Testing for panel cointegration with multiple structural breaks

This paper proposes a Lagrange multiplier (LM) test for the null hypothesis of cointegration that allows for the possibility of multiple structural breaks in both the level and trend of a cointegrated panel regression. The test is general enough to allow for endogenous regressors, serial correlation and an unknown number of breaks that may be located at different dates for different individuals. We derive the limiting distribution of the test and conduct a small Monte Carlo study to investigate its finite sample properties. In our empirical application to the solvency of the current account, we find evidence of cointegration between saving and investment once a level break is accommodated. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2006.

Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Normality Tests in Linear Regressions

In the literature on tests of normality, much concern has been expressed over the problems associated with residual-based procedures. Indeed, the specialized tables of critical points which are needed to perform the tests have been derived for the location-scale model; hence reliance on available significance points in the context of regression models may cause size distortions. We propose a general solution to the problem of controlling the size normality tests for the disturbances of standard linear regression, which is based on using the technique of Monte Carlo tests.

Multi-dimensional Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Spectrum Sensing Based on Stochastic Distances

In this paper, we study two multi-dimensional Goodness-of-Fit tests for spectrum sensing in cognitive radios. The multi-dimensional scenario refers to multiple CR nodes, each with multiple antennas, that record multiple observations from multiple primary users for spectrum sensing. These tests, viz., the Interpoint Distance (ID) based test and the h, f distance based tests are constructed based on the properties of stochastic distances. The ID test is studied in detail for a single CR node case, and a possible extension to handle multiple nodes is discussed. On the other hand, the h, f test is applicable in a multi-node setup. A robustness feature of the KL distance based test is discussed, which has connections with Middleton's class A model. Through Monte-Carlo simulations, the proposed tests are shown to outperform the existing techniques such as the eigenvalue ratio based test, John's test, and the sphericity test, in several scenarios.

Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency in CAPM with Possibly Non-Gaussian Errors : An Exact Simulation-Based Approach

In this paper we propose exact likelihood-based mean-variance efficiency tests of the market portfolio in the context of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), allowing for a wide class of error distributions which include normality as a special case. These tests are developed in the frame-work of multivariate linear regressions (MLR). It is well known however that despite their simple statistical structure, standard asymptotically justified MLR-based tests are unreliable. In financial econometrics, exact tests have been proposed for a few specific hypotheses [Jobson and Korkie (Journal of Financial Economics, 1982), MacKinlay (Journal of Financial Economics, 1987), Gib-bons, Ross and Shanken (Econometrica, 1989), Zhou (Journal of Finance 1993)], most of which depend on normality. For the gaussian model, our tests correspond to Gibbons, Ross and Shanken’s mean-variance efficiency tests. In non-gaussian contexts, we reconsider mean-variance efficiency tests allowing for multivariate Student-t and gaussian mixture errors. Our framework allows to cast more evidence on whether the normality assumption is too restrictive when testing the CAPM. We also propose exact multivariate diagnostic checks (including tests for multivariate GARCH and mul-tivariate generalization of the well known variance ratio tests) and goodness of fit tests as well as a set estimate for the intervening nuisance parameters. Our results [over five-year subperiods] show the following: (i) multivariate normality is rejected in most subperiods, (ii) residual checks reveal no significant departures from the multivariate i.i.d. assumption, and (iii) mean-variance efficiency tests of the market portfolio is not rejected as frequently once it is allowed for the possibility of non-normal errors.

Panel cointegration tests with deterministic trends and structural breaks

This paper proposes Lagrange multiplier (LM) based tests for the null hypothesis of no cointegration in panel data. The tests are general enough to allow for heteroskedastic and serially correlated errors, individual specific time trends, and a single structural break
in both the intercept and slope of each regression, which may be located different dates for different individuals. The limiting distributions of the test statistics are derived, and are found to be standard normal and free of nuisance parameters under the null. In
particular, the distributions are found to be invariant not only withrespect to trend and structural break, but also with respect to the presence of stochastic regressors. A small Monte Carlo study is also conducted to investigate the small-sample properties of the tests. The results reveal that the tests have small size distortions and good power even in very small samples.

Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher hypothesis

Recent empirical studies suggest that the Fisher hypothesis, stating that inflation and nominal interest rates should cointegrate with a unit parameter on inflation, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be explained in part by the low power inherent in univariate cointegration tests and that the use of panel data should generate more powerful tests. In doing so, we propose two new panel cointegration tests, which are shown by simulation to be more powerful than other existing tests. Applying these tests to a panel of monthly data covering the period 1980:1 to 1999:12 on 14 OECD countries, we find evidence supportive of the Fisher hypothesis.

The impact of blur, illumination and distracters on tests related to driving performance

This thesis investigated a range of factors underlying the impact of uncorrected refractive errors on laboratory-based tests related to driving. Results showed that refractive blur had a pronounced effect on recognition of briefly presented targets, particularly under low light conditions. Blur, in combination with audio distracters, also slowed a participant's reactions to road hazards in video presentations. This suggests that recognition of suddenly appearing road hazards might be slowed in the presence of refractive blur, particularly under conditions of distraction. These findings highlight the importance of correcting even small refractive errors for driving, particularly at night.

Gene-based pleiotropy across migraine with aura and migraine without aura patient groups

Introduction: It is unclear whether patients diagnosed according to International Classification of Headache Disorders criteria for migraine with aura (MA) and migraine without aura (MO) experience distinct disorders or whether their migraine subtypes are genetically related. Aim: Using a novel gene-based (statistical) approach, we aimed to identify individual genes and pathways associated both with MA and MO. Methods: Gene-based tests were performed using genome-wide association summary statistic results from the most recent International Headache Genetics Consortium study comparing 4505 MA cases with 34,813 controls and 4038 MO cases with 40,294 controls. After accounting for non-independence of gene-based test results, we examined the significance of the proportion of shared genes associated with MA and MO. Results: We found a significant overlap in genes associated with MA and MO. Of the total 1514 genes with a nominally significant gene-based p value (pgene-based ≤ 0.05) in the MA subgroup, 107 also produced pgene-based ≤ 0.05 in the MO subgroup. The proportion of overlapping genes is almost double the empirically derived null expectation, producing significant evidence of gene-based overlap (pleiotropy) (pbinomial-test = 1.5 × 10–4). Combining results across MA and MO, six genes produced genome-wide significant gene-based p values. Four of these genes (TRPM8, UFL1, FHL5 and LRP1) were located in close proximity to previously reported genome-wide significant SNPs for migraine, while two genes, TARBP2 and NPFF separated by just 259 bp on chromosome 12q13.13, represent a novel risk locus. The genes overlapping in both migraine types were enriched for functions related to inflammation, the cardiovascular system and connective tissue. Conclusions: Our results provide novel insight into the likely genes and biological mechanisms that underlie both MA and MO, and when combined with previous data, highlight the neuropeptide FF-amide peptide encoding gene (NPFF) as a novel candidate risk gene for both types of migraine.

R-parameter: A local truncation error based adaptive framework for finite volume compressible flow solvers

A residual-based strategy to estimate the local truncation error in a finite volume framework for steady compressible flows is proposed. This estimator, referred to as the -parameter, is derived from the imbalance arising from the use of an exact operator on the numerical solution for conservation laws. The behaviour of the residual estimator for linear and non-linear hyperbolic problems is systematically analysed. The relationship of the residual to the global error is also studied. The -parameter is used to derive a target length scale and consequently devise a suitable criterion for refinement/derefinement. This strategy, devoid of any user-defined parameters, is validated using two standard test cases involving smooth flows. A hybrid adaptive strategy based on both the error indicators and the -parameter, for flows involving shocks is also developed. Numerical studies on several compressible flow cases show that the adaptive algorithm performs excellently well in both two and three dimensions.

