Lucky numbers: Choice strategies in the Pennsylvania Daily Number game

Examined the amount of money bet during a week of Pennsylvania's Daily Number game. In this game, players receive a predetermined payoff for picking the 3-digit number (000 to 999) drawn on that day. The betting distribution was distinctly nonuniform. Several betting patterns were identified, such as picking triples and avoiding double 9s. In addition, 121 adults and 215 students were asked to rate selected numbers for randomness, luckiness, and perceived history of winning; to categorize numbers; and to free associate to numbers. It is proposed that people seem to choose highly patterned, available, and/or "lucky" numbers. People apparently do not bet numbers that reflect the random process of the game (do not utilize a representativeness heuristic).

Estimating the number of motor units using random sums with independently thinned terms

The problem of estimating the numbers of motor units N in a muscle is embedded in a general stochastic model using the notion of thinning from point process theory. In the paper a new moment type estimator for the numbers of motor units in a muscle is denned, which is derived using random sums with independently thinned terms. Asymptotic normality of the estimator is shown and its practical value is demonstrated with bootstrap and approximative confidence intervals for a data set from a 31-year-old healthy right-handed, female volunteer. Moreover simulation results are presented and Monte-Carlo based quantiles, means, and variances are calculated for N in{300,600,1000}.

Foundations of stochastic geometry and theory of random sets

The first section of this chapter starts with the Buffon problem, which is one of the oldest in stochastic geometry, and then continues with the definition of measures on the space of lines. The second section defines random closed sets and related measurability issues, explains how to characterize distributions of random closed sets by means of capacity functionals and introduces the concept of a selection. Based on this concept, the third section starts with the definition of the expectation and proves its convexifying effect that is related to the Lyapunov theorem for ranges of vector-valued measures. Finally, the strong law of large numbers for Minkowski sums of random sets is proved and the corresponding limit theorem is formulated. The chapter is concluded by a discussion of the union-scheme for random closed sets and a characterization of the corresponding stable laws.

Large deviations for heavy-tailed random elements in convex cones

We prove large deviation results for sums of heavy-tailed random elements in rather general convex cones being semigroups equipped with a rescaling operation by positive real numbers. In difference to previous results for the cone of convex sets, our technique does not use the embedding of cones in linear spaces. Examples include the cone of convex sets with the Minkowski addition, positive half-line with maximum operation and the family of square integrable functions with arithmetic addition and argument rescaling.

Prevalence of gastro esophageal reflux disease following the Montreal Consensus and its association with Helicobacter pylori infection and obesity in a random sample of adults of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, 2004.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease is a common condition affecting 25 to 40% of the population and causes significant morbidity in the U.S., accounting for at least 9 million office visits to physicians with estimated annual costs of $10 billion. Previous research has not clearly established whether infection with Helicobacter pylori, a known cause of peptic ulcer, atrophic gastritis and non cardia adenocarcinoma of the stomach, is associated with gastroesophageal reflux disease. This study is a secondary analysis of data collected in a cross-sectional study of a random sample of adult residents of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, that was conducted in 2004 (Prevalence and Determinants of Chronic Atrophic Gastritis Study or CAG study, Dr. Victor M. Cardenas, Principal Investigator). In this study, the presence of gastroesophageal reflux disease was based on responses to the previously validated Spanish Language Dyspepsia Questionnaire. Responses to this questionnaire indicating the presence of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms and disease were compared with the presence of H. pylori infection as measured by culture, histology and rapid urease test, and with findings of upper endoscopy (i.e., hiatus hernia and erosive and atrophic esophagitis). The prevalence ratio was calculated using bivariate, stratified and multivariate negative binomial logistic regression analyses in order to assess the relation between active H. pylori infection and the prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux typical syndrome and disease, while controlling for known risk factors of gastroesophageal reflux disease such as obesity. In a random sample of 174 adults 48 (27.6%) of the study participants had typical reflux syndrome and only 5% (or 9/174) had gastroesophageal reflux disease per se according to the Montreal consensus, which defines reflux syndromes and disease based on whether the symptoms are perceived as troublesome by the subject. There was no association between H. pylori infection and typical reflux syndrome or gastroesophageal reflux disease. However, we found that in this Northern Mexican population, there was a moderate association (Prevalence Ratio=2.5; 95% CI=1.3, 4.7) between obesity (≥30 kg/m2) and typical reflux syndrome. Management and prevention of obesity will significantly curb the growing numbers of persons affected by gastroesophageal reflux symptoms and disease in Northern Mexico. ^

