Tendência temporal e desigualdades na mortalidade por diarreias em

Objetivo: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por diarreia entre menores de 5 anos, no município de Osasco (SP), entre 1980 e 2000. Métodos: Trata-se de estudo observacional com dois delineamentos. Um descritivo, que toma o indivíduo como unidade do estudo, e outro ecológico, analisando agregado populacional que incluiu análise de séries temporais. A fonte de dados foi o sistema de informação de mortalidade do Estado de São Paulo e censos de 1980, 1991 e 2000. Descreveu-se a variação sazonal e para a análise de tendência aplicaram-se modelos log lineares de regressão polinomiais, utilizando-se variáveis sociodemográficas da criança e da mãe. Foram analisadas a evolução de indicadores sociodemográficos do município de 1980 a 2000, as taxas médias de mortalidade por diarreia nos menores de 5 anos e seus diferenciais por distrito nos anos 90. Resultados: Dos 1.360 óbitos, 94,3 e 75,3% atingiram, respectivamente, menores de 1 ano e de 6 meses. O declínio da mortalidade foi de 98,3%, com deslocamento da sazonalidade do verão para o outono. A mediana da idade elevou-se de 2 meses nos primeiros períodos para 3 meses no último. O resíduo de óbitos manteve-se entre filhos de mães de 20 a 29 anos e escolaridade < 8 anos. O risco relativo entre o distrito mais atingido e a taxa média do município diminuiu de 3,4 para 1,3 do primeiro para o segundo quinquênio dos anos 90. Conclusão: Nossos resultados apontam uma elevação da idade mais vulnerável e a provável mudança do agente mais frequentemente associado ao óbito por diarreia

Confiabilidade teste-reteste de aspectos da rede social no Estudo Pró-Saúde

OBJETIVO: Avaliar os níveis de confiabilidade teste-reteste de informações relativas à rede social no Estudo Pró-saúde. MÉTODOS: Foi estimada a confiabilidade pelo estudo teste-reteste por meio de questionário multidimensional aplicado a uma coorte de trabalhadores de uma universidade. O mesmo questionário foi preenchido duas vezes por 192 funcionários não efetivos da universidade, com duas semanas de intervalo entre as aplicações. A concordância foi estimada pela estatística Kappa (variáveis categóricas), estatística Kappa ponderado e modelos log-lineares (variáveis ordinais), e coeficiente de correlação intraclasse (variáveis discretas). RESULTADOS: As medidas de concordância situaram-se acima de 0,70 para a maioria das variáveis. Estratificando-se as informações segundo gênero, idade e escolaridade, observou-se que a confiabilidade não apresentou padrão consistente de variabilidade. A aplicação de modelos log-lineares indicou que, para as variáveis ordinais do estudo, o modelo de melhor ajuste foi o de "concordância diagonal mais associação linear por linear". CONCLUSÕES: Os altos níveis de confiabilidade estimados permitem concluir que o processo de aferição dos itens sobre rede social foi adequado para as características investigadas. Estudos de validação em andamento complementarão a avaliação da qualidade dessas informações.

Famílias estruturadas de modelos com modelo base ortogonal: Teoria e aplicações

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Matemática com especialização em Estatística pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia.

Relatório sobre “Surgical cases packages”

Problema apresentado pelo Hospital de Braga no 109th European Study Group with Industry 10 a 15 de maio de 2015. Departamento de Produção e Sistemas Escola de Engenharia da Universidade do Minho Guimarães Portugal 24 de julho de 2015

Análise de Dados de Desemprego em Cabo Verde

Este trabalho baseia-se na análise de dados do desemprego em Cabo Verde nos anos de 2006 e 2008, usando informação da base de dados do INE e IEFP. Partindo da análise dos dados em estudo vai-se procurar descrever e perspectivar metodologias que contemplam as variáveis qualitativas e quantitativas com significado social positivo para a sociedade deste país. Após a introdução no capítulo 1, fez-se, no capítulo 2, a análise exploratória dos dados do desemprego em Cabo Verde referente aos anos 2006 e 2008. No capítulo 3 estudam-se associações entre variáveis, usando a metodologia de tabelas contingência, através da realização de testes de independência e testes de homogeneidade, e análise de medidas de associação. As variáveis usadas, vão ser essencialmente, o escalão etário, o género e o ano. O capítulo 4 é dedicado ao estudo de modelos Log - lineares em tabela de contingência, finalizando-se o trabalho com a apresentação das principais conclusões.

