Sistema de apoio à decisão para a classificação de risco em projectos de tecnologias de informação

O trabalho que a seguir se apresenta tem como objectivo descrever a criação de um modelo que sirva de suporte a um sistema de apoio à decisão sobre o risco inerente à execução de projectos na área das Tecnologias de Informação (TI) recorrendo a técnicas de mineração de dados. Durante o ciclo de vida de um projecto, existem inúmeros factores que contribuem para o seu sucesso ou insucesso. A responsabilidade de monitorizar, antever e mitigar esses factores recai sobre o Gestor de Projecto. A gestão de projectos é uma tarefa difícil e dispendiosa, consome muitos recursos, depende de numerosas variáveis e, muitas vezes, até da própria experiência do Gestor de Projecto. Ao ser confrontado com as previsões de duração e de esforço para a execução de uma determinada tarefa, o Gestor de Projecto, exceptuando a sua percepção e intuição pessoal, não tem um modo objectivo de medir a plausibilidade dos valores que lhe são apresentados pelo eventual executor da tarefa. As referidas previsões são fundamentais para a organização, pois sobre elas são tomadas as decisões de planeamento global estratégico corporativo, de execução, de adiamento, de cancelamento, de adjudicação, de renegociação de âmbito, de adjudicação externa, entre outros. Esta propensão para o desvio, quando detectada numa fase inicial, pode ajudar a gerir melhor o risco associado à Gestão de Projectos. O sucesso de cada projecto terminado foi qualificado tendo em conta a ponderação de três factores: o desvio ao orçamentado, o desvio ao planeado e o desvio ao especificado. Analisando os projectos decorridos, e correlacionando alguns dos seus atributos com o seu grau de sucesso o modelo classifica, qualitativamente, um novo projecto quanto ao seu risco. Neste contexto o risco representa o grau de afastamento do projecto ao sucesso. Recorrendo a algoritmos de mineração de dados, tais como, árvores de classificação e redes neuronais, descreve-se o desenvolvimento de um modelo que suporta um sistema de apoio à decisão baseado na classificação de novos projectos. Os modelos são o resultado de um extensivo conjunto de testes de validação onde se procuram e refinam os indicadores que melhor caracterizam os atributos de um projecto e que mais influenciam o risco. Como suporte tecnológico para o desenvolvimento e teste foi utilizada a ferramenta Weka 3. Uma boa utilização do modelo proposto possibilitará a criação de planos de contingência mais detalhados e uma gestão mais próxima para projectos que apresentem uma maior propensão para o risco. Assim, o resultado final pretende constituir mais uma ferramenta à disposição do Gestor de Projecto.

Developing Supply Chain Process Management and Measurement in Global Manufacturing Company

The objective of this research is to create a current state analysis of pulp supply chain processes from production planning to deliveries to customers. A cross-functional flowchart is being used to model these processes. These models help finding key performance indicators (KPIs) which enable examinations of the supply chain efficiency. Supply chain measures in different processes reveal the changes need processes that affect the whole supply chain and its efficiency and competitiveness. Structure of pulp supply chain differs from most of the other supply chains. The fact that there are big volumes of bulk products, small product variations and supply forecasts are made for the year ahead make the difference. This factor brings different benefits but also challenges when developing supply chain. This thesis divides pulp supply chain in three different main categories: production planning, warehousing and transportation. It provides tools for estimating the functionality of supply chain as well as developing the efficiency for different functions of supply chain. By having a better understanding of supply chain processes and measurement the whole supply chain structure can be developed significantly.

The use of key indicators to assess Latin America’s long-term economic performance

Through the astute analysis of official statistics, we can gather a more complete picture of the economic performance of a given country, and understand more fully what have been its drivers, leading to a more effective use of national resources and a more efficient design of policy options. However, the myriad of information and numerical data across the system of macroeconomic statistics can be challenging to interpret in a straightforward manner. In order to synthetically assess economic performance across countries in Latin America we propose the use of a composite indicator, which builds upon the methodology of Khramov and Lee (2013) and incorporates key indicators from each of the pillars of macroeconomic statistics: the System of National Accounts, the Balance of Payments Statistics, Monetary and Financial Statistics and Public Finance Statistics. Through a composite examination of key statistical indicators in each country across their long-term trends, we can more fully understand the underlying macroeconomic dynamics.

