Essays on Bank Risk

This PhD Thesis is composed of three chapters, each discussing a specific type of risk that banks face. The first chapter talks about Systemic Risk and how banks get exposed to it through the Interbank Funding Market. Exposures in the said market have Systemic Risk implications because the market creates linkages, where the failure of one party can affect the others in the market. By showing that CDS Spreads, as bank risk indicators, are positively related to their Net Interbank Funding Market Exposures, this chapter establishes the above Systemic Risk Implications of Interbank Funding. Meanwhile, the second chapter discusses how banks may handle Illiquidity Risk, defined as the possibility of having sudden funding needs. Illiquidity Risk is embodied in this chapter through Loan Commitments as they oblige banks to lend to its clients, up to a certain amount of funds at any time. This chapter points out that using Securitization as funding facility, could allow the banks to manage this Illiquidity Risk. To make this case, this chapter demonstrates empirically that banks having an increase in Loan Commitments, may experience an increase in risk profile but such can be offset by an accompanying increase in Securitization Activity. Lastly, the third chapter focuses on how banks manage Credit Risk also through Securitization. Securitization has a Credit Risk management property by allowing the offloading of risk. This chapter investigates how banks use such property by looking at the effect of securitization on the banks’ loan portfolios and overall risk and returns. The findings are that securitization is positively related to loan portfolio size and the portfolio share of risky loans, which translates to higher risk and returns. Thus, this chapter points out that Credit Risk management through Securitization may be have been done towards higher risk taking for high returns.

A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

Understanding supply chain disruption risk with the aid of social networks and information flows analysis

Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) has become a popular area of research and study in recent years. This can be highlighted by the number of peer reviewed articles that have appeared in academic literature. This coupled with the realisation by companies that SCRM strategies are required to mitigate the risks that they face, makes for challenging research questions in the field of risk management. The challenge that companies face today is not only to identify the types of risks that they face, but also to assess the indicators of risk that face them. This will allow them to mitigate that risk before any disruption to the supply chain occurs. The use of social network theory can aid in the identification of disruption risk. This thesis proposes the combination of social networks, behavioural risk indicators and information management, to uniquely identify disruption risk. The propositions that were developed from the literature review and exploratory case study in the aerospace OEM, in this thesis are:- By improving information flows, through the use of social networks, we can identify supply chain disruption risk. - The management of information to identify supply chain disruption risk can be explored using push and pull concepts. The propositions were further explored through four focus group sessions, two within the OEM and two within an academic setting. The literature review conducted by the researcher did not find any studies that have evaluated supply chain disruption risk management in terms of social network analysis or information management studies. The evaluation of SCRM using these methods is thought to be a unique way of understanding the issues in SCRM that practitioners face today in the aerospace industry.

Retinal vascular function and cardiovascular risk factors

The current platform of conventional cardiovascular risk assessments tends to forsake the importance of endothelial function - a key biological mechanism by which cardiovascular risk factors exert their propensity for adverse vascular events. Moreover, the presence and severity of endothelial dysfunction in ‘low-risk’ individuals suggests considerable variability in pre-clinical risk that could potentially be detected well before the onset of disease. The aim of the present thesis was to investigate the presence and impact of retinal vascular dysfunction, as a barometer of endothelial function, in otherwise healthy individuals with one or more cardiovascular risk factors, but low to moderate cardiovascular risk. Systemic circulatory influences on retinal vascular function were also evaluated. The principle sections and findings of this work are: 1. Ageing effect on retinal vascular function • In low-risk individuals, there are age differences in retinal vascular function throughout the entire functional response curve for arteries and veins. Gender differences mainly affect the dilatory phase and are only present in young individuals. 2. Retinal vascular function in healthy individuals with a family history of cardiovascular disease • In low-risk individuals with a family history of cardiovascular disease, impairments in microvascular function at the retinal level correlate with established plasma markers for cardiovascular risk. 3. Ethnic differences in retinal vascular function • When compared to age-matched White Europeans, in low-risk middle-aged South Asians, there are impairments in retinal vascular function that correlate with established cardiovascular risk indicators. 4. Systemic circulatory influences on retinalµvascular function • Systemic antioxidant capacity (redox index) and plasma markers for cardiovascular risk (lipids) influence retinal microvascular function at both arterial and venous levels. 5. Retinal vascular function in individuals with obstructive sleep apnoea: a preliminarystudy • Patients with moderate to severe sleep apnoea exhibit attenuated retinal vascular function.

