The Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders: Report on the Design, Implementation, and Descriptive Results for 2006

This technical memorandum documents the design, implementation, data preparation, and descriptive results for the 2006 Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders. The data collection was designed by the NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center Social Science Research Group to track the financial and economic status and performance by vessels holding a federal moratorium permit for harvesting shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico. A two page, self-administered mail survey collected total annual costs broken out into seven categories and auxiliary economic data. In May 2007, 580 vessels were randomly selected, stratified by state, from a preliminary population of 1,709 vessels with federal permits to shrimp in offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The survey was implemented during the rest of 2007. After many reminder and verification phone calls, 509 surveys were deemed complete, for an ineligibility-adjusted response rate of 90.7%. The linking of each individual vessel’s cost data to its revenue data from a different data collection was imperfect, and hence the final number of observations used in the analyses is 484. Based on various measures and tests of validity throughout the technical memorandum, the quality of the data is high. The results are presented in a standardized table format, linking vessel characteristics and operations to simple balance sheet, cash flow, and income statements. In the text, results are discussed for the total fleet, the Gulf shrimp fleet, the active Gulf shrimp fleet, and the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet. Additional results for shrimp vessels grouped by state, by vessel characteristics, by landings volume, and by ownership structure are available in the appendices. The general conclusion of this report is that the financial and economic situation is bleak for the average vessels in most of the categories that were evaluated. With few exceptions, cash flow for the average vessel is positive while the net revenue from operations and the “profit” are negative. With negative net revenue from operations, the economic return for average shrimp vessels is less than zero. Only with the help of government payments does the average owner just about break even. In the short-term, this will discourage any new investments in the industry. The financial situation in 2006, especially if it endures over multiple years, also is economically unsustainable for the average established business. Vessels in the active and inactive Gulf shrimp fleet are, on average, 69 feet long, weigh 105 gross tons, are powered by 505 hp motor(s), and are 23 years old. Three-quarters of the vessels have steel hulls and 59% use a freezer for refrigeration. The average market value of these vessels was $175,149 in 2006, about a hundred-thousand dollars less than the average original purchase price. The outstanding loans averaged $91,955, leading to an average owner equity of $83,194. Based on the sample, 85% of the federally permitted Gulf shrimp fleet was actively shrimping in 2006. Of these 386 active Gulf shrimp vessels, just under half (46%) were owner-operated. On average, these vessels burned 52,931 gallons of fuel, landed 101,268 pounds of shrimp, and received $2.47 per pound of shrimp. Non-shrimp landings added less than 1% to cash flow, indicating that the federal Gulf shrimp fishery is very specialized. The average total cash outflow was $243,415 of which $108,775 was due to fuel expenses alone. The expenses for hired crew and captains were on average $54,866 which indicates the importance of the industry as a source of wage income. The resulting average net cash flow is $16,225 but has a large standard deviation. For the population of active Gulf shrimp vessels we can state with 95% certainty that the average net cash flow was between $9,500 and $23,000 in 2006. The median net cash flow was $11,843. Based on the income statement for active Gulf shrimp vessels, the average fixed costs accounted for just under a quarter of operating expenses (23.1%), labor costs for just over a quarter (25.3%), and the non-labor variable costs for just over half (51.6%). The fuel costs alone accounted for 42.9% of total operating expenses in 2006. It should be noted that the labor cost category in the income statement includes both the actual cash payments to hired labor and an estimate of the opportunity cost of owner-operators’ time spent as captain. The average labor contribution (as captain) of an owner-operator is estimated at about $19,800. The average net revenue from operations is negative $7,429, and is statistically different and less than zero in spite of a large standard deviation. The economic return to Gulf shrimping is negative 4%. Including non-operating activities, foremost an average government payment of $13,662, leads to an average loss before taxes of $907 for the vessel owners. The confidence interval of this value straddles zero, so we cannot reject, with 95% certainty, that the population average is zero. The average inactive Gulf shrimp vessel is generally of a smaller scale than the average active vessel. Inactive vessels are physically smaller, are valued much lower, and are less dependent on loans. Fixed costs account for nearly three quarters of the total operating expenses of $11,926, and only 6% of these vessels have hull insurance. With an average net cash flow of negative $7,537, the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet has a major liquidity problem. On average, net revenue from operations is negative $11,396, which amounts to a negative 15% economic return, and owners lose $9,381 on their vessels before taxes. To sustain such losses and especially to survive the negative cash flow, many of the owners must be subsidizing their shrimp vessels with the help of other income or wealth sources or are drawing down their equity. Active Gulf shrimp vessels in all states but Texas exhibited negative returns. The Alabama and Mississippi fleets have the highest assets (vessel values), on average, yet they generate zero cash flow and negative $32,224 net revenue from operations. Due to their high (loan) leverage ratio the negative 11% economic return is amplified into a negative 21% return on equity. In contrast, for Texas vessels, which actually have the highest leverage ratio among the states, a 1% economic return is amplified into a 13% return on equity. From a financial perspective, the average Florida and Louisiana vessels conform roughly to the overall average of the active Gulf shrimp fleet. It should be noted that these results are averages and hence hide the variation that clearly exists within all fleets and all categories. Although the financial situation for the average vessel is bleak, some vessels are profitable. (PDF contains 101 pages)

