Late Holocene air temperature variability reconstructed from the sediments of Laguna Escondida, Patagonia, Chile (45 degrees 30 ' S)

Climate and environmental reconstructions from natural archives are important for the interpretation of current climatic change. Few quantitative high-resolution reconstructions exist for South America which is the only land mass extending from the tropics to the southern high latitudes at 56°S. We analyzed sediment cores from two adjacent lakes in Northern Chilean Patagonia, Lago Castor (45°36′S, 71°47′W) and Laguna Escondida (45°31′S, 71°49′W). Radiometric dating (210Pb, 137Cs, 14C-AMS) suggests that the cores reach back to c. 900 BC (Laguna Escondida) and c. 1900 BC (Lago Castor). Both lakes show similarities and reproducibility in sedimentation rate changes and tephra layer deposition. We found eight macroscopic tephras (0.2–5.5 cm thick) dated at 1950 BC, 1700 BC, at 300 BC, 50 BC, 90 AD, 160 AD, 400 AD and at 900 AD. These can be used as regional time-synchronous stratigraphic markers. The two thickest tephras represent known well-dated explosive eruptions of Hudson volcano around 1950 and 300 BC. Biogenic silica flux revealed in both lakes a climate signal and correlation with annual temperature reanalysis data (calibration 1900–2006 AD; Lago Castor r = 0.37; Laguna Escondida r = 0.42, seven years filtered data). We used a linear inverse regression plus scaling model for calibration and leave-one-out cross-validation (RMSEv = 0.56 °C) to reconstruct sub decadal-scale temperature variability for Laguna Escondida back to AD 400. The lower part of the core from Laguna Escondida prior to AD 400 and the core of Lago Castor are strongly influenced by primary and secondary tephras and, therefore, not used for the temperature reconstruction. The temperature reconstruction from Laguna Escondida shows cold conditions in the 5th century (relative to the 20th century mean), warmer temperatures from AD 600 to AD 1150 and colder temperatures from AD 1200 to AD 1450. From AD 1450 to AD 1700 our reconstruction shows a period with stronger variability and on average higher values than the 20th century mean. Until AD 1900 the temperature values decrease but stay slightly above the 20th century mean. Most of the centennial-scale features are reproduced in the few other natural climate archives in the region. The early onset of cool conditions from c. AD 1200 onward seems to be confirmed for this region.

Remote sensing of volcanic plumes using the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER).

The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) has been used to quantify SO2 emissions from passively degassing volcanoes. This dissertation explores ASTER’s capability to detect SO2 with satellite validation, enhancement techniques and extensive processing of images at a variety of volcanoes. ASTER is compared to the Mini UV Spectrometer (MUSe), a ground based instrument, to determine if reasonable SO2 fluxes can be quantified from a plume emitted from Lascar, Chile. The two sensors were in good agreement with ASTER proving to be a reliable detector of SO2. ASTER illustrated the advantages of imaging a plume in 2D, with better temporal resolution than the MUSe. SO2 plumes in ASTER imagery are not always discernible in the raw TIR data. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Decorrelation Stretch (DCS) enhancement techniques were compared to determine how well they highlight a variety of volcanic plumes. DCS produced a consistent output and the composition of the plumes was easy to identify from explosive eruptions. As the plumes became smaller and lower in altitude they became harder to distinguish using DCS. PCA proved to be better at identifying smaller low altitude plumes. ASTER was used to investigate SO2 emissions at Lascar, Chile. Activity at Lascar has been characterized by cyclic behavior and persistent degassing (Matthews et al. 1997). Previous studies at Lascar have primarily focused on changes in thermal infrared anomalies, neglecting gas emissions. Using the SO2 data along with changes in thermal anomalies and visual observations it is evident that Lascar is at the end an eruptive cycle that began in 1993. Declining gas emissions and crater temperatures suggest that the conduit is sealing. ASTER and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) were used to determine the annual contribution of SO2 to the troposphere from the Central and South American volcanic arcs between 2000 and 2011. Fluxes of 3.4 Tg/a for Central America and 3.7 Tg/a for South America were calculated. The detection limits of ASTER were explored. The results a proved to be interesting, with plumes from many of the high emitting volcanoes, such as Villarrica, Chile, not being detected by ASTER.