Kockázattal kiegészített Taylor-szabályok becslése Magyarországra = Estimation of risk-augmented Taylor rules for Hungary

Cikkünkben a magyar monetáris politikát vizsgáljuk olyan szempontból, hogy kamatdöntései meghozatalakor figyelembe vette-e az országkockázatot, és ha igen, hogyan. A kérdés megválaszolásához a monetáris politika elemzésének leggyakoribb eszközét használjuk: az ország monetáris politikáját leíró Taylor-szabályokat becslünk. A becslést több kockázati mérőszámmal is elvégeztük több, különféle Taylor-szabályt használva. Az érzékenységvizsgálatban az inflációhoz és a kibocsátási réshez is alkalmaztunk más, az alapspecifikációban szereplőtől eltérő mérőszámokat. Eredményeink szerint a Magyar Nemzeti Bank kamatdöntései jól leírhatók egy rugalmas, inflációs célkövető rezsimmel: a Taylor-szabályban szignifikáns szerepe van az inflációs céltól való eltérésének és - a szabályok egy része esetén - a kibocsátási résnek. Emellett a döntéshozók figyelembe vették az országkockázatot is, annak növekedésére a kamat emelésével válaszoltak. Az országkockázat Taylor-szabályba történő beillesztése a megfelelő kockázati mérőszám kiválasztása esetén jelentős mértékben képes javítani a Taylor-szabály illeszkedését. _____ The paper investigates the degree to which Hungarian monetary policy has considered country risk in its decisions and if so, how. The answer was sought through the commonest method of analysing a countrys monetary policy: Taylor rules for describing it. The estimation of the rule was prepared using several risk indicators and applying various types of Taylor rules. As a sensitivity analysis, other indicators of inflation and output gap were employed than in the base rule. This showed that the interest-rate decisions of the National Bank of Hungary can be well described by a flexible inflation targeting regime: in the Taylor rules, deviation of inflation from its target has a significant role and the output gap is also significant in one part of the rules. The decision-makers also considered country risk and responded to an increase in it by raising interest rates. Insertion of country risk into the Taylor rule could improve the models fit to an important degree when choosing an appropriate risk measure.

Self-perception and malocclusion and their relation to oral appearance and function

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between malocclusion and self-perception of oral appearance/function, in 12/15-year-old Brazilian adolescents. The cluster sample consisted of 717 teenagers attending 24 urban public (n=611) and 5 rural public (n=107) schools in Maringá/PR. Malocclusion was measured using the Dental Aesthetic Index (DAI), in accordance with WHO recommendations. A parental questionnaire was applied to collect information on esthetic perception level and oral variables related to oral health. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed. Multiple logistic regression confirmed that for 12-year-old, missing teeth (OR=2.865) and presence of openbite (open occlusal relationship) (OR=2.865) were risk indicators for speech capability. With regard to 15-year-old, presence of mandibular overjet (horizontal overlap) (OR=4.016) was a risk indicator for speech capability and molar relationship (OR=1.661) was a risk indicator for chewing capability. The impact of malocclusion on adolescents' life was confirmed in this study. Speech and chewing capability were associated with orthodontic deviations, which should be taken into consideration in oral health planning, to identify risk groups and improve community health services.

Tooth loss in Brazilian middle-aged adults: multilevel effects

Objective. To examine the link between tooth loss and multilevel factors in a national sample of middle-aged adults in Brazil. Material and methods. Analyses were based on the 2003 cross-sectional national epidemiological survey of the oral health of the Brazilian population, which covered 13 431 individuals (age 35-44 years). Multistage cluster sampling was used. The dependent variable was tooth loss and the independent variables were classified according to the individual or contextual level. A multilevel negative binomial regression model was adopted. Results. The average tooth loss was 14 (standard deviation 9.5) teeth. Half of the individuals had lost 12 teeth. The contextual variables showed independent effects on tooth loss. It was found that having 9 years or more of schooling was associated with protection against tooth loss (means ratio range 0.68-0.76). Not having visited the dentist and not having visited in the last >= 3 years accounted for increases of 33.5% and 21.3%, respectively, in the risk of tooth loss (P < 0.05). The increase in tooth extraction ratio showed a strong contextual effect on increased risk of tooth loss, besides changing the effect of protective variables. Conclusions. Tooth loss in middle-aged adults has important associations with social determinants of health. This study points to the importance of the social context as the main cause of oral health injuries suffered by most middle-aged Brazilian adults.