The Impact of AIDS on Government Service Delivery: The Case of the Zambia Wildlife Authority

Background: The loss of working-aged adults to HIV/AIDS has been shown to increase the costs of labor to the private sector in Africa. There is little corresponding evidence for the public sector. This study evaluated the impact of AIDS on the capacity of a government agency, the Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA), to patrol Zambia’s national parks. Methods: Data were collected from ZAWA on workforce characteristics, recent mortality, costs, and the number of days spent on patrol between 2003 and 2005 by a sample of 76 current patrol officers (reference subjects) and 11 patrol officers who died of AIDS or suspected AIDS (index subjects). An estimate was made of the impact of AIDS on service delivery capacity and labor costs and the potential net benefits of providing treatment. Results: Reference subjects spent an average of 197.4 days on patrol per year. After adjusting for age, years of service, and worksite, index subjects spent 62.8 days on patrol in their last year of service (68% decrease, p<0.0001), 96.8 days on patrol in their second to last year of service (51% decrease, p<0.0001), and 123.7 days on patrol in their third to last year of service (37% decrease, p<0.0001). For each employee who died, ZAWA lost an additional 111 person-days for management, funeral attendance, vacancy, and recruitment and training of a replacement, resulting in a total productivity loss per death of 2.0 person-years. Each AIDS-related death also imposed budgetary costs for care, benefits, recruitment, and training equivalent to 3.3 years’ annual compensation. In 2005, AIDS reduced service delivery capacity by 6.2% and increased labor costs by 9.7%. If antiretroviral therapy could be provided for $500/patient/year, net savings to ZAWA would approach $285,000/year. Conclusion: AIDS is constraining ZAWA’s ability to protect Zambia’s wildlife and parks. Impacts on this government agency are substantially larger than have been observed in the private sector. Provision of ART would result in net budgetary savings to ZAWA and greatly increase its service delivery capacity.

The determinants of Foreign Direct Investments attraction in Portugal and Spain: A comparative analysis

Double Degree. A Work Project presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics and a Master Degree in Business Engineering from Louvain School of Management

Wage adjustments under extreme downward nominal wage rigidity

Using a rich and highly accurate dataset for Portugal spanning from 1986 to 2013, this paper analyzes the determinants of downward nominal wage rigidity, mainly focusing on macroeconomic factors. The data supports the hypothesis that recessionary periods alongside with low in ation contribute to a higher degree of wage rigidity, as measured by the incidence of nominal wage freezes. It is further highlighted how this lack of wage adjustments con- tributed to an increase in labor costs which culminated in a wage markup of 6-7%. This paper, thus seems to corroborate the argument that low in ation did exacerbated the downward in exibility of (real) wages after the Great Recession.