A tephrostratigraphic record for the last glacial-interglacial cycle from Lake Ohrid, Albania and Macedonia

ABSTRACT: Here we present a tephrostratigraphic record (core Co1202) recovered from the northeastern part of Lake Ohrid (Republics of Macedonia and Albania) reaching back to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. Overall ten horizons (OT0702-1 to OT0702-10) containing volcanic tephra have been recognised throughout the 14.94m long sediment succession. Four tephra layers were visible at macroscopic inspection (OT0702-4, OT0702-6, OT0702-8 and OT0702-9), while the remaining six are cryptotephras (OT0702-1, OT0702-2, OT0702-3, OT0702-5, OT0702-7 and OT0702-10) identified from peaks in K, Zr and Sr intensities, magnetic susceptibility measurements, and washing and sieving of the sediments. Glass shards of tephra layers and cryptotephras were analysed with respect to their major element composition, and correlated to explosive eruptions of Italian volcanoes. The stratigraphy and the major element composition of tephra layers and cryptotephras allowed the correlation of OT0702-1 to AD 472 or AD 512 eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius, OT0702-2 to the FL eruption of Mount Etna, OT0702-3 to the Mercato from Somma-Vesuvius, OT0702-4 to SMP1-e/Y-3 eruption from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702-5 to the Codola eruption (Somma-Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei), OT0702-6 to the Campanian Ignimbrite/Y-5 from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702- 7 to the Green Tuff/Y-6 eruption from Pantelleria Island, OT0702-8 to the X-5 eruption probably originating from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702-9 to the X-6 eruption of generic Campanian origin, and OT0702-10 to the P-11 eruption from Pantelleria Island. The fairly well-known ages of these tephra layers and parent eruptions provide new data on the dispersal and deposition of these tephras and, furthermore, allow the establishment of a chronological framework for core Co1202 for a first interpretation of major sedimentological changes.

Primary composition, alteration, and origin of Cretaceous volcaniclastic rocks at DSDP Site 89-585

An upper Aptian to middle Albian series of volcaniclastic rocks more than 300 m thick was drilled at Site 585 in the East Mariana Basin. On the basis of textural and compositional (bulk-rock chemistry, primary and secondary mineral phases) evidence, the volcaniclastic unit is subdivided into a lower (below 830 m sub-bottom) and an upper (about 670-760 m) sequence; the boundary in the interval between is uncertain owing to lack of samples. The rocks are dominantly former vitric basaltic tuffs and minor lapillistones with lesser amounts of crystals and basaltic lithic clasts. They are mixed with shallow-water carbonate debris (ooids, skeletal debris), and were transported by mass flows to their site of deposition. The lower sequence is mostly plagioclase- and olivine-phyric with lesser amounts of Ti-poor clinopyroxene. Mineralogical and bulk-rock chemical data indicate a tholeiitic composition slightly more enriched than N-MORB (normal mid-ocean ridge basalt). Transport was by debris flows from shallow-water sites, as indicated by admixed ooids. Volcanogenic particles are chiefly moderately vesicular to nonvesicular blocky shards (former sideromelane) and less angular tachylite with quench plagioclase and pyroxene, indicating generation of volcanic clasts predominantly by spalling and breakage of submarine pillow and/or sheet-flow lavas. The upper sequence is mainly clinopyroxene- and olivine-phyric with minor plagioclase. The more Ti-rich clinopyroxene and the bulk-rock analyses show that the moderately alkali basaltic composition throughout is more mafic than the basal tholeiitic sequence. Transport was by turbidity currents. Rounded epiclasts of crystalline basalts are more common than in the lower sequence, and, together with the occurrence of oxidized olivine pseudomorphs and vesicular tachylite, are taken as evidence of derivation from eroded subaerially exposed volcanics. Former sideromelane shards are more vesicular than in the lower sequence; vesicularity exceeds 60 vol.% in some clasts. The dominant clastic process is interpreted to be by shallow-water explosive eruptions. All rocks have undergone low-temperature alteration; the dominant secondary phases are "palagonite," chlorite/smectite mixed minerals, analcite, and chabazite. Smectite, chlorite, and natrolite occur in minor amounts. Phillipsite is recognized as an early alteration product, now replaced by other zeolites. During alteration, the rocks have lost up to 50% of their Ca, compared with a fresh shard and fresh glass inclusions in primary minerals, but have gained much less K, Rb, and Ba than expected, indicating rapid deposition prior to significant seafloor weathering.