Testing the optimality of aggregate consumption decisions: is there rule-of-thumb behavior?

Consumption is an important macroeconomic aggregate, being about 70% of GNP. Finding sub-optimal behavior in consumption decisions casts a serious doubt on whether optimizing behavior is applicable on an economy-wide scale, which, in turn, challenge whether it is applicable at all. This paper has several contributions to the literature on consumption optimality. First, we provide a new result on the basic rule-of-thumb regression, showing that it is observational equivalent to the one obtained in a well known optimizing real-business-cycle model. Second, for rule-of-thumb tests based on the Asset-Pricing Equation, we show that the omission of the higher-order term in the log-linear approximation yields inconsistent estimates when lagged observables are used as instruments. However, these are exactly the instruments that have been traditionally used in this literature. Third, we show that nonlinear estimation of a system of N Asset-Pricing Equations can be done efficiently even if the number of asset returns (N) is high vis-a-vis the number of time-series observations (T). We argue that efficiency can be restored by aggregating returns into a single measure that fully captures intertemporal substitution. Indeed, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. This forms the basis of a new test of rule-of-thumb behavior, which can be viewed as testing for the importance of rule-of-thumb consumers when the optimizing agent holds an equally-weighted portfolio or a weighted portfolio of traded assets. Using our setup, we find no signs of either rule-of-thumb behavior for U.S. consumers or of habit-formation in consumption decisions in econometric tests. Indeed, we show that the simple representative agent model with a CRRA utility is able to explain the time series data on consumption and aggregate returns. There, the intertemporal discount factor is significant and ranges from 0.956 to 0.969 while the relative risk-aversion coefficient is precisely estimated ranging from 0.829 to 1.126. There is no evidence of rejection in over-identifying-restriction tests.

SVR-GARCH com misturas de kernels gaussianos

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Administração, Programa de Pós-graduação em Administração, 2016.

Atividade fisica, um paradoxo para a saude : estudo a partir de universitários recem-ingressos ao Curso de Medicina

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

The influence of environmental variables on capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris: Rodentia, Hydrochoeridae) detectability in anthropogenic environments of southeastern Brazil

Capybaras were monitored weekly from 1998 to 2006 by counting individuals in three anthropogenic environments (mixed agricultural fields, forest and open areas) of southeastern Brazil in order to examine the possible influence of environmental variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation and global radiation) on the detectability of this species. There was consistent seasonality in the number of capybaras in the study area, with a specific seasonal pattern in each area. Log-linear models were fitted to the sample counts of adult capybaras separately for each sampled area, with an allowance for monthly effects, time trends and the effects of environmental variables. Log-linear models containing effects for the months of the year and a quartic time trend were highly significant. The effects of environmental variables on sample counts were different in each type of environment. As environmental variables affect capybara detectability, they should be considered in future species survey/monitoring programs.