Periodontal attachment loss in an untreated isolated population of Brazil

Background: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence, extent, and severity of clinical attachment loss (CAL) and to investigate the association of demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral risk indicators with CAL in an untreated isolated population in Brazil. Methods: All subjects aged >= 12 years were identified by a census. Participants were submitted to a full-mouth clinical examination of six sites per tooth and were interviewed using a structured, written questionnaire. Results: Among the 214 subjects who were interviewed and examined clinically, CAL >= 5 mm in at least one site was observed in 8% of the 12- to 19-year-olds and in all dentate subjects >= 50 years of age; the age-dependent prevalence of CAL >= 7 mm in at least one site ranged from 5% among 12- to 19-year-olds to 83% among subjects >= 50 years old. Multivariate analysis identified plaque (odds ratio [OR] = 2.8), supragingival calculus (OR = 2.9 to 10.6), age >= 30 years (OR = 11.4), and smoking (OR = 2.4) as risk indicators for CAL >= 5 mm and smoking (OR = 8.2) as a risk indicator for CAL >= 7 mm. Conclusions: CAL is highly prevalent in this isolated population. The high occurrence of CAL in young age groups and the confirmation of traditional risk indicators for CAL in this study suggest that other factors, such as host susceptibility, may be needed to explain the high levels of CAL found. Age and behavioral factors were risk indicators associated significantly with the CAL found in this population and may be useful indicators of high-risk subjects for periodontal diseases.

Periodontal disease in adults with untreated congenital growth hormone deficiency: a case-control study

P>Aim The aim of this study was to investigate the possible associations between isolated growth hormone deficiency (IGHD) and periodontal attachment loss (PAL) in adults affected by congenital IGHD. Materials and methods Forty-five previously identified IGHD subjects were eligible for this study. The final study sample comprised 32 cases (gender:20M/12F; age:44.8 +/- 17.5) matched for age, gender, diabetes, smoking status and income to 32 controls (non-IGHD subjects). Participants were submitted to a full-mouth clinical examination of six sites per tooth and were interviewed using a structured, written questionnaire. Periodontitis was defined as proximal PAL >= 5 mm affecting >= 30% of teeth. Results No significant differences were observed in the percentage of sites with visible plaque between IGHD and non-IGHD subjects (59.4% versus 46.9%, p=0.32). IGHD subjects had significant less supragingival calculus (31.3% versus 59.4%, p=0.02) and more bleeding on probing (71.9% versus 18.8%, p < 0.01) than controls. PAL >= 5 mm was significantly more prevalent (100% versus 71.9%, p < 0.01) and affected more teeth (30.5% versus 6.7%, p < 0.01) in cases than in controls. After adjusting for supragingival calculus, IGHD cases had a higher likelihood of having periodontitis than controls (OR=17.4-17.8, 95% CI=2.3-134.9, p=0.004-0.005). Conclusion Congenital IGHD subjects have a greater chance of having PAL.

A longitudinal study of interleukin-1 gene polymorphisms and periodontal disease in a general adult population

Background: Cross-sectional studies have demonstrated that a specific polymorphism (allele 2 of both IL-1A +4845 and IL-1B +3954) in the IL-1 gene cluster has been associated with an increased susceptibility to severe periodontal disease and to an increased bleeding tendency during periodontal maintenance. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between IL-1 genotype and periodontitis in a prospective longitudinal study in an adult population of essentially European heritage. Methods: From an ongoing study of the Oral Care Research Programme of The University of Queensland, 295 subjects consented to genotyping for IL-1 allele 2 polymorphisms. Probing depths and relative attachment levels were recorded at baseline, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months using the Florida probe. Periodontitis progression at a given site was defined as attachment loss greater than or equal to2 mm at any observation period during the 5 years of the study and the extent of disease progression determined by the number of sites showing attachment loss. Porphyromonas gingivalis, Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans and Prevotella intermedia were detected using ELISA. Results: 38.9% of the subjects were positive for the composite IL-1 genotype. A relationship between the IL-1 positive genotype and increased mean probing pocket depth in non-smokers greater than 50 years of age was found. Further, IL-1 genotype positive smokers and genotype positive subjects with P. gingivalis in their plaque had an increase in the number of probing depths greater than or equal to3.5 mm, There was a consistent trend for IL-1 genotype positive subjects to experience attachment loss when compared with IL-1 genotype negative subjects. Conclusion: The results of this study have shown an interaction of the IL-1 positive genotype with age, smoking and P. gingivalis which suggests that IL-1 genotype is a contributory but non-essential risk factor for periodontal disease progression in this population.

Which aspects of socio-economic status are related to health in mid-aged and older women?