Geochemistry of marin ash layers and epiclastic rocks from the Kerguelen Plateau

Epiclastic volcanogenic rocks recovered from the Kerguelen Plateau during Ocean Drilling Program Legs 119 and 120 comprise (pre-)Cenomanian(?) claystones (52 m thick, Site 750); a Turonian(?) basaltic pebble conglomerate (1.2 m thick, Site 748; Danian mass flows (45 m thick, Site 747); and volcanogenic debris flows of Quaternary age at Site 736 (clastic apron of Kerguelen Island). Pyroclastic rocks comprise numerous Oligocene to Quaternary marine ash layers. The epiclastic sediments with transitional mid-ocean-ridge basalt (T-MORB) origin indicate weathering (Site 750) and erosion (Site 747) of Early Cretaceous T-MORB from a then-emergent Kerguelen Plateau, connected to Late Cretaceous tectonic events. The basal pebble conglomerate of Site 748 has an oceanic-island basalt (OIB) composition and denotes erosion and reworking of seamount to oceanic-island-type volcanic sources. The vitric- to crystal-rich marine ash layers are a few centimeters thick, have rather uniform grain sizes around 60 ± 40 µm, and are a result of Plinian eruptions. Crystal-poor silicic vitric ashes may also represent co-ignimbrite ashes. The ash layers have bimodal, basaltic, and silicic compositions with a few intermediate shards. The basaltic ashes are evolved high-titanium T-MORB; a few grains in a silicic pumice lapilli layer have a low-titanium basaltic composition. The silicic ashes comprise trachytic and rhyolitic glass shards belonging to a high-K series, except for a few low-K glasses admixed to a basaltic ash layer. Feldspar and clinopyroxene compositions fit the glass chemistry: high-Ti tholeiite-basaltic glasses have Plagioclase of An40-80 and pigeonite to augite clinopyroxene compositions. Silicic ashes have K-rich anorthoclase and minor Plagioclase around An20 and ferriaugitic to hedenbergitic clinopyroxene compositions. The line of magmatic evolution for the glass shards is not compatible with simple two-end member (high-Ti T-MORB and high-K rhyolite) mixing, but favors successive Ca-Mg-Fe pyroxene, Ti magnetite, and apatite fractionation, and K-rich alkali feldspar fractionation in trachytic magmas to yield rhyolitic compositions. Plagioclase fractionation occurs throughout. This qualitative model is in basic accordance with the observed mineral assemblage. However, as the time span for explosive volcanism spans >30 m.y., this basic model cannot comply with fractional crystallization in a single magma reservoir. The ash layers resulted from highly explosive eruptions on Kerguelen and, with less probability, Heard islands since the Oligocene. The explosive history starts with widespread Oligocene basaltic ash layers that indicate sea-level or subaerial volcanism on the Northern Kerguelen Plateau. After a hiatus of 24 m.y.(?), explosive magmatic activity was vigorously renewed in the late Miocene with more silicic eruptions. A peak in explosive activity is inferred for the Pliocene-Pleistocene. The composition and evolution of Kerguelen Plateau ash layers resemble those from other hotspot-induced, oceanic-island realms such as Iceland and Jan Mayen in the North Atlantic, and the Canary Islands archipelago in the Central Atlantic.