A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region

PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Brazil: mortality and hospitalization trends and rates, 1996-2008

SETTING: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death among adults in Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the mortality and hospitalisation trends in Brazil caused by COPD during the period 1996-2008. DESIGN: We used the health official statistics system to obtain data about mortality (1996-2008) and morbidity (1998-2008) due to COPD and all respiratory diseases (tuberculosis: codes A15-16; lung cancer: code C34, and all diseases coded from J40 to 47 in the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases) as the underlying cause, in persons aged 45-74 years. We used the Joinpoint Regression Program log-linear model using Poisson regression that creates a Monte Carlo permutation test to identify points where trend lines change significantly in magnitude/direction to verify peaks and trends. RESULTS: The annual per cent change in age-adjusted death rates due to COPD declined by 2.7% in men (95%CI -3.6 to -1.8) and -2.0% (95%CI -2.9 to -1.0) in women; and due to all respiratory causes it declined by -1.7% (95%CI 2.4 to -1.0) in men and -1.1% (95%CI -1.8 to -0.3) in women. Although hospitalisation rates for COPD are declining, the hospital admission fatality rate increased in both sexes. CONCLUSION: COPD is still a leading cause of mortality in Brazil despite the observed decline in the mortality/hospitalisation rates for both sexes.

VKORC1 polymorphisms in Brazilians: comparison with the Portuguese and Portuguese-speaking Africans and pharmacogenetic implications

Aims: The heterogeneity of the Brazilian population renders the extrapolation of pharmacogenomic data derived from well-defined ethnic groups inappropriate. We investigated the influence of self-reported `race/color`, geographical origin and genetic ancestry on the distribution of four VKORC1 SNPs and haplotypes in Brazilians. Comparative data were obtained from two major ancestral roots of Brazilians: Portuguese and Africans from former Portuguese colonies. Materials & methods: A total of 1037 healthy adults Brazilians, recruited at four different geographical regions and self identified as white, brown or black (race/color categories), 89 Portuguese and 216 Africans from Angola and Mozambique were genotyped for the VKORC1 3673G>A (rs9923231), 5808T>G (rs2884737), 6853G>C (rs8050894) and 9041G>A (rs7294) polymorphisms using TaqMan (R) (Applied Biosystems, CA, USA) assays. VKORC1 haplotypes were statistically inferred using the haplo.stats software. We inferred the statistical association between the distribution of the VKORC1 polymorphisms among Brazilians and self-reported color, geographical region and genetic ancestry by fitting multinomial log linear models via neural networks. Individual proportions of European and African ancestry were used to assess the impact of genetic admixture on the frequency distribution of VKORC1 polymorphisms among Brazilians, and for the comparison of Brazilians with Portuguese and Africans. Results: The frequency distribution of the 3673G>A and 5808T>G polymorphisms, and VKORC1 haplotypes among Brazilians varies across geographical regions, within self-reported color categories and according to the individual proportions of European and African genetic ancestry. Notably, the frequency of the warfarin sensitive VKORC1 3673A allele and the distribution of VKORC1 haplotypes varied continuously as the individual proportion of European ancestry increased in the entire cohort, independently of race/color categorization and geographical origin. Brazilians with more than 80% African ancestry differ significantly from Angolans and Mozambicans in frequency of the 3673G>A, 5808T>G and 6853G>C polymorphisms and haplotype distribution, whereas no such differences are observed between Brazilians with more than 90% European ancestry and Portuguese individuals. Conclusion: The diversity of the Brazilian population, evident in the distribution of VKORC1 polymorphisms, must be taken into account in the design of pharmacogenetic clinical trials and dealt with as a continuous variable. Warfarin dosing algorithms that include `race` terms defined for other populations are clearly not applicable to the heterogeneous and extensively admixed Brazilian population.

Disposition of naproxen, naproxen acyl glucuronide and its rearrangement isomers in the isolated perfused rat liver