A population-based study was conducted to validate gender- and age-specific indexes of socio-economic status (SES) and to investigate the associations between these indexes and a range of health outcomes in 2 age cohorts of women. Data from 11,637 women aged 45 to 50 and 9,5 10 women aged 70 to 75 were analyzed. Confirmatory factor analysis produced four domains of SES among the mid-aged cohort (employment, family unit, education, and migration) and four domains among the older cohort (family unit, income, education, and migration). Overall, the results supported the factor structures derived from another population-based study (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1995), reinforcing the argument that SES domains differ across age groups. In general, the findings also supported the hypotheses that women with low SES would have poorer health outcomes than higher SES women, and that the magnitude of these effects would differ according to the specific SES domain and by age group, with fewer and smaller differences observed among older women. The main exception was that in the older cohort, the education domain was significantly associated with specific health conditions. Results suggest that relations between SES and health are highly complex and vary by age, SES domain, and the health outcome under study.

Measuring male infertility: epidemiological aspects

Evidence suggests that human semen quality may have been deteriorating in recent years. Most of the evidence is retrospective, based on analysis of data sets collected for other purposes. Measures of male infertility are needed if we want to monitor the biological capacity for males to reproduce over time or between different populations. We also need these measures in analytical epidemiology if we want to identify risk indicators, risk factors, or even causes of an impaired male fecundity-that is, the male component in the biological ability to reproduce. The most direct evaluation of fecundity is to measure the time it takes to conceive. Since the time of conception may be missed in the case of an early abortion, time to get pregnant is often measured as the time it takes to obtain a conception that survives until a clinically recognized pregnancy or even a pregnancy that ends with a live born child occurs. A prolonged time required to produce pregnancy may therefore be due to a failure to conceive or a failure to maintain a pregnancy until clinical recognition. Studies that focus on quantitative changes in fecundity (that does not cause sterility) should in principle be possible in a pregnancy sample. The most important limitation in fertility studies is that the design requires equal persistency in trying to become pregnant and rather similar fertility desires and family planning methods in the groups to be compared. This design is probably achievable in exposure studies that make comparisons with reasonable comparable groups concerning social conditions and use of contraceptive methods.

Resiliência familiar e risco psicossocial: estudo das percepções das famílias e dos profissionais que as acompanham

Dissertação de mestrado em Estudos da Criança (área de especialização em Intervenção Psicossocial com Crianças, Jovens e Famílias)

Psychoses a l'adolescence, les neurosciences ameliorent-elles la prediction? [Adolescent psychosis, can neuroscience improve prediction?]

Developments in the field of neuroscience have created a high level of interest in the subject of adolescent psychosis, particularly in relation to prediction and prevention. As the medical practice of adolescent psychosis and its treatment is characterised by a heterogeneity which is both symptomatic and evolutive, the somewhat poor prognosis of chronic development justifies the research performed: apparent indicators of schizophrenic disorders on the one hand and specific endophenotypes on the other are becoming increasingly important. The significant progresses made on the human genome show that the genetic predetermination in current psychiatric pathologies is complex and subject to moderating effects and there is therefore significant potential for nature-nurture interactions (between the environment and the genes). The road to be followed in researching the phenotypic expression of a psychosis gene is long and winding and is susceptible to many external influences at various levels with different effects. Neurobiological, neurophysiological, neuropsychological and neuroanatomical studies help to identify endophenotypes, which allow researchers to create identifying "markers" along this winding road. The endophenotypes could make it possible to redefine the nosological categories and enhance understanding of the physiopathology of schizophrenia. In a predictive approach, large-scale retrospective and prospective studies make it possible to identify risk factors, which are compatible with the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of schizophrenia. However, the predictive value of such markers or risk indicators is not yet sufficiently developed to offer a reliable early-detection method or possible schizophrenia prevention measures. Nonetheless, new developments show promise against the background of a possible future nosographic revolution, based on a paradigm shift. It is perhaps on the basis of homogeneous endophenotypes in particular that we will be able to understand what protects against, or indeed can trigger, psychosis irrespective of the clinical expression or attempts to isolate the common genetic and biological bases according to homogeneous clinical characteristics, which have to date, proved unsuccessful

Domiciliation Trend of Panstrongylus rufotuberculatus in Colombia

The present paper presents evidence of the domiciliation of Panstrongylus rufotuberculatus in La Gardenia, Colombia through the collection of 2 unhatched eggs, 81 nymphs and 10 adults (4 males and 6 females), from 2 rural houses. The transmission risk indicators of Trypanosoma cruzi by P. rufotuberculatus in La Gardenia, were: domiciliary infestation 7.5%, density 2.35, colonization 66.6%, overcrowding 31.33, natural infection 4.6%, and relative infection 2.5%. These results and findings in Peru and Argentina, show that P. rufotuberculatus has a potential success in domiciliation and could some day become an alternate vector of American trypanosomiasis.