Lack of association between the-2518G/A polymorphism of the MCP-1 gene and ischaemic heart disease: a family-based investigation

Using two recently described family-based tests of association, the possible role of the functional -2518G/A polymorphism in the promoter region of the monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) gene in the susceptibility to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) was investigated in a well-defined Irish population. One thousand and twelve individuals from 386 families with at least one member prematurely affected with M were, genotyped for the MCP-1 -2518G/A polymorphism. Using the combined transmission disequilibriurn test and the pedigree disequilibriurn test, no association between the MCP-1 -2518G/A polymorphism and M was found. g Our data demonstrate that, in an Irish population, the MCP-1 -2518G/A polymorphism is not strongly associated with M.

Lack of MEF2A Δ7aa mutation in Irish families with early onset ischaemic heart disease, a family based study

Background: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is a complex disease due to the combination of environmental and genetic factors. Mutations in the MEF2A gene have recently been reported in patients with IHD. In particular, a 21 base pair deletion (Δ7aa) in the MEF2A gene was identified in a family with an autosomal dominant pattern of inheritance of IHD. We investigated this region of the MEF2A gene using an Irish family-based study, where affected individuals had early-onset IHD. Methods: A total of 1494 individuals from 580 families were included (800 discordant sib-pairs and 64 parent-child trios). The Δ7aa region of the MEF2A gene was investigated based on amplicon size. Results: The Δ7aa mutation was not detected in any individual. Variation in the number of CAG (glutamate) and CCG (proline) residues was detected in a nearby region. However, this was not found to be associated with IHD. Conclusion: The Δ7aa mutation was not detected in any individual within the study population and is unlikely to play a significant role in the development of IHD in Ireland. Using family-based tests of association the number of tri-nucleotide repeats in a nearby region of the MEF2A gene was not associated with IHD in our study group. © 2006 Horan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

The matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3) 5A/6A promoter polymorphism is not associated with ischaemic heart disease: Analysis employing a family based approach

Matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3) has been proposed as an important mediator of the atherosclerotic process. The possible role of the functional -1612(.)5A/6A polymorphism of the MMP-3 gene in the susceptibility to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) was investigated in a well-defined Irish population using two recently described family based tests of association. One thousand and twelve individuals from 386 families with at least one member prematurely affected with IHD were genotyped. Using the combined transmission disequilibrium test (TDT)/sib-TDT and the pedigree disequilibrium test (PDT), no association between the MMP-3 -1612 5A/6A polymorphism and IHD was found. Our data demonstrate that, in an Irish population, the MMP-3 -1612 5A/6A polymorphism is not associated with IHD.

Improved Detection of Mycobacterium bovis Infection in Bovine Lymph Node Tissue Using Immunomagnetic Separation (IMS)-Based Methods

Immunomagnetic separation (IMS) can selectively isolate and concentrate Mycobacterium bovis cells from lymph node tissue to facilitate subsequent detection by PCR (IMS-PCR) or culture (IMS-MGIT). This study describes application of these novel IMS-based methods to test for M. bovis in a survey of 280 bovine lymph nodes (206 visibly lesioned (VL), 74 non-visibly lesioned (NVL)) collected at slaughter as part of the Northern Ireland bovine TB eradication programme. Their performance was evaluated relative to culture. Overall, 174 (62.1%) lymph node samples tested positive by culture, 162 (57.8%) by IMS-PCR (targeting IS6110), and 196 (70.0%) by IMS-MGIT culture. Twelve (6.9%) of the 174 culture positive lymph node samples were not detected by either of the IMS-based methods. However, an additional 78 M. bovis positive lymph node samples (26 (12.6%) VL and 54 (73.0%) NVL) were detected by the IMS-based methods and not by culture. When low numbers of viable M. bovis are present in lymph nodes (e.g. in NVLs of skin test reactor cattle) decontamination prior to culture may adversely affect viability, leading to false negative culture results. In contrast, IMS specifically captures whole M. bovis cells (live, dead or potentially dormant) which are not subject to any deleterious treatment before detection by PCR or MGIT culture. During this study only 2.7% of NVL lymph nodes tested culture positive, whereas 73% of the same samples tested M. bovis positive by the IMS-based tests. Results clearly demonstrate that not only are the IMS-based methods more rapid but they have greater detection sensitivity than the culture approach currently used for the detection of M. bovis infection in cattle.. Adoption of the IMS-based methods for lymph node testing would have the potential to improve M. bovis detection in clinical samples.