1. An isolated perfused rat liver (IPRL) preparation was used to investigate separately the disposition of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) naproxen (NAP), its reactive acyl glucuronide metabolite (NAG) and a mixture of NAG rearrangement isomers (isoNAG), each at 30 mug NAP equivalents ml(-1) perfusate (n = 4 each group). 2. Following administration to the IPRL, NAP was eliminated slowly in a log-linear manner with an apparent elimination half-life (t(1/2)) of 13.4 +/-4.4 h. No metabolites were detected in perfusate, while NAG was the only metabolite present in bile in measurable amounts (3.9 +/-0.8%, of the dose). Following their administration to the IPRL, both NAG and isoNAG were rapidly hydrolysed (t(1/2) in perfusate=57 +/-3 and 75 +/- 14min respectively). NAG also rearranged to isoNAG in the perfusate. Both NAG and isoNAG were excreted intact in bile (24.6 and 14.8% of the NAG and isoNAG doses, respectively). 3. Covalent NAP-protein adducts in the liver increased as the dose changed from NAP to NAG to isoNAG (0.20 to 0.34 to 0.48% of the doses, respectively). Similarly, formation of covalent NAP-protein adducts in perfusate were greater in isoNAG-dosed perfusions. The comparative results Suggest that isoNAG is a better substrate for adduct formation with liver proteins than NAG.

Use of confocal microscopy to follow the development of penetrative hyphae during growth of Rhizopus oligosporus in an artificial solid-state fermentation system

Two methods were compared for determining the concentration of penetrative biomass during growth of Rhizopus oligosporus on an artificial solid substrate consisting of an inert gel and starch as the sole source of carbon and energy. The first method was based on the use of a hand microtome to make sections of approximately 0.2- to 0.4-mm thickness parallel to the substrate surface and the determination of the glucosamine content in each slice. Use of glucosamine measurements to estimate biomass concentrations was shown to be problematic due to the large variations in glucosamine content with mycelial age. The second method was a novel method based on the use of confocal scanning laser microscopy to estimate the fractional volume occupied by the biomass. Although it is not simple to translate fractional volumes into dry weights of hyphae due to the lack of experimentally determined conversion factors, measurement of the fractional volumes in themselves is useful for characterizing fungal penetration into the substrate. Growth of penetrative biomass in the artificial model substrate showed two forms of growth with an indistinct mass in the region close to the substrate surface and a few hyphae penetrating perpendicularly to the surface in regions further away from the substrate surface. The biomass profiles against depth obtained from the confocal microscopy showed two linear regions on log-linear plots, which are possibly related to different oxygen availability at different depths within the substrate. Confocal microscopy has the potential to be a powerful tool in the investigation of fungal growth mechanisms in solid-state fermentation. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Análise multivariada de fatores de risco para o baixo peso ao nascer em nascidos vivos do município de São Paulo, SP (Brasil)

Em casuística de 20.850 nascidos vivos não gemelares ocorridos em 31 maternidades do Município de São Paulo, SP, Brasil (parte da casuística total do Estudo Antropométrico do Recém-nascido Brasileiro), procurou-se identificar fatores de risco para o baixo peso ao nascer (peso < 2.500 g), tendo sido estipulados a priori, para estudo, os fatores escolaridade materna, estado marital, idade materna, paridade, peso pré-gestacional, tabagismo na gravidez e assistência pré-natal. A partir de análise multivariada pela técnica de modelos log-lineares, foram identificados quatro fatores de risco significativos: "ausência de assistência pré-natal", "peso pré-gestacional < 50 kg", "tabagismo na gestação" e "idade materna < 20 anos". O risco relativo associado a "ausência de pré-natal" foi de 2,2 nas mães de escolaridade inferior ao ginásio completo e de 3,4 nas de escolaridade igual ou superior àquele nível. Os riscos associados às características maternas de peso, tabagismo e idade foram respectivamente 1,9, 1,7 e 1,4 e independentes da escolaridade materna. Considerando-se além da magnitude dos riscos detectados a freqüência com que os fatores de risco se apresentaram na população, constatou-se que o peso pré-gestacional insuficiente, o tabagismo na gestação e a ausência de assistência pré-natal, particularmente em mães de "baixa escolaridade", são fatores cujo controle exerceria importante decréscimo na incidência de recém-nascidos de baixo peso. Assim sendo, tais fatores deveriam ser cuidadosamente considerados em programas de intervenção.