Advances in random matrix theory, zeta functions, and sphere packing

Over four hundred years ago, Sir Walter Raleigh asked his mathematical assistant to find formulas for the number of cannonballs in regularly stacked piles. These investigations aroused the curiosity of the astronomer Johannes Kepler and led to a problem that has gone centuries without a solution: why is the familiar cannonball stack the most efficient arrangement possible? Here we discuss the solution that Hales found in 1998. Almost every part of the 282-page proof relies on long computer verifications. Random matrix theory was developed by physicists to describe the spectra of complex nuclei. In particular, the statistical fluctuations of the eigenvalues (“the energy levels”) follow certain universal laws based on symmetry types. We describe these and then discuss the remarkable appearance of these laws for zeros of the Riemann zeta function (which is the generating function for prime numbers and is the last special function from the last century that is not understood today.) Explaining this phenomenon is a central problem. These topics are distinct, so we present them separately with their own introductory remarks.

Does the abundance of hoverfly mimics (Syrphidae) depend on the numbers of their hymenopteran models ?

We tested the prediction that, if hoverflies are Batesian mimics, this may extend to behavioral mimicry such that their numerical abundance at each hour of the day (the daily activity pattern) is related to the numbers of their hymenopteran models. After accounting for site, season, microclimatic responses and for general hoverfly abundance at three sites in north-west England, the residual numbers of mimics were significantly correlated positively with their models 9 times out of 17, while 16 out of 17 relationships were positive, itself a highly significant non-random pattern. Several eristaline flies showed significant relationships with honeybees even though some of them mimic wasps or bumblebees, perhaps reflecting an ancestral resemblance to honeybees. There was no evidence that good and poor mimics differed in their daily activity pattern relationships with models. However, the common mimics showed significant activity pattern relationships with their models, but the rarer mimics did not. We conclude that many hoverflies show behavioral mimicry of their hymenopteran models.

Biased Random-key Genetic Algorithms For The Winner Determination Problem In Combinatorial Auctions.

Abstract In this paper, we address the problem of picking a subset of bids in a general combinatorial auction so as to maximize the overall profit using the first-price model. This winner determination problem assumes that a single bidding round is held to determine both the winners and prices to be paid. We introduce six variants of biased random-key genetic algorithms for this problem. Three of them use a novel initialization technique that makes use of solutions of intermediate linear programming relaxations of an exact mixed integer-linear programming model as initial chromosomes of the population. An experimental evaluation compares the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms with the standard mixed linear integer programming formulation, a specialized exact algorithm, and the best-performing heuristics proposed for this problem. The proposed algorithms are competitive and offer strong results, mainly for large-scale auctions.

Synthesis and structural characterization of block and random low molecular weight copolymers composed of L-lactic acid and isosorbide succinate moieties

Isosorbide succinate moieties were incorporated into poly(L-lactide) (PLLA) backbone in order to obtain a new class of biodegradable polymer with enhanced properties. This paper describes the synthesis and characterization of four types of low molecular weight copolymers. Copolymer I was obtained from monomer mixtures of L-lactide, isosorbide, and succinic anhydride; II from oligo(L-lactide) (PLLA), isosorbide, and succinic anhydride; III from oligo(isosorbide succinate) (PIS) and L-lactide; and IV from transesterification reactions between PLLA and PIS. MALDI-TOFMS and 13C-NMR analyses gave evidence that co-oligomerization was successfully attained in all cases. The data suggested that the product I is a random co-oligomer and the products II-IV are block co-oligomers.

Influence of memory in deterministic walks in random media: Analytical calculation within a mean-field approximation

Consider a random medium consisting of N points randomly distributed so that there is no correlation among the distances separating them. This is the random link model, which is the high dimensionality limit (mean-field approximation) for the Euclidean random point structure. In the random link model, at discrete time steps, a walker moves to the nearest point, which has not been visited in the last mu steps (memory), producing a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (the tourist walk). We have analytically obtained the distribution of the number n of points explored by the walker with memory mu=2, as well as the transient and period joint distribution. This result enables us to explain the abrupt change in the exploratory behavior between the cases mu=1 (memoryless walker, driven by extreme value statistics) and mu=2 (walker with memory, driven by combinatorial statistics). In the mu=1 case, the mean newly visited points in the thermodynamic limit (N >> 1) is just < n >=e=2.72... while in the mu=2 case, the mean number < n > of visited points grows proportionally to N(1/2). Also, this result allows us to establish an equivalence between the random link model with mu=2 and random map (uncorrelated back and forth distances) with mu=0 and the abrupt change between the probabilities for null transient time and subsequent ones.

