The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the skill of these models not only with each other but also with empirical models can reveal the space and time scales on which simulation models exploit their physical basis effectively and quantify their ability to add information to operational forecasts. The skill of decadal probabilistic hindcasts for annual global-mean and regional-mean temperatures from the EU Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is contrasted with several empirical models. Both the ENSEMBLES models and a “dynamic climatology” empirical model show probabilistic skill above that of a static climatology for global-mean temperature. The dynamic climatology model, however, often outperforms the ENSEMBLES models. The fact that empirical models display skill similar to that of today's state-of-the-art simulation models suggests that empirical forecasts can improve decadal forecasts for climate services, just as in weather, medium-range, and seasonal forecasting. It is suggested that the direct comparison of simulation models with empirical models becomes a regular component of large model forecast evaluations. Doing so would clarify the extent to which state-of-the-art simulation models provide information beyond that available from simpler empirical models and clarify current limitations in using simulation forecasting for decision support. Ultimately, the skill of simulation models based on physical principles is expected to surpass that of empirical models in a changing climate; their direct comparison provides information on progress toward that goal, which is not available in model–model intercomparisons.

Breeding Latin American tigers: operational principles for rehabilitating industrial policies

Includes bibliography

State-of-the-art in integrated vehicle health management

Integrated vehicle health management (IVHM) is a collection of data relevant to the present and future performance of a vehicle system and its transformation into information can be used to support operational decisions. This design and operation concept embraces an integration of sensors, communication technologies, and artificial intelligence to provide vehicle-wide abilities to diagnose problems and recommend solutions. This article aims to report the state-of-the-art of IVHM research by presenting a systematic review of the literature. The literature from different sources is collated and analysed, and the major emerging themes are presented. On this basis, the article describes the IVHM concept and its evolution, discusses configurations and existing applications along with main drivers, potential benefits and barriers to adoption, summarizes design guidelines and available methods, and identifies future research challenges.

Building Information Modelling in UK Construction Projects: A State of the Art Review

This paper aims to present a state-of-the-art review of the scope and practical implications of the Building Information Modelling (BIM) platform in the UK construction practice. Theoretical developments suggest that BIM is an integration of both product and process innovation, not just a disparate set of software tools. BIM provides effective collaboration, visual representation and data management, which enable the smooth flow of information throughout the project’s lifecycle. The most frequently reported benefits are related to Capital Cost (capex) and Operational costs (opex) and time savings. Key challenges, however, focus on the interoperability of software, capital installation costs, in-house experience, client preference and cultural issues within design teams and within the organisation. The paper concludes with a critical commentary on the changing roles and a process required to implement BIM in UK construction projects, and suggests areas for further research.

Engineered Nanoparticles And Organic Matter: A Review Of The State-of-the-art.

Growth in the development and production of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) in recent years has increased the potential for interactions of these nanomaterials with aquatic and terrestrial environments. Carefully designed studies are therefore required in order to understand the fate, transport, stability, and toxicity of nanoparticles. Natural organic matter (NOM), such as the humic substances found in water, sediment, and soil, is one of the substances capable of interacting with ENPs. This review presents the findings of studies of the interaction of ENPs and NOM, and the possible effects on nanoparticle stability and the toxicity of these materials in the environment. In addition, ENPs and NOM are utilized for many different purposes, including the removal of metals and organic compounds from effluents, and the development of new electronic sensors and other devices for the detection of active substances. Discussion is therefore provided of some of the ways in which NOM can be used in the production of nanoparticles. Although there has been an increase in the number of studies in this area, further progress is needed to improve understanding of the dynamic interactions between ENPs and NOM.

PAH biomarkers for human health risk assessment: a review of the state-of-the-art

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) are widely distributed in the environment, and some are carcinogenic to human beings. The study of biomarkers has helped clarify the nature and magnitude of the human health risks posed by such substances. This article provides a review of the state-of-the-art on PAH biomarkers for human health risk assessment and also discusses their applicability within the context of environmental management in Brazil. The article discusses the methodologies for determination of some biomarkers such as 1-hydroxypyrene and PAH-DNA adducts. Cytogenetic markers, frequency of chromosomal aberrations, and micronucleus induction were considered for the evaluation of cancer risk. The current stage of studies on validation of such biomarkers was also approached.

Art déco e indústria: Brasil, décadas de 1930 e 1940

Este artigo analisa as características assumidas pela arquitetura de tendência art déco em construções ligadas à indústria - moradias, igrejas, escolas, clubes, fábricas etc. - erguidas no Brasil nas décadas de 1930 e 1940, investigando o repertório formal utilizado em diferentes tipologias. Faz uma análise mais detalhada das construções criadas pela Companhia Industrial Fiação de Tecidos Goyanna, em Pernambuco, no período entre 1937 e o final da década de 1940. Trata-se de um conjunto notável pela unidade formal, vinculada à linguagem art déco, e pelo emprego de soluções inovadoras em termos de forma e de programa.