Chemical analysis of ash layers in ODP Leg 104 holes

Numerous fresh ash layers comprise about 0.3% by volume of Neogene to Holocene sediments drilled at Leg 104 Sites 642 and 643 (Vøring Plateau, North Atlantic). Median grain sizes of the ashes are about 100 /µm and maximum grain sizes range up to 1200 µm. Rhyolitic pumice shards dominate, with minor bubble wall shards. Basaltic shards are poorly vesicular and blocky or round. Phenocrystic plagioclase, zircon, and clinopyroxene occur in the rhyolitic, plagioclase, and clinopyroxene phenocrysts and basaltic lithics in the basaltic tephra. Quartz, amphibole, clinozoisite, and rutile are interpreted as xenocrysts. All ash layers are well-sorted and represent distal fallout from major explosive eruptions. Most ashes are rhyolitic (high-K and low-K) in composition, some are bimodal (tholeiitic and rhyolitic). Early Miocene tephra is dominantly basaltic. Iceland is inferred to be the likely source region for most ashes. Late Miocene high-K rhyolites may have originated from the K-rich Jan Mayen magmatic province. One Quaternary layer with biotite and alkali feldspar phenocrysts may have been derived from Jan Mayen Island. Four individual Pliocene to Holocene ash layers from Sites 642 and 643 can be correlated fairly well. Upper Miocene layers are tentatively correlated as a sequence between Sites 642 and 643. Average calculated layer frequencies are about three layers/m.y. through the Pliocene and Pleistocene and five to eight layers per m.y. through the middle and late Miocene, suggesting rather continuous volcanic activity in the North Atlantic. Episodic magmatic activity during Neogene epochs in this part of the North Atlantic, as postulated in the literature, cannot be confirmed.

Grain size composition and geochemistry of volcaniclastic sediments in the Lau Basin

Early Pliocene to Pleistocene volcaniclastic sediments recovered during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 135 from Sites 834 to 839 in the Lau Basin show a wide range of chemical and mineralogical compositions extending the spectrum previously known from the Lau Basin, Lau Ridge and Tofua Arc. The following major types of volcaniclastics have been distinguished: (1) primary fallout ashes originating from eruptions on land, (2) epiclastic deposits that resulted from subaerial and submarine eruptions, (3) subaqueous fallout and pyroclastic flow deposits resulting from explosive submarine eruptions, and (4) hyaloclastites resulting from mechanical fragmentation and spalling of chilled margins of submarine pillow tubes and sheet-lava flows. Vitric shards are mostly basaltic andesitic to rhyolitic and broadly follow two major trends in terms of K2O enrichment: a low-K series (LKS) with about 1 wt% K2O at 70 wt% SiO2, and a very low-K series (VLKS) with only about 0.5 wt% K2O at 70 wt% SiO2. Sites 834 and 835 on "old" backarc basin crust, >4.2 and 3.4 m.y. old, comprise LKS rhyolites >3.3 m.y. old. Calc-alkaline basaltic turbidites originating from the Lau Ridge flowed in at 3.3 Ma. In the period from 3.3 to 2.4 Ma basaltic andesitic to rhyolitic, fine-grained LKS and VLKS volcaniclastics were deposited by turbidity currents and subaerial fallout. Three thin, discrete fallout layers (2.4-3.2 m.y. old) with high-K calc-alkaline compositions probably erupted in New Zealand. Volcaniclastics from Site 836, all <0.6 m.y. old, make up 24% of the sediments and comprise local basaltic andesitic to andesitic hyaloclastites with low Ba/Zr ratios of 0.9 to 1.4 and polymict andesitic sediments with Ba/Zr ratios of up to 5.5, containing clasts altered to lower greenschist facies. In Sites 837-839, drilled on young crust (1.8-2.1 m.y. old), volcaniclastics make up 45%-64% of the total sediment. Glass compositions are often bimodal with a mafic and a rhyolitic population. Large-volume rhyolitic, silt- to lapilli-sized volcaniclastics are interpreted as pyroclastic flows from explosive eruptions on a seamount 25-50 km away from the sites. Ba/Zr ratios are 2 to 4, partially overlapping with some Lau Basin basement lavas that show an "arc" signature, and they can reach values >5 in thin volcaniclastic layers <0.6 m.y. old.