Development of quantitative methods for sustainability assessment in process industry

The increasing aversion to technological risks of the society requires the development of inherently safer and environmentally friendlier processes, besides assuring the economic competitiveness of the industrial activities. The different forms of impact (e.g. environmental, economic and societal) are frequently characterized by conflicting reduction strategies and must be holistically taken into account in order to identify the optimal solutions in process design. Though the literature reports an extensive discussion of strategies and specific principles, quantitative assessment tools are required to identify the marginal improvements in alternative design options, to allow the trade-off among contradictory aspects and to prevent the “risk shift”. In the present work a set of integrated quantitative tools for design assessment (i.e. design support system) was developed. The tools were specifically dedicated to the implementation of sustainability and inherent safety in process and plant design activities, with respect to chemical and industrial processes in which substances dangerous for humans and environment are used or stored. The tools were mainly devoted to the application in the stages of “conceptual” and “basic design”, when the project is still open to changes (due to the large number of degrees of freedom) which may comprise of strategies to improve sustainability and inherent safety. The set of developed tools includes different phases of the design activities, all through the lifecycle of a project (inventories, process flow diagrams, preliminary plant lay-out plans). The development of such tools gives a substantial contribution to fill the present gap in the availability of sound supports for implementing safety and sustainability in early phases of process design. The proposed decision support system was based on the development of a set of leading key performance indicators (KPIs), which ensure the assessment of economic, societal and environmental impacts of a process (i.e. sustainability profile). The KPIs were based on impact models (also complex), but are easy and swift in the practical application. Their full evaluation is possible also starting from the limited data available during early process design. Innovative reference criteria were developed to compare and aggregate the KPIs on the basis of the actual sitespecific impact burden and the sustainability policy. Particular attention was devoted to the development of reliable criteria and tools for the assessment of inherent safety in different stages of the project lifecycle. The assessment follows an innovative approach in the analysis of inherent safety, based on both the calculation of the expected consequences of potential accidents and the evaluation of the hazards related to equipment. The methodology overrides several problems present in the previous methods proposed for quantitative inherent safety assessment (use of arbitrary indexes, subjective judgement, build-in assumptions, etc.). A specific procedure was defined for the assessment of the hazards related to the formations of undesired substances in chemical systems undergoing “out of control” conditions. In the assessment of layout plans, “ad hoc” tools were developed to account for the hazard of domino escalations and the safety economics. The effectiveness and value of the tools were demonstrated by the application to a large number of case studies concerning different kinds of design activities (choice of materials, design of the process, of the plant, of the layout) and different types of processes/plants (chemical industry, storage facilities, waste disposal). An experimental survey (analysis of the thermal stability of isomers of nitrobenzaldehyde) provided the input data necessary to demonstrate the method for inherent safety assessment of materials.

Experience facilitation process e o posicionamento estratégico de unidades hoteleiras

A indústria hoteleira é hoje reconhecida como uma indústria global, com produtores e consumidores espalhados por todo o mundo. Um dos grandes desafios dos nossos dias passa por maximizar a satisfação do seu consumidor e simultaneamente garantir um crescimento exponencial da procura face à concorrência. O EFP (Experience Facilitation Process) tem levantado novos desafios na gestão do turismo e da hotelaria, associado aos novos processos de gestão de negócios turísticos e à emergência de novos produtos e atributos valorizados pelos turistas. O presente estudo visa compreender até que ponto os hotéis facilitam a experiência turística e o usufruto dos seus hóspedes, maximizando a sua satisfação. Pretende-se, neste contexto, perceber se o posicionamento estratégico preconizado pelo sector coloca o enfase no elemento mais importante de uma organização, o cliente. Para o efeito, é proposto um modelo em que a EFP (Experience Facilitation Process) influencia a recomendação do hotel. O EFP é por sua vez explicado pela easiness in performance, pela tecnologia adotada, pela qualidade de F&B e pelas facilidades. O modelo foi empiricamente testado através da aplicação de uma amostra de 299 questionários recolhidos online. Tendo o modelo conceptual sido testado a partir dum modelo de equações estruturais, por recurso ao AMOS 21. Os resultados indicam que a perceção de experiência facilitada se traduz em indicadores tangíveis tais como a easiness in performance e a tecnologia. A facilitação da experiência determina a recomendação, ainda que esta recomendação seja modesta. As implicações teóricas e de gestão foram discutidas mostrando que a facilitação da experiência é um processo determinante para a satisfação dos turistas. Estes resultados empíricos, ainda que não generalizáveis, revelam a complexidade do serviço hoteleiro ao mesmo tempo que emprestam à análise do posicionamento competitivo uma nova perspetiva.

