content on subgrade strength/stiffness is assessed for a number of scenarios.

Electrical imaging and fluid modeling of convective fingering in a shallow water-table aquifer

Unstable density-driven flow can lead to enhanced solute transport in groundwater. Only recently has the complex fingering pattern associated with free convection been documented in field settings. Electrical resistivity (ER) tomography has been used to capture a snapshot of convective instabilities at a single point in time, but a thorough transient analysis is still lacking in the literature. We present the results of a 2 year experimental study at a shallow aquifer in the United Arab Emirates that was designed to specifically explore the transient nature of free convection. ER tomography data documented the presence of convective fingers following a significant rainfall event. We demonstrate that the complex fingering pattern had completely disappeared a year after the rainfall event. The observation is supported by an analysis of the aquifer halite budget and hydrodynamic modeling of the transient character of the fingering instabilities. Modeling results show that the transient dynamics of the gravitational instabilities (their initial development, infiltration into the underlying lower-density groundwater, and subsequent decay) are in agreement with the timing observed in the time-lapse ER measurements. All experimental observations and modeling results are consistent with the hypothesis that a dense brine that infiltrated into the aquifer from a surficial source was the cause of free convection at this site, and that the finite nature of the dense brine source and dispersive mixing led to the decay of instabilities with time. This study highlights the importance of the transience of free convection phenomena and suggests that these processes are more rapid than was previously understood.

Road infrastructure vulnerability to groundwater table variation due to sea level rise

This study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of coastal road infrastructures due to climate change induced sea level rise and extreme weather conditions through the estimation of road subgrade strength reduction as a result of changes in soil moisture content. The study area located in the Gold Coast, Australia highlighted that the risk is significant. In wet seasons or areas with wet condition, the groundwater table is already high, so even a small change in the groundwater table can raise the risk of inundation; particularly, in areas with existing shallow groundwater. The predicted risk of a high groundwater table on road infrastructure is a long-term hazard. Therefore, there is time to undertake some management plans to decrease the possible risks, for instance, some deep root plants could be planted along the roads with a high level of risk, to decrease the groundwater table elevation.

Sharing social space with strangers: Setting, signalling and policing informal rules of driving etiquette

Recent research suggests that aggressive driving may be influenced by driver perceptions of their interactions with other drivers in terms of ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ behaviour. Drivers appear to take a moral standpoint on ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ driving behaviour. However, ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ in the context of road use is not defined solely by legislation, but includes informal rules that are sometimes termed ‘driving etiquette’. Driving etiquette has implications for road safety and public safety since breaches of both formal and informal rules may result in moral judgement of others and subsequent behaviours designed to punish the ‘offender’ or ‘teach them a lesson’. This paper outlines qualitative research that was undertaken with drivers to explore their understanding of driving etiquette and how they reacted to other drivers’ observance or violation of their understanding. The aim was to develop an explanatory framework within which the relationships between driving etiquette and aggressive driving could be understood, specifically moral judgement of other drivers and punishment of their transgression of driving etiquette. Thematic analysis of focus groups (n=10) generated three main themes: (1) courtesy and reciprocity, and the notion of two-way responsibility, with examples of how expectations of courteous behaviour vary according to the traffic interaction; (2) acknowledgement and shared social experience: ‘giving the wave’; and (3) responses to breaches of the expectations/informal rules. The themes are discussed in terms of their roles in an explanatory framework of the informal rules of etiquette and how interactions between drivers can reinforce or weaken a driver’s understanding of driver etiquette and potentially lead to driving aggression.

The Homeless Etiquette : Social Interaction and Behavior Among the Homeless in Taito Ward, Tokyo

The thesis focuses on the social interaction and behavior of the homeless living in Tokyo's Taito Ward. The study is based on the author's own ethnographic field research carried out in the autumn 2003. The chosen methodologies were based on the methodology called "participant observation", and they were used depending on the context. The ethnographic field research was carried out from the mid-August to the beginning of the October in 2003. The most important targets of the research were three separate loosely knit groups placed in certain parts of Taito Ward. One of these groups was based in proximity to the Ueno train station, one group gathered every morning around a homeless support organization called San'yûkai, and one was based in Tamahime Park located in the old San'ya area of Tokyo. The analysis is based on the aspects of Takie Sugiyama Lebra's theory of "social relativism". Lebra's theory consists of the following, arguably universal aspects: belongingness, empathy, dependence, place in the society, and reciprocity. In addition, all the interaction and behavior is tied to the context and the situation. According to Lebra, ritual and intimate situations produce similar action, which is socially relative. Of these, the norms of the ritual behavior are more regulated, while the intimate bahavior is less spontaneous. On the contrary, an anomic situation produces anomic behavior, which is not socially relative. Lebra's theory is critically reviewed by the author of the thesis, and the author has attempted to modify the theory to make it more adaptable to the present-day society and to the analysis. Erving Goffman's views of the social interaction and Anthony Giddens' theories about the social structures have been used as complementary thoretical basis. The aim of the thesis is to clarify, how and why the interaction and the behavior of some homeless individuals in some situations follow the aspects of Lebra's "social relativism", and on the other hand, why in some situations they do not. In the latter cases the answers can be sought from regional and individual differences, or from the inaptness of the theory to analyze the presented situation. Here, a significant factor is the major finding of the field study: the so called "homeless etiquette", which is an abstract set of norms and values that influences the social interaction and behavior of the homeless, and with which many homeless individuals presented in the study complied. The fundamental goal of the thesis is to reach profound understanding about the daily life of the homeless, whose lives were studied. The author argues that this kind of profound understanding is necessary in looking for sustainable solutions in the areas of social and housing policy to improve the position of the homeless and the qualitative functioning of the society.

Molecular characterisation, pathogenesis and fungicide sensitivity of Pythium spp. from table beet (Beta vulgaris var. vulgaris) grown in the Lockyer Valley, Queensland

Table beet production in the Lockyer Valley of south-eastern Queensland is known to be adversely affected by soilborne root disease from infection by Pythium spp. However, little is known regarding the species or genotypes that are the causal agents of both pre- and post-emergence damping off. Based on RFLP analysis with HhaI, HinfI and MboI of the PCR amplified ITS region DNA from soil and diseased plant samples, the majority of 130 Pythium isolates could be grouped into three genotypes, designated LVP A, LVP B and LVP C. These groups comprised 43, 41 and 7% of all isolates, respectively. Deoxyribonucleic acid sequence analysis of the ITS region indicated that LVP A was a strain of Pythium aphanidermatum, with greater than 99% similarity to the corresponding P. aphanidermatum sequences from the publicly accessible databases. The DNA sequences from LVP B and LVP C were most closely related to P. ultimum and P. dissotocum, respectively. Lower frequencies of other distinct isolates with unique RFLP patterns were also obtained with high levels of similarity (>97%) to P. heterothallicum, P. periplocum and genotypes of P. ultimum other than LVP B. Inoculation trials of 1- and 4-week-old beet seedlings indicated that compared with isolates of the LVP B genotype, a higher frequency of LVP A isolates caused disease. Isolates with the LVP A, LVP B and LVP C genotypes were highly sensitive to the fungicide Ridomil MZ, which suppressed radial growth on V8 agar between approximately four and thirty fold at 5 μg/mL metalaxyl and 40 μg/mL mancozeb, a concentration far lower than the recommended field application rate.