Petrology and geochemistry of sideromelane glass shards from Pleistocene as layers north and south of Gran Canaria

Major elements, S, F, Cl concentrations and relative proportions of S6+ to total S were analyzed with electron microprobe in sideromelane glass shards from Pleistocene volcaniclastic sediments drilled during ODP Leg 157. Glasses are moderately to strongly evolved and represent a spectrum from alkali basalt, basanite and nephelinite through hawaiite, mugearite and tephrite to phonolitic tephrite. Measured S6+/SumS (0.03±0.98) and calculated Fe2+/Fe3+ (2.5±5.8) ratios in the melt yield preeruptive redox conditions ranging from NNO-1.4 to NNO+2.1. The morphology of the glass shards, variations of S and Cl concentrations (0.010±0.127 wt% S, 0.018±0.129 wt% Cl), calculated preeruptive temperatures (1030±1200 °C) and oxygen fugacities suggest that glasses deposited even within the same ash layers have diverse origin and may have resulted from both submarine and subaerial eruptions. Most vesicle-free glasses are characterized by high concentrations of S and represent undegassed or slightly degassed submarine lavas, whereas vesiculated glasses with low concentrations of S and Cl are strongly degassed and can be ascribed to the eruptions in shallow water or on land. Sideromelane glass shards at Sites 953 are thought to have resulted from submarine eruptions northeast of Gran Canaria, glasses at Site 954 represent mostly volcaniclastic material of shallow water submarine and subaerial eruptions on Gran Canaria and Tenerife, and glasses deposited at Site 956 resulted from submarine or explosive eruptions on Tenerife.

Volcanic setting of the Bajo de la Alumbrera porphyry Cu-Au deposit, Farallon Negro Volcanics, Northwest Argentina

The late Miocene Farallon Negro volcanics, comprising basaltic to rhyodacitic volcano-sedimentary rocks, host the Bajo de la Alumbrera porphyry copper-gold deposit in northwest Argentina. Early studies of the geology of the district have underpinned the general model for porphyry ore deposits where hydrothermal alteration and mineralization develop in and around porphyritic intrusions emplaced at shallow depths (2.5-3.5 km) into stratovolcanic assemblages. The Farallon Negro succession is dominated by thick sequences of volcano-sedimentary breccias, with lavas forming a minor component volumetrically. These volcaniclastic rocks conformably overlie crystalline basement-derived sedimentary rocks deposited in a developing foreland basin southeast of the Puna-Altiplano plateau. Within the Farallon Negro volcanics, volcanogenic accumulations evolved from early mafic to intermediate and silicic compositions. The younger and more silicic rocks are demonstrably coeval and comagmatic with the earliest group of mineralized porphyritic intrusions at Bajo de la Alumbrera. Our analysis of the volcanic stratigraphy and facies architecture of the Farallon Negro volcanics indicates that volcanic eruptions evolved from effusive to mixed effusive and explosive styles, as magma compositions changed to more intermediate and silicic compositions. Air early phase of mafic to intermediate voleanism was characterized by small synsedimentary intrusions with peperitic contacts, and lesser lava units scattered widely throughout the district, and interbedded with thick and extensive successions of coarse-grained sedimentary breccias. These sedimentary breccias formed from numerous debris- and hyperconcentrated flow events. A later phase of silicic volcanism included both effusive eruptions, forming several areally restricted lavas, and explosive eruptions, producing more widely dispersed (up to 5 kin) tuff units, some tip to 30-m thickness in proximal sections. Four key features of the volcanic stratigraphy suggest that the Farallon Negro volcanics need not simply record the construction of a large steep-sided polygenetic stratovolcano: (1) sheetlike, laterally continuous debris-flow and other coarse-grained sedimentary deposits are dominant, particularly in the lower sections; (2) mafic-intermediate composition lavas are volumetrically minor; (3) peperites are present throughout the sequence; and (4) fine-grained lacustrine sandstone-siltstone sequences occur in areas previously thought to be proximal to the summit region of the stratovolcano. Instead, the nature, distribution, and geometry of volcanic and volcaniclastic facies suggest that volcanism occurred as a relatively low relief, multiple-vent volcanic complex at the eastern edge of a broad, > 200-km-wide late Miocene volcanic belt and oil ail active foreland sedimentary basin to the Puna-Altiplano. Volcanism that occurred synchronously with the earliest stages of porphyry-related mineralization at Bajo de la Alumbrera apparently developed in an alluvial to ring plain setting that was distal to larger volcanic edifices.