Contaminated sites and brownfield management State of art in Brazil and in Germany

Purpose - The aim of this paper is to briefly present aspects of public brownfield management policies from Brazilian and German points of view. Design methodology approach - The data collection method combined literature and documental research. The bibliography included Brazilian and German literature about brownfield management. The documental research includes Brazilian and German legislation and official documents published by CETESB, the Environmental Company of the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Furthermore, publications of German governmental research institutions have been integrated in the paper. Findings - In Brazil, despite the lack of a federal public policy, the State of São Paulo has approved specific rules to deal with contaminated sites. Topics that could be targets of scientific studies have been identified. Experiences in Germany show that it is essential to have political will and cooperation between the different political levels and technical disciplines. Partnerships between German and Brazilian universities would be welcome as there is a wide range of opportunities for academic post-graduation studies and research focusing on human resources capacitation in environmental management. Originality value - The paper makes an original contribution of exploring an area (brownfield management) that is at the forefront of discussion in academe and industry

Direct Computation of Operational Matrices for Polynomial Bases

Several numerical methods for boundary value problems use integral and differential operational matrices, expressed in polynomial bases in a Hilbert space of functions. This work presents a sequence of matrix operations allowing a direct computation of operational matrices for polynomial bases, orthogonal or not, starting with any previously known reference matrix. Furthermore, it shows how to obtain the reference matrix for a chosen polynomial base. The results presented here can be applied not only for integration and differentiation, but also for any linear operation.

State-of-the-Art and Future Directions for Green Human Resource Management: Introduction to the Special Issue

The topic of environmental sustainability is generating increased concern among business executives, governments, consumers, and management scholars. As these stakeholders struggle with the challenges and opportunities presented by an array of environmental issues, HRM scholars and practitioners alike have been relatively slow to engage in the ongoing discussions and debates. Through this special issue on Green FIRM, we seek to stimulate the field of HRM to expand its role in the pursuit of environmentally sustainable business. In this introduction to the special issue, we first provide an overview of the articles that appear in the special issue. Next we present a detailed discussion of research questions that arise from a consideration of several functional HRM practices, including performance management; training, development, and learning; compensation and rewards; and organizational culture. We conclude by describing opportunities for research at the intersection of strategic HRM and environmental management. If pursued with vigor, research addressing this extensive agenda could begin to establish a healthy field of Green FIRM scholarship.

E-Learning Used in a Training Course on Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) for Brazilian Dentists

The purpose of this study was to assess the benefits of using e-learning resources in a dental training course on Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART). This e-course was given in a DVD format, which presented the ART technique and philosophy. The participants were twenty-four dentists from the Brazilian public health system. Prior to receiving the DVD, the dentists answered a questionnaire regarding their personal data, previous knowledge about ART, and general interest in training courses. The dentists also participated in an assessment process consisting of a test applied before and after the course. A single researcher corrected the tests, and intraexaminer reproducibility was calculated (kappa=0.89). Paired t-tests were carried out to compare the means between the assessments, showing a significant improvement in the performance of the subjects on the test taken after the course (p<0.05). A linear regression model was used with the difference between the means as the outcome. A greater improvement on the test results was observed among female dentists (p=0.034), dentists working for a shorter period of time in the public health system (p=0.042), and dentists who used the ART technique only for urgent and/or temporary treatment (p=0.010). In conclusion, e-learning has the potential of improving the knowledge that dentists working in the public health system have about ART, especially those with less clinical experience and less knowledge about the subject.

Multi-objective analysis of impacts of distributed generation placement on the operational characteristics of networks for distribution system planning

Recent advances in energy technology generation and new directions in electricity regulation have made distributed generation (DG) more widespread, with consequent significant impacts on the operational characteristics of distribution networks. For this reason, new methods for identifying such impacts are needed, together with research and development of new tools and resources to maintain and facilitate continued expansion towards DG. This paper presents a study aimed at determining appropriate DG sites for distribution systems. The main considerations which determine DG sites are also presented, together with an account of the advantages gained from correct DG placement. The paper intends to define some quantitative and qualitative parameters evaluated by Digsilent (R), GARP3 (R) and DSA-GD software. A multi-objective approach based on the Bellman-Zadeh algorithm and fuzzy logic is used to determine appropriate DG sites. The study also aims to find acceptable DG locations both for distribution system feeders, as well as for nodes inside a given feeder. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of the Operational Constraints in the Active Transmission Losses Allocation via Lagrange Multipliers

This paper presents an approach for the active transmission losses allocation between the agents of the system. The approach uses the primal and dual variable information of the Optimal Power Flow in the losses allocation strategy. The allocation coefficients are determined via Lagrange multipliers. The paper emphasizes the necessity to consider the operational constraints and parameters of the systems in the problem solution. An example, for a 3-bus system is presented in details, as well as a comparative test with the main allocation methods. Case studies on the IEEE 14-bus systems are carried out to verify the influence of the constraints and parameters of the system in the losses allocation.

Physical-chemical and operational performance of an anaerobic baffled reactor (ABR) treating swine wastewater

Since hog raising concentrates a huge amount of swine manure in small areas, it is considered by the environmental government organizations to be one of the most potentially pollutant activities. Therefore the main objective of this research was to evaluate by operational criteria and removal efficiency, the performance of a Anaerobic Baffled Reactor (ABR), working as a biological pre-treatment of swine culture effluents. The physical-chemical analyses carried out were: total COD, BOD(5), total solids (TS), fix (TFS) and volatiles (TVS), temperature, pH, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, phosphorus, total acidity and alkalinity. The ABR unit worked with an average efficiency of 65.2 and 76.2%, respectively, concerning total COD and BOD(5), with a hydraulic retention time (HRT) about 15 hours. The results for volumetric organic loading rate (VOLR), organic loading rate (OLR) and hydraulic loading rate (HLR) were: 4.46 kg BOD m(-3) day(-1); 1.81 kg BOD(5) kg TVS(-1) day(-1) and 1.57 m(3) m(-3) day(-1), respectively. The average efficiency of the whole treatment system for total COD and BOD(5) removal were 66.5 and 77.8%, showing an adequate performance in removing die organic matter from swine wastewater.