Portuguese footwear

This case study deals with the reasons why the Portuguese Footwear Cluster evolved from a small industry focused on the Portuguese internal market into a high-tech industry capable of designing and producing some of the best and most expensive shoes in the world. It went from using the low labor costs of an under-developed economy to produce long series of shoes for pre-designated brands in Northern Europe to having the ability to produce some of the highest quality shoes in the world, in small orders, designed and delivered in record timing, while offering a service of excellence. In 1960, when Portugal became a founding member of EFTA, the footwear industry in Portugal was globally irrelevant, producing low quality shoes directed to the puny internal market and its African colonies. The new free trade zone with economies much more developed that itself, led to the transfer of the labor-intensive, low skilled manufacture from the UK and Scandinavian countries to Portugal. Mostly through joint ventures, the industry was able to mechanize itself so it could produce shoes in long series at low prices. It grew based on that model up until the 1990s, when the emergence of the Asian countries meant either a different strategy or extinction. Taking advantage of a clarified leadership of its trade association, it used the European funds made available to it during the 1990s, to modernize its factory floors, so it could become more nimble and flexible, expand its design capabilities and dramatically change its image abroad. The role of the trade association, APICCAPS, was instrumental throughout the process going well beyond what came to be expected of trade associations. It used its privileged position to provide understanding regarding the current situation and competitive landscape, alerting for changes ahead and at the same time providing a strategic vision on how to deal with the challenges. Moreover, it helped companies get the resources they needed by creating a research center in collaboration with a University, by creating a process that allowed companies to learn from each other via the show casing of projects sponsored by the association or by helping industrials traveling to locations where new customers could be found. The case study provides insight on how the trade association leadership, which has no formal authority over its members, was able to guide and motivate an industry through a consistent positive approach. That approach focused on the solutions, on the opportunities and on the success stories of companies in the cluster rather than on what was wrong or needed to be addressed. Based on this case, one could use the leadership role of the trade association to discuss and change leaders’ roles and styles in other sectors or even companies.

Wage Policy of Firms: an Empirical Investigation.

This paper analyzes the dynamics of wages and workers' mobility within firms with a hierarchical structure of job levels. The theoretical model proposed by Gibbons and Waldman (1999), that combines the notions of human capital accumulation, job rank assignments based on comparative advantage and learning about workers' abilities, is implemented empirically to measure the importance of these elements in explaining the wage policy of firms. Survey data from the GSOEP (German Socio-Economic Panel) are used to draw conclusions on the common features characterizing the wage policy of firms from a large sample of firms. The GSOEP survey also provides information on the worker's rank within his firm which is usually not available in other surveys. The results are consistent with non-random selection of workers onto the rungs of a job ladder. There is no direct evidence of learning about workers' unobserved abilities but the analysis reveals that unmeasured ability is an important factor driving wage dynamics. Finally, job rank effects remain significant even after controlling for measured and unmeasured characteristics.

Rank Regressions, Wage Distributions and the Gender Gap.

In this paper, we model the interactions between the distribution of male and female wages under the assumption that any change in the wage distribution of women must be offset by an opposite change in the wage distribution of men.

Wage Flexibility and Contract Structure in Germany

In this paper, we look at how labor market conditions at different points during the tenure of individuals with firms are correlated with current earnings. Using data on individuals from the German Socioeconomic Panel for the 1985-1994 period, we find that both the contemporaneous unemployment rate and prior values of the unemployment rate are significantly correlated with current earnings, contrary to results for the American labor market. Estimated elasticities vary between 9 and 15 percent for the elasticity of earnings with respect to current unemployment rates, and between 6 and 10 percent with respect to unemployment rates at the start of current firm tenure. Moreover, whereas local unemployment rates determine levels of earnings, national rates influence contemporaneous variations in earnings. We interpret this result as evidence that German unions do, in fact, bargain over wages and employment, but that models of individualistic contracts, such as the implicit contract model, may explain some of the observed wage drift and longer-term wage movements reasonably well. Furthermore, we explore the heterogeneity of contracts over a variety of worker and job characteristics. In particular, we find evidence that contracts differ across firm size and worker type. Workers of large firms are remarkably more insulated from the job market than workers for any other type of firm, indicating the importance of internal job markets.

Why Have Aggregate Skilled Hours Become So Cyclical Since the Mid-1980's?

This paper documents and discusses a dramatic change in the cyclical behavior of aggregate hours worked by individuals with a college degree (skilled workers) since the mid-1980’s. Using the CPS outgoing rotation data set for the period 1979:1-2003:4, we find that the volatility of aggregate skilled hours relative to the volatility of GDP has nearly tripled since 1984. In contrast, the cyclical properties of unskilled hours have remained essentially unchanged. We evaluate the extent to which a simple supply/demand model for skilled and unskilled labor with capital-skill complementarity in production can help explain this stylized fact. Within this framework, we identify three effects which would lead to an increase in the relative volatility of skilled hours: (i) a reduction in the degree of capital-skill complementarity, (ii) a reduction in the absolute volatility of GDP (and unskilled hours), and (iii) an increase in the level of capital equipment relative to skilled labor. We provide empirical evidence in support of each of these effects. Our conclusion is that these three mechanisms can jointly explain about sixty percent of the observed increase in the relative volatility of skilled labor. The reduction in the degree of capital-skill complementarity contributes the most to this result.