Geochemistry of tephra from Lake Ohrid

Here we present a tephrostratigraphic record (core Co1202) recovered from the northeastern part of Lake Ohrid (Republics of Macedonia and Albania) reaching back to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. Overall ten horizons (OT0702-1 to OT0702-10) containing volcanic tephra have been recognised throughout the 14.94 m long sediment succession. Four tephra layers were visible at macroscopic inspection (OT0702-4, OT0702-6, OT0702-8 and OT0702-9), while the remaining six are cryptotephras (OT0702-1, OT0702-2, OT0702-3, OT0702-5, OT0702-7 and OT0702-10) identified from peaks in K, Zr and Sr intensities, magnetic susceptibility measurements, and washing and sieving of the sediments. Glass shards of tephra layers and cryptotephras were analysed with respect to their major element composition, and correlated to explosive eruptions of Italian volcanoes. The stratigraphy and the major element composition of tephra layers and cryptotephras allowed the correlation of OT0702-1 to AD 472 or AD 512 eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius, OT0702-2 to the FL eruption of Mount Etna, OT0702-3 to the Mercato from Somma-Vesuvius, OT0702-4 to SMP1-e/Y-3 eruption from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702-5 to the Codola eruption (Somma-Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei), OT0702-6 to the Campanian Ignimbrite/Y-5 from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702-7 to the Green Tuff/Y-6 eruption from Pantelleria Island, OT0702-8 to the X-5 eruption probably originating from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702-9 to the X-6 eruption of generic Campanian origin, and OT0702-10 to the P-11 eruption from Pantelleria Island. The fairly well-known ages of these tephra layers and parent eruptions provide new data on the dispersal and deposition of these tephras and, furthermore, allow the establishment of a chronological framework for core Co1202 for a first interpretation of major sedimentological changes.

GIS technologies and spatial organization patterns among hunter-gatherers: an archaeological case study from Southern Patagonia (southern South America)

This paper discusses some aspects of hunter-gatherer spatial organization in southern South Patagonia, in later times to 10,000 cal yr BP. Various methods of spatial analysis, elaborated with a Geographic Information System (GIS) were applied to the distributional pattern of archaeological sites with radiocarbon dates. The shift in the distributional pattern of chronological information was assessed in conjunction with other lines of evidence within a biogeographic framework. Accordingly, the varying degrees of occupation and integration of coastal and interior spaces in human spatial organization are explained in association with the adaptive strategies hunter-gatherers have used over time. Both are part of the same human response to changes in risk and uncertainty variability in the region in terms of resource availability and environmental dynamics.