Effect of Low-Level Laser Therapy on Malondialdehyde Concentration in Random Cutaneous Flap Viability

Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the effects of 830 and 670 nm laser on malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration in random skin-flap survival. Background Data: Low-level laser therapy (LLLT) has been reported to be successful in stimulating the formation of new blood vessels and activating superoxide-dismutase delivery, thus helping the inhibition of free-radical action and consequently reducing necrosis. Materials and Methods: Thirty Wistar rats were used and divided into three groups, with 10 rats in each one. A random skin flap was raised on the dorsum of each animal. Group 1 was the control group; group 2 received 830 nm laser radiation; and group 3 was submitted to 670 nm laser radiation. The animals underwent laser therapy with 36 J/cm(2) energy density immediately after surgery and on the 4 days subsequent to surgery. The application site of the laser radiation was 1 point, 2.5 cm from the flap's cranial base. The percentage of the skin-flap necrosis area was calculated 7 days postoperative using the paper-template method, and a skin sample was collected immediately after as a way of determining the MDA concentration. Results: Statistically significant differences were found between the necrosis percentages, with higher values seen in group 1 compared with groups 2 and 3. Groups 2 and 3 did not present statistically significant differences (p > 0.05). Group 3 had a lower concentration of MDA values compared to the control group (p < 0.05). Conclusion: LLLT was effective in increasing the random skin-flap viability in rats, and the 670 nm laser was efficient in reducing the MDA concentration.

Multi-trait and random regression mature weight heritability and breeding value estimates in Nelore cattle

Mature weight breeding values were estimated using a multi-trait animal model (MM) and a random regression animal model (RRM). Data consisted of 82 064 weight records from 8 145 animals, recorded from birth to eight years of age. Weights at standard ages were considered in the MM. All models included contemporary groups as fixed effects, and age of dam (linear and quadratic effects) and animal age as covariates. In the RRM, mean trends were modelled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age and genetic maternal and direct and maternal permanent environmental effects were also included as random. Legendre polynomials of orders 4, 3, 6 and 3 were used for animal and maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, considering five classes of residual variances. Mature weight (five years) direct heritability estimates were 0.35 (MM) and 0.38 (RRM). Rank correlation between sires' breeding values estimated by MM and RRM was 0.82. However, selecting the top 2% (12) or 10% (62) of the young sires based on the MM predicted breeding values, respectively 71% and 80% of the same sires would be selected if RRM estimates were used instead. The RRM modelled the changes in the (co) variances with age adequately and larger breeding value accuracies can be expected using this model.

Random X Inactivation and Extensive Mosaicism in Human Placenta Revealed by Analysis of Allele-Specific Gene Expression along the X Chromosome

Imprinted inactivation of the paternal X chromosome in marsupials is the primordial mechanism of dosage compensation for X-linked genes between females and males in Therians. In Eutherian mammals, X chromosome inactivation (XCI) evolved into a random process in cells from the embryo proper, where either the maternal or paternal X can be inactivated. However, species like mouse and bovine maintained imprinted XCI exclusively in extraembryonic tissues. The existence of imprinted XCI in humans remains controversial, with studies based on the analyses of only one or two X-linked genes in different extraembryonic tissues. Here we readdress this issue in human term placenta by performing a robust analysis of allele-specific expression of 22 X-linked genes, including XIST, using 27 SNPs in transcribed regions. We show that XCI is random in human placenta, and that this organ is arranged in relatively large patches of cells with either maternal or paternal inactive X. In addition, this analysis indicated heterogeneous maintenance of gene silencing along the inactive X, which combined with the extensive mosaicism found in placenta, can explain the lack of agreement among previous studies. Our results illustrate the differences of XCI mechanism between humans and mice, and highlight the importance of addressing the issue of imprinted XCI in other species in order to understand the evolution of dosage compensation in placental mammals.

Disordered ensembles of random matrices

It is shown that the families of generalized matrix ensembles recently considered which give rise to an orthogonal invariant stable Levy ensemble can be generated by the simple procedure of dividing Gaussian matrices by a random variable. The nonergodicity of this kind of disordered ensembles is investigated. It is shown that the same procedure applied to random graphs gives rise to a family that interpolates between the Erdos-Renyi and the scale free models.

A study of disorder effects in random (Al(x)Ga(1-x)As)(n)(Al(y)Ga(1-y)As)(m) superlattices embedded in a wide parabolic potential

A photoluminescence (PL) study of the individual electron states localized in a random potential is performed in artificially disordered superlattices embedded in a wide parabolic well. The valence band bowing of the parabolic potential provides a variation of the emission energies which splits the optical transitions corresponding to different wells within the random potential. The blueshift of the PL lines emitted by individual random wells, observed with increasing disorder strength, is demonstrated. The variation of temperature and magnetic field allowed for the behavior of the electrons localized in individual wells of the random potential to be distinguished.