Emergent strategy and the measurement of performance:the formulation of performance indicators at the microlevel

This article presents some evidence on an aspect of the design of a strategic control system, at the microlevel, within a single organization. The research we report used an ethnographic approach to provide an understanding of strategy formulation. Our aim is to contribute to an area of literature which is of increasing significance, but relatively underdeveloped in terms of the application of in-depth, field-research techniques. We take an intensive look at the manner in which performance measures are formulated, at the microlevel, within a single organization. The article presents, as an in-depth case analysis, the experience of a fisheries holding company in New Zealand. The article recounts the experiences of managers within the organization of the process of identification of such things as critical success factors and key performance indicators (KPIs) and, more broadly, the formulation of a strategic performance measurement system.

Developing and evaluating a methodology for business process improvement

Purpose – There appears to be an ever-insatiable demand from markets for organisations to improve their products and services. To meet this, there is a need to provide business process improvement (BPI) methodologies that are holistic, structured and procedural. Therefore, this paper describes research that has formed and tested a generic and practical methodology termed model-based and integrated process improvement (MIPI) to support the implementation of BPI; and to validate its effectiveness in organisations. This methodology has been created as an aid for practitioners within organisations. Design/methodology/approach – The research objectives were achieved by: reviewing and analysing current methodologies, and selecting a few frameworks against key performance indicators. Using a refined Delphi approach and semi-structured interview with the “experts” in the field. Intervention, case study and process research approach to evaluating a methodology. Findings – The BPI methodology was successfully formed and applied by the researcher and directly by the companies involved against the criteria of feasibility, usability and usefulness. Research limitations/implications – The paper has demonstrated a new knowledge on how to systematically assess a BPI methodology in practice. Practical implications – Model-based and integrated process improvement methodology (MIPI) methodology offers the practitioner (experienced and novice) a set of step-by-step aids necessary to make informed, consistent and efficient changes to business processes. Originality/value – The novelty of this research work is the creation of a holistic workbook-based methodology with relevant tools and techniques. It extends the capabilities of existing methodologies.

Fundamental Fairness in Sexual Misconduct Adjudications: Evaluating Private Universities for Due Process Rights in their Policies and Procedures

There is a national debate on how universities should respond to sexual assault, specifically the advantages and shortcomings of the campus adjudication Process. One major critique of university adjudication is that it does not provide the necessary due process rights to the accused and is therefore not fundamentally fair. This study seeks to assess this validity of this critique by seeing if sexual misconduct policies lack due process and if so, to what extent. This investigation is a comparative case study of 14 private higher education institutions, belonging to the Ivy Plus Society, analyzing their policy and procedure documents for indicators of due process. Findings show that schools are complying between 45% and 85% of due process indicators with an average of 65%. Colleges do lack due process rights and need to revise their policies and procedures to clearly present these rights. Key recommendations include guaranteeing a hearing procedure with impartial decision-makers and the opportunity to submit evidence and witnesses.