Routine use of point-of-care tests: usefulness and application in clinical microbiology.

Point-of-care (POC) tests offer potentially substantial benefits for the management of infectious diseases, mainly by shortening the time to result and by making the test available at the bedside or at remote care centres. Commercial POC tests are already widely available for the diagnosis of bacterial and viral infections and for parasitic diseases, including malaria. Infectious diseases specialists and clinical microbiologists should be aware of the indications and limitations of each rapid test, so that they can use them appropriately and correctly interpret their results. The clinical applications and performance of the most relevant and commonly used POC tests are reviewed. Some of these tests exhibit insufficient sensitivity, and should therefore be coupled to confirmatory tests when the results are negative (e.g. Streptococcus pyogenes rapid antigen detection test), whereas the results of others need to be confirmed when positive (e.g. malaria). New molecular-based tests exhibit better sensitivity and specificity than former immunochromatographic assays (e.g. Streptococcus agalactiae detection). In the coming years, further evolution of POC tests may lead to new diagnostic approaches, such as panel testing, targeting not just a single pathogen, but all possible agents suspected in a specific clinical setting. To reach this goal, the development of serology-based and/or molecular-based microarrays/multiplexed tests will be needed. The availability of modern technology and new microfluidic devices will provide clinical microbiologists with the opportunity to be back at the bedside, proposing a large variety of POC tests that will allow quicker diagnosis and improved patient care.

A classroom-based investigation of reciprocal teaching at the grade seven level

This study assessed the effectiveness of a reciprocal teaching program as a method of teaching reading comprehension, using narrative text material in a t.ypical grade seven classroom. In order to determine the effectiveness of the reciprocal teaching program, this method was compared to two other reading instruction approaches that, unlike rcciprocal teaching, did not include social interaction components. Two intact grade scven classes, and a grade seven teacher, participated in this study. Students were appropriately assigned to three treatment groups by reading achievement level as determined from a norm-referenced test. Training proceeded for a five week intervention period during regularly scheduled English periods. Throughout the program curriculum-based tests were administered. These tests were designed to assess comprehension in two distinct ways; namely, character analysis components as they relate to narrative text, and strategy use components as they contribute to student understanding of narrative and expository text. Pre, post, and maintenance tests were administered to measure overall training effects. Moreover, during intervention, training probes were administered in the last period of each week to evaluate treatment group performance. AU curriculum-based tests were coded and comparisons of pre, post, maintenance tests and training probes were presented in graph form. Results showed that the reciprocal group achieved some improvement in reading comprehension scores in the strategy use component of the tests. No improvements were observed for the character analysis components of the curriculum-based tests and the norm-referenced tests. At pre and post intervention, interviews requiring students to respond to questions that addressed metacomprehension awareness of study strategies were administered. The intelviews were coded and comparisons were made between the two intelVicws. No significant improvements were observed regarding student awareness of ten identified study strategies . This study indicated that reciprocal teaching is a viable approach that can be utilized to help students acquire more effective comprehension strategies. However, the maximum utility of the technique when administered to a population of grade seven students performing at average to above average levels of reading achievement has yet to be determined. In order to explore this issue, the refinement of training materials and curriculum-based measurements need to be explored. As well, this study revealed that reciprocal teaching placed heavier demands on the classroom teacher when compared to other reading instruction methods. This may suggest that innovative and intensive teacher training techniques are required before it is feasible to use this method in the classroom.