Volcanic processes and human exposure as elements to build a risk model for Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala

The activity of Fuego volcano during the 1999 - 2013 eruptive episode is studied through field, remote sensing and observatory records. Mapping of the deposits allows quantifying the erupted volumes and areas affected by the largest eruptions during this period. A wide range of volcanic processes results in a diversity of products and associated deposits, including minor airfall tephra, rockfall avalanches, lava flows, and pyroclastic flows. The activity can be characterized by long term, low level background activity, and sporadic larger explosive eruptions. Although the background activity erupts lava and ash at a low rate (~ 0.1 m3/s), the persistence of such activity over time results in a significant contribution (~ 30%) to the eruption budget during the studied period. Larger eruptions produced the majority of the volume of products during the studied period, mainly during three large events (May 21, 1999, June 29, 2003, and September 13, 2012), mostly in the form of pyroclastic flows. A total volume of ~ 1.4 x 108 m3 was estimated from the mapped deposits and the estimated background eruption rate. Posterior remobilization of pyroclastic flow material by stream erosion in the highly confined Barranca channels leads to lahar generation, either by normal rainfall, or by extreme rainfall events. A reassessment of the types of products and volumes erupted during the decade of 1970's allows comparing the activity happening since 1999 with the older activity, and suggests that many of the eruptive phenomena at Fuego may have similar mechanisms, despite the differences in scale between. The deposits of large pyroclastic flows erupted during the 1970's are remarkably similar in appearance to the deposit of pyroclastic flows from the 1999 - 2013 period, despite their much larger volume; this is also the case for prehistoric eruptions. Radiocarbon dating of pyroclastic flow deposits suggests that Fuego has produced large eruptions many times during the last ~ 2 ka, including larger eruptions during the last 500 years, which has important hazard implications. A survey was conducted among the local residents living near to the volcano, about their expectations of possible future crises. The results show that people are aware of the risk they could face in case of a large eruption, and therefore they are willing to evacuate in such case. However, their decision to evacuate may also be influenced by the conditions in which the evacuation could take place. If the evacuation represents a potential loss of their livelihood or property they will be more hesitant to leave their villages during a large eruption. The prospect of facing hardship conditions during the evacuation and in the shelters may further cause reluctance to evacuate. A short discussion on some of the issues regarding risk assessment and management through an early warning system is presented in the last chapter.

Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 and climate to explosive volcanic eruptions

Impacts of low-latitude, explosive volcanic eruptions on climate and the carbon cycle are quantified by forcing a comprehensive, fully coupled carbon cycle-climate model with pulse-like stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes. The model represents the radiative and dynamical response of the climate system to volcanic eruptions and simulates a decrease of global and regional atmospheric surface temperature, regionally distinct changes in precipitation, a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a decrease in atmospheric CO2 after volcanic eruptions. The volcanic-induced cooling reduces overturning rates in tropical soils, which dominates over reduced litter input due to soil moisture decrease, resulting in higher land carbon inventories for several decades. The perturbation in the ocean carbon inventory changes sign from an initial weak carbon sink to a carbon source. Positive carbon and negative temperature anomalies in subsurface waters last up to several decades. The multi-decadal decrease in atmospheric CO2 yields a small additional radiative forcing that amplifies the cooling and perturbs the Earth System on longer time scales than the atmospheric residence time of volcanic aerosols. In addition, century-scale global warming simulations with and without volcanic eruptions over the historical period show that the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds for different physical and biogeochemical parameters such as steric sea level or dissolved oxygen. Results from a suite of sensitivity simulations with different magnitudes of stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes and from global warming simulations show that the carbon cycle-climate sensitivity γ, expressed as change in atmospheric CO2 per unit change in global mean surface temperature, depends on the magnitude and temporal evolution of the perturbation, and time scale of interest. On decadal time scales, modeled γ is several times larger for a Pinatubo-like eruption than for the industrial period and for a high emission, 21st century scenario.