Advanced Business Simulations-Incorporating business and process execution data

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and their predictions are widely used by the enterprises for informed decision making. Nevertheless , a very important factor, which is generally overlooked, is that the top level strategic KPIs are actually driven by the operational level business processes. These two domains are, however, mostly segregated and analysed in silos with different Business Intelligence solutions. In this paper, we are proposing an approach for advanced Business Simulations, which converges the two domains by utilising process execution & business data, and concepts from Business Dynamics (BD) and Business Ontologies, to promote better system understanding and detailed KPI predictions. Our approach incorporates the automated creation of Causal Loop Diagrams, thus empowering the analyst to critically examine the complex dependencies hidden in the massive amounts of available enterprise data. We have further evaluated our proposed approach in the context of a retail use-case that involved verification of the automatically generated causal models by a domain expert.

Indicadores avançados para o investimento directo estrangeiro: aplicação ao caso português

RESUMO:O investimento directo estrangeiro tem sido um dos factores com maior importância, no crescimento económico dos países em desenvolvimento, por contribuir para financiar o défice da balança corrente com o exterior, em particular a balança comercial. Num âmbito mais microeconómico é um forte gerador de emprego, proporciona avanços tecnológicos importantes, permitindo a partilha de conhecimentos das tecnologias, o conhecimento de novas formas de gestão e novas formas de marketing. Este trabalho tem como objectivo principal, identificar potenciais variáveis como indicadores avançados para o investimento directo estrangeiro, de modo a antecipar possíveis tendências para a sua evolução. Para alcançar este propósito recorreu-se aos Modelos Autoregressivos Vectoriais (VAR) e à causalidade de Granger com base em dados mensais para o período de Janeiro de 1996 a Setembro de 2010. Foram consideradas variáveis essenvialmente macroeconómicas, tanto do lado da economia receptora como dos países investidores, de modo a reflectirem a actividade económica ao longo do período de estudo. ABSTRACT: The foreign direct investment, has been one of the main factors in the economical development for the countries that are in a process of developing, because it allows the generation of new investments and generate money from the return of the investment, as well as it creates new opportunities for the employment. It allows important technologic advances with the share of the technology Knowledge as well new ways to learn marketing management and enterprise management. This work/research, aims to identify potential variables as advanced indicators for the foreign direct investment, in order to anticipate possible trends of their evolution. To achieve this goal, Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR) and Granger causality based on based on monthly data for the period January between 1996 and September of 2010, were used. Essentially macroeconomic variables were considered, on both the host economy and the countries investors in order to reflect the economic activity throughout the study period.

A comparative benchmarking analysis of main Iberian container terminals: a DEA approach

Benchmarking is an important tool to organisations to improve their productivity, product quality, process efficiency or services. From Benchmarking the organisations could compare their performance with competitors and identify their strengths and weaknesses. This study intends to do a benchmarking analysis on the main Iberian Sea ports with a special focus on their container terminals efficiency. To attain this, the DEA (data envelopment analysis) is used since it is considered by several researchers as the most effective method to quantify a set of key performance indicators. In order to reach a more reliable diagnosis tool the DEA is used together with the data mining in comparing the sea ports operational data of container terminals during 2007.Taking into account that sea ports are global logistics networks the performance evaluation is essential to an effective decision making in order to improve their efficiency and, therefore, their competitiveness.

An information model for lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain management

Dissertação para a obtenção de Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

An ANP model to support decision-making in a Portuguese pharmaceutical supply chain

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Using balanced scorecards to evaluate the data warehouse system utility

Dissertação de mestrado em Systems Engineering

Step towards to improve the voluntary interruption of pregnancy by means of business intelligence

With the implementation of Information and Communication Technologies in the health sector, it became possible the existence of an electronic record of information for patients, enabling the storage and the availability of their information in databases. However, without the implementation of a Business Intelligence (BI) system, this information has no value. Thus, the major motivation of this paper is to create a decision support system that allows the transformation of information into knowledge, giving usability to the stored data. The particular case addressed in this chapter is the Centro Materno Infantil do Norte, in particular the Voluntary Interruption of Pregnancy unit. With the creation of a BI system for this module, it is possible to design an interoperable, pervasive and real-time platform to support the decision-making process of health professionals, based on cases that occurred. Furthermore, this platform enables the automation of the process for obtaining key performance indicators that are presented annually by this health institution. In this chapter, the BI system implemented in the VIP unity in CMIN, some of the KPIs evaluated as well as the benefits of this implementation are presented.